With the Denard-show in full swing, the key for this season scope of wins (anywhere from 2 to 12) relies pretty heavily on our defensive performance. That being said... how would you rank our Big 10 opponent's offenses relative to UConn and ND - and what does that do for our expectations? Throw out all the other intangibles for now and try and see where we stand after two weeks worth of data.
Strength of Schedule is based on an average ranking of opponents played so far. FCS teams are given a rank of 120 for simplicity sake. I'd use the Blogpoll if they ranked all 120 teams but I just referenced (www.teamrankings.com) to get something quick and dirty. If there is something better I can use for reference in the coming weeks, let me know.
To get an Efficiency metric I first get a delta of SoS between each opponent and our opponent with the toughest SoS. (Currently ND at 47.5) For instance Iowa's metric would be arrived at by the following (120 - (85.5 - 47)) / 120. This is then multiplied by their PPG to give us an "effective" PPG weighted against competition relevant to Michigan. This metric is not meant to predict how many points our defense is going to yield to this team, but rather, it is a way of ranking the offenses that we will face relative to one another.
Conclusions Based on Not Enough Data
osu is the best offense we will face all year. BUT! We have already played some good offenses in UConn and ND! In fact the only other offenses that have numbers in that ballpark are Iowa and Wisconsin.
It will be very fun to see how these numbers stack up over the next two weeks while Michigan cleans up vs UMass and Bowling Green. I want to say for sure that this is an argument for at least eight wins, but I'll reserve judgment for two more weeks before I make that case. But for now, I think we can look at these numbers and add one more reason to the growing pile of why 2010 is NOT 2009!