There are going to be a lot of disappointed young men after this draft.
This is maaaaybe premature there, ESPN. Maryland #1 FWIW.
There are going to be a lot of disappointed young men after this draft.
These kids are listening to agents and the uncertainty of the new rules pushes them to leave early. Once enough wash out/go undrafted, more are likely stay longer in school. It might stay higher than before the new cba, but it won't increase at this stupid rate for too much longer.
If you weren't a lock to get drafted, why wouldn't you stay another year and get your degree?
are basically useless. For many Americans today college degrees are nothing but wall decorations. This is especially true for football players who are routed to "easy" degree programs.
There are many, many jobs for which a bachelor's degree is a prerequisite. Their specific major may not open a ton of doors, but having a degree in itself is pretty important.
waiting tables and working retail too.
That is what the whole debate about college ROI is. e.g., Michigan is 120 in state, and 183 out of state in that ranking: http://www.payscale.com/college-education-value-2013 - and even when you click on the top 20 listings for engineering, computer science or business major ROIs, we aren't on it. Clemson is 133/178. Auburn is 209/279. Bama is 375/515. Georgia is 375/515 and Mr. Clowney's education has an ROI ranking of 780/919.
I'd be willing to bet an African American studies major from UNC for example -- with an ROI rating of 359/490 -- is going to have trouble finding a job if they don't make the NFL. (I have selected this as the most recent public instance of althletes either be guided or taking an easy path through school to stay eligible.)
My neighbor is a huge NC State homer, and the UNC story is one that just keeps on giving. Especially since NC State with their engineering school -- UNC is pretty much a liberal arts college -- has an ROI of 168/207.
I would actually bet that a UNC graduate who played football - even if it's in a crap major - can find work from a friendly fellow alumnus. Being a college athlete gives you networking opportunities down the road that regular students don't have.
(Having said that, a lot of college grads can find work if they really are willing to take what they can find, but a lot simply have overly-high expectations and prefer to be unemployed looking for their "dream job" instead.)
Because no one thinks they're not a lock to be drafted. They've pretty much been the best person of those they've known at sports their entire life to that point with a lot of coat-tail riders stroking their egos.
The "We ain't here to play school" contingent is most likely far more concerned with meeting the minimum academic requirements for eligibility than they are in graduating. In short, they are likely not on target to graduate in four or five years in the first place.
Technically 102. 4 graduated early and left.
If they've graduated, are they really underclassmen? Seems to me if they have graduated, that's kinda moot. And I thought underclassmen typically denoted first and second year.
It can't be organized like baseball and hockey, let them be drafted or not and they have the choice to stay in school. Or at least they can declare, and if not drafted come back to school.
Whoa JT, way to logical.
I'm going to pretend you didn't just say that
the majority of NFL teams are counting on 1-2 starters and multiple contributors out of each draft. In MLB and NHL they're not even expecting to see them on the parent club for years. It would be much more damaging to pin your hopes on the whims of 21 year olds in football.
care more about what the NFL teams want than what's best for the student athlete? Or, OMG, some slimy agent may give them money to buy a suit and a car and take them to parties, and train for the combine?
Either way, if a guy doesn't get drafted, then he's really going to need to get serious about that degree.
the practice squad guys actually make a pretty good income.
MLB draft rules require you to enter or defer for three years, the NHL doesn't require the eligibility-revoking aspects of the NFL and NBA drafts (ex: hiring an agent).
If the NFL or NBA wanted to structure their drafts like either baseball or hockey, it's on them.
Interesting post. Speaks more to the state of the economy than anything else IMO.
It speaks more about the rise of concussion awareness and how the new CBA (in addition to the two years before that when people were panicking whether any football games would be missed because neither side was interested in negotiation) means that there really isn't much point in staying in school to get that first round pay bump if it's not worth much more than a second round contract.
I think this was posted a week ago?? about 98 underclassmen but only 4 from the BIG
I believe that the rule allowing underclassmen to declare was only relaxed in 1990, but it would be interesting to know what the progression has been since then when it comes to how many have declared for the draft. I am pretty sure that, in the early 90s anyway, it could not have been more than a couple dozen each year and it has likely slowly risen each year to this year's total. I want to say that, as late as even 7 or 8 years ago, you probably would not have seen more than 40-50 declare, so if that is indeed true, the doubling is intriguing.
