Remaining BIG Schedule and our Path to a Title

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February 13th, 2013 at 1:48 AM
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YoungGeezy
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Joined: 08/01/2008
MGoPoints: 313
Remaining BIG Schedule and our Path to a Title

Tonight sucked and if I didn't do this, I'm not sure I would have been able to talk myself off the bridge. Today’s game was an atrocity, but Brady Hoke said it best: “The number one goal is to win a Big Ten Championship.”

Luckily it was only one game and only counts as one loss. If we can somehow put the pieces back together (a major IF after the past 4 games), we can still be in a position to win a B1G championship.

Humor me for a moment with this. Here are the current standings:
 

TEAM                      CONF     GB     OVR

#8 Michigan State   10-2      --       21-4
#1 Indiana                 9-2      0.5      21-3
#20 Wisconsin         8-3      1.5      17-7
#4 Michigan              8-4      2         21-4
#13 Ohio State         7-4      2.5      17-6
Minnesota                 5-6      4.5      17-7
Purdue                       5-6      4.5      12-12
Illinois                        4-7       5.5      17-8
Iowa                           4-7       5.5      15-9
Northwestern           4-7       5.5      13-11
Nebraska                  3-8       6.5      12-12
Penn State                0-11    9.5      8-15

 

After pulling up the remaining schedules of the top 5 B1G teams, I ran predictions on each matchups and labeled each matchup by 3 categories: Likely Win, Possible Win, Possible Loss (there were no Likely Losses). I then assigned three final conference records: Predicted Record, Worse Case Record and Best Case Record. Predicted basically assumed all Likely and Possible Wins Resulted in Wins, all Possible Losses resulted in Losses. Worst Case means the team only won the "Likely Wins", and Best Case means the team basically ran the table the rest of the season.

Obviously this isn’t a science, but I basically gave the benefit of the doubt to most of the good home teams (and was a little tough on Michigan). Even so, after seeing what other teams have to go through the rest of the year, I still see that championship in the distance if we win big games down the stretch.

*big games in bold
 

MSU (Currently 1st)

2 Likely Wins, 3 Possible Wins, 1 Possible Losses
Predicted Conference Record: 15-3
(Worst case 12-6, Best Case 16-2)

Feb 16 - @ NEB – Likely Win
Feb 19 - vs #1 IND – Possible Win
Feb 24 - @ #13 OSU – Possible Loss
Mar 2 - @ #4 MICH - Possible Win
Mar 7 - vs #20 WIS – Possible Win
Mar 10 - vs NW – Likely Win
 

Indiana (Currently 2nd)

3 Likely Wins, 3 Possible Wins, 1 Possible Loss
Predicted Conference Record: 15-3
(Worst case 12-6, Best Case 16-2)

Feb 13 - vs NEB - Likely Win
Feb 16 - vs PUR - Likely Win
Feb 19 - @ #8 MSU - Possible Loss
Feb 26 - @ MINN - Possible Win
Mar 2  - vs IOWA - Likely Win
Mar 5 - vs #13 OSU - Possible Win
Mar 10 - @ #4 MICH - Possible Win
 

Wisconsin (Currently 3rd)

4 Likely Wins, 1 Possible Wins, 2 Possible Losses
Predicted Conference Record: 13-5
(Worst case 12-6, Best Case 14-4)

Feb 14 - @ MINN – Possible Loss
Feb 17 - vs #13 OSU – Possible Win
Feb 20 - @ NW – Likely Win
Feb 26 - vs NEB – Likely Win
Mar 3  - vs PUR – Likely Win
Mar 7 - @ #8 MSU – Possible Loss
Mar 10 - @ PSU – Likely Win
 

Michigan (Currently 4th)

2 Likely Wins, 2 Possible Wins, 2 Possible Losses
Predicted Conference Record: 12-6
(Worst case 10-8, Best Case 14-4)

Feb 17 - vs PSU - Likely Win
Feb 24 - vs ILL - Possible Win
Feb 27 - @ PSU - Likely Win
Mar 2 - vs #8 MSU - Possible Loss
Mar 6 - @ PUR - Possible Win
Mar 10 - vs #1 IND - Possible Loss


