are not winning the B1G. Lets just hope for a 3 seed.
Remaining BIG Schedule and our Path to a Title
We have four losses, all to excellent competition on the road. We may have fallen off the 1-seed line but we don't have to "hope for a 3 seed." We'll get our legs back and finish OK.
We are not winning an outright B1G conference title, true, but we are far from dead in the title hunt. MSU has to pretty much run the same schedule gauntlet we just finished. So does Indiana.
Last night sucked, no dispute, but let's keep perspective. We played the top 4 teams in the conference, 3 of the on the road, 2 games going to OT, over a 10 day period and we came out flat. Sparty comes to Ann Arbor in about 3 weeks after running through the Indiana / OSU meat-grinder. Let's see how spry they are then.
We've put ourselves in a bad spot, but it's far from over.
I think based off of your lead-in explanation, you are predicting 12-6 for both Michigan and OSU?
(you have Mich at 12-5 and OSU at 12-8 for predicted conf record)
i admire your enthusiasm, but i am having a hard time uncurling from fetal position
Luckily it was only one game and only counts as one loss.
It should count as two losses.
Why anyone who watched this game would use the words Michigan and big ten title in the same sentence is beyond me.
OSU lost at Illinois by 19 points. Duke lost at NC State by 8 then at Miami by 27. Bad games happen. This team took a night off. In all other games where they had a slow start, they fought back.
"But they're supposed to be getting better!" Well, other teams get better too. The competition isn't static.
If it were just one game, that would be one thing. But its not. Michigan is now routinely getting absolutely crushed in the first halves of road games. That's not a hallmark of a team just having an off night. It a sign of some serious issues and good teams are picking up on them and exploiting those issues.
Luckily it was only one game and only counts as one loss.
One game counts as one loss? Who knew?
1. You have the um / Indiana game as a possible loss for both teams and seem to have counted it as a loss in each's predicted record.
2. Your predicted record for Ohio State has too many games.
3. I think a tie with msu and Indiana is very possible. I think um will get it together and win out. MSU will lose to Ohio State and Michigan. Indiana will lose to MSU and UM.
My expectations went from final four to we will be lucky to make the sweet sixteen. No chance at a big ten title!!!!
Never expect a Final Four trip. The tournament just doesn't work that way...I went to KU as an undergrad, and I saw too many top-flight teams there lose early to ever take anything for granted. Every tournament win is a gift.
Keep in mind that in the last 10 days we've played four consecutive teams that are Sweet 16 caliber or better. In the actual tournament, we'll face two inferior opponents in the first two rounds (and probably play them in Auburn Hills).
At this point why shouldn't we assume MSU gets the Auburn Hills slot?
There are two preferred seeds at each location. Assuming no implosions, both should be there.
Currently, Indiana and MSU would be favored to get those preferred seeds in the Midwest, wouldn't they?
They will probably be seeded in the Midwest regional (where the Sweet 16/Elite 8 are in Indy) but not necessarily to Auburn Hills for the opening rounds. The first weekend's sites don't have anything to do with the geography of the "regions" they're in. We could be in the South region and play in the Palace.
first second round host sites. Indiana would likely be shipped to one of those, as they are both closer to Bloomington than Detroit.
have 1 common them. They were all road games. The B1G tourney and NCAA tourney are all neutral site games. This team will be fine.
All of our impressive wins are at home. Tourney games are at neutral sites. See what I did there?
Michigan beat Kansas State and Pitt, currently ranked 10th and 16th respectively, at a neutral site. Both are looking like 4/5 seeds. If you want to argue that they weren't ranked at the time, then I'll bring up the win at Minnesota.
Winning on the road is tough, especially when teams make half court heaves. Ask Duke, who had a similar experience at Miami. Or Indiana with Illinois. Or Florida with Arkansas. I'm fairly sure that Michigan is the only team in the country whose losses are all to currently ranked teams, and it is pretty rare that a team plays 4 straight games during the regular season against top 20 teams. By contrast, msu was coming off games against Illinois, Minnesota, and purdue, two of which were at home. Michigan just looked tired. The time off, especially being somewhat bookended by penn state games (like a vacation in itself), is going to be a big help, as will having the two toughest games left at home.