I think 2009 only saw 50 or so declare. That was a record at the time. And then it just kept going on like crazy. I could be wrong about 2009 and 50, but it is right around there. I'll double check.
Edit: A quick google search shows it was right under 50 in 2009. And then went up really fast from there. So yeah not too long ago it was not this high. It's nearly double in 5 years.
I wonder how few of them will actually get a contract, and how few of those will get a second one.
"LSU for the second straight season had the most players of any school to leave early. The Tigers had seven early entrants this season, including wide receivers Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr., after 11 LSU players left early last year."
Yet, they maintain a level competitiveness well above a team that is losing 10-11 players a year.
Does this imply that the players are improving because of the coaching?
That is exactly it....why would these kids potentially get injured when they can jump to the league and start their service clock?
It's the owners bribing the veterans who run the players union. Totally unfair.
Think of players like Ryan leaf who flamed out impressively after getting millions.
We didn't come here to play school
While the intent is to hold down salaries for the NFL teams, the result is more players leaving early to get their years of service in and get to the bigger salaries. It makes sense for top recruits. You can see from the numbers that there will also be many losers.
It does seem like the rules should be allowed to let players return if they are not satisfied with the draft results. It's highly unlikely the NFL will want to change it. Maybe a minor league system for the NFL will come out of this.
did not work out so well the last time it was tried. I'm not sure why the European league failed. Not sure it would work out again.
There will never be a viable minor NFL minor league system. The amount they could pay players wouldn't come close to the value of a free college education. Take off the restrictions and let anyone go whenever they want - very few will be viable less than three years removed from HS. All the fuss is around very few players, like Clowney etc.
I agree. I actually think there could be a successful major junior-type of basketball league, but the fact is that football has just too many scale issues and logistical challenges to produce a new minor league that actually pays players money.
It does put football prospects in an interesting bind, since the age limitation seems artificial, but I think there is some sense in the NFL's position that younger guys, for the most part, are just not ready to play.
It would be just like the NBA. Very few players would be ready, but many would be drafted on potential, with the result being a ton of players paid a lot of money that do little to nothing. The NFL is a smart enough business to require some experience from there potential employees in the form of college football before they hire them. Its a smart move.
Don't get me wrong, they will still draft and pay many players that are not worth it, but if they were drafting straight out of high school it would be far worse.
The problem is running a football team is much, much more expensive than running a basketball team. More equipment, coaches, bigger facilities, insurance and on and on. It's easy to put 12 guys on a basketball team, throw them in a gym with a coach and have a few games.
they could tie the rookie restrictions to your years out of high school, or have some kind of accelerated cap for guys who stay in college four years. But they probably don't care how long guys stay in school.
I like the nfl rookie wage scale. Jamarcus Russell has 30 million reasons why he disagrees with me.
I've always been against the benefit veterans get in terms of salary. Why not let teams pay their players what they're worth, regardless of age. Jamarcus Russel was obviously a bust, but some rookies are ready to play as well as or better than anyone in the league right away. There's no good reason not to give them a contract that matches their abilities.
Of those 4, of those 98, how many did Michigan lose.....oh, sorry
... They get to audition new players for a small fraction of their open-market worth.
It is clearly to the benefit of the battle-hardened survivors of the injury gauntlet otherwise known as NFL veterans - this funnels more of the salary floor to them. That combination means it's unlikely to change at the pro level, since both bargaining sides gain something.
It is not to the benefit of fans of the NFL or of the college game. It is probably not to the aggregate benefit of the underclassmen coming out, since most of them won't make it in the NFL and will need their degree to fall back on. It is likely not to the benefit of the NCAA to have still improving talent sucked out of its game.
The solution seems to be, as others have mentioned, to allow college students to declare for the draft but not lose their eligibility until they sign a contract. That way only the guys who like their status can jump ship for their dream, and the rest can get another shot. That would require the NCAA to both take a practical look at their amateurism principle and be willing to bite the hand that feeds them, even if it's a love bite.
I agree with everything you posted. I think there is simply a timing issue with your proposal of players being able to return to school if they do not like where they were drafted, if at all. The NFL draft isn't until April or May. The NFL is not going to move that date up. That is far too late in the college process to find out if someone is coming back or not. College coaches basically have until NSD which is the first week of February. If oversigning is already an issue at some schools (in say the south and southeastern regions of the country) could you imagine what it would be like if a coach (say Nick Saban for example) found out in May that 3 of his best players would suddenly be around for another year. Somehow three players would no longer be on scholarship. Those dates are just too far apart to find a solution that both the NFL and NCAA will accept.
