Purdue 35. Missouri 3

Submitted by MichiganMan14 on
Big challenge next weekend in West Lafayette. This Purdue team is damn good and they have a coach in Brohm that was lighting it up last year at WKU. The red zone issues need to get fixed in the next 6 days.
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TheTeamTheTeam…

September 16th, 2017 at 10:05 PM ^

This x1000, only QBs more susceptible to throwing picks (Other than Wilton) in B1G right now are Tanner Lee and David Blough. I feel like Purdue is the opposite of Air Force, at least in the fact that they want to pass a lot which will turn into sacks and picks. I put the over under of sacks at 6.5 and say our defense scores a TD

Joined: 06/16/2016

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J.

September 16th, 2017 at 11:23 PM ^

If there are teams that "Vegas is often wrong on," that information would get out immediately and the situation would correct itself.  If Michigan had gone 25-1 ATS over that period, the oddsmakers would have been increasing the line over time to compensate.  I'd expect that if you looked up most teams, you'd find that they go about .500 ATS.

There's no surefire strategy to win at sports betting, or everyone would use it.

Joined: 03/11/2012

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Red is Blue

September 16th, 2017 at 11:56 PM ^

Oddsmakers could care less whether Michigan was 1000 and 0 ATS. They only care if they is equal money on either side of the spread. What would happen is more betters would recognize this and would lay more money on Michigan causing the line to move.

Joined: 05/13/2010

MGoPoints: 23889

J.

September 17th, 2017 at 1:10 AM ^

And that's why they would care if Michigan were 1000-0 ATS.  The sharps would eat them alive.

The oddsmakers can't afford to be so far off to begin with that they're making it all up in line movement, because, if they are, they expose themselves to big money coming in and throwing things off.

Joined: 03/11/2012

MGoPoints: 13057

Red is Blue

September 17th, 2017 at 12:22 PM ^

They only care that the money is even on either side of the line. They don't care about the predictive value of their initial line wrt the actual outcome of the game. Your straw dog with the line moving indicates they didn't set the original line to achieve even money not that they care about the actual results ATS. Now obviously you'd expect the rational bettor to recognize that Michigan always beat the spread and therefore you'd expect the rational bettor to start laying more on Michigan. To achieve even money, the lines then set by odds makers would trend toward Michigan being 50/50 ATS. But, this is a function of odds makers trying to keep the money even not odds makers caring about the predictive value of their lines to the actual outcome.

Joined: 05/13/2010

MGoPoints: 23889

J.

September 17th, 2017 at 1:14 AM ^

No, hitting 50 percent of your bets would leave you about 4.5% in the red, depending upon the vig.  For betting against the spread, it's most common for the vig to be 10% -- bet $55 to win $50.  (You'll see this written as -110).  So, if you bet $55 ten times, you'll be up $250 on your wins but down $275 on your losses.  Out of your original $550, you'd have $525 left -- down 4.5%.

Joined: 03/11/2012

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bronxblue

September 16th, 2017 at 9:49 PM ^

Yeah, this was a team that didn't break 4.5 yards per play against Louisville, and Missouri may well have the worst defense in the country amongst P5 teams.  Michigan's worst offensive output of the year (today's game against Air Force) was 5.6 ypc.  I get Purdue is putting up good numbers thus far, but they haven't come close to playing a team like Michigan.  

Joined: 11/22/2008

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SalvatoreQuattro

September 16th, 2017 at 7:29 PM ^

Mizzou looked like a team that has quit on their coach. The dismissal of the DC earlier in the week ought to have been a harbinger of what we saw today. Purdue is improved but how much we will learn next week. UM is the first good defense they will have played.

Joined: 11/30/2010

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I Like Burgers

September 16th, 2017 at 8:42 PM ^

They aren't going to keep scoring at their 36 ppg clip, but I do think they can put up over 20 on this defense. Because for as good as this defense is, they haven't played anyone that can pass like Purdue can. Hell, they haven't played anyone offensively competent this season and they've shown they are vulnerable to big plays. Cincy had them beat for some big plays but just blew it.

I think Michigan is going to have to score 30+ to win this game and I don't know if they can do it. If they play like they did the last two weeks, they are going to lose.

Joined: 10/06/2012

MGoPoints: 30574

I Like Burgers

September 16th, 2017 at 9:44 PM ^

Don't get me wrong, I think Michigan will probably win, but I just don't think its the slam dunk we all thought it was to start the season.  Instead of being like a 95% chance to win, I'd say its more like 66% or so.  Couple of coverage busts, a couple of bad offensive errors like we've seen the first three weeks, they could get to 28pts pretty easy.

So yeah, sorry for not being uber-specific and saying Michigan will need 29+ to win this game.  Figured y'all would get the point if I said 30.

Joined: 10/06/2012

MGoPoints: 30574

Goggles Paisano

September 17th, 2017 at 6:05 AM ^

Mizzou is clearly THE worst team in the SEC and one of the worst teams in the country.  The clock management alone at the end of the half screams that their HC is way over his head. Brady Hoke would be like Vince Lombardi compared to what they have in place.  They need to clean house asap.  

Purdue on the other hand looked good in all phases.  I bet if they did Draftegeddon over, there might be a few more Purdue players chosen.  This will be an interesting game and certainly no gimme.  Purdue also hung with Louisville for most of that game a couple weeks ago.  

Joined: 07/30/2011

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Logan88

September 17th, 2017 at 10:19 AM ^

Air Force's offense is good-ish and UM stufed them outiside of one long pass play which usually happens against triple-option teams.

Purdue will be a completely different challenge but I think UM's defense will be fairly effective. The real problem is the offense which looks worse every week (Hire Borges?).

I agree that this game went from a Rutgers-type LOL laugher to an Indiana-type collar puller. I still expect UM to win but won't be completely shocked if they lose a close game like I would have been before the season started.

Joined: 01/05/2009

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