Questions from a Bama fan with 100 posts:
1) How do you expect RB to look during the game on Sat? Will it be a steady diet of Rawls, or by committee? What do you expect of Rawls? Does it fall off dramatically after him, or does the senior have any ability?
2) Do you actually believe that Robinson will run around Bama in the same way he would run around, say, [insert Big10 defense]? (I ask this question fully admitting that he's the fastest player in CFB. If he played at Bama, he'd be starting at Right Corner, returning punts, and would be the first corner off the board on draft day. He's athletically legit.) What are the chances you thnk he will need to help win the game with his arm more than his legs?
3) Do you have any faith in hitting a 52 yarder for the win?
4) Do you think our DB situation is worse than your LB, WR, or Dline situation?
5) How much of a jump do you expect from your D based on your DC having installed more of his blitz package?
6) Do you expect, and I mean expect, to have - at minimum - 2 offensive TD's in the game?
7) What is the general assessment of your new Center?
8) Is mental mistakes at LB, either inside or outside, a concern of yours?
9) Can your starting secondary play man if they had to, each on an island? (I'm not asking about Kovacs. He's a true strong safety. He's a glorified roving mini-linebacker of destruction. I like Kovacs. He could play on my team anytime.)
10) How often do you expect to play bump-and-something with your corners this year?
11) How much has Denard improved his footwork and mechanics this season? Do you expect the same player with simply more maturity and less-forcing, or do you expect him to improve his accuracy to between 60-65% and be a more consistent threat to pass?
12) In your estimation, can you put 3-, 4-, or 5-wide WR set on the field, where every wide receiver is an athletic threat with good hands?
13) Do you have enough talent to rotate 2 groups on your Dline and still play high quality run defense as well as rush the passer, thereby being reasonably fresh for a 4th Q battle?
14) [redacted comment about RichRod's wife].
Thanks in advance for any and all reasonable replies. Roll Tide to all, and I pray for both teams' health and success in Saturday's game, although I'd prefer my boys to come out on top. I have always liked Mich, mostly because I thought your uni's were cool when I was a kid. Howard posing for the Heisman never hurts when your 12, or whatever. I also like and respect Hoke. He does it the right way, with discipline and honor. He poor-mouths his team and gives you genial coach-speak, which is quintessentially (sp?) Southern. Good luck, fellas. It wil be a pleasure to play you. F@ck ohio state. Roll Tide.
[ED:BISB - We try not to make personal attacks on non-combatants here. Rita Rodriguez is a non-combatant]
August 29th, 2012 at 3:13 AM ^
We know Saban would take 4 Kovacs and 6 on Sunday, that is the point were are making about his oversigning.
August 29th, 2012 at 7:00 AM ^
...in the Saban recruiting regime, else he'd probably be at 'Bama.
August 29th, 2012 at 7:09 AM ^
August 29th, 2012 at 11:18 AM ^
Dude, why the hostility? I simply feel like we have a slightly better than 50% shot of hitting a 52 yarder for the win, and it's based on having watched my team play for the last several years. Geez, you data nerds get all worked up over little stuff. Geez, Louise.
August 29th, 2012 at 1:01 PM ^
Also don't make assertions and then get upset if disagree on it. You claimed to want a conversation after all.
August 29th, 2012 at 4:07 PM ^
I didn't get upset - the guy above me did. Since when does asking a person why he's upset constitue my being upset? Weird.
I never said I wouldn't be nervous or that I defintiely expected to hit it, just that my confidence level is not as low as yours. If that's bothersome for you, so be it. If the number 65% is annoying, change it to 51%. I still don't fear the scenario.
Thanks for not trying to insult my intelligence with a Math joke. That shows aplomb on your part, and attacking me about intelligence would be losing endeavor on anyone's part, save the 2% of the human population smarter than me. Yes, Southerners are just as smart as the rest of the world. Unfortunatley, our idiots have such a funny accent in which to sound stupid. It makes for good laughs, I admit.
August 29th, 2012 at 10:11 AM ^
If the kick is to win the game, it's probably 4th down with very little time on the clock right? I mean, I ask because I would feel like if it was earlier in the game and it's 4th and a manageable number from I guess it would be the 34 yard line, I think Hoke would have us go for it. With little time on the clock, fourth down, and absolutely needing the three points? I think that forces your hand.
Anyway, Gibbons didn't even attempt a kick over 50 yards last season. He was 2/5 from 40+. I don't think that I'd have much faith in him, unless there were a million brunette girls behind the endzone.
August 29th, 2012 at 10:32 PM ^
Virginia Tech disagrees with you.
August 29th, 2012 at 8:50 AM ^
we win the moral battle Sat whethe. . .
Aw shit; I just want to win the real battle, actually.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:57 AM ^
Welcome back wolverineinabag/RollDamnTide
August 29th, 2012 at 1:09 AM ^
I'm not familiar with these folks. cm2010 will vouch for me, wherever he is.
August 29th, 2012 at 12:58 AM ^
Somebody hasn't tried the nacho dip.
