Realistic expectations for firing timing

Submitted by vablue on
A thought on realistic expectations for the firings to begin. With Penn State, a far worse situation, it took until Thursday for the firing and in retrospect most consider that lightning quick. So while many may want firings now, don't expect them to happen that quickly. I understand the football team has been bad for awhile now, but that is an end of the season friable offense normally. I suspect that unless there is a massive boycott or other such impetus, you will see no movement on the coaching front for some time. I suspect the same is true of the AD position, as I am not confident the current President fully understands the role of athletics at the university just yet. Hope I am wrong on that last point.

karpodiem

September 30th, 2014 at 11:01 AM ^

1) the pool is bad, this is not in dispute

2) non-zero probability that the pool will be better next year

3) allows them to delay an embarassing decision

this isn't a belief, it's an observation. You're right, there is a greater probability that the coaches available next year won't meet that slam dunk hire criteria either. But for the reasons stated above, this is why the AD will decide to not fire him, unless the sub-80K attendance thing happens.

I hope I'm wrong too, but unfortunately this plays out the way I described above.

umchicago

September 30th, 2014 at 11:09 AM ^

i think there is almost zero chance hoke makes it to jan 1.  brandon may be different.  but your point on the coaching pool doesn't make any sense to me.  i don't think a whole new crop of vialble candidates will magically appear on the scene in just one year.  the same guys will be out there.

if brandon goes, the coaching search will be much easier.

karpodiem

September 30th, 2014 at 11:20 AM ^

we have different timelines then as to when we think Hoke will be let go.

we're not the ones making the decision, Brandon is. Brandon will delay until he can't. I think the rationale that Brandon will give to the regents/president will be - look, I want Hoke gone too, but I've conferred with this search firm and even they say that options we have a replacement aren't very good...Oh and I've raised a ton of money for you guys, I want this to get better but we have to stay the course because if we get this wrong, we're just going to be doing this again in 3 or 4 years, just like the span from 2007 to 2010.

gwkrlghl

September 30th, 2014 at 10:24 AM ^

I think the fact that assistants' salaries at Michigan have increased significantly in the last few years is indication that Michigan (or at least Dave Brandon) is changing the way Michigan does things. I forget the numbers, but we're paying really good money for both Mattison and Nuss. I think we'll fork out some cash this time. 

DanaGoBlue

September 30th, 2014 at 8:32 AM ^

Unfortunately I have a bad feeling that nothing is done until after the season. That goes for DB and Hoke. Wrong or right it's just my feeling. This latest debacle, along with mounting losses has really separated the fanbase from the university. I feel disgusted with the whole situation. I will always support the players and continue to watch games, but it just won't be the same until some major changes eltake place.

Number 7

September 30th, 2014 at 8:35 AM ^

my guess: Brandon goes as soon as negotiations with Manuel are far enough along to permit it. Manuel then gets to 'evaluate' Hoke, essentially meaning he gets until December

umbig11

September 30th, 2014 at 8:37 AM ^

Very likely that Brady doesn't make it through the day. I am not so sure about DB. A slightly more political position that requires the President and/or Regents to be involved. I do not think he survives to hire the next FB coach.

alum96

September 30th, 2014 at 8:39 AM ^

Ross said as recently as Friday he supports Brandon so until Ross says bye, Brandon stays.

Hoke is just a pinata at this point for Brandon to keep in front of him to absorb arrows.

It is a toxic environment and no good can come from keeping either around.  Hoke can't recruit for the next 7 weeks - he has no argument or basis to talk to any recruit now.  The player seem lost and nearly disinterested.  You can see through this episode how bad the communication is in the department and I am sure based on how disorganized the team often is, its not just from Hoke up to Brandon but Hoke down through his staff and to the players.

It's just a big pile of turd.  A full fumigation is required.  Hoke is already dead man clapping - its just a matter of when Brandon takes the arrow filled corpse out to the curb; most likely it is convenient to keep the corpse around to absorb all the arrows from the coming losses. 

Bottom line for Brandon- the minute he removes Hoke all attention goes to him.  So keeping the walking dead around for 7 more weeks would be a pure Brandon move.  You have to think like a snake.

It will be interesting to see if a series of 30-10 type scores one after the other after the other cause the snake to remove the walking dead before he wants to.

Mr Miggle

September 30th, 2014 at 9:39 AM ^

That was a very long time ago.

Since then, we've suffered a humiliating loss at home. Our prospects going forward have dropped like a rock. Much worse is that Michigan has found itself the target of the most negative publicity in the school's history. If someone wants to argue the Ed Martin scandal, you might be right and this is number two. I'm not saying it's the worst thing that's ever happened here, but the school is taking a ton of heat. The people most responsible were already on shaky ground, hence Ross' statement of support. The chances of a house cleaning taking place and soon have shot up. A new president with no loyaly to anyone involved is only the icing on the cake.

