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Relax - Here is what is going to happen

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November 22nd, 2010 at 4:04 PM
#1
Wolverine90
Wolverine90's picture
Joined: 10/02/2008
MGoPoints: 157
Relax - Here is what is going to happen

Been following UM for 33 years.  First recalled game was the Charles White phantom touchdown in 1979 vs USC in the Rose Bowl.

 

This next two weeks will be the loudest for the anti-RR bandwagon.  Then after a week or two, in mid-December, as UM begins preparing for it’s bowl game, reason and objectivity will return.  Everyone will come back to realizing that RR is going to get a 4thyear.  No question about it. 

 

While RR is definitely at fault for a very large number of missteps over the last 3 years, the man has also been subjected to an inordinately large number of misfortunes (injuries, youth, bare cupboard the first 2 years), many of which were not his fault, which have negatively impacted his ability to advance his team quicker.  This is the silver lining upon which the pro vs. anti RR bases will squabble during this off season.

 

But RR will return, and I am happy he will.  AD Brandon is a smart man, and this is what he will conclude:

  1. For all the negativity, for all the mediocrity, for all the losing streaks, the University of Michigan has made a 3 year investment in Rich Rodriguez in order to give him a chance, and the time, to get his system in place.
  2. For all the negativity, the investment has followed a positive trajectory – 3-9, 5-7, 7-5…
  3. While the defense has regressed to catastrophic levels, the offense has done the polar opposite, setting records.
  4. Jim Harbaugh is an attractive candidate.  He is a Michigan Man, and has done terrifically well at a school without the recruiting pull or football tradition of a major power.  However, Brandon will look at it this way – what differentiates Harbaugh’s success now from Les Miles’ success three years ago?  Further, what differentiates Harbaugh’s success now, with all world QB Andrew Luck, from RR’s success at WVU with all world QB Pat White a few years ago?  What is to guarantee Harbaugh would leave his cushy position at beautiful Palo Alto, at a job with little expectation or pressure, for the pressure cooker at UM?
  5. Returning RR for a fourth year is only fair, to see through on our three year investment and give him one more chance to finally put it all together, improve the defense, and continue the positive trajectory to 8-4 or 9-3 and finally back into the upper echelon of the Big 10.
  6. Finally, and most importantly, returning RR for a fourth year will also evidence to other coaches out there that Michigan’s administration is not trigger happy with the pink slip.  It will show coaches around the country that if you get hired at UM, you are going to be given every chance possible to succeed, and patience will be shown.  UM fans with rose colored lenses will bark back that “but this is Michigan and any coach in the country would die for this job!”  Not true.  UM’s is a tough coaching job.  Incredible fan expectations, coupled with heated in-state rival recruiting wars (does Ohio State have to battle an in-state Big 10 school for it’s own players like we do with MSU?  Goodbye Gholston, Thomas, Bullock, etc., etc.).  Brandon will show the nation that he has his coach’s back this off season, and this will position Michigan favorably regardless if RR busts in 2011. If he succeeds, we all exhale. If he fails, we are positioned well for the next hire. If Harbaugh bleeds Blue as much as many say, one more year of waiting will not impact him, and he will likely not sign on for a long term deal anywhere else in the interim, knowing full well this position may possibly become available next year if RR fails.

Early prediction for 2011 – new D coordinator (GERG, while also not entirely responsible for the fiasco on D, will be the fall guy), and UM goes 8-4, seeing RR into a 5thseason.

 

 

GO BLUE, and until he is no longer our coach, I SUPPORT RICH ROD.

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November 22nd, 2010 at 4:09 PM | This was clearly a well (Score:1)
Blue-Chip
Blue-Chip's picture
Joined: 01/06/2010
MGoPoints: 2950

This was clearly a well reasoned, well structured arguement.  While there is an anti-RR faction that certainly won't like it, I believe this is very similar to how Dave Brandon will view his decision on RR and the program.

Your friendly neighborhood contrarian.

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November 22nd, 2010 at 4:10 PM | RATIONAL!?!? (Score:1)
MarcM
Joined: 11/02/2010
MGoPoints: 79

6 rational and well thought out points in a post...AFTER A LOSS....PERTAINING TO MICHIGAN?!?! i haven't been around that long but i'm pretty sure thats not allowed. well done 90

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November 22nd, 2010 at 4:11 PM | RATIONAL!?!? (Score:1)
MarcM
Joined: 11/02/2010
MGoPoints: 79

6 rational and well thought out points in a post...AFTER A LOSS....PERTAINING TO MICHIGAN?!?! i haven't been around that long but i'm pretty sure thats not allowed. well done 90

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November 22nd, 2010 at 4:11 PM | I think you made some great (Score:1)
DreadPower
Joined: 10/17/2010
MGoPoints: 1493

I think you made some great points, but I don't like that you called us 7-5.

