Realistic Game Predictions
See it, I'll be there cheering my ass off... But...
This seems to be in the ballpark. Ohio averages 47 points per game or something like that. I think our D is good enough to prevent that many points, but only if we had a better offense that can stay on the field longer. The defense will be gassed come 4th quarter.
I'll take 49-10 also.
42-39 after a phantom late hit penalty late in the 4th allows us to kneel it out.
Was it really "phantom" though??
I'll take some of what you're smoking. Seems like good shit.
But only one thing will happen
48-9 OSU. The offense gives me no reason to believe we will score a TD.
How does UM score the other 28 points?
Norfleet return (Finally!), Gardner to Gallon twice, and a Green touchdown after a late Ohio turnover in their own red zone.
I like it...when was the last time UM had a KR for a TD?
I know right?
Is it Stonum?
Yeah I believe it was against ND
Given Al's salary I'd say that's more like a $650,000 question...
Mattison's defense gives up a ton of points unless it's at the end. I'm hoping for Brady Hoke's distaste for Ohio forces the coaches to play all out. What else do we have to lose?
Ohio State - 24
Michigan - 13
Hoping like hell that I'm wrong. . .
That was right before Rocky smoked Clubber in three rounds.
You're on fire (see what I did there?) with the analogies today.
Perhaps Hoke has Rocky 3 on repeat in the film room? And very good with the post linking. /clap
This seems a little absurd.
That isn't realistic against our defense.
But are you talking about the same defense that gave us 49 to IU, 40 against PSU, 29 to Sparty, and 20+ to Akron, Connecticut, and Iowa? I don't get where this board gets the idea that "we have such a great defense..."
Yes, compared to our offense, the defense is the strength of our team - which isn't saying much, because we are no where near having a good defense.
Ohio State's offense is much better than IU and runs a similar up tempo style of offense. 60 may not happen, but it is realistic looking at what our team has done to this point, and yes it pains me to say that.
Hyperbole and anecdotal games aside, it is a solid defense and a good one. Not sure OSU's offense is better than IU's offense. OSU has played some horrid defenses. As for PSU, that was three pvertumes. You think this game is going to overtime? What about the Nebraska game or NW? The MSU game was held together by the defense. It wasn't until late in the game that MSU blew up. In fact, our defense only seems to struggle once the game gets out of hand.
Look at the FEI advanced stats for OSU's offense and Michigan's defense. OSU has the eighth ranked offense and Michigan the seventeenth ranked defense.
Does that equal 60 points?
OSU's offense is statistically better than Indiana's in literally every meaningful offensive category with the single exception of passing yardage per game. OSU is averaging 12 pts per game more than IU.
So yes, OSU's offense is better than Indiana's.
Why Ohio will score a lot is that they'll have the ball all damn game.
Michigan's FEI offense is #61 (skewed by outliers like CMU, ND, and IU), while Ohio is #20 defensively, and their bad defensive performances were back in September.
Does anyone have November-only FEI stats? Those would be a better comparison.
I think we get physically manhandled, but keep the score respectable.
Hey - how 'bout an early x-mas miracle on State St. Mich 27 OSU 24. Win turnover war 4-1. One trick play that works. Gallon is huge.
for one on Main St.
I vote for one on scio church
31-6, we wont score a TD.
41-13 ohio over Michigan. My rule with my wife is, if we are down by 20+ at halftime, I am turning off the game.
You are a better man than I. If we are losing by two touchdowns or more at half and depending on the first drive of the third quarter, I will likely stop watching. Living in Ohio and watching my team get defeated by them too often since 2001, it is just hard to watch. I don't even get excited for this game anymore because I have almost no faith that M can win.
I'd love to be more optimistic but with our inability to pick up blitzes… And run the ball.... I just don't feel like we have much of a chance here.
Our defense has been playing pretty good, but we have yet to be able to come up with the big stop when we need it. Combine all this and I just don't see it happening.
