Recruiting class rankings with estimations for NR recruits
I really like the Big Ten Recruiting Class Rankings that Tim makes weekly, but I was curious to see what it would look like if the NR prospects were ranked. With that in mind, I decided to make this rough estimation of what that would look like. I didn't put that much work or thought into it, so I don't think it's diary material, but if a mod disagrees with me, feel free to bump it.
My approach was simple: I copied Tim's work, but adjusted the rankings by estimating what the NR prospects would be ranked later. To do this, I used a very crude system of ranking. I seperated the schools into two tiers of recruiting, giving tier 1 NR recruits 3 stars, and tier 2 NR recruits 2.5 stars. Tier 1 schools are the ones who don't settle for more than a few 2 stars in their class, tier 2 schools are the ones who have a considerable amount of 2 stars in their class.
Tier 1: Michigan, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan State, Nebraska
Tier 2: Minnesota, Northwestern, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Purdue,
The results:
Big Ten+ Recruiting Class Rankings | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | School | # Commits | Rivals Avg | Scout Avg | ESPN Watchlist | 24/7 Avg |
1 | Michigan | 11 | 3.36 | 3.54 | 4 | 3.54 |
2 | Ohio State | 6 | 3.67 | 4.00 | 3 | 3.83 |
3 | Notre Dame | 6 | 3.50 | 3.83 | 2 | 3.33 |
4 | Penn State | 7 | 3.57 | 3.43 | 3 | 3.71 |
5 | Wisconsin | 4 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3 | 4.00 |
6 | Michigan State | 4 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 1 | 3.00 |
7 | Minnesota | 3 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 1 | 2.83 |
8 | Nebraska | 2 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 1 | 3.50 |
9 | Northwestern | 3 | 2.67 | 3.00 | 0 | 2.67 |
10 | Illinois | 2 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 0 | 2.5 |
11 | Purdue | 1 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0 | 3.00 |
12 | Iowa | 1 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0 | 2.50 |
13 | Indiana | 0 | - | - | - | - |
With the updated rankings, Michigan State jumps MInnesota, and Nebraska jumps Northwestern.
My analysis: Michigan stays at the top for now, but once other schools start to fill out their class, I doubt they will stay there unless they can grab a top recruit or two.
Here are the school by school ratings, if you want to read them.
#1 Michigan - 11 Commits | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | ESPN | 24/7 |
Royce Jenkins-Stone | LB | MI | 4 | 4 | 150* | 4 |
James Ross | LB | MI | 4 | 4 | 150* | 4 |
Joe Bolden | LB | OH | 4 | 4 | 150* | 4 |
Pharaoh Brown | DE | OH | 4 | 3 | NR | 4 |
Devin Funchess | TE | MI | 3 | 4 | 150* | 4 |
Mario Ojemudia | DE | MI | 3 | 4 | NR | 3 |
Kaleb Ringer | LB | OH | 3 | 4 | NR | 3 |
Matt Godin | DE | MI | 3 | 3 | NR | 4 |
Ben Braden | OL | MI | 3 | 3 | NR | 3 |
Caleb Stacey | OL | OH | 3 | 3 | NR | 3 |
AJ Williams | TE | OH | 3 | 3 | NR | 3 |
Michigan continues to dominate in terms of sheer volume. The averages will look even better once Rivals starts ranking more 3-stars.
#2 Ohio State - 6 Commits | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | ESPN | 24/7 |
Bri'onte Dunn | RB | OH | 4 | 5 | 150* | 4 |
Kyle Kalis | OL | OH | 4 | 5 | 150* | 4 |
Joshua Perry | LB | OH | 4 | 4 | 150* | 4 |
Warren Ball | RB | OH | 4 | 4 | NR | 4 |
Jacoby Boren | OL | OH | 3 | 3 | NR | 4 |
Frank Epitropoulos | WR | OH | 3 | 3 | NR | 3 |
Still nothing new for OSU. I'd be surprised if they get any non-local commits until the NCAA verdict comes out.
#3 Notre Dame - 6 Commits | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | ESPN | 24/7 |
Ronald Darby | CB | MD | 4 | 5 | 150* | 4 |
Tee Shepard | CB | CA | 4 | 4 | 150* | 4 |
Taylor Decker | OL | OH | 4 | 4 | NR | 3 |
Nick Baratti | S | TX | 3 | 4 | NR | 3 |
Justin Ferguson | WR | OH | 3 | 3 | 150* | 3 |
Scott Daly | LS | IL | 3 | 3 | NR | 3 |
No change for ND.
#4 Penn State - 7 Commits | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | ESPN | 24/7 |
Jarron Jones | DT | NY | 4 | 5 | 150* | 5 |
Camren Williams | LB | MA | 4 | 4 | 150* | 4 |
Brent Wilkerson | DE | MD | 4 | 3 | NR | 4 |
Jamil Pollard | DT | NJ | 4 | 3 | NR | 3 |
Brian Gaia | OL | MD | 3 | 3 | 150* | 3 |
Anthony Stanko | OL | OH | 3 | 3 | NR | 4 |
Jesse James | TE | PA | 3 | 3 | NR | 3 |
Nittany Lions pick up a middle-of-the-pack lineman in Brian Gaia.