Last I checked, we're 7-4 with one game to go.

You ain't havin it? Good, me either. Let's get together and make the whole world believers.

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November 22nd, 2010 at 4:13 PM | I was thinking the same (Score:1)
HttV Wolverine
HttV Wolverine's picture
Joined: 08/02/2010
MGoPoints: 7363

I was thinking the same thing, and I think that 9-3 is a pretty good early prediction for next year. With Denard being a year older and the defense having some experience (unlike coming into this season), I think we will be pretty good again.

“What the mind can conceive, the mind can achieve and those who stay will be champions.” - Bo 

][V][

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November 22nd, 2010 at 4:12 PM | 10-2 (Score:1)
sheepman
sheepman's picture
Joined: 02/05/2009
MGoPoints: 1828

I love your reasoned response. Oh except the 8-4 next year. Fuck that - 10-2.

"Are you Bluish? You don't look Bluish..."

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November 22nd, 2010 at 4:32 PM | Maybe 10-2 (Score:1)
cjffemt
Joined: 12/17/2009
MGoPoints: 163

The only way I see us going 10-2 next year is if they fire Gerg or they give GERG the reigns to run the defense as he sees fit.  If they do fire Gerg, then the replacement could be anyone, noone in particular, for simple reason being.  If we hire someone to take a DC job we hire him and his defensive schemes.  I strongly believe that if Gerg would have been able to bring in his coaches and defense, this team could have been a bit better than it was this year.  RR needs to stick with the offense and give full reigns of the defense over to the DC.  Allow the DC to bring in his own coaches and schemes and you will see a much imporved defense.

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November 22nd, 2010 at 4:13 PM | Furthermore... (Score:1)
ciszew
Joined: 01/23/2010
MGoPoints: 404

...RR would be owed 4 million dollars if dismissed before Jan 1.  You are right in that most likely RR will come back.  And you are also right that most likely we will go 8-4 next year.  But where you are wrong is in improvement.  The defense will never improve as long as RichRod is coach.  He philosophy has a lack of emphasis on defense, and he has very poor judgment went it comes to hiring on that side of the ball. 


Until we beat MSU, OSU, and the upper echelon Big Ten teams we will not be improved enough.  I have no confidence (and I hope that I am wrong) that RR will ever be able to get us there. 

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November 22nd, 2010 at 4:52 PM | This comment is laughable. (Score:1)
BlueintheLou
BlueintheLou's picture
Joined: 09/13/2008
MGoPoints: 3472

This comment is laughable. Rich Rod's defenses will never improve? Listen to yourself. The key to RR's success is how much his defenses will improve. Look at this defense, the relative youth, the potential coaching change to a potentially more serviceable DC, injured players returning, and tell me this defense will never improve.

The defense will be improved in future years. Will it be improved enough for us to compete at the top of the Big 10 and nation? Time will tell. No improvement at all? Absolutely not.

"Those who stay will be champions."
"As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1."
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November 22nd, 2010 at 5:30 PM | even if the Defense were to (Score:1)
griesecheeks
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Joined: 09/06/2008
MGoPoints: 638

even if the Defense were to improve by giving up A TOUCHDOWN less per game, and our offense soared to it's Oregon-level potential - which is quite possible, given the returning starters - we would be in contention for the B-10 Championship. I'm not asking for a great defense right now, I'm asking for an average defense that can compete and take just enough heat off the offense to give us a chance to win against the upper echelon teams. That is totally attainable.

8-4 next year would be the absolute bottom line. 9-3 would be about what I expect. 10 wins isn't out of the question...

'my head take's a lickin' but it keeps on tickin' just the same'

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November 22nd, 2010 at 5:35 PM | Ciszew (Score:1)
2014
2014's picture
Joined: 12/11/2009
MGoPoints: 1942

You are just wrong on the defense comment. His defenses at WVU were respectable to good depending on the year.

Wrong.

Wrong.

Wrong.

9-3 has to be considered the baseline next year. Any worse would be a real dissapointment.

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November 22nd, 2010 at 6:04 PM | It is ridiculous to say that (Score:1)
BlueTimesTwo
BlueTimesTwo's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 1826

It is ridiculous to say that our defense will never get better under RR.  Even if the defensive coaching is terrible (which it might be), our freshmen will still get bigger, stronger, faster and/or more experienced.  The level of mental and physical maturity will improve, bad coaching notwithstanding.  Since most of the defense is returning next year, and we don't lose anybody irreplaceable, it would be hard for the defense not to improve if only due to time spent in practice and in the weight room.  Bringing in a top DC and giving him free reign would likely make the improvement occur even more quickly.

