Ranking 2015 Football Opponents
TL;DR - Michigan has 6 quite tough games in 2015. Please keep it in mind as your project a 9-10 win season with generic 2015 coach that might rhyme with Tarbaugh.
Long form -
With 1 game to go (mercifully) barring miracle all eyes turn to Jim Harbaugh's hiring the coaching search and 2015. Obviously a lot can change in 4 months - my thesis back then was a now seasoned Shane Morris would be able to give us a great chance in a tough venue in Utah before settling in for his junior year where he should be the 3rd to 4th best QB in a league sadly lacking in QB talent. A very favorable schedule with both OSU and MSU at home would lead to a Hoke led team challenging for the Big 10 title. Well, it's a different narrative now. Let's take an early look at the "easy" 2015 schedule with opponents ranked by quality / location of game / and when in the schedule.
With UM avoiding Wisconsin yet again and no big name non conf opponent and the 2 rivals at home, I still think this is one of the easiest schedules they will face over the next decade but the fact it poses some serious challenges speaks to our situation.
Tier 1 - very challenging games
- OSU - Like Michigan OSU is young this year, especially on offense. Somehow they have taken a QB from the same 2013 class as Shane with no first team reps until deep in August, and a bevy of newbie OL and built a pretty damn daunting offense. That will only be better next year - they also have what looks to be a special RB in Elliott and Jalin Marshall is the type of X factor massive ceiling player we dream of having. At least they have that meh defense. Ex monster child Bosa.
- MSU - Much like UM basketball is not going anywhere until Beilein retires, neither is MSU football. They won't all be championship level years but you will get a team that has an identity and doesn't implode mentally like they did for 45 years. The wildcard here is early entries - Cook, Calhoun, and Waynes. Losing all 3 would push MSU down the ranking as that is the #1 QB, #1 CB, and #1 DE. The gut feel is Waynes is gone as he will be the 1st or 2nd ranked CB in the draft, Cook returns, and Calhoun is on the fence as his play has dropped him from top 10 in drafts to late in the 1st. Until UM develops a competent passing attack the MSU defense won't be solved - Oregon and OSU have shown the way, but UM needs to field a reliable passing QB to replicate it.
- @Utah - Kyle Whittingham has taken a bunch of 3 stars and built them into a quality product ready to be respectable in the Pac 12, after a few years of conversion from Mountain West to Pac 12. They do lose the fantastic Nate Orchard (dear Lions, please choose him in the 3rd) but was able to beat UM with a 90th type ranked offense this year. It will be at home for Utah, in a new coach's first game with a QB who either will be brand new or game 1 of the Shane Morris reclamation project.
- @Minnesota - Bravo to Jerry Kill. He is building a very nice program (not team) at Minnesota. It is no longer a foregone conclusion we win the Brown Jug. Minnesota gave OSU - a much better team than UM - all it could handle at home, and destroyed Iowa and Michigan this year. They do lose Cobb so we'll see if Kill has Minnesota in "plug and play" mode next year in terms of ability to throw any damn dude into that offense and go for mega yards on the ground. The defense is solid.
- BYU - remember this name: Taysom Hill. He is the breed of QB that has created nightmares for UM fan for 20+ years. BYU lost Hill to season ending injury in the first week of October and promptly went on a long losing streak. This dynamic dual threat QB returns in 2015 and BYU is a well coached team that often plays in tough venues as an independent. We will know what to expect with BYU by game 4 as they will play @Nebraska and @UCLA (and host Boise State) before showing up for game 4 in Michigan Stadium. This has "Utah 2014" - with a much more dynamic playmaker at the helm - written all over it.
- @PSU - Much like UM's OL the 2015 PSU OL should move up from bad to some form of not bad. The open question of 2015 will be the state of Hackenberg. Is he permanently damaged in a Devin Gardner post 2013 way? Or will he have a major junior bounce after the sophomore blues? It really comes down to that for PSU as they have an excellent DC and will bring a solid D to the game.
Tier 2 - everyone else
- @Maryland - CJ Brown ends his 6 year reign. We won't have to face Stefon Diggs and his massive talent again. Wait - what's that? Oh... uhh.... ok then. Well whatever the case Maryland's offense loses its starting QB although they do have a backup who has played some this year, and their one true offense threat. But it's a road game vs a team that is functionally Michigan's 2014 equivalent so they get spot 1 in this tier.
