Projecting Denard
It's been an interesting topic before the season began, and even after the win. Here's how I saw things in the first game:
1. Denard is fast
2. Denard has some nice cuts
3. Denard's arm, while strong, looked like that of a HS QB that completed 45% of his passes
4. It didn't take long for the WMU defense to figure out how to stack the line against him to mitigate 1 and 2.
First game excitement certainly played a part in his hard, erratic passes and some of the more tentative decisions. Overall, he played well, and the broken play was explosive. But, the playbook was maybe 15% of what seemed opened up with Tate. The result: one play versus a couple dozen. I really think that the game made the QB situation much clearer than "1a, 1b and 2". There is a clear 1, 2 and 3, as I saw the game unfold.
I'm not dissecting the game, but trying to think more towards the future. This might be controversial, but I don't see DRob being the starting QB without some kind of (please, no) injury. But, he does need to be on the field more than a few snaps. At QB, this will be even less likely when one Devin G. arrives next year. Make no mistake, DG is the future, and he and Tate will push each other hard.
My point: I think that Denard's QB time should come to an end as this season winds down. We need him as a capable backup for this season, but he also needs to learn a position that can get him on the field as a playmaker on every down. I saw several people suggest RB, but he doesn't have the frame for that (blocking? trucking?), but I think he seems better suited for the slot or out wide. He can make corners have nightmares, and heaven help any linebacker that ends up with his assignment. I could see him very much in a Percy Harvin-ish scheme.
September 6th, 2009 at 7:55 PM ^
I'm sorry; have you looked at our QB depth chart? If Forcier goes down we are in big trouble. Even when we get Gardner and Jones on campus, they most definitely need a redshirt. Robinson will be a QB next year too. After that, we'll see where we are at and go from there.
September 6th, 2009 at 8:11 PM ^
Don't know if Gardner needs a redshirt.
September 6th, 2009 at 8:21 PM ^
I think he's enrolling early and he is rated higher than Tate or Denard were so I don't think he necessarily needs to redshirt. It would be nice if we were in a position where we don't need him though.
September 6th, 2009 at 8:29 PM ^
Don't believe he's enrolling early, actually.
September 6th, 2009 at 8:34 PM ^
He hasn't enrolled yet. Period. Until he signs a LOI lets not count chickens before they hatch.
September 6th, 2009 at 8:39 PM ^
Wait, Rivals.com has him rated higher? He HAS to be better!!!!! Too bad Tate couldn't get that elusive 5th star. He could've started all 4 years here.
September 7th, 2009 at 12:28 AM ^
It has been said that the ranking stars are based off pro potential rather than college. Just because Gardner is rated higher than Tate and Denard does not mean that he is a better QB than them right now.
Tate has been groomed to play QB his entire life. I believe he was the most ready QB for college out of all the prospects last year. He has adequate arm strength, superb accuracy and good athleticism. The only knock on Tate is his height. If he was 6'3 or 6'4 rather than a gracious 6', he would have been ranked higher and have more potential at the pro level.
Denard is a freak athlete. He is the type of player that high school coaches put at QB because he is the best playmaker. He has surprising arm strength but needs to work on his accuracy and touch. We haven't seen enough of him yet to see his ability to read defenses and go through progressions. I don't believe he will become a full time QB unless injuries happen (god forbid), but will have a set of packages put in specifically for him, whether they are at QB, RB, or WR.
Devin is a mix of both. He is ranked higher because is has the measurements that the pro's like. He's 6'4, athletic and a good passer. He needs to work on his technique though. At times, his throws come out side armed rather than over the top. He has been working on that over the summer. I believe that a red shirt is in store for him. That will allow him to conserve 1 year of eligibility while refining his technique and learning the system. He would be a RS Freshmen during Tate's Junior season and be inserted in a few packages to get him use to game speed and college level and compete for the starting job his RS Sophmore season.
September 6th, 2009 at 8:12 PM ^
That is why I cringe every time he takes off running. I almost feel like my own child is getting hit.
Forcier might be the difference between beating a team like ND and losing to a team like Indiana with one of the backups.
September 6th, 2009 at 9:14 PM ^
They look uncannily alike minus maybe the top hat and shoe tying.September 7th, 2009 at 10:36 AM ^
lol, sorry, had to do it.
September 7th, 2009 at 1:16 PM ^
I don't see it.
September 7th, 2009 at 6:35 AM ^
I am excited that Gardner is committed (he is the future), but not nearly as excited about what I saw in general on Saturday.
That day was a turning point in Michigan history that was executed by two freshmen in their first game ever in front of the largest crowd to watch a sporting event.
If the Forcier-Robinson partnership continued for four years, I would be thrilled because the fun and excitement of college football would have it's home in Ann Arbor.
September 6th, 2009 at 8:09 PM ^
I think you are making the assumption that Denard doesn't improve as a throwing qb.
