Stock Up - I would have to put Illinois there as well. Not that I think they will be good, just improved from this season.
Random Thoughts on 2011 Big Ten Season
Really? Didn't they lose a lot of talent to the NFL?
They lose a freaking beast of an RB in Leshoure and do-everything defenders in Martez Wilson and Corey Liuget. I'll admit I don't know if they have any decent players waiting in the wings, but even if they have several decent players I doubt it'll trump the loss of their two best defensive players (especially Liuget).
Scheelhaase is going to be a good one, though. Made a ton of strides from the start of the season through the bowl game, and will only be a RS soph.
they are losing Wilson, Liuget, and Leshoure all to the NFL, and the only impact players they had on both sides of the ball really
Clarify the title - add "...on the Big Ten" or something. EDIT: Perfect. Thanks.
Nebraska is going to be a tough challenge for the whole conference. I still see them losing two or three in-conference, but they're going to be a good game for most teams as we see how they line up in the B1G.
Exactly. And the only reason the offense slowed was because Martinez was injured. Fear Nebraska next year
On the upside, Martinez can't throw the ball whether he's healthy or not. He along with the whole Nebraska team will face some growing pains. I'm excited to have them in the conference though. It adds another dimension.
cant succeed in the Big Ten running designated plays to him all the time....oh right
Martinez couldn't throw well in 2010 (as a true freshman), but that doesn't necessarily mean he'll never get it down. The experience of watching Denard should have demonstrated this to us.
Minnesota will suck.
And thnk you for backing it up with a logical explanation of why "Minnesota will suck."
They are Minnesota.
I am expecting too much. I just like actual facts used to backup why a team will suck since in most sports forums people always say that a team sucks with no explanation of why. I feel like mgobolg is a much better place with a higher quality of discussion.
Mr. Keypunch. Are you really that upset that no one is spending the time to break down Minnesota's 2011 expectations?
I just expect better than that from those who post here. A comment as vague as "______ sucks!" is usually the kind of crap seen on mlive.com, or espn.com and not here. I've only been posting for a little bit but I already can see that the posters on mgblog usually have the best insight. Didnt realize I would take such a beating over this, my apologies to all.
How's the view from your soap box? It's was a joke, a funny one at that, calm down.
I see what you're saying, but take this Minnesota thing as a joke. It's an exception not the rule. You'll get more analysis (and really neat stuff) on the Diaries section. You'll learn a lot, just take these types of posts with a grain of salt, it's all 80% opinion, 15% snarky comments, and 5 % kittens.
I think they are on the upswing
that could only mean 4 wins, but I think Jerry Kill will be a decent coach
don't know if he will ever win a conf. title, but I think things are looking up for Minny
I think they'll stay the same...
- 1 for being Minnesota
+ 1 for having a coach named Kill
= The Same
Is a very, very good coach. Underestimate them at your own peril. They have some very real talent.
Their biggest problem is that the lose Webber at QB and he was a very good QB. He will be tough to replace.
If you look at the coaches in this conference, it just got a lot harder...
Not "this post will have logical insight"
You did exactly what you said you were going to do in your title, well done!
I disagree. MarQueis Gray will probably be the best new full-time starting QB in the conference and is a serious dual threat. The team returns all its WRs, TEs and RBs, including two three year starting RBs in Bennett and Eskridge. They got a medical redshirt for highly touted RB Donnell Kirkwood. Also, they preserved the redshirts of all five true freshmen O-linemen, including 4 star OT Jimmy Gjere.
On the defense, all starters return except for safety Kyle Theret who was a disciplinary issue.
Jerry Kill led Northern Illinois to a 10-win regular season last year behind solid fundamental play and a strong rushing attack (both QB Harnish and RB Spann). Minnesota's schedule is slightly daunting (At USC, home to Iowa, Wiscy and Nebraska in a 5 week period), but the team has enough talent to go 6-6 or 7-5, no question Jim.
I have just been schooled. Thanks for the summary.
They'll probably be better, but that really isn't saying much
I had forgotten about Gray - he has real potential. But I agree Minny has real talent. The games they won at the end of the year were no fluke.
