Projecting our recruiting class
So I figured with the overwhelming fixation on Schroedinger's RB, and this article from Rivals, it's a good time to try to project our recruiting class this year.
Per Rivals, who either projects us or LSU as the year's top class:
What Mike Farrell says: "I think Michigan jumped off to a better start last year, but I think I am more impressed this year. The quality of player is about the same, so what I mean by more impressed is that Michigan is more diversified and it is also expanding its footprint. It is getting into some new areas and getting kids. Having a player like Jabrill Peppers on board is huge because of what he brings to the table. I think they have a really good shot at getting both of the top players in the country with Da'Shawn Hand showing serious interest."
What the numbers say: If Michigan can land Hand and continue to round out a solid class around him then it would have the recruit average as well as the bonus points to push to No. 1. As it stands right now, the projections show that the Wolverines will be in for a fight with Ohio State for the top slot in the Big Ten conference. The data indicates that the team should come close to surpassing its total points from last season when it finished No. 5 with 2,661. It doesn't need much more than that to claim a national title in recruiting this year. Set the floor at No. 5 with a ceiling of knocking Alabama off the mountain.
So I'll start this month's WHO DO WE GETTT!!!? thread by structuring it this way - give me a list of 7 commits, which will put us at 21. Order that list by who is most likely to sign on the dotted line, not by who is the most wanted. Also, where do we finish in terms of overall recruiting class. (The answer is 4) My list:
1. Malik McDowell
2. De'Shawn Hand
3. Juju Smith
4. Montae Nicolson
5. Kalen Ballage
6. Leonard Fournette
7. Parrker Westphal
If we get all of your 7 recruits and only finish 4th overall, 3 schools are cheating.
Quasi-legitish. MAYBE.
True, but I don't think we land more than 3 of those guys. They are the most likely, but I think we will see 3-4 generic 2-3* Jimmy McSchmidterbottom type recruits to fill out the class.
recruits we get to round out the class, I have full confidence that they'll be solid citizens and worthy of representing the University of Michigan. Hoke and Co. wouldn't offer them otherwise. Stars are irrelevant.
this is white noise
If we can snag McDowell, Hand, Nicholson, and Westphal, we'll be in good standing.
We will be awesome nevertheless...
would we even take ballage in the unlikely event that we got fournette?
I doubt it, but he does seem to be the only backup plan now.
I don't think Michigan gets 7 more commits, I think it'll be 4 or 5. I'll list 7, but the the probability really drops after 5. I think we likely get 3 or 4 out of the top 5 and secure someone who people aren't thinking of now, either because he's relatively off the radar or because he has been offered yet. Finish at 18/19 commits with class. Anyway
1. Montae Nicholson
2. Kalen Ballage
3. Da'Shawn Hand
4. Malik McDowell
5. Parrker Westphal
6. Dwight Williams
7. John "JuJu" Smith
McDowell
Fournette
Nicholson
JuJu
McDowell, Nicholson, Hand, Fournette, & a wild card. JuJu doens't appear to be likely at this point, but we'll see after his official.
- Malik McDowell
- De'Shawn Hand
- Jimmie Swain
- Montae Nicolson
- Jelen Embry
- Ashton Jackson
Is this a wish list or a prediction thread? Fournette isn't leaving the south. Sorry guys. It has been a great accomplishment to get him to visit, but I'll be shocked if it isn't a Bama/LSU decision when it's all said and done.
I think Michigan has the best shot with Hand and McDowell from this list. I think they can also bring in Nicholson and/or Westphal. I don't think we take a RB this year, but make up for it with Damien Harris and Mike Webber next year.
What indicates that? The fact that he set out to spend his own money on an unofficial visit? The fact that he has seen both schools innumerable times, and has yet to pull the trigger? The fact that Fournette himself has repeatedly shot down the fact that he knows he wants to go to either school? The fact that PAWWWL and other media people regurgitate the argument so many times?
It's a big red flag when a guy has seen a few schools inside and out, and is still willing to spend his own money to look elsewhere. I don't get the whole "he's staying south" argument. I'm not saying this as a homer. I feel the same way about Westphal, and to an extent McDowell and Hand. Even though they are on my most likely to commit list, each have had their shot to commit and have yet to do so. That's why I don't think anyone in the country is a surefire bet for Michigan in this class.