"People who love sausage and respect the law should never watch either being made."

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November 22nd, 2010 at 4:15 PM | me (Score:1)
MGlobules
Joined: 11/17/2008
MGoPoints: 5165

likey.

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November 22nd, 2010 at 4:15 PM | True.  I look at this (Score:1)
Wolverine90
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Joined: 10/02/2008
MGoPoints: 157

True.  I look at this upcoming weekend this way - if we lose, few guts will wrench because it is expected.  If we win, this might be right up there with '69 or '97 as the greatest UM wins over OSU in history.  That we could live this dream in reality would take all of life's other troubles - the economy, my boss, car problems, traffic, etc. - and turn them all into sweet, sweet music for 9 months.

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November 22nd, 2010 at 4:19 PM | THIS (Score:1)
michgoblue
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Joined: 11/16/2009
MGoPoints: 11211

So true.  We are years away. 

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November 22nd, 2010 at 4:58 PM | Contradictions (Score:1)
Blue_Sox
Joined: 09/30/2010
MGoPoints: 4916

So this extremely young team is "light years away" from playing with the top teams. Yet you also say that Nebraska has a QB that is "almost as electric" as Shoelace and a year younger. Clearly this implies that you think Taylor Martinez will get better as he gets older (which is absolutely true)...yet the same can't be said about our team? How exactly is that reconcilable? 

 

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November 22nd, 2010 at 7:23 PM | I think the youth problem noted is around the defense. (Score:1)
maizenbluenc
maizenbluenc's picture
Joined: 07/21/2009
MGoPoints: 2678

I think the youth problem noted is around the defense. Last I checked it took Freshmen 2 to 3 years to become upper classemen /s/. We are in year one of 2 to 3 years, and that assumes the Freshmen and Sophomores we have playing are "the guys" long term.

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November 22nd, 2010 at 5:44 PM | really? grumpy (Score:1)
griesecheeks
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Joined: 09/06/2008
MGoPoints: 638

really? grumpy mcgrumperson.

Data Point 1: Top Ten Offense starting Sophomore QB who breaks NCAA and B10 and Michigan records in 2010

Data Point 2: 19 starters return next year

Data Point 3: Favorable Schedule in 2011.

It is all but a certainty that our offense will be more explosive and more efficient next season. We have Oregon-level potential. Seriously. Cut the TO's by a good percentage, and this offense will be close to unstoppable. Senior Stonum, Odoms & Hemingway. Junior Roundtree. Senior Mike Shaw. Junior Vince Smith. Junior Denard Robinson.

I mean, come on. If you can't be excited by our offensive potential next year with returning stars who are a cohesive unit and understand the playbook better, you have a problem.

As for the defense, basically everyone of importance returns, having gained valuable game experience in the fire this year. Will they miraculously turn into beasts? probably not. Could they be average and give up 24 instead of 34 points a game? Absolutely! we're bottom of the barrel right now. It can't get worse. We're in the middle of having the worst possible defense ever. This isn't an underachieving off year from a good defense. It's a defense being built from the ground up with freshmen all over the place.

This year is a perfect storm of young defenseless defense meets potentially lethal offense that still occasionally breaks down. Add in cripplingly awful special teams, and we're a 7-4 team that has yet to beat the big dogs in the B10, but can take care of the winnable games.

Hang in there. A dollar says there will be a pretty remarkable difference in play next year.

'my head take's a lickin' but it keeps on tickin' just the same'

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November 22nd, 2010 at 10:08 PM | you're entitled to your opinion, Ed, and I think that negging (Score:1)
MGlobules
Joined: 11/17/2008
MGoPoints: 5165

people just because you disagree or they voice un-homerish sentiments is lame, but. . . "light years away" is just. . . not thoughtful. Fortunately, it doesn't matter what you (or I) think anymore; we're gonna see how next year plays out with RichRod. 

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November 22nd, 2010 at 4:16 PM | You appear to be a reasonable (Score:1)
michgoblue
michgoblue's picture
Joined: 11/16/2009
MGoPoints: 11211

You appear to be a reasonable guy, and an obvious long-time fan, but I think that you over-simplified this too much. 

1.  If DB was definitely going to go this route, he would have said so, instead of saying that he will examine the program as a whooe at the end of the season.