Is there a reason the date can not be moved up?
In addition to GoBLUinTX comment about it being a great opportunity to get the brand back in front of it's base in the "off-season", the other driving factor is evaluation time. April/May allows for all teams (even those in the Super Bowl) plenty of time to evaluate all the talent. Think of the number of guys who get drafted out of tiny colleges most people have never heard of. It takes time to find and evaluate those players. In a high stakes industry like the NFL, coaches, CEO's, talent evaluators, etc. want every available minute possible to make sure they are going to draft the right players.
I think this has a lot to do with the recent movement to pay players. Also athletes being NIL ready by their freshmen or sophomore years. ie Jadaveon Clowney, Sammy Watkins, Jamie's Winston, etc.
I am betting that all 98 think they are going in the first round.
Maybe players are worried about injuries (witness Clowney and maybe more to the point Marcus Lattimore). The concussion issue is something thats pretty well known if you pay attention to sports on any level. It would follow that your body can only take so much beating as a sum total of cumulative damage (unless punter or fg kicker, etc).
You go out and get the $375k for a rookie minimum salary. Nice pay comparatively. If you wash out in 1 year then having banked some of that (hopefully) you can return to your alma mater and finish things up. Meanwhile you can afford to eat at the Pizza House regularly and probably live in a nice apartment and not some run down student slum rental house. I'm not saying every player is savvy enough to follow this plan but it would make sense to me.
This is a trend that should end, but you never know. Many of these guys will go fouth round or lower, if for no other reason than there are just to many of them. While it makes sense that they want to get the clock started for their next contract, the fact is that leaving early for most of them will mean they may never get to a second contract.
Sadly, NFL teams will give higher draft picks a much longer leash and more opportunities to succeed because of how much more they perceive their investment in a higher draft pick. So, leaving early and being drafted later means teams are less likely to give you the opportunity to succeed.
In my opinion, unless you are a guaranteed top 15 draft pick you should stay in school. Why 15? Because lower than that and you could drop out of the first round, which is not unusual. From a Michigan perspective, Donovan Warren is a great example, if he stays he probably goes in the top 3 rounds and at least gets a chance on an NFL roster.
On a different subject, I find it funny that so many people think the rookie scale is wrong because athletes that don't ultimately play well in the NFL may not get a big pay day. To me it seems like the perfect system. If you actually make it to the NFL and play well you will get a big pay day, if you don't you won't. Granted some that get injured may lose out and I feel bad for them, but ultimately you are still talking about someone not getting paid for not being on the job. If they were smart they got a degree in college and have a ton of opportunities left.
if teams opt to keep lesser players who are younger and have more potential. Really what the contract did is funnel more money to the stars of the league. The lesser players are kind of left to battle to survive. You may see different strategies from teams close to competing. Picking up players who are better quality now and losing teams retaining players in hopes of developing for the future. It obviously happened before but may be emphasized more going forward.
basically enables NFL teams to establish a core group of players without risking a huge upfront investment. Veterans used to complain that the NFL like the NBA paid for potential in handing out huge contracts to top picks. Not anymore.
And because most early entry guys don't last long enough to earn more lucrative second contracts, they basically get screwed by the process. Because after three years, team executives are looking to replace their backups and special team guys with freshly drafted talent.
There was criticism today from a top Senior Bowl official over the ever-increasing number of kids leaving college early for the NFL, noting that in the past draft only 52 of 73 early entry players were actually drafted by league teams. In three years, the number of players going pro has actually doubled, from 46 to 98.
So, the sharp increase in early entry players means a lot of guys are getting bad advice, because even if you don't get drafted and go the free agent route, players like that typically have a harder time making a roster, and usually have to sweat it out on the practice squad where time and attention to their development makes them very expendable.
Besides issues as to physical readiness for the faster pro game, most kids who choose to leave face a whole set of issues they probably aren't mature enough to handle.
However, you look at it, even if kids play three years in college and redshirt a fourth, it takes a certain personlity and will to succeed in the league. And a lot of guys just aren't up to that regardless of their ability.