September 7th, 2009 at 12:00 AM ^
He's only been on campus practicing for a month. He'll learn more and get better. Even with a limited playbook he looked pretty good.
September 7th, 2009 at 8:23 AM ^
if he didn't improve during the 8 minutes he played, clearly he will never improve ever! Didn't you pay attention to the first guy?
September 6th, 2009 at 8:11 PM ^
He may be a better fit for the slot, but I disagree with a permanent switch at this point. We have lots of recievers, and not so many quarterbacks. Also, Devin Gardner looks to be a program-altering QB, but no matter what Scout or Rivals say he is still a prospect. Keep Denard as a QB until next season, open up the competition in the offseason and see what happens. If Gardner comes in and WOW's, or if Tate shows that he is the best option, then make the switch. There is no need to do so now.
September 6th, 2009 at 8:14 PM ^
Tate had several more months and many more practices to learn the playbook and perfect the timing of pass plays than DR (due to enrolling early). Don't write Denard off so quickly.
September 6th, 2009 at 8:17 PM ^
But Forcier has been preparing for this his entire life. He was leagues ahead of Robinson in QB skills long before he enrolled.
Robinson is undoubtedly the better athlete. But Forcier is undoubtedly the better QB and I don't think that's ever going to change.
September 6th, 2009 at 8:18 PM ^
If he and Forcier can tag-team the position like Leak and Tebow did in '06, I think they'll be a sick duo. Robinson clearly needs to improve his throwing, but Forcier can run our offense until he catches up. With some polishing (moreso for DRob), both QBs will be crazy awesome.
September 6th, 2009 at 8:18 PM ^
If Denard gets comfortable in the offense and learns the playbook he is our best quarterback.
September 6th, 2009 at 8:45 PM ^
That's a pretty bold statement. How did you come to this conclusion? There are many different aspects to being a great QB beyond being fast and even having a good arm. Two of the most important aspects of being a successful QB are reading defenses and making the correct decisions under pressure and we have no idea how Denard will develop in those areas.
September 6th, 2009 at 8:59 PM ^
That's a pretty bold statement. How did you come to this conclusion?
It's no bolder than saying that Tate will always be the better QB, which is what the original post suggests. I think it's too early to tell either way, but without a doubt, Denard has some serious skill, not only as an athlete, but as a QB.
September 7th, 2009 at 3:30 PM ^
Reading defenses and making the correct decisions under pressure fall under getting comfortable in the offense if you ask me.
September 6th, 2009 at 8:23 PM ^
He actually has an arm, but the mechanics are off and more importantly the awareness is not there. He can't read defenses yet, which will obviously limit his downfield options. Short throws to slot receivers were okay though.
I would like to see him on the field with Forcier. That would be interesting and fun to watch. He can run endarounds, take direct snaps, take a pitch or a short throw. He's too explosive to be left off the field. Also, having both on the field will confuse defenses.
September 6th, 2009 at 8:26 PM ^
Denard will be a QB during his time at Michigan. That is why he came here. Rich Rod did not even scratch the surface as far as the playbook is concerned against WMU. Who knows, maybe we end up with a Mcnabb/Vick scenario. I could see this happening before seeing Shoelace being moved to slot. What do you guys think?
September 6th, 2009 at 8:27 PM ^
D Rob is a QB. He is not moving any time soon. Kid has been here 3.5 weeks and is just starting to get the plays and reads down... he was cautious in not forcing passes yesterday and with time he will get more confidence and start tossing the ball around. RR has said he will stay at QB. period.
September 7th, 2009 at 3:16 AM ^
Initially when I saw Denard fail to progress through his reads and find a receiver, I took it as a sign that he is not quite ready to be the #1 guy(which is probably largely true). However, if you look at it in the context that he made one read, and pulled it down and ran if his throw wasn't there or he thought he couldn't fit it in, then you have to say that he made really good decisions. Definitely better than the alternative of firing the ball into the hands of a waiting defender a la Sheridan. I certainly hope he continues to mature quickly. Having two QB's that can give different looks will help to keep opposing D's off balance, which will definitely be useful as the season goes on.
September 6th, 2009 at 8:32 PM ^
I think the are both awesome and we have played 1 freaking game, what is the hurry?
September 6th, 2009 at 8:34 PM ^
The guy hasn't even stratched his potential yet, he will stay at quarterback.
September 6th, 2009 at 8:34 PM ^
The only thing we know for certain about Denard is that he will continue to leave his shoelaces untied and that the media will run that story to death.
On a football front, given the spring practice advantage that Tate has had over DG, he has naturally looked more poised and aware of QB related things.
I for one however, cannot get over how fast DG is, and to me when you have an athlete such as DG, whose speed is so superior to almost anybody that he faces, you have to let him touch the ball as much as possible. He will learn the QB position with time and increased touches and the more game snaps he gets, the faster that learning curve will be IME.