#5 Wisconsin - 4 Commits | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | ESPN | 24/7 |
Dan Voltz | OL | IL | 4 | 4 | 150* | 4 |
Vince Biegel | LB | WI | 4 | 4 | 150* | 4 |
Vonte Jackson | RB | WI | 4 | 3 | NR | 4 |
Bart Houston | QB | CA | 3 | 4 | 150* | 4 |
No change for Wisconsin.
#6 Minnesota - 3 Commits | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | ESPN | 24/7 |
Andre McDonald | WR | MN | 4 | 3 | 150* | 3 |
Philip Nelson | QB | MN | 2.5 | 3 | NR | 3 |
Maxx Williams | TE | MN | 2.5 | 3 | NR | 2.5 |
Minnesota actually has a Rivals 4-star(!).
#7 Michigan State - 4 Commits | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | ESPN | 24/7 |
Benny McGowan | OL | OH | 3 | 3 | 150* | 3 |
Riley Bullough | LB | MI | 3 | 3 | NR | 3 |
Zach Higgins | OL | OH | 3 | 3 | NR | 3 |
Evan Jones | TE | OH | 3 | 3 | NR | 3 |
No change for MSU. (go16blue: I would expect for a few of these recruits to be 2 stars this year, given how much were dominating local recruiting, so MSU's rankings are probably a bit inflated)
#8 Northwestern - 3 Commits | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | ESPN | 24/7 |
Malin Jones | RB | IL | 3 | 3 | NR | 3 |
Kenton Playko | OL | OH | 2.5 | 3 | NR | 2.5 |
Ian Park | OL | PA | 2.5 | 3 | NR | 2.5 |
No change for Northwestern.
#9 Nebraska - 2 Commits | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | ESPN | 24/7 |
Michael Rose | LB | MO | 3 | 3 | 150* | 3 |
Jordan Westerkamp | WR | IL | 3 | 3 | NR | 4 |
Highly-rated wideout Jordan Westerkamp picks the Huskers.
#10 Illinois - 2 Commits | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | ESPN | 24/7 |
Elliot Faerber | WR | KS | 2.5 | 3 | NR | 2.5 |
Jason Richardson | WR | IL | 2.5 | 2.5 | NR | 2.5 |
Illini pick up another wideout.
#11 Purdue - 1 Commit | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | ESPN | 24/7 |
Jordan Shine | S | IN | 2.5 | 2.5 | NR | 3 |
24/7 Sports gives Shine a 3-star rating.
#12 Iowa - 1 Commit | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Position | State | Rivals | Scout | ESPN | 24/7 |
Mitch Keppy | OL | IL | 2.5 | 2.5 | NR | 2.5 |
No change for Iowa.
Indiana is the reverse-champion this year, taking the longest to receive any commitments.
I suppose the next step is ranking ESPN prospects
When can we expect to see ESPN rankings? I know we saw what may have been a glimpse on the board earlier, but is there an official release date?
Also, does Rivals have a date where they will release evaluations on the current unranked, or is that process more gradual?
Cool, I was thinking to myself "I wonder how these averages play out in a few months once everyone is ranked?" as I read through the recruiting rankings.
Boom! Done. Get out of my brain.
Instead of doing the tier system you could take a look at average stars from last years (or the average of the last 3-5 years) class and assign that as the value for unranked prospects. Assigning them as average value for their team might be a better indicator.
Yah, mine probably isn't that accurate, but like I said I didn't put too much work into this. If someone wanted to go through old rankings and make a more accurate version of my post, feel free.
I think yours is probably a good indicator. Like you said, it didn't require much work and is probably pretty accurate even compared to doing an in-depth study. It wouldn't surprise me if you did essentially the same work in much less time.
ESPN's rankings always been something of an outlier?
Nice work go16blue! Don't care if it's 100% accurate or not, just a cool analysis to read during a study break.
Also, I saw this on Desmond Howard's twitter and chuckled a little... http://ncaamarket.ncaa.org/jobs/#/detail/4253209
is awesome! That deserves its own separate posting. LOL
We need to steal that WR from Minnesota.
Going to OSU now is like buying a cruise ticket on the Titanic.
Many may start to decommit.
The rest must be heavily medicated
It may not be perfect but it helps give a idea of what it may be like in a few months.
Is it just me or does looking at 13 teams for the Big Ten recruiting rankings seem beyond wierd?
Well, ND isn't in yet. But looking at Nebraska on there does seem strange, yet I can't think of a team that could fit in better right away.
the Lansing State Journal today is running a bunch of articles about recruiting and it sounds like a move to calm the fan base.
Damn Wiscy is off to a great start recruiting this year. Geting some guys that a lot of the big programs want and not just "sleepers".