Bad guys 49
I can't pick against Michigan. I hope that somehow we get some luck and that the defense plays it's best game of the year making it a toss up at the end. I'd be so happy if somehow we pulled it off. I know we all would. I'll say Mich 28-24 Ohio
If it helps at all, the matchup stats over at TeamRankings:
|Rush Play %||61.27%||56.54%|
|Pass Play %||38.73%||43.46%|
|3D Conv %||53.17%||37.82%|
|RZ Scoring %||95.24%||84.44%|
|Opp Completion %||59.59%||55.24%|
|Opp 3D Conv %||34.21%||38.37%|
|Opp RZ Scoring %||77.42%||
Interestingly, Massey is going with Michigan having an 18% predicted win probabilty, so not great at all, but they have a median score predicted at 42-31. TeamRankings has a prediction more in line with something I could see happening (if we can get a couple good drives going), which is 36-20 Ohio State. That being said, nothing is impossible (merely improbable) in football, and I would love to see my alma mater win.
Meyer will go for style points late in the game when it gets out of hand and our defense becomes demoralized again for the offense putting them in bad spots.
I am in agreement that Ohio will continue to pour it on to try and impress voters and I too was thinking 63-10
Just cause I can't bring myself to type it out I'm going with the 18% upset.
Michigan - 34
OSU - 31
For an upset, it could happen, I just think this team is a year away from upsetting them. I could see an upset next season, we just aren't ready physically or mentally for it, the previous 11 games have demonstrated that. I don't see it happening against Ohio now, next season, possibly.
Let's wait until next year before we decide who will be favored. Pretty weak thing to assume about your own team at this point.
Predictions, does it matter when they are made? Nobody knows, that's why it's called a prediction. Lol.
Michigan has rarely beaten OSU in the last ten years or so, OSU returns a lot of talent, has a 20+ game winning streak, and the game will be in Columbus. If Michigan is favored in that game some serious changes will have happened to both teams.
Pretty much no one goes from a -17 dog at home to a favorite on the road from one year to the next.
I mean this thread is about realism, right?
Something like 38-6 or 38-13 if we actually score a td
Michigan 20 - Ohio State 38.
35-18 Bad guys
I think we come out on offense with some initial success using some stuff we've saved just for this game. Then they'll adjust and we won't have an answer
Defense holds it close early but gives up a few big plays over the top trying to stop the run. Add in an extra garbage time TD by ohio for the final score.
I think we keep it closer than many are predicting. Defense will rise to the occasion and keep us in the game in the first half.
The bad news: OSU adjusts at half, and separates in the 3rd Q.
27-17 bad guys.
M - 31
Ohio - 28
Gibbons hits a FG with 7 seconds left. BRUNETTE GIRLS
The only chance we have is if the defense can force a ton of turnovers and take back a few pick 6's.. but that's not likely.
Michigan - 10
Osu - 28
I have less optimism for this game than for any. Urban Meyer is going to win by 3 TD's..using Rich Rod's offense that "won't work here."
When the FIRE RICH ROD crowd was at their peak and their torches were burning their brightest, I posted that Michigan's nightmare scenario was a return to "Michigan football" while Urban Meyer ended up at Ohio State.
It's even worse than I thought. Michigan doesn't even have the personnel to make this game a spread vs MANBALL referendum.
personnel, Michigan doesn't have the experience and depth on either side of the ball. I don't think the game has anything to do with the merits of either scheme.
Congratulations, Brendan Gibbons!
what to think. I thought the offense might have found something in the Northwestern OTs but then came Iowa. If I were grasping at straws I'd say the offense is best when their back is against the wall and/or they start in their opponent's territory. They need to treat every possession that way Saturday. Somehow Hoke has to cut the game into pieces like that for DG and company. JB does it in basketball, especially earlier when his teams were over matched.
Having said that, the defense needs a wire to wire performance, not something they have yet done.
Do we storm the field IF we win ????
People were on the field after beating that mediocre 2011 Buckeye team. A crummy Michigan team beating undefeated OSU is definitely field-rushin' time
I'll be in Cincy watching the game but if we win I'm going to run around the neighborhood like a crazy person
Where at? I will join you
Deep down I am hoping somehow that team that looked so promising against CMU and ND surfaces again and we have the game of the season. Go Blue!
but I am quite sure that ohio scores at the end of the first half due to another piss poor management of the clock by Hoke.