I think it's apparently true that Fournette is interested enough in Michigan / disinterested enough in Bama/LSU to spend his own money to visit
OTOH, I think we get stuck in a mgobubble when we all predict Fournette to end up here. Hasn't he been to Texas several times and had very rosy things to say about them too? Plus, distance is always a factor and if his grandma really is ill, he might not want to end up 1000 miles away from home with the risk of something signifiant happening (you see kids transfer back home fairly often due to illnesses in the family)
I think we've probably got like a 10-30% chance and visiting sure can't hurt
I don't think it is a red flag at all. Why do athletes have to pick a college so much earlier than everyone else? Aren't they allowed to be a little closer to normal and pick during their senior year? I would rather have a kid wait and make up his mind for sure as opposed to go back on his word, affecting the coaches' recruiting strategy and other kids' options.
I'm not very optimistic on Fournette yet. He has yet to visit campus. I would love to get him, but realistically, we are looking at pursuing two great targets, Harris and Weber, hard for 2015.
In the same respect that Fournette not having committed to a southern school yet shouldn't be interpreted strongly against those schools, I don't think the fact that McDowell and Westphal haven't committed to Michigan yet shouldn't deter our hopes for them. While no one is claiming they or anyone else are surefire bets for Michigan (this is a prediction thread after all), Michigan has to be considered the tenative favorites for these two.
I'm unusually bullish on Fournette, but I do agree with your points. Typically, in this situation, the team in the preceived lead can be considered a tentative leader. I just get a vibe that we are in a much stronger position than most people think. I was also replying to "Fournette isn't leaving the south." which is just a wrong statement. Just as it would be wrong for me to say "McDowell is guaranteed to be blue."
It isn't unusual for kids to look at all choices before deciding. What it does say, though, is that no school blew him away to this point. If a school flat out blows away a potential student, 9 times out of 10, a little more research is done, and the search is over. I think Fournette is going to be blown away by Michigan, very much like Peppers was. The obvious difference is that Peppers has always been a Michigan fan.
exactly fournette reminds me of treadwell and rojo been to lsu and bama several times but looks like he is looking for something else and really doesnt want to go there i am not saying michigan is where he is going to go but i wouldnt be shocked if he didnt go to lsu or alabama either
My list, in order of probability:
1. McDowell
2. Westphal
3. Some player with 3* on some sites, 4* on others that we are not currently thinking of
4. Nicholson
5. Hand
6. Fournette
7. Some other player with 3* on some sites, 4* on others that we are not currently thinking of.
Note that I think that we will only take 5 more kids, so my confidence level for Fournette and "other 3-4* kid" is pretty low.
I have to agree with this list the most. I also think there is a real possibility that Pallante gets the grey shirt removed and moved up to this class like Jeremy Clark a couple classes before. There is the one obvious difference that DL will be more crowded in the 2014 class than safety was in Clark's class though (Wilson and Gant were the others and Gant ended up moving to SAM recently I believe), so it would probably take us missing out on either Hand or McDowell for that to actually take place. I certainly hope we don't miss out on either of them, but we don't really have any other DL that we are pursuing all that hard.
At this point I might even put Nicholson at 2 and move Westphal down to 3 or 4.
I would be very happy with just one of Fournette, Hand, and Smith. I think we get Westphal and McDowell in the fold eventually. We'll probably take a couple "controversial" commits (as in not consensus 4*, OMG panic) here and there to fill needs. If there are still spots open, I hope we snag another Purdue commit. The image of Brady Hoke casually strolling into Purdue's football office, thumbing through the LOI's in their fax machine tray and pulling the one he wants is just hilarious.
But I'm surprised that so many people believe McDowell is so much more likely to commit than Hand. McDowell has been super quiet about his plans, and whenever he says something vaguely positive about Michigan he retracts it almost immediately. Hand, on the other hand, has been very vocal about the fact that Michigan is one of his top schools, if not his outright leader. Seems to me like the vibes are much more positive from Hand than McDowell.