Ohio (Currently 5th)
2 Likely Wins, 3 Possible Wins, 2 Possible Losses
Predicted Conference Record: 12-6 (Worst case 9-9, Best Case 14-4)

Feb 14 - vs NW - Likely Win
Feb 17 - @ #20 WIS – Possible Loss
Feb 20 - vs MINN – Possible Win
Feb 24 - vs #8 MSU – Possible Win
Feb 28 - @ NW – Likely Win
Mar 5 - @ #1 IND – Possible Loss
Mar 10 - vs ILL – Possible Win

 

What say you MGoPeople? We ready to do this, or what?

EDIT: Typos have been fixed

I LOVE MICHIGAN

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February 13th, 2013 at 1:57 AM | We (Score:2 Normal)
KaMGoBlue
Joined: 01/03/2011
MGoPoints: 442

are not winning the B1G. Lets just hope for a 3 seed.

February 13th, 2013 at 7:52 AM | We have four losses, all to (Score:5 Normal)
snarling wolverine
Joined: 12/14/2011
MGoPoints: 4843

We have four losses, all to excellent competition on the road.  We may have fallen off the 1-seed line but we don't have to "hope for a 3 seed."   We'll get our legs back and finish OK.

 

 

February 13th, 2013 at 12:38 PM | Ridiculous (Score:5 Normal)
saveferris
saveferris's picture
Joined: 07/02/2009
MGoPoints: 3221

We are not winning an outright B1G conference title, true, but we are far from dead in the title hunt.  MSU has to pretty much run the same schedule gauntlet we just finished.  So does Indiana.

Last night sucked, no dispute, but let's keep perspective.  We played the top 4 teams in the conference, 3 of the on the road, 2 games going to OT, over a 10 day period and we came out flat.  Sparty comes to Ann Arbor in about 3 weeks after running through the Indiana / OSU meat-grinder.  Let's see how spry they are then.

We've put ourselves in a bad spot, but it's far from over.

 

"...what do you say, is it the new Bluesmobile or what?"

"Fix the cigarette lighter."

February 13th, 2013 at 2:00 AM | Couple of clerical errors (Score:1)
MH20
MH20's picture
Joined: 10/30/2008
MGoPoints: 7576

I think based off of your lead-in explanation, you are predicting 12-6 for both Michigan and OSU?

(you have Mich at 12-5 and OSU at 12-8 for predicted conf record)

"The difference between a man and a boy is, a boy wants to grow up to be a fireman, but a man wants to grow up to be a giant monster fireman."

- Jack Handey

February 13th, 2013 at 3:01 AM | Thanks for pointing this out... (Score:1 Normal)
YoungGeezy
YoungGeezy's picture
Joined: 08/01/2008
MGoPoints: 313

fixed.

I LOVE MICHIGAN

February 13th, 2013 at 2:01 AM | i admire your enthusiasm, but (Score:5 Normal)
roosterbaan
roosterbaan's picture
Joined: 09/24/2012
MGoPoints: 173

i admire your enthusiasm, but i am having a hard time uncurling from fetal position

February 13th, 2013 at 2:04 AM | Hmmmm? (Score:1)
EZ Bud
Joined: 01/04/2011
MGoPoints: 484

Hmmmm?

This is MICHIGAN

February 13th, 2013 at 2:09 AM | Luckily it was only one game (Score:5 Normal)
M-Dog
M-Dog's picture
Joined: 07/06/2008
MGoPoints: 6534

Luckily it was only one game and only counts as one loss.

It should count as two losses.

 

M'Dog

February 13th, 2013 at 2:10 AM | Why anyone who watched this (Score:5 Normal)
michfan6060
michfan6060's picture
Joined: 01/22/2011
MGoPoints: 1247

Why anyone who watched this game would use the words Michigan and big ten title in the same sentence is beyond me.

Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.

- Vince Lombardi

February 13th, 2013 at 10:47 AM | OSU lost at Illinois by 19 (Score:2 Normal)
indywolverine
Joined: 11/19/2008
MGoPoints: 28

OSU lost at Illinois by 19 points. Duke lost at NC State by 8 then at Miami by 27. Bad games happen. This team took a night off. In all other games where they had a slow start, they fought back.

