Recruiting: Irretrievably screwed or just temporarily screwed?
Now that Kelvin Grady's twitter prediction of a weekend announcement has passed, and we hear from Angelique that Brandon and Miles are meeting Tuesday (why not Wednesday Dave? Not like time is a issue is it?) I would like to return to recruiting and ask the question posed in the headline, particularly to those that follow recruiting more closely than I do.
So today is the 10th, and signing day is 2/2. Let's say something surprising happens and we hire someone tomorrow night and announce it Wednesday. So a new coach officially begins on the 12th. A a staff has to be assembled, even if some come with him. That takes a few days. Realistically the staff isn't in place until the weekend. So even on my accelerated schedule for a new hire, the staff doesn't really recruit until the 15th or so. That gives them roughly two weeks to 1-familiarize themselves with the committed recruits through film and persuade them to stay, and 2- try to fill the class (approx. 8 spots open) with new recruits--a harder job since Frost/Hart/Lyons have all committed elsewhere during this transition. Is it even possible to do this in a 2 week timetable?
January 10th, 2011 at 9:40 AM ^
Don't forget the potential bump to recruiting resulting from Les bringing some of his current commits to UM from LSU...there may be a handful, including a QB, that will join Les at UM in 2011 (assuming it is the Hat).
January 10th, 2011 at 10:43 AM ^
The LSU class is outstanding: nine 4* and one 5*, but of those, eight are from LA. I'm not sure many if any of those kids could switch gears this late in the game
LSU is still in on Mickey Johnson, the DT from LA who did consider M at one point. And you're correct there's a QB from Kansas that may not be allergic to the Midwest. But a cursory glance through those 4/5* show little interest in northern schools (though Jarvis Landry and Trai Turner apparently had M offers)
EDIT: LSU is also in on Jernigan. This is all Miles-related, however. It all depends
January 10th, 2011 at 10:50 AM ^
The QB you speak of, Zach Metternberger, is a JC recruit. Based off of Michigan's (nearly complete lack of) JC history, I don't think he'd be coming to Ann Arbor.
January 10th, 2011 at 12:16 PM ^
plead guilty to sexual battery. Given the outcry when Dorsey was on board by the media and some fans, I doubt Mettenberger's history would go over well with the general M fan base, whether JUCO or no. At LSU, maybe a different story.
In that he was on track to be named the starter coming out of spring ball at UGA and Richt decided he had to go -- that says a lot to me.
January 10th, 2011 at 12:31 PM ^
That's where I remember his name from...getting booted from UGA.
Yeah, like you said, thanks but no thanks.
January 10th, 2011 at 9:40 AM ^
I seriously think that it depends on the coach that we hire. Miles is going to be able to bring in some blue chip guys because of his ability to coach and his success at LSU. Hoke on the other hand may be able to keep some of the guys that are already committed but I don't know if he will be able to bring in some high profile guys this year. I may be wrong but that is the way I see it.
January 10th, 2011 at 9:41 AM ^
...could be or maybe not.
- Insert unfounded speculation here.
- Insert sky is falling rhetoric here.
- Insert results of purported ability to see into the future accurately here.
January 10th, 2011 at 9:43 AM ^
I think that we'll probably see one or two big commits or flips from other teams, but beyond that, the 2011 class will be a fiasco. Hopefully, the nonexistent depth chart and the New Coach Effect will give us a huge class in 2012. Without looking at our depth chart by class, I'm guessing we'll be able to sign the max again in '12. Hopefully, the next guy can reengergize recruiting in a way that hasn't been done since RichRod's first full class. I don't even care that much whether the next guy stays very long or wins a lot of games. We need to restock the cupboard on defense immediately.
January 10th, 2011 at 9:47 AM ^
This recruiting class is probably screwed. Arguably our three biggest targets (Zettel, Frost, and Hart) are gone and might be irretrievable. And even if we get a small bump from the new coach, he'll probably have to bring in some "sleepers" just to get a full class.
But as Brandon said, this coaching hire is about more than just one player (or two or three). It's about getting a good coach who will put his players in a position to win. I think we have enough talent to win if there's a competent coach in place.
January 10th, 2011 at 9:48 AM ^
Your backpedal is extraordinary. Can you play corner?
January 10th, 2011 at 9:55 AM ^
So tell me then how our AD, DB could not have foreseen how recruiting would be a mess if he didn't have a plan in place. Or did his plan fail. Obviously, the Dominoes didn't fall as he thought they would.
