Recruiting class rankings with estimations for NR recruits

I really like the Big Ten Recruiting Class Rankings that Tim makes weekly, but I was curious to see what it would look like if the NR prospects were ranked. With that in mind, I decided to make this rough estimation of what that would look like. I didn't put that much work or thought into it, so I don't think it's diary material, but if a mod disagrees with me, feel free to bump it.

My approach was simple: I copied Tim's work, but adjusted the rankings by estimating what the NR prospects would be ranked later. To do this, I used a very crude system of ranking. I seperated the schools into two tiers of recruiting, giving tier 1 NR recruits 3 stars, and tier 2 NR recruits 2.5 stars. Tier 1 schools are the ones who don't settle for more than a few 2 stars in their class, tier 2 schools are the ones who have a considerable amount of 2 stars in their class.

Tier 1: Michigan, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan State, Nebraska

Tier 2: Minnesota, Northwestern, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Purdue, 

The results:

 

Big Ten+ Recruiting Class Rankings
Rank	School	# Commits	Rivals Avg	Scout Avg	ESPN Watchlist	24/7 Avg
1	Michigan	11	3.36	3.54	4	3.54
2	Ohio State	6	3.67	4.00	3	3.83
3	Notre Dame	6	3.50	3.83	2	3.33
4	Penn State	7	3.57	3.43	3	3.71
5	Wisconsin	4	3.75	3.75	3	4.00
6	Michigan State	4	3.00	3.00	1	3.00
7	Minnesota	3	3.00	3.00	1	2.83
8	Nebraska	2	3.00	3.00	1	3.50
9	Northwestern	3	2.67	3.00	0	2.67
10	Illinois	2	2.50	2.75	0	2.5
11	Purdue	1	2.50	2.50	0	3.00
12	Iowa	1	2.50	2.50	0	2.50
13	Indiana	0	-	-	-	-

 

With the updated rankings, Michigan State jumps MInnesota, and Nebraska jumps Northwestern.

My analysis: Michigan stays at the top for now, but once other schools start to fill out their class, I doubt they will stay there unless they can grab a top recruit or two.

Here are the school by school ratings, if you want to read them.

 

#1 Michigan - 11 Commits
Name	Position	State	Rivals	Scout	ESPN	24/7
Royce Jenkins-Stone	LB	MI	4	4	150*	4
James Ross	LB	MI	4	4	150*	4
Joe Bolden	LB	OH	4	4	150*	4
Pharaoh Brown	DE	OH	4	3	NR	4
Devin Funchess	TE	MI	3	4	150*	4
Mario Ojemudia	DE	MI	3	4	NR	3
Kaleb Ringer	LB	OH	3	4	NR	3
Matt Godin	DE	MI	3	3	NR	4
Ben Braden	OL	MI	3	3	NR	3
Caleb Stacey	OL	OH	3	3	NR	3
AJ Williams	TE	OH	3	3	NR	3

Michigan continues to dominate in terms of sheer volume. The averages will look even better once Rivals starts ranking more 3-stars.

#2 Ohio State - 6 Commits
Name	Position	State	Rivals	Scout	ESPN	24/7
Bri'onte Dunn	RB	OH	4	5	150*	4
Kyle Kalis	OL	OH	4	5	150*	4
Joshua Perry	LB	OH	4	4	150*	4
Warren Ball	RB	OH	4	4	NR	4
Jacoby Boren	OL	OH	3	3	NR	4
Frank Epitropoulos	WR	OH	3	3	NR	3

Still nothing new for OSU. I'd be surprised if they get any non-local commits until the NCAA verdict comes out.

#3 Notre Dame - 6 Commits
Name	Position	State	Rivals	Scout	ESPN	24/7
Ronald Darby	CB	MD	4	5	150*	4
Tee Shepard	CB	CA	4	4	150*	4
Taylor Decker	OL	OH	4	4	NR	3
Nick Baratti	S	TX	3	4	NR	3
Justin Ferguson	WR	OH	3	3	150*	3
Scott Daly	LS	IL	3	3	NR	3

No change for ND.

#4 Penn State - 7 Commits
Name	Position	State	Rivals	Scout	ESPN	24/7
Jarron Jones	DT	NY	4	5	150*	5
Camren Williams	LB	MA	4	4	150*	4
Brent Wilkerson	DE	MD	4	3	NR	4
Jamil Pollard	DT	NJ	4	3	NR	3
Brian Gaia	OL	MD	3	3	150*	3
Anthony Stanko	OL	OH	3	3	NR	4
Jesse James	TE	PA	3	3	NR	3

Nittany Lions pick up a middle-of-the-pack lineman in Brian Gaia.

#5 Wisconsin - 4 Commits
Name	Position	State	Rivals	Scout	ESPN	24/7
Dan Voltz	OL	IL	4	4	150*	4
Vince Biegel	LB	WI	4	4	150*	4
Vonte Jackson	RB	WI	4	3	NR	4
Bart Houston	QB	CA	3	4	150*	4

No change for Wisconsin.

#6 Minnesota - 3 Commits
Name	Position	State	Rivals	Scout	ESPN	24/7
Andre McDonald	WR	MN	4	3	150*	3
Philip Nelson	QB	MN	2.5	3	NR	3
Maxx Williams	TE	MN	2.5	3	NR	2.5

Minnesota actually has a Rivals 4-star(!).

#7 Michigan State - 4 Commits
Name	Position	State	Rivals	Scout	ESPN	24/7
Benny McGowan	OL	OH	3	3	150*	3
Riley Bullough	LB	MI	3	3	NR	3
Zach Higgins	OL	OH	3	3	NR	3
Evan Jones	TE	OH	3	3	NR	3

No change for MSU. (go16blue: I would expect for a few of these recruits to be 2 stars this year, given how much were dominating local recruiting, so MSU's rankings are probably a bit inflated)

#8 Northwestern - 3 Commits
Name	Position	State	Rivals	Scout	ESPN	24/7
Malin Jones	RB	IL	3	3	NR	3
Kenton Playko	OL	OH	2.5	3	NR	2.5
Ian Park	OL	PA	2.5	3	NR	2.5

No change for Northwestern.

#9 Nebraska - 2 Commits
Name	Position	State	Rivals	Scout	ESPN	24/7
Michael Rose	LB	MO	3	3	150*	3
Jordan Westerkamp	WR	IL	3	3	NR	4

Highly-rated wideout Jordan Westerkamp picks the Huskers.

#10 Illinois - 2 Commits
Name	Position	State	Rivals	Scout	ESPN	24/7
Elliot Faerber	WR	KS	2.5	3	NR	2.5
Jason Richardson	WR	IL	2.5	2.5	NR	2.5

Illini pick up another wideout.

#11 Purdue - 1 Commit
Name	Position	State	Rivals	Scout	ESPN	24/7
Jordan Shine	S	IN	2.5	2.5	NR	3

24/7 Sports gives Shine a 3-star rating.

#12 Iowa - 1 Commit
Name	Position	State	Rivals	Scout	ESPN	24/7
Mitch Keppy	OL	IL	2.5	2.5	NR	2.5

No change for Iowa.

Indiana is the reverse-champion this year, taking the longest to receive any commitments.