Maize and Blue…

September 30th, 2014 at 9:56 AM ^

A serious question about Mr. Ross.  Is he only supporting Brandon because he knows Harbaugh would never coach here under that tool (not that I expect Jim to coach here anyways) and he wants him as the Dolphins coach? Or is it justa case of richguy scratching another rich guys back?  Ross has got to see the damage Brandon is doing to the universities reputation.

davidhm

September 30th, 2014 at 10:11 AM ^

I think too much is being made off Ross' contributions to the university. Yea, he likes Dave. But it's not Dave's university either. He's just a guy who happens to be AD. If Ross truly loves his alma mater, and I believe he does, he will continue to support the students/faculty/athletes regardless of who is sitting in the AD's chair.



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allintime23

September 30th, 2014 at 8:46 AM ^

It'll happen this week. Hoke will be fired today and Brandon will resign Sunday evening. If hokes not fired today we won't be able to recruit here again without having everyone mention how the athletes safety is not a priority. Now that it's proven that morris had a concussion this is a no brainier.

Peppers_05

September 30th, 2014 at 8:51 AM ^

The University president needs to be leading from the front on this issue.  The University is taking a pounding in the press and needs the person at the top to public make a statement as to Michigan's stance on what occurred,  Sitting back and letting Hoke and DB make the University look worse in the public is not the way to handle this.  If the President came out and made a statement that fit the montra of leaders and best the national outcry would slow and then fizzle out.  The outcry with the fan base, alumni, and former players would continue until DB was fired and Hoke was dismissed, but it would not have as much of a national following as it does today.

NoVaWolverine

September 30th, 2014 at 11:58 AM ^

I do think all of us on MGoBlog, in the midst of our collective outrage/disappointment at the current state of our football program and athletic department, need to check our expectations about how fast heads will roll, even after something as apparently bad as the handling of Morris last Saturday. UM is a big, bureaucratic institution, and even in our lightning-fast social media age, such institutions always move slowly (and consequently, end up looking terrible). And on top of that, Schlissel's been here what, a few months? And he has admitted to being an academic who knows little about sports. (An aside -- shouldn't this be at least a medium-level consideration when hiring a new UM president? But I digress...) 

Yet everyone here seems to expect Brandon and Hoke to be fired immediately. Schlissel has barely had time to learn who Dave Brandon IS, much less make any sort of determination about whether he's the best long-term fit for the job. Sure, he's getting LOTS of indicators and feedback now, but Schlissel is still in the drinking-from-a-firehose phase of his job.

So, what's reasonable to expect? No moves on the AD front for a while. Schlissel might now be getting the idea that a change is required -- but that's just the first step. If you fire Brandon, who's your interim AD? Does Schlissel (or the people advising him) have anyone lined up for that? (Lloyd Carr? Someone else?) And then you have to start a search for the new permanent AD. You and I know names like Warde Manuel and Brad Bates, but my guess is Schlissel doesn't even have a short-list of potential Brandon replacements yet. 

Hoke getting fired before the end of the season is more plausible, if only because Brandon might need to placate the masses. But I'd still say it's better than 50/50 that Hoke lasts through the end of the season, with Brandon firing him after the OSU game and announcing a new coaching search.

Not the scenario people want right now, I know, but I'm afraid it's the one we're going to get. I'm as upset as anyone, but we need to be realistic about how fast change can happen.

 

samsoccer7

September 30th, 2014 at 9:06 AM ^

I really think the time is now. Let the world know we are officially looking for a new coach. Tell recruits we're gonna have a great coach. Have the team rally around a different voice. This shit isn't working anymore and it's probably gonna get worse. Nobody stepped up for the team after losing to Utah in the minny game. I was expecting an angry team playing for their beloved coach but we got a giant turd instead.

ama11

September 30th, 2014 at 9:11 AM ^

Brandon will be canned by the end of the week. The outrage on twitter and the news is going to crush him. This is really bad publicity for a top 10 University with a medical campus. There is no other move that can stop the storm of bad PR other than a firing of the AD. People aren't blind, he tried to lie and got told to "F*ck Off" by the medical staff!

Schlissel is probably in his office right now urging Bates or Manuel to come to UM, at least I hope he is.

pullin4blue

September 30th, 2014 at 9:17 AM ^

I agree that Brandon is a snake. I also agree that it is good for Brandon to keep Brady around to deflect the heat from himself. However, at some point, Brandon himself has to be evaluated. Annual performance reviews are done at the University of Michigan, and David Brandon is not immune. He has handled many things very poorly and when he is finally measured, he will be found wanting.