- @Indiana - Indiana will return no defense but should rebound offensively as Sudfeld returns to actually pose the ability to throw the ball, something lacking the past 5 games for Indiana. Tevin Coleman goes on to the NFL (dear Detroit Lions, 2nd round for this guy please). Indiana does return its HS level defense so thankfully some things never change. But the ability for that offense to put up big #s 5-6x a year poses an issue.
- Northwestern - for most teams I'd have ranked Northwestern a few spots higher but even Brady Hoke went 4-0 against Northwestern. Michigan has some form of rabbit's foot against this squad.
- Rutgers - Gary Nova, who statistically is the 3rd best QB in the Big 10 this year, departs. For most teams on Rutgers schedule that would be irrelevent but for UM that is a major sigh of relief. Talented RB Paul James returns from ACL and will pose a threat. Leonte Carroo does return for his senior campaign as WR - but who will throw it to him? The defense for Rutgers is mostly mediocre.
- Oregon State - OSU west would have posed more of a problem in 2014 than 2015 as NFL prospect Sean Mannion graduates. This is a very mediocre Pac 12 team even with Mannion on it, in current state.
- UNLV - they bad. Real bad.
November 24th, 2014 at 12:39 PM ^
If Hoke were to return, I would feel comfortable predicting exactly one game as a sure win: UNLV.
November 24th, 2014 at 12:40 PM ^
3-4 losses. don't care who the next coach is, this team has no proven qb or skill players.
November 24th, 2014 at 12:44 PM ^
If Cook, Calhoun, and Waynes go pro, I see their season playing out like 2 years ago for them. A bunch of close games with them struggling to get to 7 or 8 wins.
November 24th, 2014 at 12:51 PM ^
They host Oregon without Mariotta and aside from @Nebraska have a very similar schedule to UM in conference. They do have @OSU and @UM on the road which in most years should be a challenge but I'm not sure @UM is going to be one in 2015 unfortunately unless we get a passing QB to function. If Cook goes it obviously hurts. Waynes is also a very good CB and that defense relies on CBs to be able to play on an island so Hicks would go from #2 CB to #1 CB and they'd have to break in a new guy as the #2 CB. And Hick was benched this week in favor of Tony Lippett (their WR who was once a CB) as the #2 CB. He'd be a close choice for as big of a loss as Cook.
I think Calhoun is manageable as a loss - he is a bit overrated due to recovering a bunch of fumbles last year that his teammates created. Cook and Waynes staying or going will be the 2 big ones. They do lose Langford and Lippett.
November 24th, 2014 at 12:44 PM ^
I would move Penn St to the "Everyone Else" category as until they prove otherwise, they're a crappy football team.
And it's also really sad that noone on our conference schedule outside of MSU,OSU and Minnesota are part of a discussion as to being better/worse than two schools in Utah. The B1G is awful. It will get better if Michigan gets Harbaugh, but it'll never be elite as long as Nebraska and Iowa are stuck with their coaches in purgatory.
November 24th, 2014 at 12:56 PM ^
PSU is a mirror of UM right now - not a "crappy football team" IMO but a horrid offense paired with a respectable defense - althought I think their defense is better than ours based on how they handled Rutgers and OSU. Recall, they played OSU tight at home - OSU is way better than us so this will be a challenge for our 2015 squad. And it's on the road. I also have to believe Hackenberg rebounds to be at least average - he is horrid this year.
And yes the Big 10 is ripe for the taking. This is why Urban Meyer is 23-0 in 3 years of regular season games in the Big 10 leading to this week. A Carr type of team probably would have been 20-3 in that same time frame - the Big 10 is sad. Which makes our situation that much worse. Basically 2-3 quality teams at the top, 2 decent teams in Neb / Minn and then a free fall to "everyone else" who are all interchangeable at this point.
November 24th, 2014 at 12:47 PM ^
With Harbaugh, 12-0. No question.
In all seriousness, show me a quarterback that can be competent before we start totaling wins or losses.
November 24th, 2014 at 6:58 PM ^
In all seriousness, how well can Jabrill throw...?