I'm guessing Funchess or Gallon misses on a bomb early that would have changed the tone of the game and I still sing the victors every time the band plays despite losing 38-13.
Serious question: what good offense have we played? Nebraska without their best player and half their OL? NW? Indiana (about that...)? No one like OSU. Our defense has been nothing better than okay, and that will be made clear tomorrow.
O -- 27
M -- 13.
I feel like i need to justify that we keep it within two touchdowns so here goes: a) Ohio isn't that good they are a product of a garbage conference, b) the boys will be up for a rivalry game and OSU is probably at this point more focused on the Iron Bowl than The Game, c) I think we can score thrice because Borges calls his best game ever in a desperate attempt to keep his job
I wouldn't say this is realistic, but would be ideal.
We win 10-7 with only gaining 125 total yards of offense. A pick six and a FG. Otherwise the D plays great with a bunch of turnovers, but we can't move it and Wile has a lot of work punting all day.
We feel good about the win, but a change still is needed on the OC, OL and so forth.
Realistically, we either lose by more than 3 TDs or win a close one. Nothing in between.
but I don't think we'll hold on
63 - 6
Our offense makes their defense look championship caliber, as per usual.
if the defense isn't worn out by the end of the third quarter or midway through the 4th
We keep it close in the first half (something like 10-10), fail to adjust offensively in the second half and proceed to get steamrolled...
But Michigan's last touchdown is pity points with under 2 minutes left when the game is already done.
I think they find a way.
I look forward to the graphic.
Optimistic: 38-21 Ohio
Realistic: 42-10 Ohio
Urban Meyer goes for two at the end to pour salt in the wound
really? the players are courageous. al borges is the one who is done and should never be spoken of again come january.
We will see a couple plays that are saved up for the OSU game.
Will they be able to execute them? Heh.
Our playmakers Gallon, Funchess, and Gardner give us some semblance of an offense, but Braxton and Hyde are just too much.
Michigan 34 OSU 33
How do you get by in life? I mean, you title this 'realistic' and actually predict Michigan winning. In no realistic scenario does Michigan come close in this game short of a +4 turnover margin. No chance here. Ohio 45 - Michigan 13
I title it realistic so that every reply isn't 100-0 Ohio. I didn't claim my prediction was realistic. I said I was an optimist.
when an ant thinks it's going to beat the boot about to squash it, where does the line between optimism end and insanity begin?
Sadly I think this one could get real out of hand cause I'm not entirely sure of our mental attitude and OSU needs style points for poll voters. Plus they really hate us.
I see two possible scenerios. One where we get a few early breaks and keep the game close but lose 30-21. The other (more realistic scenario for me anyway) has the early breaks go against us we get blown out 52-14.
40-10. Just like the lions game. Go Blue
Can anyone offer advice on how to legally bet on a sports game by correspondence (i.e., without physically going to Vegas)? Are there legit websites? Not familiar with this at all.
Go to your local liquor store and ask for Sal
Not really. Some overseas websites but my advice would be to find a bookee.
Really? The only legal means of sports gambling is to actually travel to Vegas or have someone in Vegas place the bet as a proxy?
And how do you find a bookie? This is all fascinating to me. All I know of this is what I saw in Snatch.
outside of Vegas, to my knowledge. However, you can bet online at sites like bovada.com and sportsbook.com. I can't speak to the legalities of it all but these sites are based offshore somewhere.
Go to Windsor.
That school down south.
31-20. Ohio....we miraculously score 20, but we also score 7-10 for the other team too.
Michigan wins, 19-17.
The last dynamic offense we played was Indiana, who put 47 points up in a game where we scored over 60. We will not have that kind of offensive success this game; it's more realistic to predict that we'll see lots of 3-and-outs.
It's certainly reasonable to think that with OSU's dynamic offense, we could see them put up more than 50 points, but I think we'll see a score in the 40s against our defense.
I could see us not scoring a touchdown, but in all probability we'll be able to get one.
Al Borges 0 Michigan 10 ohio state 56
I'm gonna go with 35-17, bad guys.
But I'll be at the stadium drunk and yelling my hobo head off anyway.
