RB Recruiting - Does it really matter?
As we (potentially) gear towards a Ty Isaac decision - I began to wonder if landing him is as big of a deal as we all make it out to be.
No question his film is unreal - kid gets into an open space and he's gone. There is also no question that Joliet, IL doesn't provide the stiffest competition, either.
Anyway, I wanted to bring this topic up because of our history with RB recruiting and how the results have deviated from the expected return. Let's take a look at the 4+ star RB commits (per Rivals) we have received from 2002-2011:
Darnell Hood (2002), Pierre Rembert (2002), Jerome Jackson (2003), Max Martin (2004), Kevin Grady (5 stars) (2005), Carlos Brown (2006), Brandon Minor (2006), Sam McGuffie (2008), Mike Shaw (2008), Fitzgerald Toussaint (2009), and Justice Hayes (2011).
That is an odd mix of guys that never did anything (e.g., Hood, Rembert), guys who severely disappointed for some reason (Grady, McGuffie), and one guy that became a significant contributor (Fitz).
You could argue "BUT MIKE HART WAS THERE" and thus there weren't a lot of opportunities for the 4 star guys, but that would just help my point. You could also argue that at one point Brown and Minor were an effective tandem (they were, especially given our lack of talent at QB), but neither one of them lived up to 4-star billing in my opinion.
So, as the decision date for Isaac nears - please do not have one giant collective freak out if he chooses USC over us. There are plenty of other examples of recent RBs we missed on, got angry about, and then saw their careers tarnish relatively quickly (think Dee Hart and Dillon Baxter for completely different reasons).
The trend in the NFL is that its become such a passer's league, drafting running backs early is considered a waste of resources.
It could very well become the same at the NCAA level, where missing on 4-5 star RBs isn't considered a big deal as long as you lock up your 5 star quarterback and 4-5 star O-line.
I watched a good bit of it last night on BTN. Anthony Thomas, one of the best RB we have seen at Michigan over the last two decades, was pretty much bottled up. But Brady had all day to throw behind a steller OL and he shredded Alabama. His numbers would have been even better except for several passes that could have been caught but were not. So you may be on to something. Yeah, it was Tom Brady, but the OL gave him the time he needed.
Dude, Brandon Minor was one of the best backs we've had in a while; his problem was that he was plagued by injuries. The dude was an absolute beast and was excellent running in a zone blocking scheme.
Brown and Minor did not even combine for 1000 yds together. If this is effective, then Hell yes, RB recruiting matters.
I don't start getting excited about any recruit until they commit. I also don't expect kids with 4-5 star ratings to necessarily be better than the 2-3 star kids we recruit. So much of the star rating has to do with things like physical size and whether a kid attends camps. It just doesn't make sense to get too worked up over these things.
I personally think it's much more important to recruit high-caliber offensive linemen than high-caliber running backs. However, having both is a good thing.
This would be a more interesting diary with data over the entire NCAA rather than just UM. You could find out which position group was more likely to live up to their recruiting ranking, etc. If the Mathlete hasn't yet done this, I say we commision him to do so...
In the period you mention, Michigan frequently struggled with the running game (except when we had Mike Hart) BECAUSE we did not have as much talent as we've had in the past. And to be fair, some of those guys were pretty significant recruits (Grady and McGuffie) who didn't work out for various reasons. (I think you may have left out legendary 5* flameout Kelly Baraka)
I think Michigan must get back to signing elite RB's like Isaac. Back in the old days, Bo would sign more backs because of the reason bama blue mentions above. Not all of them pan out. Plus, of course, the running attack was the main part of Bo's offense. But, the concept still applies today.
I might argue that Michigan's offensive line recruiting somewhat negates the need for a stellar running back, but I don't agree that getting someone of Isaac's caliber doesn't matter.
I agree completely. Plus I actually like the backs we have in '12/'13 already. That is not to say I wouldn't love to add Isaac to the mix, but other positions and players are more important IMO (ie Treadwell, Allen, Poggi).
That was my overall opinion as well - OL is key, and we should be stacked at that group going forward. RB matters, but to a MUCH lesser extent than most people realize.
Michigan does not have a shortage of talented RBs. Issac would be a nice get, but definitely not a need. If I had to choose between Issac and Poggi, or Issac and Treadwell, I would take the DT or WR..
I have NEVER been one to freak out over recruiting, or even post about who we aren't getting. Nonetheless, TRENDS are worthy of some note.