After this game, I doubt we will win the B1G. May be we can be a two seed but I'm thinking our opponents know how to play against us now.
I'm worried about an early exit from the NCAA tournament as well. Unless our team defense can vastly improve over the next 3 weeks?
Here are my predictions...
MSU (Currently 1st)
Feb 16 - @ NEB – Likely Win (W)
Feb 19 - vs #1 IND – Possible Win (L)
Feb 24 - @ #13 OSU – Possible Loss (L)
Mar 2 - @ #4 MICH - Possible Loss (L)
Mar 7 - vs #20 WIS – Possible Win (W)
Mar 10 - vs NW – Likely Win (W)
FINAL RECORD: 13-5
Indiana (Currently 2nd)
Feb 13 - vs NEB - Likely Win (W)
Feb 16 - vs PUR - Likely Win (W)
Feb 19 - @ #8 MSU - Possible Loss (W)
Feb 26 - @ MINN - Possible Win (W)
Mar 2 - vs IOWA - Likely Win (W)
Mar 5 - vs #13 OSU - Possible Win (W)
Mar 10 - @ #4 MICH - Possible Loss (L)
FINAL RECORD: 15-3
Wisconsin (Currently 3rd)
Feb 14 - @ MINN – Possible Loss (L)
Feb 17 - vs #13 OSU – Possible Win (W)
Feb 20 - @ NW – Likely Win (W)
Feb 26 - vs NEB – Likely Win (W)
Mar 3 - vs PUR – Likely Win (W)
Mar 7 - @ #8 MSU – Possible Loss (L)
Mar 10 - @ PSU – Likely Win (W)
FINAL RECORD: 13-5
Michigan (Currently 4th)
Feb 17 - vs PSU - Likely Win (W)
Feb 24 - vs ILL - Possible Win (W)
Feb 27 - @ PSU - Likely Win (W)
Mar 2 - vs #8 MSU - Possible Loss (W)
Mar 6 - @ PUR - Possible Win (W)
Mar 10 - vs #1 IND - Possible Loss (W)
FINAL RECORD: 14-4
Ohio (Currently 5th)
Feb 14 - vs NW - Likely Win (W)
Feb 17 - @ #20 WIS – Possible Loss (L)
Feb 20 - vs MINN – Possible Win (W)
Feb 24 - vs #8 MSU – Possible Win (W)
Feb 28 - @ NW – Likely Win (W)
Mar 5 - @ #1 IND – Possible Loss (L)
Mar 10 - vs ILL – Possible Win (W)
FINAL RECORD: 12-6
It was one game, We played much worse than we are, and they played much better than they are. We played sloppy: made bad passes, couldnt catch good passes, miserable in transition offense, would leave spartans wide open in the paint and on the wings.Appling looked better than Burke, that is not the case on most nights. They do have the best defense in the Big Ten, and if their shots arent falling they have three guys down low that can score. We need to utilize the hook shot more with McGary, I'm not even sure JB knows how to teach it.
I don't care about winning the Big Ten after watching the game tonight. I care about getting at least a 2 seed now (sigh), fixing the issues this team clearly has and getting to the final four. A team with some size down low, an average point guard and solid defense can beat us in the tournament. That's just one bad matchup. Stauskas and Robinson need to come out of the funk, McGary needs to find an inside game, and Morgan needs to get healthy. We need to come out and fucking steamroll our next three games and show some fight
We played much worse than we are, and they played much better than they are.
So did Ohio State.
So did Indiana.
So did Wisconsin.
At some point it is no longer an abberation. You are what your record says you are.
We lose road games against tough opponents. So do most teams.
You are what your record says you are.
Our record is 21-4. Are you disappointed with that?