What if all this time Al has been playing dumb. We thought we could muscle our way through most of those games (-msu) and almost did. Now we have ohio thinking we are a complete mess and then boom. 28-10. GO BLUE!!
'Tender, make it a double!
Anything is possible and I will still watch this and hope for an upset, but my gut says 34- 13 with the thirteen coming off two ridiculously short field drives via turnovers (thanks, defense!) and a decent drive that stalls and ends with a FG before Michigan can reach the red zone.
Ohio State 27
Afterwards, the upset is rationalized just like every other upset is rationalized ("well, Gardner does have a lot of raw talent, and plus they had Gallon and Funchess, too, and the D is pretty good....")
Their D isn't great but it's better than Neb or NW, both of which shut us down. I would be surprised if we get more than 250 yards or they get less than 350.
We upset Ohio each time 31-23 and 13-9.
The 1996 season was very similar to this one. The Buckeyes were blowing people out, undefeated, 10-0, and ranked #2. Meanwhile we were 7-3 with a solid defense and an anemic offense under 2nd year OC Fred Jackson (Fred said our offense was like the speed of light but faster and like Atlas but stronger......). We had even lost at Purdue 9-3. Yet the defense kept us in the game and we rebounded from a 9-0 deficit at the half.
Michigan 20, Ohio 17
I don't think the record supports that view. That '96 squad was no juggernaut, but it had four All-Americans (Woodson, Payne, Carr, and Irons), eight All-Big Ten players, had Jon Jansen, Tai Streets, Jerame Tuman, Bowens, Ray, and Adami. Our losses were to 11-2 PSU and 9-3 Northwestern, with the 9-3 loss to Purdue the only loss to a truly bad team. There wasn't anything on the schedule that came close to the near-death experiences we had this year against Akron and UConn.
Ohio State 31, Michigan 17
How pathetic is it that:
1. This is an optimistic pick
2. We still lose by two touchdowns
3. I'd take it
No one wants to see a bunch of clearly articulated facts pointing to a loss! Why don't you white out the words and just add a few more pictures to balance it out.....
Sorry. I forgot this is the internet.
OSU 35 Michigan 27. Michigan plays well for one of the few times this season but loses a heart breaker.
38-6, with no points scored in the 2nd half f
13-6 at half OSU
This sideshow will finally be over until the "Useless Bowl" in which we lose...again bringing this season mercifully to a close.
38-6, with no points scored by U of M in the 2nd half
Not our time to shine! But I will be hoping for a miracle!
20 - 16
Hopefully it's in single digits with the wind chill. Meyer likes to recruit southern boys. Southern boys don't like the cold. If Gardner doesn't miss any open TD 's Michigan could win. OSU is over rated. They have played a weak schedule and barely beat Northwestern. I think MSU will beat them by 10+ points in championship game. Michigan 20 OSU 17.
Could not agree more. MSU can beat OSU . . . thats why we can't assume that the margin of vicotry will be greater here than it was against MSU. We can do this.
Carlos Hyde is a senior from Naples, Florida. Are you saying that he's not going to play well because of the temperature?
The vast majority of the OSU roster is northern, with most of them from Ohio. How cold it is won't be a factor any more for OSU than it will be for Michigan.
I agree that there is nothing to suggest that we can win this game. Simply put, we do nothing well offensively. However, our defense is good and have only given up points because the offense puts them in a bad position. Moreover, unlike the Rich Rod years when we had no chance, we do have the talent to win. In other words, if we bring it we can win. This is a rivalry game and unless Hoke has lost the locker room --- and maybe he has -- this will be far closer than we think. I say: Michigan 24 -- OSU 20.
Close at end of 1st quarter, blown open by the half, and OSU pours more salt into the wound in the second half.
OSU fans stream onto the field after the final gun, and soon there are multiple melées occurring between drunk and obnoxious Buckeye fans and drunk and pissed-off Michigan fans both inside the stadium and outside.
Buckeyes invade Ann Arbor and the Big House like never seen before as red permeates the stadium. OSU sinks Michigan ship to the tune of 34-17 as loud cheers of OHIO ring around the Big House. The sweet tunes of Carmen Ohio are played in victory. Blood is on the field because Kalis told us there will blood on the field and it won't be his. Quote it. Funchess and Hyde both have big games.
