Projecting a Final 2015 Recruiting Rank between 25-33
TL;DR - Harbaugh!!
I know for some recruiting is an obsession and there is a lot of worry. I've put on my Nate Silver hat and I am here to project UM's final class in a range of #25 to #33 as long as we have 16 openings. Let's discuss how.
UM currently has 6 commits. That's good enough for 96th in the nation. Woo hoo. (Don't fear, Florida is 94th with 8 commits) But considering we have a 2 star kicker for 1 slot, the average rank of 3.5 for the 6 is darn good. I am projecting a class of 16. Could be off by +/- 1 or 2, who knows with attrition but with Ferns and Funchess gone and the annual 3-4 transfers I think 16 is reasonable. I also chose 16 to make it simple to compare to the 2014 class.
Here is last year's 31st ranked class. Please note the AVERAGE rank of that class was 15th in the nation, but due to a low total # the overall rank was 31.
| School | Rank | Total | 5* | 4* | 3* | Ave |
| UM 2014 | 31 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 3.44 |
Note we had only 6 four stars last year.
Projection #1 - minor Harbaugh Kool Aid
- This year we already have 4 four stars - Cole, Kinnel, Malzone, Newsome. Harbaugh will find 3 more - so we jump to 7 total (last year we had 6).
- I then awarded the state of Chris Clark to Michigan because we still are in his top 3 and damnit, Harbaugh. So that's the 2015 five star to match last year's.
- There was a 2 star last year (Pallante) so it matches to this year's Andrew David.
- All remaining slots (6 of them) go to 3 stars.
Projection #2 - major Harbaugh Kool Aid
- Ok it's aggressive. Harbaugh lands five 4 stars in the next month to add to our current 4.
- Clark is the five star.
- All remaining slots (4 of them) go to 3 stars.
| School | Rank | Total | 5* | 4* | 3* | Ave |
| Projected 1 | 28-33 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 3.50 |
| Projected 2 | 25-28 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 3.63 |
Other data - peer group. Peer group is just the current landscape of schools out there with 17 or less recruits - ranked in the top 50-ish Of course they will move up and down as recruits file in, decommit, flip, etc. Those with larger classes will of course be ranked higher - but our average rank has the potenial to still be very good - probably only trailing LSU and Oklahoma among this peer group.
| School | Rank | Total | 5* | 4* | 3* | Ave |
| Stanford | 47 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 3.25 |
| Missouri | 42 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 3.20 |
| Nebraska | 41 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 3.31 |
| MSU | 33 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 3.33 |
| UNC | 25 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 3.35 |
| Arkansas | 24 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 3.41 |
| Ole Miss | 21 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 3.44 |
| Oregon | 19 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 3.35 |
| LSU | 18 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 3.67 |
| Oklahoma | 17 | 17 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 3.59 |
[All data via Rivals]
(Above photo has nothing to do with the content of this post)
December 29th, 2014 at 8:10 AM ^
I don't know how he feels about where we will finish with this year's class...but he is going to do whatever the hell he can to make up ground... including:
***At the moment, This is our only 2nd hand quote from Harbaugh that we can share***
I am not certain of when the Final Decision was made, but Jim Harbaugh started personally telling certain people on Christmas Day. As told to us by our source, 1-2 hours after he directly talked with Jim Harbaugh:
Jim Harbaugh plans on spending New Year's Day WORKING. One task on his Agenda is To Personally CALL all of OSU's and MSU's verbal comits while both teams ARE playing their games!
December 29th, 2014 at 8:16 AM ^
December 29th, 2014 at 8:19 AM ^
Phone calls are ok during dead period
December 29th, 2014 at 8:21 AM ^
Dead period just means no face time. Can call and text all he wants. Hackett got Harbaugh the 80,000 minute anytime plan....
December 29th, 2014 at 8:22 AM ^
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December 29th, 2014 at 8:27 AM ^
Coaches can still make phone calls to potential recruits during dead and quiet periods
Dead Period:
The college coach cannot make in-person contact with you or your legal guardians. This prevents the coach from making any evaluations of you whatsoever. However, the coach can make telephone calls to you or your legal guardians.
Quiet Period:
During this time a college coach cannot watch you compete at any location. It is allowed for the college coach to make in-person contact with you or your legal guardians if it occurs on the coach's campus. The coach can still make telephone calls to you or your legal guardians, and you can make visits to college campuses during this time.
