Questioning preseason hype
Every August we dissect press conference wording and drink up insider practice buzz. It only takes a word out of a coaches mouth. Hype is repeated, opinions are formed, and expectations are set.
By every October we discard them. The hype is never right, not fully. Our summer certainties mostly disappear, though some linger bitterly into next season. (James Ross seems to be the most disappointing sophomore starter and almost team-leading tackler ever).
Last year, there were several “surprises”. Green didn’t look close to the most talented freshman RB in the country. Thomas wasn’t the “starting nickelback”. Miller wasn’t an upgrade to Mealer. Omameh and Kwiatkowski was badly missed. Ross and Clark weren’t all-americans. Upon appeal, Kalis’ red-shirt was upheld by the supreme court of Prove It On The Field. We (coaches included) were wrong about the starting center, again, and many other things.
That got me thinking about this year– where are our expectations misguided now? Where should we pump our brakes? For the contrarians and skeptics out there, here’s some expectations to think twice about.
1. Devin Funchess : NFL-bound #1 WR. Good to very good is a given, but the Calvin Johnson talk (even the Marques Colston talk) might be insane. Not everyone adapts to #1 CBs plus constant safety help. At the very least, he might struggle (relative to expectations) as a deep threat. This IS still, technically, a position-change.
2. Amara Darboh: #2 WR. The unanimous opinion from Mgoblog asserts Darboh is ‘04 Avant. But what if Funchess is the (tall) Avant? The 80-reception #1 target ’05 version of Avant. What if Funchess’ talents are wasted running fly routes that blocking can’t support? If ’05 is the right year for parallels, Funchess needs Manningham and Breaston to go deep and do damage on screens (like Norfleet, Canteen, Chesson, maybe Harris can do).
3. Braden & Miller: starters. Regardless of the rationale, it’s hard to completely forget they sat while walk-ons and true freshman started last year. Maybe they got a whole lot better, or fit the new scheme… or maybe the coaching staff is wishful more than wise.
4. Keith Heitzman: natural TE. Butt is hurt and Williams has struggled. We need a TE or two or four. Enter a guy who has proven to be a solid football player and who seems happy to have cut down his weight. The thing is - position changes can be hard.
5. Green or Smith: it matters. Downhill back is a fun idea, but the field is still mostly flat. Until our OL proves otherwise, there are going to be a lot of 3rd downs and passing situations. Whoever the Uphill back is (Johnson/Hayes?), he is likely to get the bulk of snaps when the important games are decided.
6. Erik Magnuson: starter. The aborted move to LT might be about Cole and Braden being good, or it might be about him being not that good. He hasn’t started a full season yet, and if some of the other OL options pan out, Mags might be the odd man. Maybe not quite powerful enough for guard and not quite talented enough for tackle?
7. Jabrill Peppers; defender/kick returner. You’ve seen the highlights. Seriously, not going to use him on offense? Ever?
And on D:
1. Jabrill Peppers :“starting nickelback”. I see you former freshman sensation Dymonte Thomas.
2. Joe Bolden: starter. Bolden is good, experienced, talented. Morgan is probably still better on gameday.
3. Jarrod Wilson: safety cornerstone. Our defense played very soft last year, in part (I suspect) to protect Wilson. Now, he’s asked to player closer to the line of scrimmage, which may suit him OR introduce uncertainty for a guy who is just settling in. Most NFL safeties are not nearly as big as Wilson and we have talented and about-to-be-benched CBs who can play.
4. RJS: near-starter. I’ll eat an unspecified fruit if he displaces Ross or even cuts into his snaps significantly. If somebody does that it’s probably a DB.
5. Mo Hurst’s butt: not glued to the bench. The probably fake-starters last week were Glasgow (NTG) and Godin. No one believes that will hold, but Pipkins and Mone are big dudes who will play Wormley’s been hyped for 3 years now, and Henry has a similar skillset. Hurst is the most likely of the prominent DL candidates to lose out, no matter how much rotation there is at these 2 positions.
6. Jourdan Lewis: starter. I’m probably buying the hype here, to be honest, but Taylor and Countess aren’t just going to sit on the bench all year and Lewis barely separated from Stribling last season. [Note: wrote this before Hoke's presser]
7. Channing Stribling: bench-warmer. Stribling was pretty damn awesome for a freshman. On par with Lewis. Normally we’d be swooning over a ball-hawking 6’2 CB that has gained strength and experience. Guys like him tend to find their way onto the field.