August 29th, 2012 at 1:01 AM ^
You guys seriously think that Fitz is not going to Play let alone start? Come on ladies, at the end of the day teams play to win. Fitz will get carries as the lightning and Rawls will be the thunder. Smith on obvious passing downs or gimmick screens.
August 29th, 2012 at 10:08 AM ^
I'll bet you 10,000 MGoPoints that Fitz doesn't start.
August 29th, 2012 at 1:03 AM ^
2) yes
3) I think about brunette girls
4) I think about bru..
5) lots
6) see #2
7) we'll see
8) yes, we're concerned about everything
9) KOVACS!!
10) we bumps all your receivers!!! Or not.
11) We'll never tell
12) Yup. Oh, with good hands at 4 and 5? See #7
13) Talent, yes; experience...depends on if you count some stuff
14) BOO! NO O-T
August 29th, 2012 at 1:03 AM ^
2.) I do think Denard can and will run over you guys. At first... He has to make throws to keep it up though. If he can keep the D honest and prevent a stacked box. He will run through your D consistently throughout the night IMO
August 29th, 2012 at 1:07 AM ^
I think the main source of optimism for the defense is that this is the first time in a long time where the players are in the same system and there aren't too many major position changes.
I guess you mean except the d-line where every player is either a new starter, at a new position or both.
August 29th, 2012 at 1:14 AM ^
First of all, a very condescending post, but I will play your silly game. Does anyone know why SEC fans think every Defense in their conference is ranked in the top 5? Vandy, Ole Miss, Ark, Miss St., Aub, Tenn. Which one of these teams had great defenses last year? Now flip the script, who had a great offense in your conference? Arkansas had your best offense and it was ranked 29th overall. I will admit your top defenses are the best in CFB and that’s why you guys have been dominating the BCS championship, but lets not pretend that Vandy, Ole Miss etc would win every conference but your own. This is not the week for this BS homie. Hit up RBR or some other hillbilly site. Holla back next week…
August 29th, 2012 at 2:06 AM ^
What's wrong with you, dude? Not a single word in my OP was condescending. Talk about an inferiority complex! You seem to be venting your SEC frustration out on me and putting words in my mouth. However I digress...
To address your post, the Big10 had 3 offenses in the top 50 last year, the SEC also had 3. The SEC had 3 offenses in the top 31 - the big10 had 1. The SEC had 3 offenses better than the Big10's 2nd best, and 4 offenses better than your 3rd best. All in a league that plays better defense, as you stated above So what's your point?
August 29th, 2012 at 4:04 AM ^
to know whats wrong with me...
August 29th, 2012 at 9:15 AM ^
Michigan does not have an inferiority complex about the SEC. That is laughable. Is that arrogant? Well the record speaks for itself.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:23 AM ^
Hey, I let you guys' words speak for themselves. The inferiority complex was aimed at one specific poster, so why do you all feel that I meant it about everyone? I've read enough of this board to know that the SEC is a ridiculously frequent topic of discussion, and it's overwhelmingly derisive. That obsession is based on something. What it's based on, is for each and every man to decide. Nonetheless, on this issue, me thinks thou dost protest too much. :-)
August 29th, 2012 at 9:51 AM ^
I believe that is against the current configuration of the SEC. No SEC inferiority complex here. Try the Bucknuts board.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:32 AM ^
2-1 againist Bama. I trust in Hoke & company having this team ready to go.
August 29th, 2012 at 1:08 PM ^
Go re-read your Q in which you implied Denard would be merely an above average CB in the SEC. That pretty much defines condescension right there.
August 29th, 2012 at 4:18 PM ^
I never said, implied, alluded to, nor thought that Denard would be simply an above average QB in the SEC. I literally have no idea what you are talking about.
My opinion of Robinson:
Denard Robinson is the most electrifying player in CFB with the ball in his hands, and is the fastest player in CFB. And despite the fact that he has excellent arm strength, his mechanics and subsequent innacuracy, his lack of height, and his poor decision-making when thowing at times, particularly on 2nd- and 3rd-and-long, make him a very pedestrian thrower on average. He can make all the throws without question, but arm is both an asset and liability at times, and that liability affects his general rating and effectiveness in my eyes. Robinson is an excellent football player, a fine young man, a great leader, and hands-down the best player you have and your biggest asset by a country mile. That doesn't make him an elite CFB QB is my eyes, however. He would be an asset to any CFB team in the country, although his talents would be better served at different positions depending on the team. I believe this to be a reasonable and fair assessment, and I base this opinion on having watched a lot of Mich football recently.
August 29th, 2012 at 3:26 PM ^
to have to agree with KAYSHIN on this...when I first read your post its sounded dooshbaggy and condescending.
I will answer all your questions with one sentence... Dont be surprised if the game is close
August 29th, 2012 at 4:20 PM ^
I will not at all be surprised if the game is very close. I also won't be surprised if we win our 3rd Championship in 4 years this year, and those 2 statements are not mutually exclusive. Mich has a good team. Anything can happen, and that's why we play the games.