December 29th, 2014 at 8:55 AM ^
December 29th, 2014 at 8:12 AM ^
No Iman Marshall? Dream big
December 29th, 2014 at 8:17 AM ^
I already sounded Kool Aid-y in my projection #2, but of course Clark + Marshall + a Durkin surprise in his back pocket would mean significant upside to my projections. Florida doesnt have a single 4 or 5 star so I am hoping Durkin has a surprise for us out of all the work he has done for UF.
Just trying to show with projection #1 we'll still have a very 2014ish class and I dont think projection 1 is aggressive at all. That's not bad for what is effectively going to be a 5 week sprint.
December 29th, 2014 at 8:56 AM ^
This is a seismic coaching change that is resonating with recruits throughout the country. I appreciate that #1 is a solid floor and #2 is a positive result, but #3 is a distinct possibility. I would say that a 3.8 average (without the kicker) is very possible.
December 29th, 2014 at 8:13 AM ^
and I'm too drunk with joy to worry about recruiting. Or to function at work.
December 29th, 2014 at 8:14 AM ^
If the staff ends up being what sam webb was hearing I honestly wouldnt be surprised to crack the top 25.
December 29th, 2014 at 8:23 AM ^
I could see a USC-probation type class. Small in numbers, high star rating.
They made a killing of getting 15 guys, all 4 and 5 stars.
December 29th, 2014 at 8:49 AM ^
We're too far behind the eight ball to get that kind of class. USC had recent success to hold forth as a carrot. Michigan does not. Michigan has seven years of dysfunction, except for 2011.
December 29th, 2014 at 8:16 AM ^
December 29th, 2014 at 8:21 AM ^
That's like 8 guys who have to leave or not come back.
December 29th, 2014 at 8:27 AM ^
I don't think 8, but I wouldn't be suprised with 5 or something. 2 or 3 transfer, and 1 or 2 RS Seniors are not given a 5th year.
December 29th, 2014 at 8:50 AM ^
The only fifth year guy I see not returning would be Russell Bellomy.
December 29th, 2014 at 8:56 AM ^
Edit:
I hadn't look at who would be possible RS seniors recently, and Bellomy does look like the only one that may not get a 5th year.
December 29th, 2014 at 9:13 AM ^
December 29th, 2014 at 9:41 AM ^
I agree that it's less than desirable, but Bellomy has proven that he can't play at this level. There's no point in keeping him around for a fifth year. I'm not exaggerating when I say that we have walk-on quarterbacks who are just as capable. The fact is that whether Bellomy or someone like Garrett Moores is on the field, the offense is going to be pitiful. There's no point in using a scholarship on someone like Bellomy, who has already been given four years to earn his degree.
December 29th, 2014 at 9:52 AM ^
December 29th, 2014 at 11:01 PM ^
I don't think the numbers at tight end will allow Michigan to part ways with him. He might decide to go on his way, but he got a fair amount of playing time this year and could get even more next season.
December 29th, 2014 at 8:16 AM ^
December 29th, 2014 at 8:16 AM ^
December 29th, 2014 at 8:16 AM ^
December 29th, 2014 at 8:16 AM ^
December 29th, 2014 at 8:28 AM ^
yay! yay! yay! yay! yay!
yay! yay! yay! yay! yay!
yay! yay! yay! yay! yay!
yay! yay! yay! yay! yay!
yay! yay! yay! yay! yay!
December 29th, 2014 at 8:20 AM ^
...however it doesn't include any snake oil, and I think we're due for some snake oil. Also, I admittedly haven't been following recruiting very much this year.
Alum, where would this put us? The slashes are "or"...
- QB - Alex Malzone
- Speed RB/Slot - John Kelly / LeVante Bellamy
- WR - Brian Cole
- TE - Chris Clark
- OT - Grant Newsome
- OT - Rob Dowdy / Darrin Paulo
- OG/OC - Jon Runyan Jr.
- DE - Tyrone Wheatley
- NG - Anthony Rush / ???????