I feel like the tried-but-true "PAIN" is a very realistic prediction for tomorrow.
Michigan 28, OSU 10. The war is on and this will go down as one to be remembered in the history of this storied rivalry.
I'd love to see michigan win but I really hate Borges to the point where I'd rather see us lose and he gets fired.
I'd pay to watch you say that in person to Taylor Lewan or Devin Gardner.
You beat me to it by seconds.
I just cannot understand wishing for us to lose this game, regardless of any perceived "silver lining ".
and I don't think a single member of the coaching staff should be automatically immune from criticism, including the S&C staff and Hoke himself.
I draw the line at booing in Michigan Stadium and in wishing for a Michigan loss. This isn't the NFL or NBA when you want your favorite shitty professional team to tank the season so they can get the #1 draft pick.
The vast majority of the players on Michigan's team won't play a single minute of professional ball, and they'll have to make use of their Michigan degree and education to get on with their lives after school. Getting that Michigan degree while playing football (and wrestling, basketball, hockey, swimming, gymnastics, etc etc) requires a level of dedication and discipline that most non-athletes can only dream about. Booing those kids and wishing for them to lose a game just so some fan can feel good about himself is sorta pathetic.
OSU 38, Michigan 10. I think the score is somewhat close at halftime, 17-7 maybe, but then our offense can't get much more and our defense just gets worn down. I bet we see our defense get another turnover followed by a 3 and out by the offense.
Wins 24-21 on Gibbons 8 field goals.
Kidding. Optimistically, Michigan wins 24-21 (just one field goal). Probably more realistically, Ohio wins 35-17.
reading what anybody else has to say, I predict a 9 point loss after leading at the half.
Time-and-time-again, we've seen our Michigan team come out strong, only to fall apart offensively in the second half and blow leads. Nothing I've seen out of Al Borges and Devin Gardner indicates that we've done anything to fix this troubling trend.
UM's offense has been particularly bad in the past 4 games and they are facing probably the best D line that they have faced all year. Though OSU's D has given up a lot of yards and points a couple times this year, they are playing at a very high level lately (when healthy, and they are this week). OSU doesn't hurt itself and rarely puts its D in bad positions. Because of that, UM won't have very many short fields to work with and for a team with just 3 offensive touchdowns in regulation in the past 4 games I really don't see UM scoring more than 13. On the other side of the ball, OSU is built to wear teams down. They will jump out to an early lead as they have done all year long and will ride Carlos all day. Because of multiple 3 and outs by the UM offense, OSU will overwhelm a pretty formidable UM D and will go over 250 yards rushing yet again. Unlike the Wisconsin game Urban keeps his foot on the pedal and wins 45-10.
Our D is good and will be fired up. What happens early will make a big difference in the game. I don't expect our O to do much unless somehow JG can get free to work some magic and DG get's some time to throw, both doubtful but possible. I see it as either 17-7 UM with our Defense playng with a Godzilla-sized chip on their shoulders, plugging up the middle and forcing Miller to throw and BM not playing his best game, and forcing a couple of fumbles as well ... or worst case its 35-7 after 14-7 at half and with OSU coming on strong in the 4th quarter as our D becomes tired due to too many 3 and outs by the O. Meyer does not go for two when up 35-7. He's not Woody.
38-3 bad guys... I want to believe we score more than 3 points, but I have no faith. The 3pts are gifted by the defense picking up a turnover deep in OSU territory. We go backwards on O and kick the FG - sound familiar. It's close-ish at half (17-0) but spirals out of hand after a few 3 & outs by the O. Lots of boos raining down in the 2nd half. I'd might even go 45-3 if Urbz can tack on a nut shot late in the 4th.
Gibbons makes a field goal as time expires for Michigan to avoid the shutout.
Forget realistic I've decided to live in a fantasy world this weekend so here it goes.
Michigan 31 OSU 29. With an OSU failed 2 point conversion in the first half coming back to bite Urban Meyer in the butt.
It's gonna be a 27-13 type game until the 4th quarter when the defense becomes exhausted and broken, giving up two late touchdowns.