As for Steven Ross. The man has already given 300M to the University. How much more do any of you think he is prepared to give? In my opinion, not much. We don't have to worry about Ross, we have to worry about the next "Ross" and many other alums that have the means to be major contributors to this University. This is the University of Michigan, not the University of Ross. The President and Regents have not forgotten that even if the AD has.

Steve in PA

September 30th, 2014 at 9:44 AM ^

 

I don't think he gets whacked before the next game but the interim takes over on Sunday.  Earlier is better now when a coaching change is inevitable.  It gives the interim a chance for a live audition and the search committee (please Lord let the be a committee) a chance to review options and make unofficial contact.

I think Brandon may not last as long as has organization has been exposed as the athletic version of The Keystone Cops.

 

 

BucksSuck

September 30th, 2014 at 11:02 AM ^

Imagine an under the lights game with a 1/2 full stadium and the ones there booing.  We still have to support the team.  All negativity at the games, on message boards and, in the media not only effect the current players but the future players as well.  I understand the coaching issues.  I was behind Hoke until the Notre Dame game.  We have significantly gotten worse every year.  I bought the BS in the past but the product on the field is what it is.  The only thing DB has done is make it harder for my family to afford going to the games and schedule us for primetime games that we cannot compete in.

enigmaingr

September 30th, 2014 at 11:23 AM ^

I'm expecting Hoke to be on the sideline this Saturday for Rutgers. I suspect his last game as coach will be ohio. Anything could happen between now and then. If we win at Rutgers, Hoke will be coaching against PSU; if we lose, or if something like last Saturday happens, I think UM would have to act at that point.

The same thing could be said for every remaining game: one more debacle (i.e. controvery or blowout loss) and he's gone.

Basically, Hoke (and probably Brandon) are on borrowed time. I can't imagine Hoke surviving the year, but I also don't see his firing as imminent (as in this week).

Ray

September 30th, 2014 at 12:06 PM ^

Just trying to get a feel for Schlissel's decisionmaking style.  Hadn't seen these posted anywhere before (apologies if this is repetitive), but thought they were interesting. 

"What I look for in employees at this very senior level is the person has to be technically competent. They have to be good at the substance of the job," he said from his office on the first floor of University Hall at Brown. "They have to be a zealot about what they do, in other words it can't just be a job, it has to be their passion, their hobby, their heart. Finally, the person has to have unquestioned integrity."

http://www.mlive.com/news/ann-arbor/index.ssf/2014/06/presidency_not_only_top_spot_i.html#incart_story_package

http://www.mlive.com/news/ann-arbor/index.ssf/2014/06/university_of_michigans_next_p.html#incart_related_stories

bigfan2959

September 30th, 2014 at 12:19 PM ^

It actually would not at all surprise me for Michigan to rally and beat Rutgers.  Often when a team is really pressed on all sides and down they come out fighting a give a great performance.  I predict a Michigan victory on Saturday.  I think they will come out fired up and look surprising competent. 

I’ve read a number of posts where Hoke has been lambasted for not knowing that Morris was injured and not immediately removing him.  This strikes me a lot of piling on of Hoke.  Most importantly I don’t think Hoke is paid for caring for the players safety, this is at least way down on the list of why he is paid.  This is a barbaric sport and Michigan is in fact a minor league team, regardless of how they like to cloak themselves.  Players come to Michigan as a training ground for the big leagues.  In this sport, players rarely want to come out unless they absolutely have to when they are fighting for a job.  This is a practical reality.  This is the culture and sometimes necessary to get ahead in the arena.  By Hoke allowing the kid to fight on through his pain he was just doing what is done, and what happens all the time on every other NFL and major college football team. 

Hoke isn’t paid his millions of dollars to care for the players well being.  He is paid millions to win games and keep the athletic department and revenues and indirectly University revenues flowing.  If you question rather or not this is true, consider the wrestling coach?  How much is he paid?  Hoke is paid because his program produces lots of revenue. I am not saying he doesn’t care or shouldn’t care, in fact to me it would be unconscionable to not care, I am only saying that is not why he is paid.  What he really needs to do is keep up a façade of caring and not being completely incompetent or unconcerned about a potential injury.

As far as when he is canned, my best guess is now they are going to ride it out until the end of the year.  I will be watching as usual Saturday.

ford_428cj

September 30th, 2014 at 12:34 PM ^

We sure can salvage this season. A new coach right now could inspire the players to perform,  & play with intensity.