To me McDowell really sounds like a kid that loves Michigan but is being advised to explore his options and keep his cards close to the vest until the end. He said he wanted to commit as a sophomore but his parents wouldn't let him. Then, numerous times when asked in off the cuff interviews he responds enthusiastically about Michigan only to issue very canned, PR-type statements that say despite what he said, he's still wide open. I'm not saying he's a lock, but the signs do seem to suggest he really does like Michigan better than everyone else.
Don't see why it is surprising most think McDowell is more likely? McDowell is a Michigan kid, just moved to Southfield, will be playing with Michigan commit Lawrence Marshall. Meanwhile, Hand is in the south, will be pulled in all directions, and though we are leading, there is always room for an SEC school to swoop in. Anyways, most likely we get McDowell, Hand, and someone off the radar currently. Fournette is not coming to Michigan, in fact he won't be here this weekend even.
Sam Webb confirmed it this morning. They aren't in A2 and were supposed to be yesterday.
Do you have a link to Sam confirming LF won't be visiting this weekend? I sure haven't seen one posted on this board.
It's on scout.
Everything that you just said about McDowell requires an assumption that it makes him more interested in Michigan. Hand has given concrete evidence that he is very interested in Michigan.
Also, McDowell is being "pulled in all directions" in the same way that Hand is. Both young men can pretty much go to whatever school in the country they want.
One lives 35 minutes from the big house. I tend to make a pretty large assumption that the coaches can easily make contact with him, Hand not so much. You can bet that there will be someone from UM at every Southfield game, Hand not so much. McDowell has named UM as his leader is several stories, I am not sure how much more interested you can be.
Did I miss something? Virginia is considered the "south" now?
What the hell else would you consider Virginia? Seriously? It's only been considered the south since, Oh the Civil War.
and while it was a big part of the confederacy and all that, it's not really the south. It's got a southern feel in places but it's not in the same class as Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, etc. It's borderland between mid-atlantic stuff (DE, MD, DC), mountain folk (KY, TN, WV) and the sort of south (TN, NC)
You than sir are an idiot from a geographical and historical sense. Go to any best souther schools and it will always include Virginia. Virginia litterally touches 4 states that are all considered the south, with Maryland being the only one not considered the south. Richmond was the Capital of the south. Google the south, look at a map, it will include Virginia. Go to UVa, they very much consider themselves the gentlemen of the south. I was born in North Carolina, it is the south. In every way a state can be southern, it is the south. This is a pointless conversation, if you're too stupid to understand basic geography than all logic is lost on you.
I acknowledge that Virginia was a key piece of the confederacy and southern tradition, but people in Virginia only sometimes call themselves southerners and north of Richmond I think most people identify with the DC/Baltimore atmosphere which is really not the south.
Maybe rurally and further south in the state they call themselves southererns but around Richmond (where I lived) there was never a strong feeling of being in the south.
And I suppose by "4 states that are all considered the south" you're referring to NC, TN, KY, and WV. WV has never been part of the south in any capacity, and Kentucky is only maybe barely a southern state (I consider both of them to just be mountain-folk states largely)
And if you'd care to call me too stupid to understand basic geography, here's a map of the US which shows that Virginia is basically half way up. It's a mid-atlantic state and fits in more with MD and DE, not Mississippi and Alabama
You're an idiot. Plain and simple. The culture is southern outside of Loudoun County (metro-DC area). I am southern, you're some guy who transplanted and thinks they have some understanding of what it means to be southern. When the capital of the confederacy is in your state, you're the south. WV split from Virginia when they were southern colonies. I don't know what your definition of southern is, but because a ste is not Mississippi isn't a good one. Saying Kentucky, Tenessee, or NC aren't the south is something someone not from the south would say. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_United_States
Below Toledo.
I hear this in South Carolina as well. "Virginian is not in the South..." Hello, Robert E. Lee? Stonewall Jackson? Capital of the Confederacy? Folks, Virginian is in the South. Culturally, Northern Virginian is not Southern, but these players are not from Northern Virginia.
North Carolina here, and yes Virginia was the Capital of the South. LOL, midwesterners, must have skipped geography class.
As a Virginian, yes it's the south. It's always been the south.