Optimistic: 35-31 W
Realistic: 38-28 L
Pessimistic: 45-21 L
I actually think the offense will have success but Ohio's defense will adjust and we score late to make the score look respectable. Hopefully my optimistic prediction comes true, they play the game for a reason. Go Blue! BEAT OHIO!!
heart 23-20 Michigan
head 45-14 ohio
I am not optimistic at all. I say we lose 41-7. Its hard to even get up for this game anymore. Wish we could hold our end up these days. This season has taken a lot out of me. I wish we were as determined to win as those scrubs down south are every year.
Dude .. we won in 11 and almost won last year without our rb or qb. I think we are fine.
They beat us by a FG more than Bama beat us.
Good guys win.
Why? Because fuck you that's why.
But I like your reasoning for an M win.
Their D line will control the run and get a pass rush on their own and just dominate. Urban puts his foot on the gas and UM gets a late turnover for a meaningless score and I'll be drunk.
Michigan's defense keeps them close in the first half before wearing down in the second half....Ohio St. 34 Michigan 10
I honestly see this being like the Notre Dame game, and somehow we pull it out of our ass.
OSU 38, Michigan 6
I hate this feeling of having absolutely no hope but it's back. Just get tomorrow done with.
But if Arkansas can play LSU to the wire, anything can happen tomorrow.
M 34 OSU 31.
There is a team in there that is capable of manhandling Notre Dame. If it shows up, OSU will be exposed. They don't deserve to be in the NC discussion.
OSU has a lot of pressure on them to perform and this is still The Game. They have to beat us like FSU beats on the ACC to have a shot of passing them in the BCS standings (assuming Alabama wins; even if Auburn does, how can you not put a 1-loss SEC team in the National Championship?).
We have no pressure on us but have no horses. I like our D, they will only get better, but the O gives them no cushion, consistently awful field poisition, little time to recuperate and turnovers galore.
It'll be a program-defining game alright...gulp.
I predict me to cheer my a** off and support my team no matter what. If you have sold your tickets to an ohio fan, go find another team to root for. When the going gets tough, the tough get going.....and all the fair weather fans jump ship. Our QB has some real guts taking the hits he has been taking lately, and getting up to continue fighting for his teammates. Yes he has made some mistakes, but I will never doubt this kids toughness. I respect that not one kid on this team has quit on their teammates. These kids are way tougher than their fans. I will be there for my team, cheering as loud as I can.
I teach my kids there is one rule in my family that you never break; you never quit, no matter what. You never quit on a family member, a friend, a teammate or on anything you ever do in life.
We play well tomorrow, and win or loss, my team will always be Michigan.
I hate picking Ohio to win at anything but I will go with:
An upset is always possible, and of course I'm hoping for that. But at a minimum, we have a good chance to compete like Northwestern and Iowa.
Could see a game like the '09 game where the defense over-performs but the offense doesn't get it clickin (surprise surpirse) and Michigan loses by about 12-17 or so.
I'll go 31-17 OSU.
Not looking forward to seeing Henri!
our defense holds us in it early but our offense will completely fail to show up and the floodgates will eventually open up.
I saw upthread that some model gave us 18% chance of winning the game. I think that is absurdly high. I'd say 1.8% is closer to reality. For Michigan to win, the team that played Notre Dame would have to show up, and I haven't seen that team since, well, Notre Dame.
and loses confidence and momentum through the game? We need help and OSU having their worse game of the year along with multiple TO's could do this!
Otherwise OSU wins this 9 out of 10 and 5 them blowouts! But we can only hope that OSU's offense just has a horrible game.
2 hours after our bowl game, anyone not named Hoke or Mattison is fired.
Urban will, in the name of rivalry, pour on the points and not stop. This will ignite a new burning in the crotch sensation for UM who will give Hoke 2 more years to figure it out with his shiny new staff.
sorry, i wanted to bump this thread for people already writing us off for the game. do we never learn? yes, ohio looked great against msu in east lansing but they also lost at home to a terrible va tech team and by all accounts should have lost that game to PSU (horrible B1G officiating). I'm not saying were going to win but i believe this team is still working hard every week. they will show up in against both maryland and osu