These are all the same things that have happened in previous games and the mistakes are becoming more frequent. The team keeps moving further and further away from playing sound defense, rebounding, and running any semblence of an offense. That's the troubling part.
at Wisky or MSU.
Tonight UM's interior and defensive desire were exposed, out of UM"s hands now, thats what hurts
fyi we don't play at wisky this year
sorry typo, UM needed to win at Wisky or MSU
OK, you must not have followed the basketball team for very long. Last year was our first conference title in 26 years. You don't turn up your nose at a league title just because some other team happens to share it.
I'd still rather be co-champion than lone runner-up.
Of the competition, we probably have the easiest road ahead. Guess we just have to wait and see if/when this team collects itself and gets back to it.
People need to stop overreacting. We lost to a good team on the road and got our butts kicked. Nothing like Penn st to get it going again. MSU took the first of four at home, we will fine.
Looking at the OP it's pretty telling how tough the first 2/3's of UM's schedule in conference play was. Illinois, Minnesota, OSU, Wisky, Indiana and MSU all on the road. Every other team listed in the OP has at least 2 road games remaining against those 6 schools and Michigan except Wisconsin.
At the beginning of conference play everryone said there was 2 keys to winning the conference.
1) Stealing a game or two on the road. UM definitely didn't against MSU, Wisky and IU but they walked out of Minny and Illinois with wins. The teams in 1st, 2nd and 3rd right now have the 3 biggest road wins so far in the conference - MSU in Madison, IU in Columbus and Wisky in Bloomington. However, they all still have some tough road games especially if you throw in Wisky and IU still have to go to Minnesota.
2) holding serve at home. So far of the 5 teams in the OP only Michigan and MSU have held serve at home. IU lost to Wisy, Wisky lost to MSU and OSU lost to Indiana.
If UM can hold serve at home they'll probably be right in the thick of the conference race win Indiana comes to town for the final game of the regular season.
Unless all hell breaks loose and we win outright. We gave up any claim to a title tonight if we share it. It's laughable, like how spatula tries claiming the football championship when they got blasted by a 7-5 Iowa team. I'm just hoping for a miracle tourney run to bit be embarrassed at this point. This team showed no fight and panicked on the road against a lesser in state institution. If we ran correctly, going to el would be like going to mount pleasant. There's a reason no other school in Ohio is relevant in any sport. Because Ohio makes sure of that. Sorry for the rant. In fucking pissed
Spatulas gonna spatulate.
But remember this: Expectors Gonna Expectorate.
Michigan basketball stinks and I don't want to hear we loss to a good team crap
Well it was a road game.
than football. B1G championships are nice but long runs in March are the bigger goal. We had a tough stretch, but we have plenty time to group. Most teams have a blow out loss or two. We should win our next 3 games handedly. More importantly we can use the next 10 days or so to get back to fundamental basketball and work our freshmen out of their slumps.
How do we go from everyone on the board talking about a 1 seed and final 4 to we ate a terrible basketball team? We got blown out yes. We looked really bad yes. But, be real with yourself and understand winning on the road against the #8 team, at the Breslin none the less is very difficult. I'm sure we will take this as a learning experience and regroup from here. But to start writing them off and marking us down as losses against MSU and Indy at home is ridiculous. I'm sure many of u will be saying u knew it all along when we do win.
This is the first year we've been ranked in the top 10 since last century. For a lot of people here, it's the first time they've ever seen Michigan basketball be so highly regarded. They haven't learned that even really good teams in basketball lay an egg sometimes.
People need to look at the big picture. We have four losses in 25 games. We all looked at the schedule before the year and saw that rough nine-game stretch from the game in Columbus to the game in EL. People were saying things like, "It'd be miraculous to only lose three games in that stretch." As it turned out, if not for a miracle we would have only lost three. If we can get Jordan Morgan healthy again (maybe he should sit out PSU) that would go a long way toward shoring up some of our deficiencies inside.