Many of the above will turn out to be true. Maybe most of them. But some won’t. If nothing else, remember the coaches are intentionally BSing us right now. Hiding injuries, motivating players, keeping opponents guessing.
Don’t believe everything you read, especially this.
August 23rd, 2014 at 3:10 PM ^
I hear you, at least in terms of the defense, and that's why i'm buying into the defensive hype. They don't seem nearly as confident about the offense, and while that's expected, doesn't really make me feel too optimistic. I am just hoping the offense improves over the course of the year, and really the team in general. Last year the team seemed to get worse over the course of the year, with the exception of the OSU game.
August 23rd, 2014 at 3:20 PM ^
...but no way they should be as confident about the offense (in comparison to the defense), and we shouldn't either.
August 23rd, 2014 at 3:09 PM ^
August 23rd, 2014 at 3:15 PM ^
We had every right to be hype...
We played an amazing game and our OL held its own versus two potential top-15 draft picks on ND's DL.
If we get that team for 13 games, we're not 7-6.
Many fans base their hype off of the ceiling of a team. With all of these injuries to teams on our schedule, fans now feel like we can beat anyone. Doesn't mean we will, but they feel like we've got a shot if we play our best game. 13-1 is probably our ceiling in most fans minds. I think most fans would say we can beat everyone on our schedule...but we're not in that top 7-8 class even though we'd end up in the playoff if we were 13-0.
ND just lost key players, OSU lost key players, MSU was never supposed to be as good as they were last year. Michigan fans see that and it adds to the hype and the hope.
August 23rd, 2014 at 4:07 PM ^
the game itself was amazing, but I felt like our offensive and defensive lines were clearly subpar compared to ND. I figured maybe ND was just elite and we were average, but that slowly started to fade to reality.
August 23rd, 2014 at 5:33 PM ^
August 24th, 2014 at 3:37 PM ^
Watch how quickly and accurately Gardner gets rid of the ball in the face of constant pressure. Or he does that loop around thing that ND wasn't prepared for.
The ND defensive coordinator didn't know how to exploit the weakness, and certainly didn't have pregame practice time employing defensive schemes tuned to our OLine's weakness.
August 23rd, 2014 at 11:25 PM ^
The comments on here are typically a couple wins above what vegas says.
Probably about the same with most other fanbases.
August 23rd, 2014 at 3:10 PM ^
Nice post. Although the "Butt is Hurt" line looks a little awkward when stated that way.
August 23rd, 2014 at 3:17 PM ^
August 23rd, 2014 at 3:17 PM ^
I also don't buy ALL the hype, but who does after all the disappointment since 2007.....but I really believe that Peppers will the best freshmen we've seen since Hart/Henne. I expect him to give us that same excitement when he touches the ball that denard gave us against wmu in 2009, but be much more polished at his position from the first game. He is also a physical freak. I also expect huge things from funchess also, who is also a physical freak.
I am certain the defense will be much improved, but not sure about best in the big10, but could easily be top 20 nationally. It won't be last year's msu and certainly not 1997 or 2001 Miami quality, but it will carry the team.
The o-line also can't get worse. It can't...can it?
The overall record should improve, can't get much worse than 7-6 with that much 4 star talent.
Everything else is a toss up, including Devin Gardner I think.
August 23rd, 2014 at 11:30 PM ^
I'm just preparing myself to be disappointed...
I think our D is legit and will be the best in the conference. Our offense, which people are skeptical about, may be even worse than that. Expectations for Funchess are a little nuts right now, and the OL could derail the whole season. That said, I think Gardner is the real deal. I believe in Canteen and Norfleet. The big question (besides the OL) is Nussmeir. I'm skeptical Borges was as bad as everyone is saying right now, but if Nuss is the offensive equivalent of Mattison, a turnaround could be in order. On offense that protects the OL with lots of shorts passes, quick screens, QB options, etc can mitigate the personnel issues.
August 23rd, 2014 at 3:19 PM ^
August 23rd, 2014 at 3:26 PM ^
August 24th, 2014 at 11:43 AM ^
Among the other things I screamed at the TV during the MSU game last year was constant profanity about the lack of a slant, screen, or dump to the flat when everyone knew a blitz was coming. Borges had nothing in the offense that day for Gardner to check to as he was coming under fire. Sometimes the problem on the field is player execution, sometimes it's coaches not putting a guy in position to succeed. Last year's MSU game was most certainly the latter.