August 29th, 2012 at 1:14 AM ^
1. Personally I'm not expecting much from Rawls. He hasn't shown a lot yet in limited carries. The senior has some good juke but no power and not a lot of speed. He'll pick up some yards; he's also an excellent receiver out of the back field and pass blocker.
2. I'll say this, Robinson always seems faster in the first couple of games of the season before he gets nicked up. Watch out!
3.Absolutely not.
4. I don't think we have a LB "situation", but as we do have a WR situation you will be hurt less by your DBs than we will be our DL.
5. Can't answer before seeing them play.
6. Yes. You have a great D, but Yes.
7. I like our new C, he should be decent. Played quite well at G last season before injury. Moves well
8. Not really, the starters are all veterans, more worried about being somewhat undersized and backups inexperience.
9. Yes definately but they'll need to give your receivers some cushion.
10. Ask our DC, he's a lot smarter than I am. I'd say "some" (?)
11. You seem to labouring under the same underestimation that a lot of opposing fans have of Denard's talents. His problem has been inconsistency, he will fall into a slump for a quarter or a half, where his mechanics slip away from him, and he does not look good. As time has gone on these periods have been farther and farther apart. When he is on, he is really, really good. I expect that he has continued to improve in the off season and these regressive periods will be fewer and farther between. I espect that with his expereince he will be in the top 10 in the nation in passing effeciency this year. You heard it here first. IF he is throwing well, it's very hard to stop our offense, no matter how good you are.
12. Yes definately, although some of them will be true freshman.
13. I don't feel too good about this. We will rotate our DL so they are fresh in the 4th, but I fear there is a big drop off when the subs are in.
14. Your welcome ?
Good luck on Saturday. (But not too much)
August 29th, 2012 at 1:15 AM ^
To preface, I am probably more pessimistic than the average Michigan fan around here, so take what I say with a grain of salt. To get the unrequested score prediction out of the way early, I'll say Alabama 30, Michigan 20.
1) How do you expect RB to look during the game on Sat? Will it be a steady diet of Rawls, or by committee? What do you expect of Rawls? Does it fall off dramatically after him, or does the senior have any ability?
I expect our RBs to struggle somewhat during the game on Saturday, unless Toussaint plays. Our between-the-tackles running backs are inexperienced and we are facing the best defense that we've faced in years.
In the likely chance that Toussaint does not play, I expect to see a mix of Rawls, Smith, Hayes, and Hopkins (fullback). Rawls may get the most carries, but I would not expect him to get a vast majority of the carries.
In my estimation, there is a big drop-off from Toussaint to Rawls, but Rawls/Smith/Hayes/Hopkins/. They all have different styles, but I'd say they are all roughly equivalent in ability (Rawls and Hopkins are more inside runners, while Smith is your typical third-down back).
2) Do you actually believe that Robinson will run around Bama in the same way he would run around, say, [insert Big10 defense]? (I ask this question fully admitting that he's the fastest player in CFB. If he played at Bama, he'd be starting at Right Corner, returning punts, and would be the first corner off the board on draft day. He's athletically legit.) What are the chances you thnk he will need to help win the game with his arm more than his legs?
I think you're right - Robinson will have to win the game with his arm more than his legs. Robinson has typically struggled running the ball (by his standards) against the best defenses he has faced. While his legs are a very effective weapon, teams that have forced him to pass have had some success shutting down the pass and the run. If he passes well, though, watch out.
3) Do you have any faith in hitting a 52 yarder for the win?
Absolutely. I have lots of faith in Brendan Gibbons. And, if Hoke says Wile is better for long-distance field goals, then I have a lot of faith in Wile. We struggled mightily in 2010 with kicking, but our kicking game is no longer a glaring weakness, and may in fact be a strength, if Gibbons takes another step forward.
4) Do you think our DB situation is worse than your LB, WR, or Dline situation?
I am not familiar with your DB situation, so I unfortunately cannot make that comparison.
However, I can speak to our situations. Our LBs will be fine. They were solid last year, and we return all of them. Plus, two of them are now sophomores and could see the typical freshman-to-sophomore jump. Our d-line is inexperienced, but I think that will be somewhat compensated for by the fact that the d-line is the area of Hoke AND Mattison's highest expertise. I am not TOO concerned about our d-line, given the lack of experience there. Additionally, any preview on our WRs seems to give little credit to Roundtree, Gallon, and Dileo, who all have extensive game experience. Plus, the wild card of Gardner, who appears to be Big Ten-starter worthy from limited practice reports, can only help.
In short, I think our WRs and d-line will be better than they look on paper, and our LBs are not an area of concern in the first place. I am actually more concerned with our RBs in Game 1 than I am with our WRs and d-line.
5) How much of a jump do you expect from your D based on your DC having installed more of his blitz package?
As discussed above, our defensive line is inexperienced (Campbell and Washington have limited playing time, Roh has three years of experience, and Black has one year of limited experience). I think that will limit a huge jump in our blitzing in the early season. As the season progresses, I think Year 2 under Mattison will result in great things.