2.  You mention that it is "only fair" to keep RR for another year.  I don't think that "fair" has anything to do with it.  RR was brought in for a purpose - to win football games.  He has not done that.  Our B10 record is a joke, we lose games in embarassing fashion, we can't fiend a competitive defense (in his 3rd year), his recruiting is not very good, his defensive hires have not panned out.  If we were to part ways with RR, can't see how that is unfair.

3.  Harbaugh:

What is to guarantee Harbaugh would leave his cushy position at beautiful Palo Alto, at a job with little expectation or pressure, for the pressure cooker at UM?

There is no guaranty.  But, there is no reason that IF DB is interested, he can't begin to feal out this situation.  And Harbaugh shouldn't be the deciding factor.  If we fire RR, it should be because he is not the guy to lead us back to glory.

4.  The offense:

While the defense has regressed to catastrophic levels, the offense has done the polar opposite, setting records.

These "records" haven't allowed us to beat a solid team.  Much of this is on the defense.  But our record-setting offense was shut out during the first half against Wisco, and was dominated during the first halves of the MSU, Iowa and PSU games.  We only put up big numbers during these games where the other teams went into prevent defense.  And, the majority of our record-setting numbers were against OOC cupcakes, Indiana and Illinois.  Yes, we have improved, but I don't think that the numbers tell the full story.

5.  Also:

Finally, and most importantly, returning RR for a fourth year will also evidence to other coaches out there that Michigan’s administration is not trigger happy with the pink slip. 

If we are keeping RR< it should not be to look good for other coaches.  It should be because we think that he is our best bet for success.  If we are keeping him, the premise is that we don't give a damn what other coaches think, because we will not be in the market for those coaches. 

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November 22nd, 2010 at 4:38 PM | Our offense wasn't dominated (Score:1)
switch26
Joined: 02/04/2010
MGoPoints: 2638

Our offense wasn't dominated by MSU at all in the first half..  We were dominated by ourselves..

 

Denard threw a bad pass and missed a few other easy reads, probably being too excited.

 

Even greg jones said if we didn't get lucky and denard throws a better pass in the endzone that would of changed the game completely..  As they scored after the Turnover..  Who knows what happens if we put them in a hole early

 

Don't act like we were dominated by MSU when we weren't.  We lost that game because we executed poorly, not because they dominated us..

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November 22nd, 2010 at 4:47 PM | We were favored in that game. (Score:1)
NateVolk
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We were favored in that game. It was embarrassing. Winning teams execute. When you don't execute, you get dominated and beat big on the scoreboard. Which is what happened.

"because character wins in life and character wins on the football field....."  1-11-11

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November 22nd, 2010 at 6:43 PM | So in other words favored (Score:1)
JeffB
Joined: 09/22/2009
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So in other words favored teams should always win?  In that case why even bother playing?

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November 22nd, 2010 at 4:56 PM | The Point (Score:1)
jackw8542
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The point is that the offense did not execute when it needed to execute.  Apart from creating stats, marching down the field only to throw the ball to a guy with an ugly uniform in the end zone does us no good.

In the morning he would read the Bible with another coach. Then, in the afternoon, he would go out and cheat kids who had probably saved up money from mowing lawns to buy those raffle tickets. That's Jim Tressel.

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November 22nd, 2010 at 4:48 PM | copy and paste (Score:1)
Bodogblog
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No Prevent

Prevent is 2 safeties deep, keep everything in front of you, tackle and drag out the clock.

Was there a safety helping w/ Stonum in the 2nd half? No. Just like the 1st. Man coverage with no help, Stonum made plays at will. That's not a prevent. Ditto the pass plays for Tate against Iowa. Could be complacency, but doubt it.

I'm concerned why we stall in the first half, but it seems more related to us. We play tight early. But guys were open, blocks were being made. If Denard hits the wide open streaks in the first half, a different game. He will next year and the year after

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November 23rd, 2010 at 12:56 AM | Agreed.  I'm not sure, (Score:1)
AlwaysBlue
Joined: 11/23/2008
MGoPoints: 539

Agreed.  I'm not sure, especially since Brandon has repeatedly said that there wasn't any number of required wins, how so many have decided that Rodriguez has won enough games.  

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November 22nd, 2010 at 4:25 PM | the truth is.... (Score:1)
Elno Lewis
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None of us know wut DB is gonna do.

 

But, whatever he does, i am certain it will be awesome and involve expensive shiat.

Time wounds all heels. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwGXMryTbwE

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November 22nd, 2010 at 11:10 PM | In a thread filled with the pain... (Score:1)
csam1490
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In a thread filled with the pain of fratricidal violence, this made me laugh out loud. "Expensive shiat": good show.

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November 22nd, 2010 at 4:34 PM | Very Nice 90 (Score:1)
Steve in PA
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I think if DB makes a move, we won't know about it until after it happens unlike the last fiasco.  He's too experienced in the business world to show his hand prematurely.