November 24th, 2014 at 12:51 PM ^
What a crappy prospect. "Transition year", then back to road games against Dick and Prick in 2016. See you in '17...
November 24th, 2014 at 12:53 PM ^
I'd have Oregon State a lot higher. "Mediocre PAC" team should strike fear, not provide comfort
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November 24th, 2014 at 1:01 PM ^
Most years I would have them higher. But they are a pretty bad team and lose their star QB. (who has not really played that great this year). If it was at Oregon State I'd probably put it in tier 1 but I don't see them as a very good squad.
November 24th, 2014 at 2:10 PM ^
Thing is that team is always pretty well coached and manages to mine the 3-star national landscape to consistently find NFL caliber talent in a way that Michigan (and many other programs) should be jealous of. The NFL guy they do have - they make the most of his skills.
I agree with the comment above - a mediocre Pac12 team is scarier than a good Big10 team right now (e.g., PSU). OSU is a bit below average without Mannion but that game will be very very loseable.
November 24th, 2014 at 1:06 PM ^
Me too. I'd take PSU any day before the beav.
November 24th, 2014 at 1:14 PM ^
I love how the board has gone completely into offseason mode. If I don't think about the OSU game it doesn't exist!
November 24th, 2014 at 1:16 PM ^
This exercise only goes so far because it is utilizing current data, but consider that Michigan's current Sagarin rating is 70.36, which is 63rd overall - it probably will be within a few points of that around this time next week too.
The 2015 schedule using current numbers:
Utah (away) - 79.35
Oregon State - 68.21
UNLV - 50.13
BYU - 73.56
Maryland - 75.39
Northwestern - 72.19
Michigan State - 89.13
Minnesota - 76.85
Rutgers - 66.65
Indiana - 63.88
Penn St. - 72.98
Ohio St. - 88.96
This doesn't account for what teams might gain / lose, so all qualifiers on way-too-early predictions apply, but if you played it out with current data - I'll put like this - the average rating of this schedule is higher than our current one. You would also have to consider that not all wins / losses are equally likely, so that variation comes into play as well. In a world where things were constant (which they aren't in CFB), things would theoretically not look all that bright on paper.
November 24th, 2014 at 1:18 PM ^
in college. USC has tried to hire him 3 times now, and he has continued to turn them down. If this game was @ Oregon State we would lose. Depending on our coach, QB development and how recruiting aye out...this game is a push for us.
When a mediocre PAC 12 team plays a bad BIG team these days...well, you know what happens.
November 24th, 2014 at 1:48 PM ^
Agreed, anyone in the Pac 12 scares me much more than a mediocre Big Ten team. Which is what PSU has been and will be next year.
November 24th, 2014 at 1:22 PM ^
Maybe it would be interesting to compare 2015 Michigan with 2012 OSU IF we get Jim Harbaugh. I'd take Jim vs. Urban any day of the week and look at what OSU was able to do in 2012 vs. 2011. It's not probable but if Michigan gets the right coach and staff I think we could have a good year next year with at least 9 wins. We just have to get our guy as that is the most important position right now.
I do agree there are challenges but the Big Ten as you pointed out is weak so who knows what a new coach will be able to accomplish especially if said coach is one of the top coaches in the nation.
Help us Obi Jim Harbaughoni you're one of our only hopes.
November 24th, 2014 at 1:48 PM ^
Much like UM basketball is not going anywhere until Beilein retires, neither is MSU football.
Well, that makes it tough. Is losing Beilein to retirement worth having MSU's football success go away?
#EMjustbeingadickhere
November 24th, 2014 at 2:36 PM ^
Next year we will be lucky to get 6 wins.
November 24th, 2014 at 4:07 PM ^
Unfortunately this is the most realistic answer, doesn't matter who the coach is next year, it's going to be a rebuilding year and anyone who predicts more than 6 or maybe 7 wins is drinking blue koolaid.