6) Do you expect, and I mean expect, to have - at minimum - 2 offensive TD's in the game?
Honestly, and it pains me to say this, but I expect a minimum of 10 points in the game. I think, at the very least, that we'll get a touchdown in the 4th quarter if we're trailing by more than a score - when we really open this offense up, we're nearly unstoppable. I hope I'm dreadfully wrong, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Alabama's defense all but shut us down in the first three quarters.
7) What is the general assessment of your new Center?
Not too concerned - he was a starting guard last year. Obviously, he had to go through a transition and he's not likely to be an All-Big Ten player or anything, but I think he'll be solid.
8) Is mental mistakes at LB, either inside or outside, a concern of yours?
Not really. Kenny Demens has been a very solid MLB for 1.5 seasons now. Ryan and Morgan (sophomore outside linebackers) made some freshman mental mistakes, but they're no longer freshmen. They might be overwhelmed physically at points, but I certainly don't expect some sort of mental meltdown from that crew.
9) Can your starting secondary play man if they had to, each on an island? (I'm not asking about Kovacs. He's a true strong safety. He's a glorified roving mini-linebacker of destruction. I like Kovacs. He could play on my team anytime.)
Yes, I believe so. Floyd made enormous strides last year and Countess was outstanding for a freshman. I don't know too much about Alabama's receiving corps, but I don't expect them to walk all over our CBs or anything along those lines.
I'm not too familiar with Thomas Gordon "on an island", so I can't speak entirely to that.
However, overall, we had VERY few big plays allowed last year (with the exception of Ohio State). I think that speaks to the competency of all four secondary members, who all return for this year.
10) How often do you expect to play bump-and-something with your corners this year?
Not an area that I am familiar with; I'll have to let someone else answer this.
11) How much has Denard improved his footwork and mechanics this season? Do you expect the same player with simply more maturity and less-forcing, or do you expect him to improve his accuracy to between 60-65% and be a more consistent threat to pass?
I simply don't know, and I don't think anyone knows for sure; his improvement will go a long way toward determining our success this year. The coaches have certainly stressed his footwork and mechanics this offseason, but I don't know how that will play out. While Denard's passing was a weakness last year, it's important to keep in mind that his 2010 passing was outstanding from a statistical standpoint.
I expect more maturity, less forcing, and numbers more similar to 2010 than 2011. But, I don't know if the benefit from being in the second year of a new offense will take hold immediately in the first week.
12) In your estimation, can you put 3-, 4-, or 5-wide WR set on the field, where every wide receiver is an athletic threat with good hands?
3-wide -> yes: Roundtree, Gallon, Gardner
4-wide -> yes: Roundtree, Gallon, Gardner, Dileo (although he is a smaller, slot receiver, he definitely has good hands and could run the shorter routes in this scenario)
5-wide -> not sure: Our fifth receivers would be Jerald Robinson and Jeremy Jackson. We haven't seen much about them in a game scenario.
Obviously, that is predicated on the idea that Gardner is as good as the practice hype indicates. If he isn't quite ready to be a full time wide receiver, my confidence in 4- and 5-wide set drops.
13) Do you have enough talent to rotate 2 groups on your Dline and still play high quality run defense as well as rush the passer, thereby being reasonably fresh for a 4th Q battle?
Good question. Probably not. Our backup defensive lineman are also pretty unproven. I would expect our defensive lineman to wear down over the course of the game, unless we rotate excessively throughout and spread that talent deficiency throughout the game.
14) Thank you for taking RichRod from us, and thank your moreso for taking his clown-demon of a wife. This is not so much a question, but rather a appreciative declaration of fact.
Dude, Rita rocks. And, this is not going to be a popular opinion, but I would take Rich Rodriguez as my coach over Nick Saban any day.
Here's to hoping for an excellent, injury-free game.
August 29th, 2012 at 1:27 AM ^
I think if we go five wide, Borges will want to insert Funchess as the 5th WR. Bury him in a stack formation so he can get off clean. Kid can run and catch.
August 29th, 2012 at 1:37 AM ^
You know, I completely forgot about all freshmen when responding to that question. I probably would have included Darboh (or Chesson) and not Funchess, but regardless, I forgot.
August 29th, 2012 at 2:12 AM ^
Thanks for taking the time to reply.
August 29th, 2012 at 1:16 AM ^
August 29th, 2012 at 1:17 AM ^
6.) I think michigan will break 20 points.
August 29th, 2012 at 1:43 AM ^
1. Depends on if Fitz sees the field at all, but Hoke will definitely use more than one RB. If Fitz plays all game, then you'll see rawls on one out of four snaps when Fitz is playing. If he's not playing, You'll see Rawls on 2 out of 4 snaps. You'll see Smith on 1-2 out of four as well, but he'll only carry on something less than 50% of those appearances.
Also - Rawls is a Sophomore. You seem to indicate that he is a senior.
