Projected Playoff Standings Update
Hello night owls, Jerry Alum Palm here. As I have been doing the past 2 weeks let's do the projected playoff updates with all games in other than Oregon v Utah (Oregon up about 20 late).
The question last week was how far would Ole Miss fall with their 2nd loss - it would tell us a lot about how the committee views the SEC West. I had projected #10... it ended up being #11. Not a bad guess. More surprisingly was how far up they moved ASU which I was happy to see as their quality of wins was better than quite a few teams they were behind at the time; the Utah victory was seen as a confirmation and they popped up 5 spots. That should have implications for a similar move for OSU this week.
Key results this week
- Auburn self implodes twice late and loses at home to a mediocre A&M team
- Bama beats a hard luck and rapidly improving LSU team
- MSU was (worse than) what we thought they were
- OSU had a JT Barrett coming out party - however their entire schedule will have 1 quality win (MSU) with no crossover (Wiscy/Neb) of value and UM/PSU sh*tshows.
- ASU exposed ND and put a win on the resume even the East Coast folk will respect
- TCU decimated KSU for the first 80% of the game, and won going away
- Oregon beat Utah at a tough place to play (see Stanford v Utah 2013)
- Baylor crushed Oklahoma putting Baylor in direct competition with OSU for teams with awful non conf schedules but 1 loss (Baylor has more quality wins and their loss was to a better team)
- Michigan won in dominating fashion in one the most exciting games of the yaer but I am keeping them at 26 for the third week in a row.
Question of the week - does TCU pass Alabama for the 4th slot??
I am going to be controversial and say yes. TCU has beaten Oklahoma, KSU, West Virginia, OK State, Minnesota as best wins. Alabama has beaten LSU, West Virginia, Florida, A&M, Arkansas as best wins. TCU beat a higher ranked opponent this week thus adding to their resume more this week (the committee says they take each week independently) Both have quality losses. We'll see if the committee agrees. TCU is out of quality wins the rest of the year while Bama has potential for more and re-pass TCU. If this was an AP poll they'd just move everyone up a slot and not push TCU ahead of Bama. I hope the committe is more rigorous.
Projection
- (1) Miss State 8-0
- (2) FSU 9-0
- (4) Oregon 9-1
- (6) TCU 8-1
- (5) Alabama 8-1
- (9) Arizona State 8-1
- (12) Baylor 8-1
- (14) OSU 8-1
- (11) Ole Miss 8-2
- (13) Nebraska 8-1
- (3) Auburn 7-2
- (7) Kansas State 7-2
- (8) MSU 7-2
- (10) ND 7-2
- (18) UCLA 7-2
- (20) Georgia 7-2
- (19) Arizona 7-2
- (21) Clemson 7-2
- (16) LSU 7-3
- (22) Duke 8-1
- (25) Wisconsin 7-2
- (24) Georgia Tech 6-2
- (UR) Missouri 7-2
- (15) Oklahoma 6-3
- (17) Utah 6-3
- (UR) Michigan 5-5
November 9th, 2014 at 7:35 AM ^
November 9th, 2014 at 7:54 AM ^
One game? He's been doing it all year and if finally cut up to them.
November 9th, 2014 at 7:57 AM ^
November 9th, 2014 at 2:09 AM ^
I'd flip Baylor and ASU, but otherwise agree with the important spots.
November 9th, 2014 at 2:24 AM ^
I am going off how the committee viewed them last week and added the results of this week.
Hence ASU was #9 and smoked #10 ND (yes they gave up the ghost but reaccelerated late).
Contrast with Baylor at #12 who smoked #15 Oklahoma.
So both teams had pretty convincing wins - Baylor started 3 spots behind ASU, and ASU beat a higher ranked team.
Same logic for my TCU jump. #6 TCU beat #7 KSU, very convincingly (at home). #5 Bama needed OT to beat #16 LSU (on the road). While road victories should count more than home victories, TCU beat a better team and in much more convincing fashion.
This would also allow the committee to look fair and have Alabama "earn" its way back into the playoff with a win vs Auburn or Miss State. At which point they'd pass TCU who is out of wins to make the committee take notice.
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That's my story and I am sticking to it. But what intrigues is if Bama beats Miss State on Nov 15th, and then beats Auburn they go 11-1. That would be enough to pass TCU easily on Nov 15th. So Miss State loses to Bama, falling from #1 to #???... then beats Ole Miss ...thats 11-1. Then it would be Miss State vs TCU for that last spot IMO. Would the Ole Miss win push them back to slot #4 if they were say #6 after losing to Bama?