January 10th, 2011 at 10:08 AM ^
You really have no idea what his plan is/was, so let's not judge it just yet.
January 10th, 2011 at 10:15 AM ^
You're right. Thanks. I'm just beyond frustrated as are many. Go Blue!
January 10th, 2011 at 10:20 AM ^
Don't get wrong - I'm frustrated, too. I just think there's no reason to jump off the ledge right now if some superstar coach/recruiter comes in and rights the ship. I don't think any Michigan fan is happy that we don't have a coach on January 10th, but hopefully things will end well.
January 10th, 2011 at 10:47 AM ^
Narrarated by Charles Woodson:
I find I'm so excited, I can barely sit still or hold a thought in my head. I think it's the excitement only a free man can feel, a free man at the start of a long journey whose conclusion is uncertain. I hope DB can change our program. I hope to see my friend Denard shake and bake in a new system this coming year. I hope the Pacific Coast to the Atlantic Coast fears us again, as they have in my dreams. I hope.
Specal thanks to Shawshank Redemption for the inpiration! Like Andy Dufresne says in his non-verbal retort to Red; regarding Hope being dangerous: "Remember Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies."
I hope...
January 10th, 2011 at 10:55 AM ^
So Magnus, when do we jump off. If we don't get a coach by ...., will you start to panic? We may bring a superstar in to coach, but what if it is too late. We might end of as worst case with less than 10 committed recruits.
IMHO, if we don't get a coach by this weekend, we may see the worst case scenerio. With the dead periods coming up, the new coach may not have anytime to save this class.
January 10th, 2011 at 11:01 AM ^
I would say that if we don't have a coach by Monday, it would be an appropriate time to start to worry.
January 10th, 2011 at 11:16 AM ^
it's monday NOW!!!
January 10th, 2011 at 9:49 AM ^
The next coach will probably have to look into some JUCO transfers anyway to shore up the defense and some possible losses on offense.
January 10th, 2011 at 10:01 AM ^
On getting JUCO transfers into Michigan. If i recall, they've only had 2 recently that I can remember, Shaw and Panter, correct?
January 10th, 2011 at 10:56 AM ^
No offense to the Wildcats of Manhattan, but this ain't Kansas State. I'd be shocked if Michigan went the JUCO route. Not because there's no talent in the JUCO ranks (there is), but because getting a transfer admitted into Michigan is one hell of a task. I don't see it.
January 10th, 2011 at 9:59 AM ^
We MAY salvage our current class and maybe if Miles is hired we can pull atleast a few more recruits, but I wouldn't be surprised if our class was out of the top 25. Way out of the norm for Michigan football.
January 10th, 2011 at 10:51 AM ^
More like being in the 40-50 range.
January 10th, 2011 at 10:57 AM ^
There's about a 2% chance we land a top 25 class regardless of what happens. Top 50 would be nice at this point.
January 10th, 2011 at 10:09 AM ^
It's still a bit early for speculative speculation. Reserving judgment until the pimp hand installs us a head coach by pressing the SEC button.
January 10th, 2011 at 10:14 AM ^
I think if we get a big name coach, i.e., Gruden or Miles ( I know, the odds are against it), they could salvage some of the class. Hoke or others, nyet.
January 10th, 2011 at 10:21 AM ^
Slightly off base but is it just me or does no one else see the talent we do have on the roster? My father in law seems to think the cupboard is more than empty (more like not even built yet) and seems to think that the kids on the roster are flawed beyond saving.
He knows I follow recruiting religously and I do not agree with this assessment at all. IMO Llyod always had 1 stud at 1 position. 1 Awsome QB,WR,OL,DL,DB etc. while the rest were great role players and it worked for his style of ball.
RR on the otherhand needed 11 good players on each side, whose average athleticism was higher than the norm but was heavily dependent on each player playing his position well, which you could argue was his downfall as he always seemed to take a few projects each class at key positions of need rather than a proven player (effect of season record noted)
I do believe that the kids on the roster are great and can fit into any system as football is football, the fundamentals are still the same. Hopefully if Barwis is staying that provides a bit of continuity and we do not see the rash of transfers out of the program.