2. Depends on how the game unfolds. If we have to resort to DENARD MAKES THINGS HAPPEN, then no. I expect Bama can get some good contain. If the O is rolling as it should, then yes. Our O-Line is a strength and will create enough time for him to get some quality passing opportunities, which will open up his designed runs and, god willing, scrambles.
3. Any faith? Sure. Substantia amounts of it? Not even if Remy was back there again.
4. Our LBs are in pretty damn good shape, baring subtantial injuries. WR could go either way. If Denard's accuracy is up, our WR's are fine. If we have to play leap ball, notsomuch. D-Line, Only Mattison's holy hands gie us hope. We all know Bama has talent at every position. It remains to be seen if our D-Line staf (That includes Hoke, Mattison and Funk, actually) an mold less talent into more performance.
5. In game one? Not too much. The line needs time to gel for the blitz package to really become effective. That said, I expect it to help shore up for any fall off.
6. Yes. Borges ain't Miles, son.
7. Solid or solid+ O-Lineman. If he can snap and get off, and all indications are that he can, we're good to go like a Crunchwrap Supreme.
8. Very minor. Kids improved all last season and had them mostly put away by the end of the year. Slight relapses are possible, but the athleticism is there to make it a small issue most of the time.
9. Yes. HOWEVA! This is NOT me saying that it would work on every snap.
10. We have some prospects in the 2013 class that can do it, and some 2012'ers that might once they're not fleas. Right now? Not much.
11. Denard is never going to be a laser rocket. He does have the strength to make all the throws, no problem, but his skills mandate that he stay somewhat light on his feet at all times. I think there will be a substantial jump in decision making that sees INT's go down, but completions may not rise by that much. I put a 60% upper limit on it, but coupled with increase YPA AND more decicive running/scrambling.
12. 3? No problem? 4? Depends on your definition of athletic and/or good hands. Is Dileo athletic? Do either of the freshmen have good hands? 5? Do TE's at WR count? Funchess can do it. HOWEVA! I don't see this happening much. Our O-Line should be a run blocking machine.
13. Mattison prides his defensive players on adaptability. Guys can shift between two or three positions as needed with little to no drop-off. So put me in the yes camp. Also, Wellman is better than Barwis. That's right. I said it.
14. You are not even slightly welcome.
August 29th, 2012 at 1:36 AM ^
I believe he was referring to vincent smith as the senior rb, not rawls
August 29th, 2012 at 1:39 AM ^
1) Committee. Rawls is still an unknown quality/quantity in my opinion, so I'm as anxious as anyone to see what he looks like this year. The falloff after Rawls should not be steep, but V Smith willl be completely different type deal. I wish Fitz had called a cab.
2) I don't think DR will "run around" on a D like Bama's, but he still may get some big plays with his legs... If he hasn't learned when to stay the course and throw; and when to take off and run during this off season, it might be a long day.
3) I hope M is in the situation where they could, but closer than 52 yards would be nice.
4) No. Your situation is one where the current guys is as good as the last guy but he just lacks experience. M is still feeling the pain of the RR years, not getting/keeping playmakers on D.
5) I'm hoping the extra year in the system will offset the loss of 3 quality linemen that really anchored that D last year.
6) I hope for at least that many, but I don't necessarily expect it. The talent disparity between these teams could make things ugly, but i do expect M to play with a lot of grit/pride. Bame is a legit 14 pt favorite, but that doesn't mean M is not dangerous enough to make a game of it if they get the right bounces... and those bounces can go any which way the first game of the year.
7) I feel less concerned about this than I thought I would be so far; especially considering M's performance when Molk was hurt at the start of the VT game.
8) Compared to the RR years, mental mistakes on D are much less a concern.
9) Sometimes yes, but Charles Woodson graduated a long time ago.
10) Bump and run, something else to make my mind wander back to Charles Woodson? Sigh...
11) I'm as anxious to see Denard's senior season as anyone. I hope he can fix all the little things. He is just about everything a person could want in a college athlete.
12) Athletic threat? Not really, but Jeremy Gallon does have a cloaking device. (See ND 2011.)
13) I think they have enough talent to do so without significant drop off, whether or not that's enough is yet to be seen.
14) Your welcome I guess. I think this game would be a lot more interesting if it were played 2 -3 yrs from now... but i will still be in Dallas on Saturday to see it. Go Blue.
August 29th, 2012 at 1:41 AM ^
August 29th, 2012 at 1:43 AM ^
Do you think Herbie will call Norfleet "worthless" if he takes a few to the house for us?
August 29th, 2012 at 1:47 AM ^
1. Rawls' carries will likely depend on ball security. As a runner he has some tools that Smith lacks, but it must be said that Smith is experienced, a great blocker, and a receiving threat out of the backfield. There's no telling how big the drop off is given the lack of film on Rawls though. My biggest worry is that Rawls struggles early, and Smith is stuck trying to pick up 3 or 4 yards at best per carry.
2. Denard will probably have two or three 20+ yd runs. He certainly has the capability to go over 100 yds in the game, but the vast majority of his runs could not end in punishing blows, which is too much to ask, I'm afraid. If Fitz was starting I would answer differently. Read options are really something with two home run threats.