August 23rd, 2014 at 3:28 PM ^
August 23rd, 2014 at 6:19 PM ^
Generally agree on all points.
Worried about the safety position. Wilson is not "great" but its scary to think if he gets hurt what happens back there. We have zero experience behind him. Furman if he had stayed probably would be starting or worst case the 3rd S.
And DEs I am worried about a lack of production aside from Clark. Space Cowboy has assured me yesterday that we will be fine with Beyer at his size due to formation and when we switch alignments we will have much bigger men there. If I see Charlton and Poggi flash like Wormley and Henry did last year by game 4-5 I will feel a lot better about that DE.
But every team in the country has weaknesses and I think by game 3-4 - assuming Wilson develops further we could have plus players at 9 out of the 11 positions which is rare. I do expect a few big plays to go over the top of our safeties or a broken run assignment leading to some big gash plays but hopefully they learn quick.
August 23rd, 2014 at 11:34 PM ^
Excited about the D. DTs - we have a lot of candidates but no one is really proven. Still, with that many guys...someone is going to emerge.
Not worried about DEs either. Expect Clark to be a terror and Byer/Charlton/Ojemudia to fill the other side adequately. Oh, and I think Marshall will play a role on 3rd downs too. Legit talent who is getting no hype right now...
August 23rd, 2014 at 3:30 PM ^
Sometimes it's frustrating not really knowing about the x's and o's when I'm on this blog. Other times, I'm nothing but thankful because I can go into the season blissfully ignorant and just watch games and let them unfold, as they do anyway.
August 23rd, 2014 at 3:33 PM ^
Although, I have to say, I remember you were one of the few people throwing cold water on the "it can't be worse" and "we have an huge upgrade in talent" lines of thinking regarding the OL... so, I hope you're less accurate with this thread, because if half those things are true, we're in for a long season.
August 23rd, 2014 at 11:39 PM ^
My point wasn't really to be negative as much as it was to be cautious. Some of these expectations are really tradeoffs: Darboh vs Chesson or Canteen, Green/Smith vs Johnson/Hayes. There are certainly low-expectation guys that I think can do a lot more than people are saying, so it works both ways.
Examples:
Bellomy, Hayes, Chesson, Williams, Bosch, Burzynski, Marshall, Mone, Gedeon, Stribling, Hill
August 23rd, 2014 at 3:36 PM ^
It's easy to say that Mattison's playcalling was horrible last year when we had less talented DBs. If he plays aggressive and we get beat over the top for a 70 yard touchdown 3 times a game then you'll ask why we didn't play off more.
August 23rd, 2014 at 11:46 PM ^
Mattison is one of the best things about our program.
"last year when we had less talented DBs"?
Same guys are back, mostly. Lost our starting safety, gain a 5-star nickel CB. Talent may have increased, but only on the margins. What we've gained is experience, since 3 of the 4 starters return and the freshman backup CBs are now sophomore backup CBs. Safety is a huge question mark though - Gordon had a nice career at Michigan.
August 23rd, 2014 at 4:38 PM ^
August 23rd, 2014 at 4:48 PM ^
August 23rd, 2014 at 6:12 PM ^
If you want to see a hype train completely off the rails, look no further than eleven warriors: http://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2014/08/39140/eleven-warriors-roundtable-season-preview-edition
Somehow they have spun it so that the team is better without Braxton. I think we're downright pessimistic in comparison.
August 24th, 2014 at 12:35 PM ^
Reading their roundtable season review, makes it sound like Braxton's injury was a good thing for the benefit of the offense, that it will improve effectiveness through greater diversity relying on Barrett as a distributor instead of having Miller as the focal point with a supporting cast.
This could be true. Until it's not. And so if you buy into that belief system as a preseason salvation then you also have to believe like they do that their defense will be lights out because of their dynamic defensive line answering every question that would otherwise preoccupy opponents moving the ball against them.
Anyway, you talk about drinking the hype and this fanbase doesn't come close to the mainlining going on in Columbus. Not even an injury to their best player prevents one analyst from projecting OSU to be a chalk team with the capability of one upset, presumably against Sparty in EL. Win that, and the team is off to the championship game and then the playoffs, according to their thinking.
