chance of bowl: 13.6%
Realistic Game Predictions
See it, I'll be there cheering my ass off... But...
This seems to be in the ballpark. Ohio averages 47 points per game or something like that. I think our D is good enough to prevent that many points, but only if we had a better offense that can stay on the field longer. The defense will be gassed come 4th quarter.
I'll take 49-10 also.
42-39 after a phantom late hit penalty late in the 4th allows us to kneel it out.
Was it really "phantom" though??
not so phantom as much as I immediately put my head in my hands and cursed before a flag was thrown.
I'll take some of what you're smoking. Seems like good shit.
But only one thing will happen
48-9 OSU. The offense gives me no reason to believe we will score a TD.
How does UM score the other 28 points?
Norfleet return (Finally!), Gardner to Gallon twice, and a Green touchdown after a late Ohio turnover in their own red zone.
I like it...when was the last time UM had a KR for a TD?
I know right?
Is it Stonum?
Yeah I believe it was against ND
Given Al's salary I'd say that's more like a $650,000 question...
Mattison's defense gives up a ton of points unless it's at the end. I'm hoping for Brady Hoke's distaste for Ohio forces the coaches to play all out. What else do we have to lose?
Ohio State - 24
Michigan - 13
Hoping like hell that I'm wrong. . .
That was right before Rocky smoked Clubber in three rounds.
You're on fire (see what I did there?) with the analogies today.
Perhaps Hoke has Rocky 3 on repeat in the film room? And very good with the post linking. /clap
This seems a little absurd.
That isn't realistic against our defense.
But are you talking about the same defense that gave us 49 to IU, 40 against PSU, 29 to Sparty, and 20+ to Akron, Connecticut, and Iowa? I don't get where this board gets the idea that "we have such a great defense..."
Yes, compared to our offense, the defense is the strength of our team - which isn't saying much, because we are no where near having a good defense.
Ohio State's offense is much better than IU and runs a similar up tempo style of offense. 60 may not happen, but it is realistic looking at what our team has done to this point, and yes it pains me to say that.
Hyperbole and anecdotal games aside, it is a solid defense and a good one. Not sure OSU's offense is better than IU's offense. OSU has played some horrid defenses. As for PSU, that was three pvertumes. You think this game is going to overtime? What about the Nebraska game or NW? The MSU game was held together by the defense. It wasn't until late in the game that MSU blew up. In fact, our defense only seems to struggle once the game gets out of hand.
Look at the FEI advanced stats for OSU's offense and Michigan's defense. OSU has the eighth ranked offense and Michigan the seventeenth ranked defense.
Does that equal 60 points?
OSU's offense is statistically better than Indiana's in literally every meaningful offensive category with the single exception of passing yardage per game. OSU is averaging 12 pts per game more than IU.
So yes, OSU's offense is better than Indiana's.
Why Ohio will score a lot is that they'll have the ball all damn game.
Michigan's FEI offense is #61 (skewed by outliers like CMU, ND, and IU), while Ohio is #20 defensively, and their bad defensive performances were back in September.
Does anyone have November-only FEI stats? Those would be a better comparison.
I think we get physically manhandled, but keep the score respectable.
Hey - how 'bout an early x-mas miracle on State St. Mich 27 OSU 24. Win turnover war 4-1. One trick play that works. Gallon is huge.
for one on Main St.
I vote for one on scio church
31-6, we wont score a TD.
41-13 ohio over Michigan. My rule with my wife is, if we are down by 20+ at halftime, I am turning off the game.
You are a better man than I. If we are losing by two touchdowns or more at half and depending on the first drive of the third quarter, I will likely stop watching. Living in Ohio and watching my team get defeated by them too often since 2001, it is just hard to watch. I don't even get excited for this game anymore because I have almost no faith that M can win.
I'd love to be more optimistic but with our inability to pick up blitzes… And run the ball.... I just don't feel like we have much of a chance here.
Our defense has been playing pretty good, but we have yet to be able to come up with the big stop when we need it. Combine all this and I just don't see it happening.
Bad guys 49
I can't pick against Michigan. I hope that somehow we get some luck and that the defense plays it's best game of the year making it a toss up at the end. I'd be so happy if somehow we pulled it off. I know we all would. I'll say Mich 28-24 Ohio
If it helps at all, the matchup stats over at TeamRankings:
|Rush Play %||61.27%||56.54%|
|Pass Play %||38.73%||43.46%|
|3D Conv %||53.17%||37.82%|
|RZ Scoring %||95.24%||84.44%|
|Opp Completion %||59.59%||55.24%|
|Opp 3D Conv %||34.21%||38.37%|
|Opp RZ Scoring %||77.42%||
Interestingly, Massey is going with Michigan having an 18% predicted win probabilty, so not great at all, but they have a median score predicted at 42-31. TeamRankings has a prediction more in line with something I could see happening (if we can get a couple good drives going), which is 36-20 Ohio State. That being said, nothing is impossible (merely improbable) in football, and I would love to see my alma mater win.
Meyer will go for style points late in the game when it gets out of hand and our defense becomes demoralized again for the offense putting them in bad spots.
I am in agreement that Ohio will continue to pour it on to try and impress voters and I too was thinking 63-10
It's one thing to look better and be better than a team but if you go into their house and crush them? Kids will be there or see it from home.
Just cause I can't bring myself to type it out I'm going with the 18% upset.
Michigan - 34
OSU - 31
For an upset, it could happen, I just think this team is a year away from upsetting them. I could see an upset next season, we just aren't ready physically or mentally for it, the previous 11 games have demonstrated that. I don't see it happening against Ohio now, next season, possibly.
Let's wait until next year before we decide who will be favored. Pretty weak thing to assume about your own team at this point.
Predictions, does it matter when they are made? Nobody knows, that's why it's called a prediction. Lol.
Michigan has rarely beaten OSU in the last ten years or so, OSU returns a lot of talent, has a 20+ game winning streak, and the game will be in Columbus. If Michigan is favored in that game some serious changes will have happened to both teams.
Pretty much no one goes from a -17 dog at home to a favorite on the road from one year to the next.
I mean this thread is about realism, right?