3. Given the venue, maybe. Weather won't be an issue, and it's not a true away game.
4. DB is not the position group of concern (weird saying that). The back 7 should be fine, but not if the DL can't take care of business up front first.
5. Overall, I don't think there will be a huge jump. However, situationally, the D will perform markedly better than last year due to more Mattisonization. Once again, it really depends on the front four. I think the D will outright dominate Big Ten offenses at times this year, but Alabama is a different animal.
6. I think it's fair to expect two offensive TD's.
7. Not his natural position, but an experienced offensive lineman who is apparently mobile.
8. The two outside linebackers are younger, but I anticipate that their mental miscues will be kept to a minimum.
9. Probably in spurts only. The DB situation this year is so much better than in years past that I could be overestimating their abilities, though.
10. More and more as the season progresses.
11. I think that he will be a better player, and his stats should show it. Last year's schedule was kind, and there are more difficult road tests this year, so there's that to factor in too. I would guess he cuts down on INT's to 12, fumbles once or twice, and completes over 63% of his passes with a few more TD's through the air.
12. Comfortable with a 3 wide set + TE. Once we get to 4 wideouts, not every player will present a match up issue for a team like Alabama.
13. Probably not.
But really, who knows. Kickoff just needs to happen to stop all of this.
August 29th, 2012 at 1:47 AM ^
1) If Fitz is out (which my gut feeling is telling me he will sit the first half for some reason), then Rawls will be the main RB with Smith spelling him from time to time. Also remember that Smith is the featured 3rd down back as well. I except Rawls to be a the type of guy who makes one cut into the hole, power runs through it and then attempts to fall forward. Fitz looks for cuts to break a run long, while Rawls will try to pick up 5 at a time and be happy with it. Smith has some skill, and is mainly a shifty type running back whom is servicable, but nothing ankle-breaking.
2) The danger of Robinson is that at any given time, he can take a run the distance. Although for him to do that against Bama's D (IMO), is to first back up the safetys and blitzing LBs with some passing success. I really hope Borges brings back the "QB Oh Noes" and bubble screens for this game, but unfortunately, doubt it. He is too special of a runner to be contained all game, and will have a couple of big runs, but he will need to open up the box a little bit with his arm to be more effective.
3) Are there any college football teams that will have much faith in that? The longest FG I will be comfortable hitting for the win would be 45 yards, tops.
4) I will take our LB situation over your DBs, while our WR and DLine situation are probably a little bit worse.
5) It will be hard to have a defensive jump this year considering the talent on the DLine that we lost. But I believe the D as a whole remain around the same due to the improvement of the back 7. To help out the DLine, I do expect more blitzs and a more compelx blitz package from Mattison.
6) Yes I do.
7) He will be solid. He is no Molk, but he won't be a liability either.
8) Not really. They were a little bit of an issue last year, but I am confident that was mainly due to Ryan and Desmond being freshman in the 1st year of a new D. I expect improvement due to age and more time in the system.
9) I believe Countess and Floyd can, but only if we are also able to get some pressue on McCarron. If Bama does a good job picking up the blitz and McCarron has plenty of time to go through his reads, then we will be in trouble. Althought that is also true of almost any D when they send a blitz and the Oline picks it up.
10) Not expecting much bump-and-run from the corners. Maybe a little bit, but they will mostily give your WRs a little bit of cushion. Michigan likes to prevent giving up the home run and would rather keep the play in front of them
11) I think footwork will be the biggest thing. Most of his bad throws last year came when he had some pressure and instead of stepping into his throw, he threw it off his back foot. If he has conquered that mental battle/tendancy in the offseason, then look for a dramatic improvement in his INT rate. With that being said, it is one of those things that is completely different in a game atmosphere vs practice with pressure in his face. So only game-time will tell.
12) I feel someone comfortable with a 3 or 4 wide set (Roundtree, Gallon, Dileo, and Gardner (!!!), but I doubt Michigan will have many 5 WR sets. I think they will always keep a TE or RB in for blitz pickup too.
13) I wish, but nope. In fact the DLine getting tiered in the 4th is my biggest fear this game. This is not as much a concern for pass rushing as it is for run stopping.
14) But you missed out on Rita's famous Nacho Dip!
With all this being said, I have a question for you. Do you honestly believe Bama will beat Michigan by 14 points or do you think it will be closer than that? The most amount of points I see Bama scoring is 31 points and I believe Michigan will put up at least 14. And that is worst case scenario. My honest prediction for this game is 24-20, one way or the other.
EDIT: actually one more question. How does Bama's 2 minute offense look? I always viewed their offense as a grind it out type of philosophy.
