This is a message the players should get. My first reaction to UM’s predicament was to give up on the team this year. When you are expected to lose both of the next 2 games by significant margins, it’s easy to get discouraged. But then I wondered, what’s the chance that UM could still get to a bowl game this year and end up with a decent record. Given turnovers, missed extra points, injuries, illnesses, unexplained fluctuations in motivation, etc.—how likely is it that UM could steal one of the games Just think: Purdue beat OSU. Navy beat ND. NW beat Iowa…Washington(?state) beat USC….I could go on. The point is that there’s a lot that can happen that is not predictable with certainty even if one team is a big favorite. So what’s the chance that UM might finally catch a break after an otherwise heartbreaking season?
I first calculated the predicted point spreads based on UM OSU AND WI’s Sagarin Predictor ratings to get an idea about the possible point spreads in our next 2 games, as calculated below (the sagarin ratings are actually used by vegas to help set the betting lines, and the rating method chosen actually predicts the outcome of games).
I took a random game on the net that had posted both a 12-14 pt spread and odds roughly comparable to spreads I calculated for UM vs WI (-11 ) and OSU (-15).
I found that UM has a 31% chance of getting to a bowl game and the second most likely final record is 7-6.
Conclusion: A nearly 1/3 chance of a bowl is not a reason for hopelessness…in fact, it’s a far better chance than was the team's early season goal of winning the B10.
So, now is not a time for the team to get discouraged..but rather to redouble their efforts… One of their important goals is still in sight.
In the random game selected, the line for the Favorite = -550 in percent form or -5.5 for Odds/probabilities, as used below)
Similarly, the line for the Underdog was +461 or 4.61`)
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/odds/pointspread and http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/odds/moneyline
HOW TO TRANSLATE ODDS TO WINNING PERCENTAGES
Here's how we translate the odds. If you need to risk 4.6 to win 1 on underdog, this to mean that for ever 4.6 losses, Vegas expects the Underdog to win 1 time. So their unadjusted winning percentage is 1 / (1+4.6) or .18 or 18%. If you have to bet 5.5 to win 1 on the Favorite that means that for every 1 loss, the Favorite will win 5.5 times. Their unadjusted winning percentage is 5.5 / (1+5.5) = .85 or 85%
Here, 18% + 85% is greater than 100% (103%), because of the house advantage. So, we divide each team’s unadjusted Winning % by the total of the two teams 1.01 or 103%.
When we adjust these numbers to correct for the house’s take, we get:
Adjusted Pr favorite wins= .85/1.03=.83
Adjusted Pr underdog wins =.18/1.03=.17
Since this is based on a 12-14 point spread and OSU spread is 15, WI is 11, I based on the Sagarin ratings (see below), I will adust the above probabilities of favorite winning by +.02 for OSU and -.02 for WI.
So Pr OSU wins=.85
Pr WI wins = .81
Thus Pr (both OSU and WI win)=.85*.81= .69.
That means UM has a 1-.69=.31 or 31% chance of beating either OSU or WI and going to a bowl game.
We have a (1-.85)(1-.81)=.094 or 9.4%
Assuming a 50% chance of wiining a bowl game the (getting in is assumed automatic if we are 6-6), we then have
15.5% chance of going 7-6 or 8-5 (10.8% chance of 7-6 and, in the unlikely even we beat OSU and WI, which has a 4.7% chance, going 8-5)
15.5% chance of 6-7 or 7-6 (10.8% chance of 6-7 and, in the unlikely even we beat OSU and WI, which has 4.7% chance, going 7-6)
Summary of record probabilities:
8-5 4.7 % approx 5%
7-6 15.5% (=10.8+4.7) Approx 15%
6-7 10.8% approx 11%
69% chance of going 5-7
Method of computing point spreads based on Sagarin predictor ratings at http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt09.htm
Home field adjustment for Power ratings
MI 69.89+1.5 = 71.39,
OSU 88.02-1.5 =86.52
Difference= 15.13 = approx 15 point spread favoring OSU
Adjustment for home field
UM 69.89-1.5= 68.39
Difference = 79.07 -68.39= 10.68 = approx 11 point spread favoring WI