That being said, if LSU cuts loose Miles for some reason the noise on this board will become almost unbearable.  I also think Harbaugh's next stop is the NFL, not NCAA.

 

 

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November 22nd, 2010 at 6:10 PM | Miles (Score:1)
BlueFish
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LSU is 10-1 and headed to a New Year's Day bowl (or better).  I'm thinking he's not going anywhere.

If only Coach Mo hadn't gotten so drunk.

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November 22nd, 2010 at 4:48 PM | Next year (Score:1)
Needs
Joined: 08/05/2008
MGoPoints: 4163

RR deserves another year, but next year the expectations are going to be higher than 8-4. The way next year's schedule sets up, we should compete for the division title. ND, Nebraska, and OSU at home, Iowa losing a lot of experience. Add in crossover games with Illinois and Purdue, and next year is going to be the easiest schedule we have for quite some time.  I don't think 8-4 would be enough.

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November 22nd, 2010 at 4:49 PM | What differentiate's Jim's (Score:1)
NateVolk
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What differentiate's Jim's success from Miles first 3 years? The difference between what he inherited and what Miles inherited.

Night and day. But they both had football teams. So you are kind of right.

"because character wins in life and character wins on the football field....."  1-11-11

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November 22nd, 2010 at 4:53 PM | It also should be noted that (Score:1)
SFBlue
Joined: 11/02/2009
MGoPoints: 3119

It also should be noted that RR has built a historically prolific offensive team.  I believe that yards per game are a misleading metric, but Michigan has moved the ball easier than any other team I can remember.  RR coached up this offense.  He has guys who were not big recruits (Roundtree, Ommameh, Vincent Smith, Robinson was offered by big programs as a defensive back) and made them very, very good.  It's only one side of the ball, but he should get full credit for this. 

Plus, there is still some football to be played.  Michigan will have their hands full with tOSU and a bowl matchup with Mizzou, but there are two more chances to get an 8th win. 

Missing Ann Arbor

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November 22nd, 2010 at 7:37 PM | True. However, (Score:1)
maizenbluenc
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His recruiting staff failed to land enough defensive recruits.

I know they had decommits, guys who didn't pan out, and guy's who didn't make it in: it doesn't matter why. It was obvious in '07, '08 and '09 that defense was a problem. For half the '08 class and all of the last two, that is on Rich Rod's recruiting staff.

They've built a good offense that looks like it will be great next year and the year after. They have flat out failed to build any sort of defense, and seem to be continually at square one.

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November 22nd, 2010 at 4:59 PM | Damn (Score:1)
Mitch Cumstein
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I don't have my glasses today so I can't read this thread.

"A flute with no holes is not a flute. A donut with no hole is a danish"

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November 22nd, 2010 at 5:00 PM | It won't happen without contact on some level (Score:1)
NateVolk
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Let's make sure Harbaugh knows we want him and see what happens from there. Maybe Mr. Brandon will make that known, maybe he won't. If he does, I say the deal gets done. 

Since the case has been closed on the upper echelon ability of Harbaugh as a coach and what he'll bring to Michigan football, the only issue is whether the man in charge agrees to go that direction, or if he wants to wait and see if we can have the breakthrough next year.  I trust his decision.

Don't look past the economic aspect of this either.  On WTKA it was mentioned that suites are still unsold and there is season ticket holder abandonment going on. Not sure if either is true. 

The reality is that the fans on blogs like this are very hard core, but economically we don't matter nearly as much as the lesser informed fans. The people who sorta know, the MSM fed fans, make up the middle 80 plus% and they need to be pleased. They didn't sound it on the TV at halftime Saturday.

"because character wins in life and character wins on the football field....."  1-11-11

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November 22nd, 2010 at 6:34 PM | Finally, and most (Score:1)
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 28976

This next two weeks will be the loudest for the anti-RR bandwagon.  Then after a week or two, in mid-December, as UM begins preparing for it’s bowl game, reason and objectivity will return

If we lose on Saturday, RR will be 6-18 (.250) in Big Ten play.   Is that record really going to look better in two weeks' time?  How so? 

Finally, and most importantly, returning RR for a fourth year will also evidence to other coaches out there that Michigan’s administration is not trigger happy with the pink slip.

People regularly make this argument.  I don't think it matters.  Coaches do not expect to fail, so they generally don't care what happened to the guy before them.  In 2004, Florida fired Ron Zook halfway through his third season, and wound up hiring the hottest name in the country (Urban Meyer).  Before Carroll, USC fired Paul Hackett after three years.  Carroll obviously wasn't discouraged.  ND's regular quick trigger-finger didn't discourage Brian Kelly.  And so on. 