I don't understand why RBs and WRs aren't flocking to play with DG and Sweet-Sugar Shane and run behind the OL we're building. Our WR haul for 2012 is good -- especially considering the quality characters of the two kids -- but not athletically spectacular. No RB in 2012, and only one big-name RB for 2013 (the Shallman kid being the second RB and not clear if he'll even play that, despite his assurances that he will). No WR for 2013 (yet).
Is this a position-coach problem? (Makes no sense for the RB position.) OR, are opposing coaches pointing out that NO Michigan RB has been dominant in the pros -- we've had them in the pros but they flame out or become journeymen. Mostly true of our WRs also, but many UM WRs have had very solid pro careers and helped win Superbowls. That just doesn't seem like a really valid knock on us, overall.
So I don't get why RB and WR is being such a difficult spot to recruit for us.
Oh, wait, right -- see, maybe Sparty and D'Antonio are the reason. Forgot about them.
Dude, it's May.
I was unaware that we didn't pick up any runningbacks in 2012...
We did, but you can't look at them for something like this since they haven't played in college yet. Of course this is me assuming you are being serious.
Edit: Never mind, maybe I should read above you before replying.
Top WRs aren't committing at the astonishing pace other position groups are. TomVH has been repeatedly driving this point home behind paywalls. Most of the top WRs are not committed. This is not a Michigan problem. And btw... you're completely ignoring Jaron Dukes '13 WR.
Numerous folks have commented that WRs tend to commit later than other position groups. While many reasons probably exist, the prima donna aspect often gets mentioned.
Uh, I think Jaron Dukes might dispute your "no WR for 2013" cliam... although I suppose he does not meet your athletically spectacular criterion... and I agree with your general point that it would seem RBs and WRs should be salivating to play for UM.
As discussed previously, there are multiple factors at play. Elite skill players don't commit early as often as less talented guys, and there's a paucity of elite talent at both WR and RB in the region (most recruiting is regional).
Not sure if RB's are not flocking.... I think Michigan this year has not offered as many because of depth (was at 1, then 2 and a maybe). I don't believe Michigan has a problem in attracting good RB talent or that is used against us. I believe it is just a case where the remaining openings are chasing kids with the most options and can afford to be uber selective. Isaac has had a lot of suitors from a very early stage. He was in Chuck Martin's back pocket back at the 11 ND spring game and it hasn't slowed down for him since. Smith has a lot of offers and Shallman did too although he is a combo kind of recruit.
Michigan has only offered 9 running backs. Four are uncommitted: Isaac, Green, Wilkins, and Davis.
First off, Joliet Catholic is a good program that does play against good teams. It's not like he's racking up stats against Illinois' worst teams.
Second, he also ran for 515 yards on 26 carries in the state championship game. So even if he did rack up stats against inferior competition, he replicated that production against the best 5A team in the state (his team lost).
515 yds on 26 carries- that is absurd!!
Thats almost 20 yds a carry...
Kid looks like a beast- it'd be amazing to get him- but with some good RB recruits already and a crazy OL I'm not gonna go crazy if we don't land him- but I sure do want him to become a Michigan Man.
Yeah...and his team lost 70-45! haha
Which proves the OP's point: running back recruiting doesn't have a serious impact on total defense.
Wait... what?
I think that's certainly true in the NFL, but is it so in college? So many teams rely on read options that require a potent running threat, and teams can often rely on decent QB play coupled with excellent running games.
There is definate star inflation with the competition amongst rating services and the interweb. I believe it is a great question in that the "pan out" factor is elusive for this position if you look at 4 and 5 star guys. Curious if this is the same for all postion groups. I do believe he would be a top player in the 90's or 00's. Maybe not a 5 star.
is occurring at the 4 star level, not the 5 star level. ESPN still gives out like 15 5 stars, Rivals between 25-35, Scout 50, and 247 a relatively small number.
I think it makes a difference in this case...if he can do it like Wheatley did ... pls MOAR RB...
Does he have the power and speed to go over and around people like that? This kid looks like he can do both - the you tube clips look like it - but I defer to those in the know.Thanks for posting this! Tyrone Wheatly... silky smooth speed. He made ALL pursuit angles look bad! One of my favorite Michigan running backs of all time.
I forgot that he returned kicks too. What a monster. Plus, he liked wearing those middle linebacker pads that made him look like a 300 pounder.
Brandon Minor was one of the great casualties of RR's questionable personnel decisions. And of a Lloyd Carr memorial burned redshirt. He probably could have had one of the best years by a running back if he had a 5th year in 2010 and ran beside Denard.