If Iowa can build a program, and Wisky can build a program - Minny can build a program.
Northwestern should probably be in the stock up. They get Persa back and Fitz has done a good job of improving every year. I would put MSU in stock down, mainly because I see no possible way they have a better season than last year. Their defensive losses are going to effect them more than anything else IMO.
I am in "wait and see" mode with NW until Persa gets back into game action. Lucky for him, the injury occurred almost a year before the 2011 season starts so he'll have a decent amount of time to let it heal and regain some strength.
That said, my friend tore his achilles' tendon in high school playing tennis and he never got back to 100% playing ability. He can walk and run just fine, but lost a decent amount of his hop and explosiveness.
Persa was NW's saving grace last season. They had a decent team but I don't think they hit .500 without him. It will be interesting to see how he returns. He's a great talent and I like the way he plays, so I'm rooting for him. That's why I'm keeping my expectations at wait and see for NW.
Northwestern should be in stock up.
Northwestern is going to be a tough beat on the schedule next year, IMO. When Persa is at the helm, that offense is really good. Thankfully their defense should hold them back to around 7-5/8-4, but they are a pretty good team.
As far as conference standings would go, I don't see how MSU can be "steady". While they may be "steady" in terms of overall play, I think, as you said, that the schedule will not be kind. Also, I would compare MSU's season this past year to Iowa's the year prior. Last year MSU had a lot of "lucky" wins, if you wan't to call them that. Games against Notre Dame, Purdue, and NW, just off the top of my head, could have easily been losses, I don't see that luck transferring over to next year like we saw this past season for Iowa coming off of their Orange Bowl(?) victory over Georgia Tech in '09/'10. Overall though, the conference will be relatively as good as last year with fewer "elite" teams at the top while gaining strength in the middle of the pack, this will probably lead to BCS bowl loss(es), but strong performances in the lower tiered bowls.
They do catch one break in that they will face OSU without the tattoo five. It could be similar to facing Wisconsin before they caught fire.
Penn State should be significantly better next year, they were a young team with loads of injuries and ? marks at QB this year. The QB situation is still a potential mess but whoever they go with will have more experience than this past year.
They have do have some good backs, one is a burner, IIRC, but the absence of Royster will be a tough loss in terms of skill, leadership, and experience.
will miss Royster as much as you think. Royster is overrated IMO.
had an enormous Senior class.
True, but with all of the coaching turnover going on, I don't think they should be put in the 'Stock Up' section just yet.
He will post more threads today
Stock is rising fast with end of the year team play, current recruiting and Brian Kelly.
This thread is about the B1G!
Am I the only one who hates seeing B1G in print? I guess I sort of get the logo, but in regular font, it just looks stupid.
you are not the only one.
Good to know, I thought yours was a sarcastic usage, but wasn't sure. I've been seeing it pop up in way too many posts, though...
guess the Big Ten thought B1G was the next step in the evolution of pretentious or gimmicky monikers.
... I think you meant to post this here:
I just might go there myself with the moniker "Modest_UM_Fan".
These thoughts are not random. They are deliberate and intentional.
I have yet to see someone design a random thought generator. There's way too much bias in the human brain.
random thought generator: female brain
your shoes sparkle in the moonlight, fancy dancer
I like their offensive weapons, but losing 3 O-Lineman can be huge...but I think a steady O as compared to last year sounds correct. Losing two multi-year starter LB's (and one who was the best MSU defender in a generation) is not something to sweep under the rug. They made MSU's secondary and D-Line better. I see a step back in record and defensive performance for Spaty...I say 8-4.
OSU will have the same questions losing their two strong LB's as well.
I think PSU and Northwestern could be stock up as well....
is a sparty fan (commence the neg bombs) and he feels the same way you do about them being better next year although their record probably wont show it. IMO, the bow game revealed the real sparty team as they needed the greatest amount of luck to beat ND, NW, and Purdue. However, Ill give credit where credit is due.