I also think that the whole Tate got to play in front of ~40 thousand at the spring game definitely helped him adjust to playing in front of ~106,000 while Denard probably has never seen a crowd even a quarter of the Big House's size.
I for one cannot wait to see if this 2nd game=largest improvement thing come to fruition.
Regardless, this is a great discussion to be having as the more assets the team has the better.
September 7th, 2009 at 2:54 AM ^
Based on what we saw yesterday, Tate's ceiling is pretty damn high. He's not just some game-manager. He's got some pretty impressive QB skills. The play he made for the first TD was one a lot of polished veterans don't make. He stepped up in the pocket, had running room but saw an open wideout downfield, and calmly lofted it to him. That wouldn't have been an easy throw if he'd been in the pocket, much less in the improvised way it came out.
Forcier's ability to throw on the move is remarkable. A lot of the guys we've had - Henne, Navarre, even Brady for awhile - were never comfortable making some of the throws Tate made rolling out. That's talent. And to top it off, his decision-making was on the money. There are a lot of reads to make in this offense and he consistently made the right one.
What do we know about Denard so far? That he's very, very fast. That's about it. We know very little about his ability to throw accurately or read a defense. He may or may not turn out to be able to do those things. If being fast were all it took, we'd have just thrown a guy like Stonum in there at QB last season.
September 6th, 2009 at 9:02 PM ^
These things have a way of working themselves out.
September 7th, 2009 at 12:04 AM ^
I don't think DR's passes were horrible. Better than Sheridan's and he's been with us 1 month. Remember, Urban Meyer learned much from RR, and the two headed Leak/Tebow beast was an offshoot of RR-style creativity. RR is sickly excited, IMO, about the prospect of using two QBs all season long, and that includes an increasingly proficient DR passing. Why does everyone feel the need to have one QB? Our coach is an offensive genius. He can use both and not get into a Cooper-esque Stanley Jackson/Joe Jermaine situation. Sit back and enjoy!
September 7th, 2009 at 1:19 AM ^
Your right on Meeeechigan Dan. Let RR terrorize defenses with two qb's with two seprate skill sets all year. I think this will be a special year for our offense, can't wait to see how it plays out.
September 7th, 2009 at 12:21 AM ^
I've heard that because Devin Gardner is such a highly-touted QB, that he'll be too proud to accept a redshirt. The same people who have been telling me this are trying to say once he's on campus and capable of running the offense RichRod will bench Forcier in favor of Gardner because "Gardner is the quarterback that Rodriguez actually wants."
I don't believe it, especially the second part, although I don't think RichRod would rule out playing time for him. He's always said the best guys would play, even if it's more than one guy.
If Forcier is playing well, especially with a full year of experience, I can't see RichRod benching him even if Gardner is playing well too.
September 7th, 2009 at 12:29 AM ^
Gardner will be too proud to accept a redshirt? A polished Forcier, if he does well, would be benched in favor of a true freshman? I'd advise you to hang out with other Michigan fans, since the current ones really don't know what they're talking about.
Gardner still needs polishing and a year in our S&C program. If everything works out well, I'd like Forcier/Robinson to pilot our program for 4 years, and that would give Gardner two full years at the starter. Of course, I'm sure Gardner would get on the field during his redshirt freshman and sophomore years. For most stable, good programs, a good college QB would start 2 years. Very rare to have 3-4 year starters.
September 7th, 2009 at 10:36 AM ^
Thank you for saving me from having to rip that guy. Man, does this board NOT need these "wannabe insiders" that pepper Scout and other boards.
I can't believe Gardner comes in expecting to take over the team. In fact, in interviews I've seen (in public, on Scout)--and not from what I've heard, Gardner has said he'll play "anywhere"--including wide receiver--a position at which he is also highly regarded.
Your point about QB's generally starting for two years after being groomed is dead on. In a solid program, that's the type of rotation you want. And you recruit guys who understand that. Funny, it seemed to work under Lloyd.
September 7th, 2009 at 12:45 AM ^
I like Denard. He TD run was one of the most explosive things I've seen a Michigan player do. But, as raw as he is, I find it extremely hard to believe that he'll improve his own technique to the point where he'll be a more effective drive to drive option than Tate is right now. At least not this year.
I'd also like to talk about this myth that "passing mechanics/talent can be taught while speed can't be". That's not the way athletic talent works. No matter how much training or experience Denard recieves, he will never be as precise a QB as Tate is right now. Tate is just a more TALENTED passer. Sure he's had a ton of work on his passing skills, but so did his brothers and neither of them have ever started at a D-1 program.