How often do tailbacks ever redshirt, though? It seems like the only times it happens are when they get hurt.
I think you need to look at each situation individually. First, it is fundamental to note that Hart was an anomoly. Just because a certain 3-star made it better than most, doesn't mean that is going to be the case most of the time. Hart also had a pretty damn good offer list, so his rating is still a bit of a mystery.
Hood/Rembert: didn't live up to the hype, but were also stuck behind stiff compitition. They weren't going to take carries from Perry/Askew. Then Hart and company arrived.
Jackson: Proved to be solid when he was on the field (even had a 100 yard game). IMO could have been a solid back for Michigan if Hart hadn't come in and dominated.
Martin: Other than a case of fumble-itis, Martin wasn't bad. He averaged over 4.2 yards a carry his first two years in limited action. The problem was, he fumbled the ball, he was behind Hart, and Grady had pretty big potential.
Grady: Had potential, but was a bit head-case. Hard to predict that stuff.
Brown/Minor: Both displayed the ability to be quality Big Ten RBs. Neither could stay heathy, but both had the talent to deserve their 4-star rank and both had games of over 100 yards rushing. Minor, in particular, showed what he could do even behind a suspect O-line.
McGuffie: needed to be redshirted, probably was more of a slot than a RB. I would say you could classify him as a bust regardless. It does still happen like at other positions.
Shaw: I think Shaw could have been fine. He looked better than McGuffie as a Freshman IMO. He looked alright when he was given consistent carries. Look at his career numbers though (42/215 yards/5.2, 42/185/4.4, 75/402/5.4, 31/199/6.4), they aren't bad. I think he just tended to get lost/injured/etc. He was a better RB than he was given credit for (note, I understand he stats are slightly inflated because he got a lot of carries against weaker compitition, but nonetheless).
Fitz: Just came off of a 1000 yard season and looked really good in Spring
Hayes: I don't think you can really look at someone who hasn't played a down yet.
I WILL PANIC IF I WANT TO PANIC
Isaac for the most part stays silent about his intentions as far as his recruiting goes. He doesn't seem to me like one of the kids that is all about attention from fans and coaches and things like that. With that said, It would be great to land him, but due to the talent we already have and will continue to land, you are right there really is no reason to freakout. At the same time he would be a huge pickup and really help the class shine even more. It's never a bad thing when you are in a neck and neck recruiting battle with USC. If we get him it will be awesome, but if we miss we move forward and wish the kid luck. To help any pain on the chances that we do miss on him here is a picture of Hoke recieving the Sugar Bowl trophy. Enjoy.
no, that would be awful.
Someone's going to end up being really good if you stockpile enough 4 stars
If we don't, I'll feel like a sad panda for a day or two, then look forward to getting the next RB the coaches will be targeting.
I'm sure one of our future backs will do quite well running behind the talented OL the coaches are assembling!
He'd be a great get, and welcome addition, but recruiting is a numbers game. No one recruit matters that much. Now, the recruiting class as a whole, then yes, you want a number of good players at all the positions, over a long period of time. If it's not Isaac, it'll be someone else we've already recruited, or will recruit later. It's the same way a few 3 star guys don't kill you either...because they may be better than the 4 star guys, who have as much chance to bust as the 3 star guys to overachieve. But as a whole you don't want a team full of 3 stars, at RB or anywhere else, because you increase your chance to fail (and the need for more of them to surpass their rankings. So give me a class full of 4*'s with a 3* RB than a class of 3*'s with a 5* RB.
"No recruit matters that much." I wish someone would have told me that back when we were on Dee Hart watch. That whole saga took about 3 years off of my life.
I don't understand this argument at all. You're saying the hit rate on running backs is low, right? Wouldn't that make it more important to get another RB in this class, so that we have a better chance of one of them being a star?
I think we can all agree that having a good RB is important. Therefore, recruiting 3 of them gives us a better shot at one being a star than recruiting 2 of them, right?
Your argument saying "Ty Isaac might not pan out because look at all of these running backs who didn't pan out" would also apply to Deveon Smith and Wyatt Shallman, right? I could use your same data and say "based on this, it's a high possibility that Deveon Smith and Wyatt Shallman don't pan out, so we need another 4-5 star RB in this class to make sure one is good."
Hit rate on RBs is low compared to other position groups, yes.
Isaac not a guaranteed success, yes.
What I didn't mention is that if we don't get Isaac we are in a good sot for Derrick Green, who would be more than adequate to replace the loss that Isaac could be.
THOSE ARE MY POINTS. QUIT BEING SUCH JERKS.