Next year, I feel Illinois will be improved. Their qb (I wont even try to spell his name) is going to be a good one for the next few years. OSU will again be the team to beat as they return their 5 best following their 1st Big Ten game. I also see Nebraska struggling. They had the 106th (I believe) rated pass offense and in the big ten you cannot be one-dimensional.
I believe it is spelled N-A-T-H-A-N
They had the 106th (I believe) rated pass offense and in the big ten you cannot be one-dimensional.
Tell that to Wisconsin
Wisconsin had the 4th rated passing efficiency in the country. Just because they ran the ball significantly more than they threw it doesn't mean they're one dimensional.
Michigan State steady? I thought you were rational. 7-5.
Losses @ ND, @ OSU, Wisconsin, @ Nebraska, @ Iowa and that assumes no Sparty No!1!1 or Michigan, who I think will beat MSU next year.
I think you are underrating the fact that Michigan State's record will be worse. Would you consider 8-4 steady? I wouldn't, and they are probably looking at 9-3 at best. How easily people forget that MSU was 6-7 in 2009. That jump to 11-1 is in no way sustainable. They will come back to Earth, in a similar fashion to Iowa this season, and lose some of the close games that they won this year.
They play at ND, at OSU, at Nebraska, at Iowa, and they have Wisconsin and Michigan at home in back-to-back weeks. You may consider them "better" or "steady" on paper, but at the end of the season, their record will almost certainly indicate that MSU took a step back.
I appreciate the great year sparty had, and I don't want to knock them there but I would put them at a strong 8-4/9-3 even with a great core of returning starters. as they did get very lucky with a few games.
However over the long haul I think that factors are trending toward a downard trend. First, I think that the return of ND as powerhouse (at least in recruiting) and Michigan to the state of Ohio under Hoke will impact their talent.
Finally I have a questions for Rational: I hear from a Sparty friend of mine who is close to the program that they get a lot of recruits from Tressel and that Treadwell was the man behind the courtain and Dantonio will suffer with out him. Those sound like urban myths to me but if you look at who they recruit, and the Wiscy game which Dantonio was distanced from, it makes one wonder.
Also, isn't Sparty totally disapointed with this year's recruiting class. A 11-1 season, finish at No. 14 and they still have a very average (not top 25) class coming in. That would worry me.
RationalMSUfan, how will a pro-style offense help Michigan's defense? (No, you're not allowed to use the debunked "time of possession" argument.)
Hopefully they'll stop turning the ball over 3+ times a game. Not that the turnovers were a result of the spread, but it would be nice to see.
Random thought. If a blue jay and cardinal mate, will their offspring be purple?
but here's a purple bird
I'll see your purple bird and raise you a narwhal.
it would be potato. the answer is potato.
"...I think the team could actually be better if that makes any sense."
it doesn't to me but that's jmho
PSU will be much better. MSU had a special season with a special easy schedule - I expect a number of setbacks here.
OSU with the suspensions will be worse and will knock them out of the championship and maybe a BCS bowl bid.
I see a PSU and Nebraska championship game.
Hiring Mattison was huge for you guys. He'll recruit from the current roster, move people around, coach 'em up, and Michigan will have a respectable defense in 2011. In a few years Michigan will have one of the B1Gs best defenses. Saw it happen when Pelini took over at Nebraska, took a train wreck defense and had them playing well the next season.
Mattison is that good, plus as a bonus he "gets" Michigan.
Doesn't Sparty also lose it's best (best being relative since the secondary was pretty mediocre) DB/Felon?
Based on the Nov. 28 Depth Chart on Rivals, they lose 5 starters on D (DE, LB, LB, CB, S) and 6 on O (FB, WR, TE, T, T, C). That's a lot to lose at some important positions. Cousins and the returning backfield will give them some stability, but it's hard to see State "reloading." I would expect a backslide.
- Iowa/Wisky Based on the comments by OP
- Indiana: losing Doss Belcher and Chappelle and breaking in a new coach
- MSU: losing the anchor of a defense that was average to begin with.
- Michigan: Growing pains with the new coach/system
- OSU: Suspensions/losses on the defensive side of the ball
- Illinois: Young Defense will only get better under year 2 Koenning.