"But they're supposed to be getting better!" Well, other teams get better too. The competition isn't static.

February 13th, 2013 at 11:36 AM | This is a pattern though (Score:2 Normal)
I Like Burgers
I Like Burgers's picture
Joined: 10/06/2012
MGoPoints: 350

If it were just one game, that would be one thing.  But its not.  Michigan is now routinely getting absolutely crushed in the first halves of road games.  That's not a hallmark of a team just having an off night.  It a sign of some serious issues and good teams are picking up on them and exploiting those issues.

Hot dogs are the devil.

February 13th, 2013 at 12:11 PM | Fortunately, our only (Score:4 Normal)
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 29067

Fortunately, our only remaining road games are at PSU and at Purdue. 

 

February 13th, 2013 at 4:19 PM | ... (Score:1)
Bosch
Bosch's picture
Joined: 04/03/2009
MGoPoints: 4299

All right Lemmings. Bring the heat.

February 13th, 2013 at 2:13 AM | Luckily it was only one game (Score:-1 Trolling)
February 13th, 2013 at 2:13 AM | Few things (Score:5 Normal)
Kilgore Trout
Kilgore Trout's picture
Joined: 02/20/2009
MGoPoints: 1863

1. You have the um / Indiana game as a possible loss for both teams and seem to have counted it as a loss in each's predicted record.



2. Your predicted record for Ohio State has too many games.



3. I think a tie with msu and Indiana is very possible. I think um will get it together and win out. MSU will lose to Ohio State and Michigan. Indiana will lose to MSU and UM.

February 13th, 2013 at 3:02 AM | fixed... (Score:1 Normal)
YoungGeezy
YoungGeezy's picture
Joined: 08/01/2008
MGoPoints: 313

thanks

I LOVE MICHIGAN

February 13th, 2013 at 2:15 AM | After this game (Score:-1 Flamebait)
February 13th, 2013 at 2:37 AM | friendly advice: (Score:5 Normal)
Erik_in_Dayton
Erik_in_Dayton's picture
Joined: 12/03/2008
MGoPoints: 6798

Never expect a Final Four trip. The tournament just doesn't work that way...I went to KU as an undergrad, and I saw too many top-flight teams there lose early to ever take anything for granted. Every tournament win is a gift.

It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. -- Yogi Berra

                         

February 13th, 2013 at 7:48 AM | Keep in mind that in the last (Score:5 Normal)
snarling wolverine
Joined: 12/14/2011
MGoPoints: 4843

Keep in mind that in the last 10 days we've played four consecutive teams that are Sweet 16 caliber or better.  In the actual tournament, we'll face two inferior opponents in the first two rounds (and probably play them in Auburn Hills).  

February 13th, 2013 at 8:07 AM | At this point why shouldn't (Score:1 Normal)
acnumber1
acnumber1's picture
Joined: 10/19/2009
MGoPoints: 2661

At this point why shouldn't we assume MSU gets the Auburn Hills slot?  

5 4 3 2 1 Touchdown!

Touchdown Billy Taylor!

Touchdown Billy Taylor!

February 13th, 2013 at 8:21 AM | 2 slots (Score:5 Normal)
Kilgore Trout
Kilgore Trout's picture
Joined: 02/20/2009
MGoPoints: 1863

There are two preferred seeds at each location. Assuming no implosions, both should be there.

February 13th, 2013 at 11:49 AM | Currently, Indiana and MSU (Score:3 Normal)
Logan88
Joined: 01/05/2009
MGoPoints: 2995

Currently, Indiana and MSU would be favored to get those preferred seeds in the Midwest, wouldn't they?

We ARE Michigan....COME GET SOME!!!

February 13th, 2013 at 12:13 PM | Auburn Hills is not that (Score:2)
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 29067

They will probably be seeded in the Midwest regional (where the Sweet 16/Elite 8 are in Indy) but not necessarily to Auburn Hills for the opening rounds.  The first weekend's sites don't have anything to do with the geography of the "regions"  they're in.  We could be in the South region and play in the Palace.