August 29th, 2012 at 2:40 AM ^
Regarding your questions:
1) I see the game going a number of different ways. If we played 10 times, I think we win by 2 touchdowns or more 5 times, it's an uncomfortable Bama victory 3 times, and you guys win a couple. Which game unfolds Saturday, we'll see. That's why we play the games, right? I don't, however, think you guys have a single advantage in any match-up at any time, i.e. WR's vs DB's, Oline vs. Dline, etc. Also, despite you guys being a decently talented team and probably better than the sum of it's parts, the only starter you have I'd take over ours would be Robinson, and he'd be at lock-down corner, slot receiver, or bulk him up to play tailback - all of which he'd be an All-American at - on my squad. Otherwise, I wouldn't take a single starter of yours over ours, although I admit your LT is very good and Kovacs could play Right Safety for Bama any day of the week.
2) Our 2 minute drill is actually very good. Often we use it to get in FG range. We kick a lot of FG's, if you guys didn't already know.
We actually have a 4-minute offense and 2-minute offense, both of which are usually quite obviously scripted and effective. McCarron also does a really nice job of putting us in the right plays.
3) Regarding thinking our offense to be the grind it out type: Yes, we can and will do that, but it's usually with the game in hand in the 4th. We will throw it on 50% of our offensive plays when the game is in doubt, and throw it much more than you think on 1st down, particularly in the first half. We do excel at running it, but we throw it much more than our highlights would lead you to believe. Saban preaches balance on O, and that has very much been the case for the last half decade with him at the helm.
4) Our achilles heel on O under Saban, when there has been one, has been stalling in the red zone. If your D gets tough in the red zone, life can be difficult for us. We should move the ball fairly regularly between the 20's, given that we do that to everyone.
Thanks for the Q's.
August 29th, 2012 at 9:43 AM ^
I think Bama's biggest advantage is OLine vs UM's inexperienced DLine. If Bama goes run, run, play action over the top, I fear the game. But I love UM's back 7 against a straight drop back pass. If Bama does a lot of that I think he will have a subpar game. And it makes me very happy to hear that they struggle in the Red Zone. We did it to VT and I hope we can do it to you.
On offense. I think the UM Oline can handle the Bama Dline, the question will be if they can beat the linebackers to the spot. The other big question is our passing game, if our receivers can get separation from the DBs. If they can I expect an outstanding game. if they can't, well, I hope you FG kicker misses some or we get some turnovers.
August 29th, 2012 at 1:49 AM ^
1) This is actually an unknown, and is a highly controversial subject of debate among the fanbase. I will just say that I give UM winning this game a 35% chance with Fitz and a 27% without him; he's a great back.
2) I don't think Shoelace will simply "run around" any defense. What it will come down to is if we will be able to keep your defense honest, which will require an offseason leap by Denard, a well-schemed approached, and some of our receivers to show up. I'm actually optimistic on this front, but the lack of access by anyone to fall camp makes this a substantial question mark.
3) In an odd sort of way, I'd say this is 50/50 based on press conference rhetoric alone.
4) I don't think that's the right question. The question should be the matchup between your unproven secondary and our semi-proven passing game. Personally, I think this is a wash, but I have a gut feeling that the combination of Denard's 2nd year in this offense and the talent of our WRs will surprise some people. Whether that surprise comes in game one or game 4 is up for debate.
5) We don't expect a jump, necessarily. The only certainty is that the back seven will have the carry the load early in the season. The consensus among our group is that we have coaches that can flat out coach the defensive front. We will be much better on the line 8 games in than we will be in game one.
6) Yes. I know you folks think the world of your D, but we're returning a relatively more proven OL than your front 7. You have a talent advantage, sure, but we have a great OL coming in, combine with a senior, game changing QB. I think this is a case where experience is an advantage to us.
7) He's not the Rimington award winner that Molk was, but he'll be fine against elite DLs like yours. In terms of the actual matchup, I'd say it's 55/45 on a given play since the offense has an inherent advantage of moving first.
8) No. We have a great group of guys there and a great coaching staff. Our LBs are solid.
9) Absolutely. You guys have some talent, but the deep secondary (which I define as the FS and 2 CBs) are experienced and talented. This is actually the one matchup that I think clearly favors us.
10) For this specific game, I'd say that we'll be required to leave our CBs on an island more than we would like given your OL. With that said, our secondary will be very good over the course of the season and we're not going face a passing offense that will truly challenge them .
11) This is, again, an unknown. History suggests there will be some improvement, but it's hard to truly quantify this improvement. There are just too many variables.
12) This is not reliably answerable. The WR position is the 2nd biggest question mark we have behind our DL. We have talent there, but it's unproven. For this group to succeed, it will require an improvement by Denard in the short/intermediate passing game as well as an emergence of a true deep threat. I'm hoping Devin Gardner turns in to an Übermensch.
13) This is the biggest question. I am personally not optimistic, but if there is any coaching staff that can make this happen on game 1 against the best college OL in a decade, it's this one. Reasonable UM fans should just hope for a stalemate and count on our excellent back seven to hold things down.
With that said, I think for us to win this game, we will need to play a near perfect game, while you guys commit 1-2 costly errors. It will be very significant if Fitz plays or not.
August 29th, 2012 at 2:49 AM ^
Thanks for your reply: I will adress 9) and 10).