BTW, I'm just curious: If Brandon does decide to fire RR, will your opinion of him change? 

EDIT: to the anonymous poster who negged me: what was wrong with the post?

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November 22nd, 2010 at 5:25 PM | I joined the fire Richrod (Score:1)
B
Joined: 09/29/2009
MGoPoints: 5

I joined the fire Richrod bandwagon in the last couple weeks. That said, if Harbaugh is not available for whatever reason, we may be better off giving him a 4th year on the condition that the entire defensive staff be fired.  But if he is available, Michigan needs to make a move.  This team is so far away from being competitive.  It is unfathomable that a team could run on a Michigan defense like Wisconsin did Saturday.  It shows how far we have fallen.  The offensive production has been good, but its success is greatly exaggerated.  Against quality competition, it has struggled mightily when it matters.  It's time to cut our losses.  The ideal time would be after Ohio State, so that Harbaugh can get his recruits and system in place.  The unfortunate result is the effect on Denard Robinson.  But we can't run a football program around one guy, just like we couldn't run one around Mallett.  Robinson will likely transfer and be terrific wherever he goes.  Rrod will likely reemerge and succeed at another school.  But Michigan will still be better off with a fresh start and stronger recruiting.  Michigan used to be a place that highly ranked defensive players attended to go to the NFL.  There was no reason for this to stop under Rodriguez.  But stop it has.

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November 22nd, 2010 at 9:08 PM | Yet the Defensive recruiting hasn't been that bad... (Score:1)
NathanFromMCounty
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...we have 3 4-star defensive recruits already (with a number of others being possible), we had a number of 4-star defensive recruits last year (M. Robinson, Christian, Ash, and Wilkins, along with Jibreel Black who was close to being a 4-star).

The big issue isn't talent.  It's the defensive coaching and scheme.  They get the defensive players in but just have done a fairly poor job of developing them (along with the unfortunate busts of William Campbell and Cissco which probably would have happened regardless of who coached them).

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November 22nd, 2010 at 5:32 PM | I am not a lunatic (Score:1)
EZMIKEP
Joined: 10/13/2008
MGoPoints: 908

And I didn't have high expectations this year. I thought 9-3 was our ceiling and 7-5 was our most likely outcome. But how is the hell do we go less than 10-2 next year with that schedule and Rich keeps his job? I think he is a great coach and I want to keep him around but if this train doesn't start out the gate at 8-0 or 7-1 with a tough battled close loss I am going to be severely disappointed and it will show me that this regime needs changed. The last 4 games are Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska and OSU and the last 2 are at home. If they can't go 2-2 in those last 2 games considering the regression all of those teams except Nebraska should take then its obvious this isn't the direction we should continue. I think expecting less in 2012 is more reasonable than 2011 considering the schedule for 2012 is completely opposite and going to be a gauntlet. Sorry but 10-2 next year or mission not accomplished. Fortunately I think we make that step and I predict a major improvement. 

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November 22nd, 2010 at 7:35 PM | C'mon man. Boards like (Score:1)
Wolverine90
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Joined: 10/02/2008
MGoPoints: 157

C'mon man. Boards like this were specifically meant so the little guy like you and me can have a small voice and have fun with the "I told ya so's" and the "I betcha's." Any time someone makes a prediction, it makes you puke?

Again I'm just one of the nameless, facelss guys, but along the lines of "I told ya so's," my predictions so far for 7-5 this year have been pretty good. 

I predicted four wins: IU, IU, UMass, BG.

I predicted four losses: Iowa, PSU, Wisc, OSU

I predicted four key coin flips: UConn, ND, MSU, Purdue.

Now I predict RR returning no matter the outcome Saturday vs OSU. 

In truth, I really just want to see one more year of RR to see what he can do.  Why?  Because I honestly think next year the following will happen:

1. The offense will get bigger, faster and improve (add Dee Hart freshman sensation?).

2. The defense has nowhere to go but up. Next year's adjustment on defense will to me, be pivotal to RR's eventual, or terminated future career at Michigan. 

3. The kicking game also had nowhere to go but up.

4. Turn overs will also, based on probabilities, improve.

5. Injuries will also, based upon probabilities, likely not be as devastating.

I don't see 12-0 next year, and I don't see the defense turning into Alabama, but if you me all of these improvements, I see 8-4 or 9-3. 