February 13th, 2013 at 4:27 PM | Dayton and Lexington are also.... (Score:2 Normal)
Bosch
Bosch's picture
Joined: 04/03/2009
MGoPoints: 4299

....first second round host sites. Indiana would likely be shipped to one of those, as they are both closer to Bloomington than Detroit.

All right Lemmings. Bring the heat.

February 13th, 2013 at 9:02 AM | Our 4 losses (Score:2 Normal)
oHOWiHATEohioSTATE
Joined: 11/22/2010
MGoPoints: 1371

have 1 common them. They were all road games. The B1G tourney and NCAA tourney are all neutral site games. This team will be fine.

If an OSU fan divorces his wife are they still brother and sister?

February 13th, 2013 at 9:56 AM | All of our impressive wins (Score:4 Normal)
cheesheadwolverine
cheesheadwolverine's picture
Joined: 10/25/2008
MGoPoints: 2167

All of our impressive wins are at home. Tourney games are at neutral sites. See what I did there?

"I just hope Tressel doesn't fire me"

-Gordon Gee

February 13th, 2013 at 11:04 AM | Not true. (Score:5 Normal)
mfan_in_ohio
Joined: 01/26/2009
MGoPoints: 1905

Michigan beat Kansas State and Pitt, currently ranked 10th and 16th respectively, at a neutral site. Both are looking like 4/5 seeds. If you want to argue that they weren't ranked at the time, then I'll bring up the win at Minnesota.

Winning on the road is tough, especially when teams make half court heaves. Ask Duke, who had a similar experience at Miami. Or Indiana with Illinois. Or Florida with Arkansas. I'm fairly sure that Michigan is the only team in the country whose losses are all to currently ranked teams, and it is pretty rare that a team plays 4 straight games during the regular season against top 20 teams. By contrast, msu was coming off games against Illinois, Minnesota, and purdue, two of which were at home. Michigan just looked tired. The time off, especially being somewhat bookended by penn state games (like a vacation in itself), is going to be a big help, as will having the two toughest games left at home.

February 13th, 2013 at 2:15 AM | Yeah (Score:1)
uminks
uminks's picture
Joined: 11/10/2009
MGoPoints: 1454

After this game, I doubt we will win the B1G. May be we can be a two seed but I'm thinking our opponents know how to play against us now.

I'm worried about an early exit from the NCAA tournament as well. Unless our team defense can vastly improve over the next 3 weeks?

expect the best

February 13th, 2013 at 2:20 AM | Predictions (Score:3 Normal)
smwilliams
smwilliams's picture
Joined: 08/20/2010
MGoPoints: 1764

Here are my predictions...

MSU (Currently 1st)

Feb 16 - @ NEB – Likely Win (W)
Feb 19 - vs #1 IND – Possible Win (L)
Feb 24 - @ #13 OSU – Possible Loss (L)
Mar 2 - @ #4 MICH - Possible Loss (L)
Mar 7 - vs #20 WIS – Possible Win (W)
Mar 10 - vs NW – Likely Win (W)

FINAL RECORD: 13-5
 

Indiana (Currently 2nd)

Feb 13 - vs NEB - Likely Win (W)
Feb 16 - vs PUR - Likely Win (W)
Feb 19 - @ #8 MSU - Possible Loss (W)
Feb 26 - @ MINN - Possible Win (W)
Mar 2  - vs IOWA - Likely Win (W)
Mar 5 - vs #13 OSU - Possible Win (W)
Mar 10 - @ #4 MICH - Possible Loss (L)

FINAL RECORD: 15-3
 

Wisconsin (Currently 3rd)

Feb 14 - @ MINN – Possible Loss (L)
Feb 17 - vs #13 OSU – Possible Win (W)
Feb 20 - @ NW – Likely Win (W)
Feb 26 - vs NEB – Likely Win (W)
Mar 3  - vs PUR – Likely Win (W)
Mar 7 - @ #8 MSU – Possible Loss (L)
Mar 10 - @ PSU – Likely Win (W)