Looking ahead to the B1G Tournament, it is VERY important to get one of the top 3 seeds. There will be a 4/5 matchup in the quarterfinals(!) between two of the above mentioned teams. Its going to very hard for anybody to win 3 games in 3 days against the competition above so you want one of the bottom 7 teams on Thursday(Friday?). And not even making the B1G semis is probably a surefire way to drop a seed or two given the other 4 teams that will advance.
do people realize we are 1-4 vs. top BIG teams (1 W vs OSU and 4 L vs. MSU, OSU, IU, Wisco). I know we played road games but you eventually have to win a road game if you are going to consider yourself good right?
Only 1 of them has a big road win and it's Indiana who also lost to Illinois on the road and Wisc at home
Wisky beat IU in Bloomington and MSU beat Wisky in Madison. I'd count those as big road wins.
Count Minny as a big road win since they were ranked #9 at the time and were fresh off a win over MSU
I do. It's a top ten win.
In college basketball, you're basically not expected to beat good teams on the road. The key is to hold serve at home, beat all bad teams on the road and try to steal one good road win somewhere. Doing that generally will win you a Big Ten title.
Right, we had the hardest schedule and now the other top teams hit their tough road schedules. Michigan can definitely beat MSU and Indiana at home, and since they're separated by a tasty helping of Penn State twice, Purdue, and Illinois (though admittedly tougher maybe than I thought, but the game is at Crisler, so that's good). We're, what, 29-1 at home in the past 2 years and we've got one of the most talented teams in the league, a 14-4 conference record is not out of the question. Our team is young (something like 330th ranked, whatever) and that youth and inexperience showed on the road against top teams, but in the friendly confines of Crisler, a 14-4 record is attainable.
GR3 was my favorite player on this team through January. I was a huge fan of how he just got things done and let his game speak for itself. Since the calendar has changed to February he has the following stats:
7/24 2pt fg
1/5 3pt fg
Having our 4 play over 30 minutes a game while not scoring, rebounding or assisting is really hurting this team. The thing that bothers me most is that I get scoring slumps happen, but I don't see any hustle or emotion from him and others. Outside of Burke, McGary and Hardaway Jr, no one else looks to really care out there. Stop talking about these kids being tired after having 4 games in 10 days. Not sure how any of you expect a team to play in the Big Ten Tournament where 20 year olds are expected to play on back to back days.
Here is to hoping GR3 reverts back to form come March.
I don't know if the grind of the season is catching up to him as a freshman, if he's sick, or if he's just intimidated by better competition, but he just looks out of it. I constantly see him just jogging back on defense, standing flat flooted under the rim while opppsing players jump over him for rebounds, and just standing around on offense. And considering he's gone from 41 to 33 to 21 min in the last three games, it appears JB is reacting accordingly.
Remember people, anything can happen. We looked down and out last year and state lost 2 straight games the last 2 games of the regular season to give Michigan the title.
Michigan must win out. Period. If they want to keep hopes alive. Need some help along the way. Michigan has a very realisitc shot at winning the title.
We need state to beat indiana, lose at ohio and then we take them both out at Crisler to even both records at 4 losses. That's how I think we can get the championship.
is to hope for a 3 or 4 way tie similar to last year.
I think Michigan can go 5-1 to round out the final 6 remaining games to finish 13-5. In order for MSU and Indiana to be in the same boat, they'll need to drop a few expected win each...yeah, will be a tough order this year.
That loss to Wisconsin really sucked :|
The problem is going to be depth. Morgon has a nagging ankle injury and Horrford is a bust. Trey Burke doesn't have a backup. I bet every guard on Indiana, MSU and Ohio state are better than Spike. Glen Robinson Jr is regressing instead of improving. Levert and Staukus are horrible at defense. Hardaway doesn't have a backup either. For some reason coach B isn't coaching very well either. Its no secret that MSU has struggled against the zone this year, but Michigan didn't try playing the 1-3-1 until the game was essentially over. Michigan needs another year or two of elite recruiting classes before they will have quality depth and the experience they need tob win a national title. OSU, IU, and MSU have had multiple elite classes. Michigan has only had one in the last ten years or so. The only way Michigan can recover is if they get healthy and everyone starts shooting good again like earlier in the year. This team can't beat elite teams unless they score at least 70 + points. The defense is just not good enough on a consistant basis.