November 24th, 2014 at 2:44 PM ^
Regardless of HC, Michigan has a tough schedule. Here is the best case scenario:
With a good coach in place, we stick to the zone-blocking offensive philosophy and the OL talent/potential/experience combines with 4 quality RB options to produce a kick-ass run game. Our pass game, built on play-action and good protection, utilizes our TEs (Butt/Bunting) and H-backs (Kerridge/Hill) to support the run game just enough. The QB (Speight) is not going to be a killer, but maybe he can be a well-protected game-manager who is conservative and careful on the short stuff and heady on 3rd down conversions. The play-calling takes some well-timed shots downfield (at least some jump-ball punts to Chesson/Darboh/Harris). We are capable of completing a slant (GASP) because Speight has good touch and Darboh and Canteen and Butt can catch. All in all, the offense builds on this season's run-game progress and can consistently move the ball, even against good defenses, but puts it in the end zone a little more often. The OL is the key here, and there is reason for optimism. But we have to have good coaching...TBD.
The defense gets better with so many pieces back. 9 of 11 starters will be 4th or 5th year players. Mattison was really good, but the new staff teaches them a few new tricks. We switch back to a 4-3 under to take advantage of the DT talent. Henry, Mone, Pipkins, Glasgow, Hurst Jr is a killer rotation and Henry is all-conference. Charlton/Wormley/Godin solid at the DE spot. WDE is OK with Ojemudia, but Marshall provides a spark as a pass-rushing specialist a late-addition '15 recruit helps too. Ross/Morgan/Bolden/RJS/Ferns hold down the LB corps. Gedeon breaks out at SAM. Countess gets fixed. Lewis and Stribling are both starter worthy. Thomas and Hill battle it out all year for the 'other' safety spot oppostie Wilson.
Who did I not mention? Peppers. Remember all those August fantasies? Recycle those.
November 24th, 2014 at 4:26 PM ^
People need to stop the hype train on the defense automatically getting better. It was NOT an inexperienced defense this year other than 2 places - DTs and one S. That's very typical in college football - Wisconsn plays a 3-4 and lost all 4 linebackers and then 1 of their 3 DL to graduation, then lost the other 2 to injury v LSU for more than half the year. And produced. We had some injuries but lost far less than them and did not produce at that level. Then you remove the 2 best players (Clark, Ryan) off the defense. So it's no sure thing next year's defense will even match this year's.
My questions for the defense are simple - who is going to create pressure on the edge. Taco is not Frank Clark at this point. Poggi is missing in action. Who is our 3rd DE next year? Our 4th? Right now its Poggi and Marshall. Very unproven commodities. This was the issue in 2013 - the defense could not create edge pressure - that improved somewhat this year but the players who largely created it go bye.
We should have 2 good corners in Lewis and Peppers. But without pressure even elite corners get exposed. That's my worry for 2015. Corners and DEs are related - bad DE play torpedos corners.
I also still see no solution at the 2nd safety - Hill did not play well when he played and Dymonte Thomas at this point to me should be bulked up by 20 lbs and be a fast linebacker. Hope I a wrong. But again we did not answer any questions at S this year.
And can Countess improve next year as a nickel back - that position sucked for us this year big time. Saying stuff like "Blake gets fixed" is meaningless words on a page. That may just be Blake at this point.
LBs - is Lewis/Bolden better than Ryan/Bolden? I don't know. Maybe its a wash - but I dont see a major step up. Does Gedeon re-emerge? Is Ross another regression? Can anyone from the 2014 class help at this position?
Again it was not a young defense out there - plenty of veterans and basically what they have done in 2014 is limit a lot of bad Big 10 offenses and then faced with anyone with a specific talent (Minnesota running, Nova throwing) or a duel threat offense (MSU, ND) they were smacked around. Hell maryland went to a tempo offense late in the game and UM looked like it had never seen it in their life. So lets hold our horses on the maginifcent defense of 2015. I see it flat with 2014 myself. Peppers adds to it, the DTs being a year older adds to it, losing Clark detracts from it, losing Ryan detracts from it, having no answer at the 2nd S hurts and I see a potential for lack of pass rush from the ends.
November 24th, 2014 at 10:27 PM ^
I said it was a "best case scenario".
I think your post about the schedule being really hard is right on.
I also think you're right to ask about edge pressure. DE recruiting has been poor. Wormely, Charlton, Ojemudia -- none of these potential DEs are going to create a lot of pressure. It'll have to come from blitzing.
