Realistic Game Predictions

Submitted by GVSUGoBlue on
I am an optimist unlike many on this board and I am holding onto hope of an upset. I am curious how everyone else thinks the game is going to go. Please keep the predictions realistic. My prediction: Ohio 28, Michigan 31 Thanks to a last second field goal by Gibbons. Ohio's defense is allowing almost 30 ppg on the road this year. Keep that in mind. GO BLUE! Beat Ohio!
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I Have A Gnarly Face

November 29th, 2013 at 11:07 AM ^

This seems to be in the ballpark. Ohio averages 47 points per game or something like that. I think our D is good enough to prevent that many points, but only if we had a better offense that can stay on the field longer. The defense will be gassed come 4th quarter.

Joined: 10/14/2013

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Bilg2.0

November 29th, 2013 at 10:32 AM ^

Not sure why, but I think we break all tendencies in this game and we see an offensive performance similar to ND.  We win, dare I say, convincingly.

Michigan 31  OSU 20

 

*I really hope such a victory would not save the job of Borges...Even if a victory comes to pass...1 game does not a trend make, and rivalry games where you try to break tendency are not a holistic view of a coordinators performance or potential for entire seasons.

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gustave ferbert

November 29th, 2013 at 10:36 AM ^

Mattison's defense gives up a ton of points unless it's at the end.  I'm hoping for Brady Hoke's distaste for Ohio forces the coaches to play all out.  What else do we have to lose?  

Ohio State - 24

Michigan - 13

Hoping like hell that I'm wrong. . . 

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Avon Barksdale

November 29th, 2013 at 11:59 AM ^

But are you talking about the same defense that gave us 49 to IU, 40 against PSU, 29 to Sparty, and 20+ to Akron, Connecticut, and Iowa? I don't get where this board gets the idea that "we have such a great defense..."

Yes, compared to our offense, the defense is the strength of our team - which isn't saying much, because we are no where near having a good defense.

Ohio State's offense is much better than IU and runs a similar up tempo style of offense. 60 may not happen, but it is realistic looking at what our team has done to this point, and yes it pains me to say that.

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PeterKlima

November 29th, 2013 at 12:42 PM ^

Hyperbole and anecdotal games aside, it is a solid defense and a good one. Not sure OSU's offense is better than IU's offense. OSU has played some horrid defenses. As for PSU, that was three pvertumes. You think this game is going to overtime? What about the Nebraska game or NW? The MSU game was held together by the defense. It wasn't until late in the game that MSU blew up. In fact, our defense only seems to struggle once the game gets out of hand.

Look at the FEI advanced stats for OSU's offense and Michigan's defense. OSU has the eighth ranked offense and Michigan the seventeenth ranked defense.

Does that equal 60 points?

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steve sharik

November 29th, 2013 at 5:02 PM ^

Why Ohio will score a lot is that they'll have the ball all damn game.

Michigan's FEI offense is #61 (skewed by outliers like CMU, ND, and IU), while Ohio is #20 defensively, and their bad defensive performances were back in September.

Does anyone have November-only FEI stats?  Those would be a better comparison.

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I Have A Gnarly Face

November 29th, 2013 at 11:12 AM ^

You are a better man than I. If we are losing by two touchdowns or more at half and depending on the first drive of the third quarter, I will likely stop watching. Living in Ohio and watching my team get defeated by them too often since 2001, it is just hard to watch. I don't even get excited for this game anymore because I have almost no faith that M can win.

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JTrain

November 29th, 2013 at 10:41 AM ^

I'd love to be more optimistic but with our inability to pick up blitzes… And run the ball.... I just don't feel like we have much of a chance here.
Our defense has been playing pretty good, but we have yet to be able to come up with the big stop when we need it. Combine all this and I just don't see it happening.
Bad guys 49
Us 21

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allintime23

November 29th, 2013 at 10:41 AM ^

I can't pick against Michigan. I hope that somehow we get some luck and that the defense plays it's best game of the year making it a toss up at the end. I'd be so happy if somehow we pulled it off. I know we all would. I'll say Mich 28-24 Ohio

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LSAClassOf2000

November 29th, 2013 at 10:42 AM ^

If it helps at all, the matchup stats over at TeamRankings:

Offense
 Ohio St.  Michigan
Yards/Play 7.1   5.1
Points/Play 0.621   0.463
Rush Play % 61.27%   56.54%
Pass Play % 38.73%   43.46%
Completion % 67.65%   58.39%
3D Conv % 53.17%   37.82%
RZ Scoring % 95.24%   84.44%
Defense
 Ohio St.  Michigan
Opp Yards/Play 4.7   4.8
Opp Points/Play 0.265   0.342
Opp Completion % 59.59%   55.24%
Opp 3D Conv % 34.21%   38.37%
Opp RZ Scoring % 77.42% 

 82.50%

Interestingly, Massey is going with Michigan having an 18% predicted win probabilty, so not great at all, but they have a median score predicted at 42-31. TeamRankings has a prediction more in line with something I could see happening (if we can get a couple good drives going), which is 36-20 Ohio State. That being said, nothing is impossible (merely improbable) in football, and I would love to see my alma mater win. 

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dothepose

November 29th, 2013 at 10:43 AM ^

OSU-63

MICH-13

Meyer will go for style points late in the game when it gets out of hand and our defense becomes demoralized again for the offense putting them in bad spots.

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Leonhall

November 29th, 2013 at 10:47 AM ^

For an upset, it could happen, I just think this team is a year away from upsetting them. I could see an upset next season, we just aren't ready physically or mentally for it, the previous 11 games have demonstrated that. I don't see it happening against Ohio now, next season, possibly.

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