January 10th, 2011 at 10:33 AM ^
There's plenty of talent on the roster. It just hasn't been maximized. The only position I'm concerned about, unfortunately, is quarterback. Without knowing who the new coach will be, I'm not sure that we have a QB who can handle the starting duties. Denard isn't a dropback passer, Forcier's status is unknown, and Gardner is very inexperienced. So that concerns me, but we'll see who the new coach is.
January 10th, 2011 at 10:44 AM ^
Your comments add a note of reason to a conversation that's had some wild swings. I completely agree that the talent on the roster has probably not been maximized. Re any one position, who knows? Could be the quarterback position, but it might another position that's also very critical. Nose tackle, for instance, in MM decides to go pro.
January 10th, 2011 at 10:52 AM ^
I don't really think we have to worry about Mike Martin leaving early, but I don't have any inside information. I just don't think he'd be a high draft pick, and the lockout should probably scare him away.
January 10th, 2011 at 11:19 AM ^
That feature on him (was in m.go.licious a while back) from the daily or aa.com said that he and his mom often talk about how he wants his degree... my $.02 is that he stays - not that I have any new info or anything
January 10th, 2011 at 11:55 AM ^
Totally agree with that statement. Its scary to think we literally are - this close to having 2008 again with Jack Kennedy as our starter (or @ least 2nd string behind Devin).
January 10th, 2011 at 1:00 PM ^
We have a lot more talent right now than we did when Rodriguez took over. He came in and had 1 returning starter, a sophomore offensive lineman, on offense. He had some defensive talent returning but lost his best defender, Crable, off of a sub-standard U of M defense.
My prediction has been that whoever was the coach, Rodriguez or somone else, that we were going to have a 10 win season in 2011. That is what is truly annoying to me. Someone is going to come in and have a great season because we essentially lose one starter on offense (I count Huyge as co-starter in place of Dorrestein) and one starter on defense (Mouton) with a ton of young talent who got experience last year returning. Combine that with improvment in field goals and we are going to be good. And the new coach will be considered a genius, when it has a lot more to do with the players and groundwork laid by Rodriguez.
I found myself saying after the bowl game that Rodriguez should be fired (first time I felt that way) but I regret it. He should have been kept if we weren't getting Harbaugh.
January 10th, 2011 at 10:24 AM ^
This situation should be filed under the appropriate header.......WE'RE UP SHIT CREEK.
January 10th, 2011 at 10:29 AM ^
Some recruits who are concerned that Rodriguez isn't coaching would have to sign at another school where Rodriguez isn't coaching. An interesting coaching choice could settle them down.
January 10th, 2011 at 10:30 AM ^
The sky is falling!
January 10th, 2011 at 10:46 AM ^
that just might have some validity popped into my head.
Is it possible that the answer to fighting over-recruiting is under-recruiting? Instead of scrambling toward NSD and handing out offers like Chinese restaurant menus, maybe the new coach keeps what he can, signs any studs he can bring in, and then leaves extra room for next year's class. I know on the surface this seems simplistic and dumb, but bear with me.
The benefit of over-recruiting (aside from reserving yourself your very own special section of hell) is that one gets to try out a few extra players; a coach can sift through some three stars to see who'll stick, and who'd be better served receving a form letter. If we fill the 2011 class with three stars, some will invariably pan out. Others won't. Since we play from the moral high ground, every additional offer we throw is a chance to be saddled with four years of non-production on the roster for that scholarship.
In essence, under-recruiting this year allows us to over-recruit next year in a non-reprehensible way, AND recruiting a larger class will happen with an eye towards what positions we'll really need in the coming years under a new coach.
January 10th, 2011 at 11:03 AM ^
The Big Ten has limits on the number of recruits you can sign. The max you can sign under NCAA rules that are in effect for the 2011 recruits is that you can sign a max of 28, and enroll 25 in the fall (the three extra can be early enrolls, or greyshirts). The Big Ten however, will only let you sign up to your 85 scholarship limit. So even if Michigan has 30 scholarships available for the 2012 recruiting class, they can still only sign 28, and enroll 25. So intentionally undersigning this year, doesn't really help us too much. Especially if we see a normal amount of coaching change related attrition.
January 10th, 2011 at 1:45 PM ^
dammit.
January 10th, 2011 at 5:20 PM ^
screwed,if we hire a big time coach say Les Miles,we could get a Zettel to change his mind.If we hire say a Brady Hoke it will be hard for the rest of this recuirting class and the start of next year's also.