I do agree with them on one thing, how Sparty plays at home in its biggest games will decide the conference representative.
August 23rd, 2014 at 7:03 PM ^
August 23rd, 2014 at 7:25 PM ^
You're bumming us out, dad!!!
I was talking to a girlfriend about the team just this afternoon, along these same lines. We were both SO EXCITED last year, all summer and especially after Notre Dame. I swore this year I wouldn't let the hype get to me. But I admit, I have. That's why I have mgoblog. To keep me grounded.
August 23rd, 2014 at 8:36 PM ^
August 23rd, 2014 at 8:43 PM ^
There's so much untested, or semi-tested, talent on this roster that hype, or overhype, seems inevitable. Some will come through, others to a lesser extent. But let's not forget the luxury we have of hyping players like Smith, Green, Johnson, Hayes, Cole, Braden, Norfleet, Canteen, Darboh, Ways, Mone, Hurst, Gedeon, Stribling, Thomas, Peppers, et al. The numbers look good even if only half those guys come through.
August 23rd, 2014 at 9:14 PM ^
August 23rd, 2014 at 9:20 PM ^
@OP, I agree with your main point. I think the evidence so far (like Lewis and Peppers not being named starting corners at Hoke's presser yesterday) adds up to a strong discount on hype. I think this team is going to look a whole lot like last year's team. Hope I'm wrong. I was wrong last year, so hey, could be.
August 24th, 2014 at 5:14 AM ^
Here are my bold predictions ...just like the hype I cant substantiate it on facts:
1. The WR group is not gonna be as good as the hype. gallon is gone and it will take time to fill those shoes. I think we will see some key drops this year.
2. The defence is going to be better but we will not be a lockdown defence. There will be some frustration on the D Line as again there wont be any clear leaders.
3. The OL is gonna be average and thats gonna be an upgrade.
4. DG will be better this year ...but wont get better support from the rest of the team.
5. The running game will be better than last year but still a work in progress.
6. We will again get burnt by spread teams and do well against typical B1G teams...
7. J Pep will be good and will have 1-2 plays that will showup on highlight reels but will not be All B1G player this year.
Pls dont try and refute these with logic as these are gut feels. U are welcome to argue against this with ure gut feels though...
August 24th, 2014 at 11:51 AM ^
1. You could be right, but this is one position where I think Borges did badly misutilize the talent he had. He loved to play walk-ons (and Jeremy Jackson types) like no OC I've ever seen before. Norfleet and Canteen are talents that if used properly will make a big difference in the offense.
2. The way I see it - the odds are high that someone at DT emerges into an all-conference player. Too much talent and proven coaching for this not to work out favorably at DT. The talet at DE is not that high, but two seniors are starting, and Charlton and Marshall have legit potential (though probably better fits in the Under)
3. Nuss would have to work a miracle for the OL to be average. There's almost zero chance of this happening.
4. DG can win some games by himself.
5. See 3. The running game is going to be bad...but hopefully better than last year.
6. History says yes.
7. Agree. Expectations have gotten crazy.
August 24th, 2014 at 11:28 AM ^
13 games played, no interceptions, hell, not even a pass broken up, ball wrestled from his hands for a long TD against Indiana, two missed knockdowns/INTs on consecutive plays to let PSU tie the game in the last 30 seconds...
Our standard of "awesome" has come way down.
August 24th, 2014 at 11:58 AM ^
Preseason hype (justified or not) will always be part of college football and is exciting and fun for most fans.
Some fans are very depressed and the only fun they get out of life is trying to make other fans miserable.
Lighten up and have some fun.
It's only a game.
August 24th, 2014 at 3:50 PM ^
Agree. It's only a game, and we are stir crazy now that it's game week. Folks need to lighten up.
That being said--I noticed that folks keep talking about X player 'working out' or 'not working out' when it comes to the prediction game. And for the most part, that and the coaching (both technique/practice and in-game coaching) are the dominant factors. So the "hype" mostly depends on how well a team does each seson depends on whether the "hype" was met or not by the usual suspects.
But even if some of them do not pan out, it can be mitigated by an unexpectedly good performance from somewhere else. It never is simply a "did this person work out or not" type of question. It really boils down to "did this person work out, and if not, did somebody unexpected step up to mitigate the situation anyway?"