Quick BCS Analysis

Submitted by Wolverine In Exile on

Quick look at the BCS standings... Remember, 10 BCS slots (Orange, Rose, Sugar, Fiesta, + NCG), 6 auto-bids (Big 10, Big 12, ACC, SEC, PAC-10, Big East), no conference can get more than 2 bids.

- Alabama and Florida remain 1/2 by strong margins. If both go undefeated, they will meet in the SEC championship, and if Texas loses, a Ala / Fla national championship rematch remains a strong(est?) MythNCG possibility

- USC maintains its standing as the strongest 1-loss team, but the computers love them some Hawkeyes so much that they are ahead of USC in the BCS standings. A run by Iowa to an undefeated season at this point likely lands them in position to benefit from a stumble by the Ala/Fla/Tex troika into a national championship birth.

- TCU has passed Boise St as Cinderella in the BCS buster status, but interesting to note is that only Oregon and LSU are within sniffing of them in BCS standings in terms of 2nd conference bid status. What this means is that if Oregon, LSU, USC, or Penn St slips up one more time, we stand a distinct possibility have two BCS busters if TCU and Boise can finish out undefeated. I think you can pencil in Ala/Fla loser as one at large which would knock out any other SEC teams, Oregon & USC meet up this week in a probable BCS elimination game, leaving really only a 1-loss Penn St as a viable 2nd BCS conference birth team.

- Cincy may be done as a CInderella nat'l champ game contender, although games against Pitt and WVa will boost their strength of schedule and consequently, computer rank. Unfortunately, they're 6th in computer rank and will probably only get a bump in BCS if teams ahead of them in the polls lose forcing pollsters to boost them into a Top-3 to 5 ranking in both Harris and Coaches.

- Three most shocking things to me:
1) I am shocked (shocked!) that the computers don't love USC more (9th in computer rank).
2) I am shocked (shocked!) that Iowa while ranked 8th in both Coaches and Harris still rank 4th in BCS standing
3) Notre Dame has now creeped into the discussion at #23 in BCS standing. Win out and they're probably in the BCS with momentum from a win streak pushing them in polls (boosting BCS score), and end-season victories against Navy, Pitt, UConn, and Stanford (all winning teams) really bumping up their computer ranking. An undefeated Boise or TCU may get knocked out by a 2-loss Irish team whose most impressive win may be against a 4-5 loss MSU team??

Hemlock Philosopher

October 26th, 2009 at 9:13 AM ^

Iowa is taking a similar path as we did in 1997 and their last-second win over Sparty was a schadenfreude handkerchief for my Saturday sadness. I'm living vicariously through Iowa. I hope they make it and win one for the Big Ten!

willywill9

October 26th, 2009 at 9:50 AM ^

Alabama and Florida remain 1/2 by strong margins. If both go undefeated, they will meet in the SEC championship, and if Texas loses, a Ala / Fla national championship rematch remains a strong(est?) MythNCG possibility

There is no way this should happen, especially if Florida loses to Alabama in the SEC championship. I won't enter the "deserving" argument that happened in '06, but in all reality, if you don't win your conference, you shouldn't have a shot at the national title. If you don't think it's fair, preach to the 2006 Michigan football team. In my opinion, that set precedence.

Wolverine In Exile

October 26th, 2009 at 10:36 AM ^

We're talking about the ESS EEE CEE!!!!! Logic has no place here! Wouldn't the nation love to see Coaching Genius Saban (TM) v. Coaching Genius Meyer (TM) and his ever loving savior Jeebus Tebow??

Now that the sarcasm is over, yes I agree with you on principle and my own feelings, but we're talking about college football pollsters, and realistically, Fla jumped us in 2006 b/c of pollster actions, where here I don't think the Pollsters would drop Fla/Ala that much and their computer rankings would still be really high.

Irish

October 26th, 2009 at 10:08 AM ^

If ND wins out the most impressive win will most likely be a 6-1 Pitt team who is ranked 15 in the bcs. But that would be looking at current win-loss numbers, and I am not confident they will continue their win rate.

Wolverine In Exile

October 26th, 2009 at 10:17 AM ^

My perception (and I think this is more widespread than just me in my attic with the bucket of fish heads) is that Pitt looks good now, but you have the potential of ND, Cincy, and WVa beating Pitt the last three weeks in a row, so the luster would definately be off the Pitt rose. For ND, it would be probably be a big boon since Pitt will still be ranked high when ND beats them so the effect at that time in the minds of the pollsters will be much higher than if ND beats Pitt after Pitt played Cincy and WVa. Advantageous timing for ND, really.

I really think that if this happens, you seriously might be looking at a resume who's best wins are a bowl eligible MSU (especially if MSU can upset Penn St), or a 7-9 win Navy team...

Irish

October 26th, 2009 at 10:59 AM ^

I agree with you on Pitt, the 2nd half of their schedule is always much tougher than the beginning, but with syracuse next week they have 8 wins there. If your looking at potential end of season schedules,
-Nevada has 4 wins left of their schedule their 4-3 right now plus they play Boise and that will be an interesting matchup
-I agree MSU is looking at 7-5 at best right now
-BC could very well win out but 8-4 is more likely (5-3 right now)
-The only game Navy is going to be a strong underdog is the ND game, they play 13 this year since they play @ hawaii but a 10-3 or 9-4 final record is very doable
-UConn at best might be a 7-5 and probably more likely a 6-6 team at the end, it was a close game @ WVU but they have some much stronger offenses in their future
-Stanford, who knows? they drop some of the dumbest games but can show up when your don't expect them to, anywhere between 5-7 and 9-4.

If I am going to rank them, Navy, Pitt, Nevada, BC, would be my top 4 but there is a lot of football to play

Irish

October 26th, 2009 at 11:23 AM ^

Maybe Cincy is a bad example? But Cincy is a big east team, and they have an autobid. Look at Pitt they're the 2nd best big east team based on the rankings sitting in 15th at 7-1. If Cincy is removed from the equation entirely Pitt would replace them in preseason polls and probably be the 2nd team with 1 loss after usc.

Wolverine In Exile

October 26th, 2009 at 10:39 AM ^

It won't come from the mainstream press.... they'll be overjoyed at an ESS EEE CEEE vs. Big EX-EYE-EYE matchup of obviously the two most powerful conferences in the history of college football. The only way it could be better is if it was a four team playoff involving USC and Notre Dame.

Prediction:
Jay Mariotti on AtH the day after the BCS championship is announced- "The BCS worked Reali. You have the top 2 teams from the top two conferences. Apologies to Cincinnati and TCU/Boise/Iowa, but they're not in the same class as Fla/Ala/Tex. If they played in the SEC this year, they'd have at least 2 losses"

Wolverine In Exile

October 26th, 2009 at 11:35 AM ^

The collective outrage of Boise, TCU, Iowa, and Cinci:

Boise: 7, maybe 10 people
TCU: The Ghost of Sammy Baugh, LaT, and the Mgoblog poster who really wanted Gary Patterson as HC here
Iowa: 300,000 corn farmers and the one guy who wrote the newspaper with the article about Field of Dreams
Cinci: Trust me, I live 60 miles from Cincy and work with a shitload of Cincy grads. No one cares about Cincy football except football geeks who get off on Brian Kelly offensive pass trees.

"Mariotti can bleed out his eyes and die for all I care."

Sorry, already happened, yet he continues to write a column as one of the undead.