- LB - Osa Masina / Anthony Wheeler
- CB - Iman Marshall
- S - Tyree Kinnel
- K - Andrew David
December 29th, 2014 at 8:25 AM ^
Give me all their Rivals star ranks and I can tell you. I see Iman on that list - thats some snake oil bro! ;)
There was another CB who was very high on us post pinic who I think was a UF committ - he surely knows Durkin so that's another guy who could swing this way. Forgot his name - that feels like a lifetime ago.
December 29th, 2014 at 8:29 AM ^
Marcus Lewis, he was high on us before the coaching change and I believe he had even visited.
December 29th, 2014 at 10:22 AM ^
Lewis dropped us, but now on the front page of Rivals he says he is interested AND the 247 crystal ball has him 50% (highest) for Michigan. Instant Harbaugh Karma!
December 29th, 2014 at 10:31 AM ^
High four star OLB Roquan Smith says he will take an official to UM if Durkin goes with Harbaugh.
December 29th, 2014 at 8:52 AM ^
I don't think we'll get Masina or Wheeler.
December 29th, 2014 at 8:26 AM ^
These rankings get so skewed in most cases. Most schools, especially all the power 5 conferences, are going to bring in the max amount of openings they have. Just because we are only going to bring in our allotment of 16 +/- we will get penalized in these overall rankings compared to a team bringing in 25+. We’ve done a great job keeping guys in the program which is setting up for a nice two deep next yr and beyond. I prefer to look at the 247 composite average player rating. That’s the best indication of the quality of player throughout your class you are getting.
December 29th, 2014 at 8:45 AM ^
Yep. Also helps when you can recruit 23-25 a year and then (cough) advise the weakest 4-7 about great junior college options after their RS SO or SO year. Rinse, wash, repeat that for 6-8 years and you've got something...
I am more concerned with average rating myself. If you dont have a class north of 22 its nearly impossible to get in the top 5 overall. Unless you pull off what USC did that 1 year
Well I am actually more concerned with what coaches do with the players in terms of development more than rankings. But within the sphere of rankings - the average is more important...
December 29th, 2014 at 8:36 AM ^
Sounds like John U. Bacon is on WTKA right now.
December 29th, 2014 at 8:38 AM ^
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December 29th, 2014 at 8:55 AM ^
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December 29th, 2014 at 8:56 AM ^
Hoke's first recruiting class was also larger than this one will be.
December 29th, 2014 at 9:19 AM ^
Agreed. For perspective Hoke's first class had 20 guys in it - six 4*, thirteen 3*, and one below 3. You are talking a class of 16 here.
That 2011 class average was 3.25 - I've shown paths to 3.5 to 3.7. And you are not going to flip a bunch of 5 stars who committed to Bama, LSU or wherever with multi year relationships.
Agree with Magnus - 2016 is where the name brand really hits. But in 5 weeks he is going to essentially match the 2014 class IMO. With some slight potential upside. (also give credit to Hoke for laying the groundwork for some of these future re-commits).
December 29th, 2014 at 9:01 AM ^
I don't believe the hiring of Harbaugh will have a huge effect on recruiting until 2016. Michigan MIGHT get a big bump this year with one, maybe two, guys. Iman Marshall would be a big-time addition and seems like a possibility. I don't really count Chris Clark, since he was already committed. Weber, Rosen, Harris, etc. have said that they're happy with where they're at in recruiting.
Ultimately, a lot of prospects are enrolling early, haven't visited Michigan, and are too far along in their recruitments to completely change streams right now. IIRC, the only player to take an official visit so far is Pat Allen, who's committed to Georgia. Obviously, lots of official visits will take place in the second half of January, but there's only so much you can do in a month or so.
December 29th, 2014 at 11:13 AM ^
December 31st, 2014 at 12:04 AM ^
It doesn't really matter, but I just don't really consider Clark a "bump" in recruiting because he basically said he would have stayed committed if Hoke remained the coach. That's holding the status quo. A bump in recruiting would include reeling in big fish that weren't going to come without Harbaugh's hiring - guys like Iman Marshall, Mike Weber, Neville Gallimore, etc. (I'm not saying they WILL come, but they're possibilities.)
December 29th, 2014 at 9:41 AM ^
Next year should be huge....I believe UM will have a lot more schollies available and JH will have made up some 'relationship' ground...
December 29th, 2014 at 10:30 AM ^
when he announces the Harbaugh hire tomorrow.