Still several brutal games next year.  ND will definitely be improved.  Northwestern is damn tough under Fitzgerald.  @ MSU is, well, no comment.  @Iowa?  Never easy, and probably like this year's PSU game.  Ending with Nebraska and Ohio State back to back is absolutely brutal.  Thankfully both Nebraska and Ohio State play PSU the week before us so no patsy giving them two weeks to prep.

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November 22nd, 2010 at 6:51 PM | add negative recruiting (Score:1)
SysMark
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Agree with this post completely but would add one significant obstacle RR has had to deal with - incessant negative recruiting - exacerbated by the freep nonsense.  I don't have specifics but am guessing that has cost us at least a few recruits that may have helped the defense.

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November 22nd, 2010 at 7:19 PM | I like how you hid a sure (Score:1)
Tha Stunna
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MGoPoints: 960

I like how you hid a sure loss to OSU as a premise in your post.  A small, 10-15% chance of winning is still a chance.

In response:

4. One giant difference between Harbaugh and Miles is that Harbaugh built a bad program into a very good program.  Miles inherited a very good program and kept it at about that level, albeit in a more interesting way.

5. Who cares about what's fair?  Is it fair that coaches make so much money regardless of performance?  Is it fair that we have a ridiculous number of underclassman as our secondary?  Also, 9-3 is the bare minimum we should expect from a good coach that returns this hypothetical 7-5 team - not that we can't do worse, just that it's a reasonable expectation.  I don't understand how people got married to the notion of this coach if he doesn't perform in his fourth year; "there's always next year" doesn't work very well when you use it three years in a row.

6. What?  This argument is (probably) based on Notre Dame, but their issue is hiring bad coaches, not that they threw Willingham out on his ass after he forgot the whole notion of recruiting.  They probably would have been better off if they hired B Kelly in '08 instead of '09 - patience didn't pay off for them.  This reason is probably the least important, and is unsubstantiated.

 

Finally, the general tone of your post, implying that other people are irrational and that you're the smug guy who knows all the answers, makes you sound like an ass.  There are ways to express an opinion properly, and then there is this post.

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November 22nd, 2010 at 7:57 PM | What planet are you (Score:1)
Wolverine90
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Joined: 10/02/2008
MGoPoints: 157

What planet are you from where reason and objectivity don't fly out the window for a significant number of fans after their team gets beaten badly, and then follows it by potentially losing again to their arch-rival?    Decades of watching this happen, of which endless times when I was younger I partook in it myself, and God forbid I mention it lest I be 'smug'....  Especially in light of the context surrounding RR right now, are you kidding?

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November 22nd, 2010 at 8:18 PM | Taking things on points by point (Score:1)
NathanFromMCounty
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Joined: 10/10/2010
MGoPoints: 82

Thought I'd address these point by point to tell you why I disagree...

 

>>For all the negativity, the investment has followed a positive trajectory – 3-9, 5-7, 7-5…<<

 

But against what type of schedule?  Rodriquez was never really in danger of beating *anyone* good in the 7 win season and most of those wins were over dregs (Indiana, Purdue, Connecticut, an ND that looked terrible in the first half of the season, etc.).  In conference he's looked terrible, and that's the big judging stick.

 

>>Jim Harbaugh is an attractive candidate.  He is a Michigan Man, and has done terrifically well at a school without the recruiting pull or football tradition of a major power.  However, Brandon will look at it this way – what differentiates Harbaugh’s success now from Les Miles’ success three years ago?  Further, what differentiates Harbaugh’s success now, with all world QB Andrew Luck, from RR’s success at WVU with all world QB Pat White a few years ago?  What is to guarantee Harbaugh would leave his cushy position at beautiful Palo Alto, at a job with little expectation or pressure, for the pressure cooker at UM?<<

Quite a bit differentiates Harbaugh from Miles:  Harbaugh came into a program in disarray (1-10 in 2006) while Les Miles inherited Nick Saban's players.  Harbaugh's doing it at Stanford, which is one of the toughest places to get players qualified in the D I.  And Harbaugh is probably looking to get out of Stanford before the inevitable happens (no coach has *ever* put together more than 3 consecutive winning seasons at Stanford ever, according to my pre-season college preview mag).  And if Harbaugh's smart enough to know what happens to successful college coaches in the pro's he'll want to go to another program, and Michigan has the best connection.