Still, limitations or not, a D with that many veterans should be pretty good. Maybe not top 10 good but we should see a return to top 25 with any decent coaching staff.
Peppers could be a solution to the second safety spot. Stribling is going to be really good at CB, it may just take another coaching staff to get him there.
LB: I think it's a wash comparing this year to last year in 5th year Ryan/3rd year Bolden compared to 5th year Morgan/4th year Bolden, plus Ross gaining a year of experience, not to mentioned Gedeon.
As for calling it equal to 2014...not unless there is attrition. Clark will be missed - but as you said, pressure was already pretty minimal. Ryan will be capably replaced. Besides that, literally EVERYONE of note is back, a year better, with a new coaching staff that could yield a nice bump in new coaching.
It's often the case that people get hyped on individuals and teams a year too early.
I'm not saying they're going to be great, but they should be really good. Yeah, I said that this year too, and they're mediocre, but that doesn't mean they won't be next year.
November 24th, 2014 at 3:10 PM ^
Is Stefon Diggs for sure declaring?
November 24th, 2014 at 4:30 PM ^
Good point, I am assuming he is as he is mocking around 3rd round and his QB is graduating.
November 24th, 2014 at 3:18 PM ^
I cannot believe I'm saying this based on who the opponent is, but that first game at Utah on Thursday night scares the shit out of me and I won't be surprised one bit if we lose.
unless....unless we have The Harbaugh.
November 24th, 2014 at 4:05 PM ^
Based on that schedule and UM's roster (specifically the weaknesses at the skill positions on offense), I predict a 6-6 or 7-5 regular season for UM in 2015.
November 24th, 2014 at 4:42 PM ^
Agree with your comparison of Barrett and Morris, but pretty sure Barrett was probably getting some first team reps in the spring when Miller was out.
November 24th, 2014 at 4:54 PM ^
Taysom Hill - only saw one BYU game w/him this year and wow - he's good.
Frankly I don't see Michigan doing well next year no matter the coach.
November 24th, 2014 at 4:56 PM ^
Great Post - unfortunately very much thinking about next year - the coaching hire and the AD hire will no doubt have an effect either directly (obviously with the coach) or indirectly (the AD and how much interference is created).
We are now living in a new era of the Big 2 - and the Big 2 are OSU and MSU. Like it or not, so long as Urban Meyer and Mark Dantonio are running those programs we'll be facing a tough pair of opponents each year. Any Big Ten title will have to go through East Lansin and Columbus.
In transition are Wisconsin, Nebraska and possibly Minnesota. Wisconsin looks like it has recovered from their coaching change and whether you like or dislike their type of ball, you know what you are getting each year - waves of RBs and huge OL. Minnesota looks like on the verge of turning a corner - if they continue to play well - say, upset Wisconsin and start actually to recruit better, they might supplant Nebraska as the number two program in the Western Division. It all depends on how Jerry Kill holds up and can he start pulling in a few 4-5 star recruits. We know what he can do with 2 and 3 stars. He can coach them up.Nebraska is not what it once was - a national power - it is barely a divisional power. It surely rankles the Husker faithful but they've been down this path before - dumping Bo Pelini is no guarantee of any better future.
As for us and the rest of the league we are all in the last strata - we have to climb to be a transitional team, and then with continued success become one of the Big programs once more. Michigan football was in a similar state from 1949 to 1969.
November 24th, 2014 at 6:44 PM ^
I'm not concerned about matching up with any of our opponents in terms of talent. The only matchup that seems to significantly favor our opponents is OSU's d-line vs our o-line. Bosa, Spence, Schutt, Washington seem to be tough matchups for us. The others at least on paper seem to favor UM. But, that assumes no injuries, and experience tells me a major contributors will get injured every year. But, our defense looks pretty stacked at every position. The QB position is a huge question mark. I think the RB should be upgraded with Isaac. The WR situation is a little questionable unless Funchess comes back. And, of course the o-line still has to develop.
My concern is our coaching, strategy, and development. We really need the o-line to develop in order to get the running game going a bit more and we need a QB that can consistently find the open reciever and complete passes and not turn the ball over so frequently. If we have an offensive identity and gel a bit it seems like it should be a decent year, but it's hard to predict that with the current coaching staff, so idk.