You can improve your throwing technique just like you can your running technique, but the fact is, at this level, you either "have it" or you don't. If you don't "have it" the best you'll ever be is solid. Luckily for us, both of our QB's "have it", and, again luckily, they have complimentary skills. Tate can pass extremely well and is an okay runner. Denard can run like the wind and is a decent passer.
September 7th, 2009 at 12:46 AM ^
Sorry double post.
September 7th, 2009 at 12:48 AM ^
I didn't suggest DRob isn't the obvious #2 QB this year (he is). He will not overtake Tate at any point this year. Not a shot at DRob: more of an acknowledgment that the gap Tate has is significant.
I have to believe that Devin G. is going to be playing as a freshman. You don't redshirt his kind of elite talent at a position of need. IF he enrolls early, even more so.
Based on the current gap (my opinion) between #1 and #2, I see DRob potentially becoming better at decisions, more comfortable in the O, and developing better touch, but to imagine him somehow resembling anything like Tate in 12 weeks just can't make sense to anyone, can it?
My prediction: he will become a more solid #2 QB by the end of the year, but we will see him on the field much more than that can provide. M needs him on the field more.
September 7th, 2009 at 12:50 AM ^
... 3 QB's that RichRod can rotate in and out or play two at a time?
We haven't seen Denard's ceiling yet, but at the same time we haven't seen Tate's ceiling either. Remember, both are TRUE FRESHMEN. I'm just glad that Gardner made the decision to come to Michigan knowing that these two kids will be around. It shows his competitive spirit, which he will need if he's going to try to unseat Denard/Tate.
September 7th, 2009 at 1:25 AM ^
I see Denard as a "slash" kind of player. I think they will keep him at QB, but also run some slot plays for him to get him on the field more. I still think there is a lot of potential for option passes off of screens or handoffs.
I agree wholeheartedly with the commenter who said that Denard didn't force passes. To me, that means that, even though he may not have seen a few open recievers and taken off with the ball too early, he had more restraint than the "experienced" Sheridan did.
I am guessing that it may take awhile for the passing game to "slow down" for Denard like the running game already does.
September 7th, 2009 at 1:29 AM ^
I like it that the media is focusing on "Shoelaces;" whenever they do, it means they are writing or saying something positive about UM instead of something negative. In a player who doesn't tie his shoes but is faster than everyone else on the field, they have found another "man bites dog" story to replace the "decline of UM" story.
And here's to you, Mr Robinson....
September 7th, 2009 at 1:40 AM ^
It's been said already, but I want to see DRob put in as the S-back, and take some direct snaps. It's like a double, double threat. Death butterfly approves.
September 7th, 2009 at 3:48 AM ^
Why?
(1) Denard has been learning the Michigan system for all of about a month. Who really knows how good he can be? He might end up better than Tate if given a chance.
(2) We will always need 2-3 good quarterbacks under the RR system (in fact, under any system). Did you see us last year? Did you see WVU every time Pat White was injured? Can you imagine what OSU will look like if Terrelle Pryor goes down even for a few weeks? Denard should learn the QB position and play both that position and some special sets at slot or RB alongside Tate. If Gardner comes in next year and is a quick learner, maybe then look at whether to keep Denard in the mix as a QB.
September 7th, 2009 at 9:12 AM ^
I love Denard and his speed but Tate should take 90%+ of the snaps against ND.
September 7th, 2009 at 9:48 AM ^
Why is everyone so anxious to move him to SR or RB? He is a QB, will remain a QB. Good grief, he is a FRESHMAN! I hope he turns out to be better than Pat White so that some of you will eat your words.
Sigh. Settle down people.
September 7th, 2009 at 10:31 AM ^
He has been with the team for 3.5 weeks, he couldn't possibly know enough of the playbook to be completely effective, let alone seeing and reading defenses, receiver progressions, or have timing with receivers, etc. They would teach him the run plays first, with a few basic pass plays mixed in.
No doubt they told him 'show pass, if there is not an easy receiver at the beginning of your progression, tuck and run..'. The show pass is only to open it up for him to scramble. He had to throw it a couple of times, but those were likely set up last week as receiver 1 in your progression will be here, throw it there and don't wait and just be sure it is not an INT.
Seriously, he has a lot of promise, but 3.5 weeks is a very short time to expect a player to be able to command a complex offense.
September 7th, 2009 at 4:47 PM ^
I don't think anyone in this thread is dogging the kid. But there is some question about whether QB is the best position for him and moreover, whether it's worth it in the long run for him to remain as a QB given that Tate is obviously very good and that Devin Gardner shows a lot of promise. Obviously, he'll remain at QB for the rest of this season and probably next year as well, but his snaps at QB might always be limited. There is a non-trivial chance that down the road (in 2010 or beyond), Denard will end up being only our third-best QB. In that case, would you still want him to remain at QB, where he'll be on the bench? Or would you want to see the coaches find a way to get his incredible speed on the field?