9) Save Kovacs, I don't think you have a DB on your roster that could or would take a starting spot from any starting DB in our Base, Nickel, or Dime packages. No offense, and I admit Bama homerism, but I truly believe my previous sentence, and I base it on what we return and what I saw your DB's do in the course of my watching roughly 7 complete games of yours last year.
10) We will test your DB's in the first drive, and continue to test them for the rest of the game - non-stop. There's a reasonable chance that we throw it a lot, a lot, a lot more than you think, particularly in the first half. The testing will not only come from the WR's, but also from the H, the TE, and our RB's. Heck, we will probably line up in a tackle eligible play twice in the game. You have to account for everyone.
August 29th, 2012 at 11:01 PM ^
You still don't know who one of your starting corners will be, and the likely starter is a JUCO guy who hasn't played a snap of D1 football. Meanwhile, Blake Countess is a returning starter who yes, made mistakes as a true freshman last year, but has experience and talent to build on. None of your corners are athletically superior than him and at 5'10", it's not like he's tiny.
August 30th, 2012 at 3:00 AM ^
The depth chart came out 2 days ago. Starting corners are Dee Milliner and Deion Belue (JUCO). John Fulton will play the nickel.
August 29th, 2012 at 8:47 AM ^
your questions, even though some may not be answered fully until the game is actually played and are just speculation on my part.
1. Assuming Touissaint doesn't play I would expect Rawls to get the majority of the carries on first and second down situations, given the positive things the coaches have said about him. Vincent Smith, the senior you refer to, will most likey get some carries and be the designiated third down back, due to his pass blocking ability. He has been a pretty solid player in his career, averaged over 5 yards a carry last year and is a good receiver out the backfield. He is the primary screen guy at RB. The other young RB's like Justice Hayes might get a short look as well.
2. Obviously, I don't think Denard will shred Alabama with his legs, based on the strength of their defense, but I expect him to create some problems for Alabama's defense. I do believe he will have to have a good day passing and make some big plays in the passing game to win the game.
3. Not really, Gibbons is solid kicker from 40 yards and in, but his range is limited. The other kicker, Wile, has a bigger leg, but is less accurate and is unproven in game situations.
4. There is no sigficant situation at LB for Michigan. All three starters return and should be very good. There are some young guys behind them, but that shouldn't be a major issue if the starters stay healthy. As far as the other positions I can't say for sure, Alabama has alot of talent at CB, but some of it is unproven. I think the same could be said of Michigan's d-line. WR's for UM is a concern though, it is not devoid of talent, but there are some questions. I think Roundtree and Gallon will provide decent production, it is a matter of what production they can get from other WR's.
5. To be honest I am not sure how much of Mattison's blitz packages were left out last season, as they blitzed frequently last season already, from multiple angles. As far as a jump on defense it is hard to say. The returning players have more familarity with the scheme, but the losses of Martin and Van Bergen will have to absorbed by guys like Campbell stepping up their game.
6. Yes, Alabama's defense is obviously going to be tough, but UM was a very good to profilic offense in most games last year.
7. Barnum is a fifth year senior, with game experience at other OL positions. He is obviously learning the center position, but he has the tools and experience to be a solid center this year.
8. No, not with the starters at least. Like I said before the starting linebackers are all returning, and started the majority of the games last year. There is some youth behind those guys, but I would expect the starters to get the majority of the snaps. Linebacker should be a position of strength this season.
9. Yes, I believe they can. They performed well in man coverage last year, in most games. There were some issues in the OSU and ND games last year, but besides that the secondary held up well. Countess is a talented sophmore who started all of last year, and JT Floyd is an experienced player who showed sigficant improvement last year. Avery is a solid nickel back with sigficant game experience, as well.
10. Not sure, only the coaches could answer this. My guess would be sometimes. Countess showed some good bump and run skills last year. Countess and Floyd, in particular aren't speed burners so I wouldn't expect bump and run to be the primary coverage. Mattison prefers to zone blitz quite frequently.
11. Once again you would have to ask the coaches, since we haven't seen him practicing like the coaches have. I do expect him to improve as a passer, due to the increased familarity with Borges and his style of playcalling. I don't think he will become a great passer, but I think you can reasonably expect 60% completions and a decent drop in interceptions. First and foremost this will still be run offense, but I expect Denard to be a bigger threat with his arm this year.
12. Once again, past Roundtree and Gallon, WR is unknown quantity. Dileo at slot receiver, did some nice things in limited action last year. I do think th other wide receivers on the roster are athletic enough to make some plays, it is matter of how comfortable they are in the offense.
13. Not sure, this remains to be seen. Alabama o-line is very good unit, I believe there is enough talent on UM's d-line to hold up in theory, we will see how it works in practice. The UM's coaches at D-line seem to be very solid, and Hoke himself focuses on this unit.
Also for the record I did find your questions somewhat condenscending and arrogant. Half of them seemed to be backhanded insults at UM, to be honest. Just so you are aware Alabama is actually playing a good team this week, that went 11-2 last year and won a BCS game, not some D2 team that has no bussiness being on the field with Bama.