>>Finally, and most importantly, returning RR for a fourth year will also evidence to other coaches out there that Michigan’s administration is not trigger happy with the pink slip.  It will show coaches around the country that if you get hired at UM, you are going to be given every chance possible to succeed, and patience will be shown.  UM fans with rose colored lenses will bark back that “but this is Michigan and any coach in the country would die for this job!”  Not true.  UM’s is a tough coaching job.  Incredible fan expectations, coupled with heated in-state rival recruiting wars (does Ohio State have to battle an in-state Big 10 school for it’s own players like we do with MSU?  Goodbye Gholston, Thomas, Bullock, etc., etc.).  Brandon will show the nation that he has his coach’s back this off season, and this will position Michigan favorably regardless if RR busts in 2011. If he succeeds, we all exhale. If he fails, we are positioned well for the next hire. <<

*Shakes head saddly*.  You are well and truly reaching with this one.  For one thing, all coaches know that you get three seasons to show true progress (and I've addressed the record already as to why that isn't entirely progress, and coupled with the D you've got a situation of questionable progress) and you are gone (the people talking about "Seeing a complete class through" need to understand that those days went out with tail fins on cars). 

Secondly, a fourth season of Rich Rodriquez doing damage to the program's reputation makes it *much* harder to line-up the next hire (as it stands, the only true candidate we have left is Harbaugh, if RR does more damage we don't even have that). 

Michigan is a tough job right now, but I've seen plenty of "Ranking the D I Coaching Jobs" that place Michigan solidly in the Top 15.  And the righting for Recruits is not really that bad (the only truly top instate recruit that we've lost out on for next year's class is Thomas), and Penn State did it for years with Pittsburgh, and Iowa manages to contend the past several years in a state which has far fewer top line football recruits instate.

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November 22nd, 2010 at 11:30 PM | I'm with the OP. I'll point out... (Score:1)
csam1490
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Joined: 05/08/2009
MGoPoints: 543

I'm with the OP. I'll point out we lost to Toledo two years ago. Beating teams we "should" beat this year is an improvement. 3 of our wins are against bowl-eligible teams, 3 against non-bowl-eligible teams, and one FCS school. Pretty typical for a mediocre BCS team, which is what we are. But it's improvement any way you look at it.

Also, Harbaugh is a good coach. But Gerhart was there for the 1-11 season, not a Harbaugh recruit. Neither were the *three* 5th-year O-lineman. In fact, Stanford's lineup this year is littered with Harris guys. I think they step back BIG next year.

If U-M hires Harbaugh, which wouldn't be terrible, our team will be better than Stanford's next year. But it won't be because of the relative coaching skills of Harbaugh or Rodriguez or the next guy Stanford would have hired. It will be because of the age and experience of the teams, something that people are pooh-poohing a little too quickly here.

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November 22nd, 2010 at 8:21 PM | Jimmy has got a $70,000 (Score:1)
Super J
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Joined: 12/16/2008
MGoPoints: 998

Jimmy has got a $70,000 bathroom.  Why on earth would he leave that?

 

http://sportsbybrooks.com/stanford-coach-harbaugh-gets-70000-bathroom-25772

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November 22nd, 2010 at 9:03 PM | Because Stanford has (Score:1)
NathanFromMCounty
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Joined: 10/10/2010
MGoPoints: 82

always had trouble fielding winning teams, and has never had more than 3 consecutive winning seasons.  Harbaugh's smart enough to get out while the honey offers are still there when he knows that in about 3 years they won't be.

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November 22nd, 2010 at 8:50 PM | If DB fires RR, the (Score:1)
SC Wolverine
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Joined: 08/18/2010
MGoPoints: 1517

If DB fires RR, the likelihood of our offense regressing in 11 is greater than the likelihood of our defense not progressing if RR stays.  WIth Denard, Roy, and company just turning upperclassmen next year, this is the worst possible time to change our head coach.  Moreover, we absolutely cannot face a recruiting disaster this year, which might happen if we lose current commits with a coaching change (yes, I know Dee has said that will not factor, but others?).

 

"Football is happening at Michigan... we have that savoir faire."  Dhani Jones

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November 22nd, 2010 at 9:01 PM | The odds of decommitts are relatively low... (Score:1)
NathanFromMCounty
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Joined: 10/10/2010
MGoPoints: 82

...as most of the O recruits other than D-Hart would probably stay.  The odds of decommits on the Defense would also probably be low as well if it were Harbaugh (though I'm not sure what some of the D-recruits thought of Harbaugh as I know both RR and JH both recruited Beyer, for instance).

The liklihood of the offense regressing isn't *that* high, even if we convert over (looking at the personnel and many of the people save Denard would work in a pro-style offense, and we have Tate or Devin as QB if we switched to a pro-style).

The odds of the D progressing under Rich Rod are pretty bad (he's had 3 years dog) so I'm curious as to where you are getting that.  When it isn't talent (and the number of 4 star D recruits is still pretty good) that results in a D this bad then its coaching and scheme which go directly on the coaches so a coaching switch should see the defense take a large step forward.

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