FINAL RECORD: 13-5
 

Michigan (Currently 4th)

Feb 17 - vs PSU - Likely Win (W)
Feb 24 - vs ILL - Possible Win (W)
Feb 27 - @ PSU - Likely Win (W)
Mar 2 - vs #8 MSU - Possible Loss (W)
Mar 6 - @ PUR - Possible Win (W)
Mar 10 - vs #1 IND - Possible Loss (W)

FINAL RECORD: 14-4

Ohio (Currently 5th)

Feb 14 - vs NW - Likely Win (W)
Feb 17 - @ #20 WIS – Possible Loss (L)
Feb 20 - vs MINN – Possible Win (W)
Feb 24 - vs #8 MSU – Possible Win (W)
Feb 28 - @ NW – Likely Win (W)
Mar 5 - @ #1 IND – Possible Loss (L)
Mar 10 - vs ILL – Possible Win (W)

FINAL RECORD: 12-6

SEEDS:
1.INDIANA
2.MICHIGAN
3.STATE
4.WISCONSIN
5.OHIO

 

February 13th, 2013 at 2:22 AM | It was one game, We played (Score:5 Normal)
snoopblue
snoopblue's picture
Joined: 11/11/2009
MGoPoints: 1890

It was one game, We played much worse than we are, and they played much better than they are. We played sloppy: made bad passes, couldnt catch good passes, miserable in transition offense, would leave spartans wide open in the paint and on the wings.Appling looked better than Burke, that is not the case on most nights. They do have the best defense in the Big Ten, and if their shots arent falling they have three guys down low that can score. We need to utilize the hook shot more with McGary, I'm not even sure JB knows how to teach it.

I don't care about winning the Big Ten after watching the game tonight. I care about getting at least a 2 seed now (sigh), fixing the issues this team clearly has and getting to the final four. A team with some size down low, an average point guard and solid defense can beat us in the tournament. That's just one bad matchup. Stauskas and Robinson need to come out of the funk, McGary needs to find an inside game, and Morgan needs to get healthy. We need to come out and fucking steamroll our next three games and show some fight

February 13th, 2013 at 9:06 AM | We played much worse than we (Score:0 Trolling)
February 13th, 2013 at 1:44 PM | We lose road games against (Score:4 Normal)
Soulfire21
Soulfire21's picture
Joined: 03/18/2010
MGoPoints: 3191

We lose road games against tough opponents.  So do most teams.

HAIL.

February 13th, 2013 at 2:30 PM | You are what your record says (Score:5 Normal)
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 29067

You are what your record says you are.

Our record is 21-4. Are you disappointed with that?

February 13th, 2013 at 11:42 AM | But its not just one game (Score:1)
I Like Burgers
I Like Burgers's picture
Joined: 10/06/2012
MGoPoints: 350

These are all the same things that have happened in previous games and the mistakes are becoming more frequent.  The team keeps moving further and further away from playing sound defense, rebounding, and running any semblence of an offense.  That's the troubling part.

Hot dogs are the devil.

February 13th, 2013 at 2:24 AM | Need to win (Score:2 Normal)
BlueinLansing
BlueinLansing's picture
Joined: 09/01/2009
MGoPoints: 4266

at Wisky or MSU.

 

Tonight UM's interior and defensive desire were exposed, out of UM"s hands now, thats what hurts

 

February 13th, 2013 at 2:39 AM | fyi we don't play at wisky (Score:1 Normal)
roosterbaan
roosterbaan's picture
Joined: 09/24/2012
MGoPoints: 173

fyi we don't play at wisky this year

February 13th, 2013 at 6:26 AM | needed* (Score:1 Normal)
BlueinLansing
BlueinLansing's picture
Joined: 09/01/2009
MGoPoints: 4266

sorry typo, UM needed to win at Wisky or MSU

February 13th, 2013 at 2:38 AM | We lost 3 count em 3 of the (Score:-1 Flamebait)
February 13th, 2013 at 8:49 AM | OK, you must not have (Score:5 Normal)
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 29067

OK, you must not have followed the basketball team for very long.  Last year was our first conference title in 26 years.  You don't turn up your nose at a league title just because some other team happens to share it.