- Nebraska: Seemed to collapse down the stretch last year. Martinez gets another year of experience
- PSU: McGloin looks promising. Bolden can compete for the starting job. Offensive line issues should be better with a year of experience.
- Northwestern: Watch out for a healthy Persa.
- Purdue: Unless the injury bug strikes again
- Minnesota: Can't be any worse.
Overall, it should be an exciting year with 3 new head coaches being broken in.
Honest question: you really think Michigan is going to be worse next year? Looking at the schedule, swap out Wisconsin, Penn State and Indiana for Nebraska, Northwestern and Minnesota, seems like a net win. Michigan returns almost every key player. Under normal conditions, you would expect a 2-3 game jump just on those factors alone.
The offense does have the potential to take a step back with the changes, but I can't see the defensive coaching changes being anything but a huge positive.
If you are truly pessimistic about Michigan's ability to adapt to the coaching change, I could see that costing the team maybe two games, but based on where the talent says the team should be, I'd expect that makes Michigan no worse than "steady" as compared to last year.
There are very legitimate reasons to be concerned about Michigan next year. Three of their wins could easily have been losses and they weren't competitive in any of their losses. ND and SDSU are probably upgrades from last year's version of ND and UConn respectively. That may offset the lightened load next season in the Big 10.
In personnel terms, no one knows if Denard will be effective as a QB in the new offense (or at least suffer growing pains) and no one has any idea what will happen on defense.
Just like the OP said about the Spartans, I can see Michigan treading water, but ending up with the same record.
I think that's being very pessimistic. ND is an upgrade, but it's also at home in the first night game. I don't think SDSU is an upgrade. It might be equivalent to UConn, but they lose about 8 starters and are going through some form of transition on offense.
Yes, the offense might to significantly worse than last year without the defense getting significantly better, but I think that's a long shot considering the number of returning starters. I guess I was just taken aback by expecting Michigan to be worse coming off a disappointing season with a disproportionate youthful team all because of a coaching change.
I think it's very possible for this team to be back in the 6-6/7-5 range, but not worse than last years team.
I feel as if he is the one State fan i don't want to punch in the face.
Alabama game will give your Spartans a little bit of a hangover. I think that can be somewhat of a tough blow to shake off for a program reaching for elite and believing they had made substantial progress toward it. Combine that with the fact that they open the conference season in Columbus and the fact that they did truly catch a few breaks this seaon, I see them coming back to earth a little. Solid, but 3-4 losses.
They're actually lucky to start the season in Columbus. That's the fifth game of the suspension and is undoubtedly going to be the weakest OSU team that a Big Ten opponent faces all season. OSU loses 11 or so starters, and for the first few games, it is essentially 14 starters with 2 more would be starters. OSU obviously reloads better than any school in the conference, but that's going to take a while to overcome.
will be last in total offense and just ahead of Purdue in total defense. Go BLUE 1st in offense and 5th in defense (gulp).
Hope you're right, and suspect you are with the defensive prediction, but I'm guessing (and that's really all it is at this point) 3rd-5th on offense in a transition year.
Nebraska is going to be down a little next year. They are losing a Darrelle Reavis caliber lock down corner and a ton of other guys on defense. Their offense was good against bad defenses, but they were not very good against the good defenses in the big 12 like Oklahoma, Texas, and A&M. I think the toughness of the defense in the big 10 will be tough for them coming from a league that's all about offense. I think they only go about .500 in conference
MSU could be like Iowa this year. MSU was good last year, but not 11-1 good. They had an easy schedule and overachieved big time. They should still be good, but they will not be 11-1 again. More like 9-3. They're lucky they get OSU with all their players suspended.
is nice to see. I agree that we go 4-0 in OOC games, and likely only lose to OSU, NEB, and I'm split on a loss to Iowa. I can see 9-3 being a real possibility for this team based on returning talent, and better coaching.
ND is going to be a good team next season. I'm not sure why losing to them would/should result in a panic. Losing to them and SDSU might result in some serious hand wringing.
...losing to ND is never acceptable.
Pryor will say or do something really stupid.