...and has an offense.
In the Big Ten, that means Indiana and Mich. State.
I am not convinced, with the disappearance of GRIII and the lack of creativity (assists) of late, that we can win against either of those teams on a neutral court.
I bet every guard on Indiana, MSU and Ohio state are better than Spike.
Why pile on Spike? The kid has only seven turnovers all season (against 19 assists). He's shooting 39% from downtown. I think he's okay as a spot backup. He gave us some good minutes against Ohio and Wisconsin last week.
we are not winning out and we are not winning the regular season B1G. carry on
Well, that settles it. What gave you that idea - our 14-0 home record or our record against PSU/Purdue (our only remaining road opponents)?
I think this path has been blocked by an avalanche of bricks, missed assignments and lack of confidence. I just want this team to find their mojo before it is too late.
Against state is a recipe for disaster. I don't see a lot of movement from GRIII, Nik or Hardaway. This makes the offense stagnant. On Defense one of the biggest problems was getting abused in the rebounding dept. can't give a team that is shooting well 2nd and 3rd chances. Quite honestly that boils down to effort.
The OP's outlook seems quite pessimistic in my opinion.
Feb 17 - vs PSU - Likely Win
Feb 24 - vs ILL - Possible Win
Possible win? Seems like a likely win to me. Michigan already beat Illinois by 14, at Illinois.
Feb 27 - @ PSU - Likely Win
Mar 2 - vs #8 MSU - Possible Loss
I would clasify this is as a possible win. Yes, Michigan lost to Michigan State. Playing at home will probably be a different story. Duke, for example, lost to North Carolina State by 8 then a few weeks later beat them by 13.
Mar 6 - @ PUR - Possible Win
I'd call this a likely win.
Mar 10 - vs #1 IND - Possible Loss
As with Michigan State, playing at home will be different. I'm saying possible win.
So, I'd think all of Michigan's remaining games are possible wins or likely wins.
4 Likely Wins, 2 Possible Wins
Predicted Conference Record: 14-4
Exactly. Plus Michigan State goes to Ohio and Ann Arbor plus a game against the Hoosiers at home? I seriously doubt they win any of those three. If we take care of business that makes us 14-4, them 13-5, and Indiana has to lose one game to any of their remaining non-MSU opponents.
As the ratings stand right now, here's how Massey would project the conference:
|TEAM||EST. WINS||EST. LOSSES|
At least for our own remaining games, that record (again, estimated) and a potential share of the conference is entirely feasible at this point (if not better). Much can still happen. We will have one more dicey week at the beginning of March to end the regular season anyway, but those games are at home and we have two weeks or so to turn recent learnings from this stretch into some pretty favorable results. Having about a week's break coming up here hopefully gives everyone time to rest some as well.
MSU has to play Indiana in Lansing, at Columbus, and then at Crisler. They won't win any of those games. We need to win out and Indiana has to lose a game besides that against us or MSU. Big Ten Champs.
Winning the next game.
We win out and everybody else continues to lose road games and we will at least share.
Last night definitely makes me wonder about the fight in this team. However, the home court advantage in the Big 10 is HUGE. It wouldn't surprise me to see them win all 6 of those remaining games. Like Izzo said after the game last night, MSU played their best game of the season and Michigan definitely played their worst.
From what I've seen, Indiana is the best team in the conference. Two weeks ago, I would have said Michigan was right with them. Their 3 losses were at 3 of the toughest places to play period. Once games go to neutral sites for the Big 10 tourney and NCAA tourney, it will be interesting to see how they do.