 

February 13th, 2013 at 11:45 AM | I'd still rather be (Score:5 Normal)
goblueram
goblueram's picture
Joined: 08/18/2009
MGoPoints: 1962

I'd still rather be co-champion than lone runner-up.   

February 13th, 2013 at 2:50 AM | Of the competition, we (Score:1)
backtoblu
Joined: 09/04/2012
MGoPoints: 273

Of the competition, we probably have the easiest road ahead.  Guess we just have to wait and see if/when this team collects itself and gets back to it.

February 13th, 2013 at 2:57 AM | People need to stop (Score:5 Normal)
DKohn81
DKohn81's picture
Joined: 02/11/2012
MGoPoints: 743

People need to stop overreacting. We lost to a good team on the road and got our butts kicked. Nothing like Penn st to get it going again. MSU took the first of four at home, we will fine.

February 13th, 2013 at 3:05 AM | Front loaded schedule (Score:5 Normal)
funkywolve
Joined: 10/08/2008
MGoPoints: 1974

Looking at the OP it's pretty telling how tough the first 2/3's of UM's schedule in conference play was.  Illinois, Minnesota, OSU, Wisky, Indiana and MSU all on the road.  Every other team listed in the OP has at least 2 road games remaining against those 6 schools and Michigan except Wisconsin.

At the beginning of conference play everryone said there was 2 keys to winning the conference. 

1) Stealing a game or two on the road.  UM definitely didn't against MSU, Wisky and IU but they walked out of Minny and Illinois with wins.  The teams in 1st, 2nd and 3rd right now have the 3 biggest road wins so far in the conference - MSU in Madison, IU in Columbus and Wisky in Bloomington.  However, they all still have some tough road games especially if you throw in Wisky and IU still have to go to Minnesota.

2) holding serve at home.  So far of the 5 teams in the OP only Michigan and MSU have held serve at home.  IU lost to Wisy, Wisky lost to MSU and OSU lost to Indiana.

If UM can hold serve at home they'll probably be right in the thick of the conference race win Indiana comes to town for the final game of the regular season. 

February 13th, 2013 at 3:08 AM | Title (Score:-1 Flamebait)
February 13th, 2013 at 4:30 AM | Spatulas gonna spatulate. (Score:5 Normal)
토린
Joined: 04/07/2009
MGoPoints: 13909

Spatulas gonna spatulate.

February 13th, 2013 at 9:17 AM | Hope For The Best . . . Expect The Worst? (Score:2)
chatster
Joined: 09/14/2010
MGoPoints: 537

But remember this: Expectors Gonna Expectorate. 

 

February 13th, 2013 at 6:01 AM | Michigan basketball stinks (Score:-1 Flamebait)
February 13th, 2013 at 8:05 AM | Well, (Score:1)
padog
Joined: 08/27/2010
MGoPoints: 106

Well it was a road game.

February 13th, 2013 at 8:22 AM | Basketball is much different (Score:3 Normal)
oHOWiHATEohioSTATE
Joined: 11/22/2010
MGoPoints: 1371

than football. B1G championships are nice but long runs in March are the bigger goal. We had a tough stretch, but we have plenty time to group. Most teams have a blow out loss or two. We should win our next 3 games handedly. More importantly we can use the next 10 days or so to get back to fundamental basketball and work our freshmen out of their slumps.

If an OSU fan divorces his wife are they still brother and sister?

February 13th, 2013 at 8:37 AM | WTF? (Score:5 Normal)
wresler120
Joined: 10/17/2010
MGoPoints: 572

How do we go from everyone on the board talking about a 1 seed and final 4 to we ate a terrible basketball team? We got blown out yes. We looked really bad yes. But, be real with yourself and understand winning on the road against the #8 team, at the Breslin none the less is very difficult. I'm sure we will take this as a learning experience and regroup from here. But to start writing them off and marking us down as losses against MSU and Indy at home is ridiculous. I'm sure many of u will be saying u knew it all along when we do win.

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