That is where the controversay would be - does 11-1 TCU (conf champion) get in over 11-1 MSU (non conf champion, only loss to a playoff team). I hope that happens to see how it works out. I think TCU advances due to being a conference champion and 11-1 Miss State is out per how they told us conf championships matter.
This assumes FSU wins out and the Oregon / ASU Pac 12 championship game winner (two 1 loss teams facing off) gets the other spot.
November 9th, 2014 at 2:30 AM ^
And here is where it gets fun. In my scenario above where TCU might be in playoff position #4... they are NOT conference champion at 11-1 if Baylor wins out. Baylor won head to head. So neither 11-1 Miss State NOR 11-1 TCU would be a conference champion if Baylor wins out. Than you can make a case Miss State gets into the 4th slot over TCU based on "SEC West" (SOS!). TCU's only non conf win of merit is Minnesota. Miss State has nothing non conf.
But committee sends a message it is better to play ANYONE non conf of value (Minnesota) vs no one. And TCU advances.....due to a 30-7 win over a Big 10 midweight.
Boom! Big 10 relevancy!
November 9th, 2014 at 7:56 AM ^
Miss St. should be penalized like Baylor for there absolutely awful non conference schedule. They also played Kentucky and Vandy from the SEC east.
November 9th, 2014 at 11:01 AM ^
November 9th, 2014 at 11:00 AM ^
November 9th, 2014 at 7:41 PM ^
If both teams have 1 conference loss and TCU lost to Baylor how would they become Big 12 champion over Baylor?
November 9th, 2014 at 11:08 AM ^
Justification makes sense, but ND is not a good team. Being propped up by losing a close game to also not a very good team, but one you can't really drop until they lose a game.
November 9th, 2014 at 2:11 AM ^
26. Michigan
So theres a chance
November 9th, 2014 at 3:50 AM ^
Sparty didn't turn out to be worse than I thought they were. I have seen them as overrated all along. AFAIC, OSU and Nebraska are the only teams in the Big Ten that have the athletes to match up with bona fide playoff contenders right now.
Sparty is good, but not nearly as good as the media have been leading people to believe.
November 9th, 2014 at 4:10 AM ^
November 9th, 2014 at 6:31 AM ^
November 9th, 2014 at 7:06 AM ^
November 9th, 2014 at 7:37 AM ^
November 9th, 2014 at 7:50 AM ^
and sadly we are losers... so, when in Rome.
November 9th, 2014 at 7:49 AM ^
If I had to guess, it would probably be the same guess, so no argument from me on this. ESPN's simulator should update once the polls come out, so it will be interesting to compare this to their theory as well.
Actually, the top four you project - Mississippi State, FSU, Oregon and TCU - are 7th, 14th, 8th and 5th in Sagarin respectively. Alabama is still #1 in his model and Ohio State is three spots higher than FSU, going to show that polls and models would perhaps never capture certain aspects of the decision-making here.
November 9th, 2014 at 8:08 AM ^
CBS Sports' Jerry Palm's Updated Bowl Projections - BIG TEN TEAMS IN ITALICIZED CAPS
November 9th, 2014 at 8:41 AM ^
Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin basically are all going to play each other in the closing 3 weeks here so I think the West is all going to get muddled. My gut tells me Wisconsin is going to come out of that side as the champion and displace Nebraska who right now has an OSU like schedule - they have an ok Miami FL as their major win and after that it goes to like Rutgers as their 2nd best win. Still unproven. At least Wiscy played LSU. And they seem to be peaking now. Iowa and Minnesota are boggling from week to week.
But overall those are some attractive bowl matchups iff they come out that way for OSU, MSU, and Neb.
Marshall would get destroyed in a bowl vs these type of teams - doesnt make sense to me but maybe it some contractual thing.
November 9th, 2014 at 11:27 AM ^
November 9th, 2014 at 8:30 PM ^
one of the NY6 Bowls is required to take an L5 team, so Marshall as the best one will get the call most likely.
November 9th, 2014 at 9:01 AM ^
looking ahead, there is great potential for the schedule to clear things up.
My thoughts:
#1 Mississippi State drops 2 to Bama and Ole Miss (tough spot for them, never having been here and playing on the road)
#2 FSU wins out and is in (Miami might hang around for a bit Saturday night, and Florida seems to have found something perhaps though)
#3 Oregon wins out and is in (not sure how PAC 12 tie breaker works, but they would have to face either Arizona State, Arizona, or USC)
#5 Bama wins out and is in (I think they beat Mississippi State in a good game, and you just know Saban has been game planning for Malzahn's Auburn for the past year)
The final spot is interesting. I believe Arizona State loses at Arizona, dropping out of the race. The last spot could boil down to TCU and Baylor. I have seen the talk of the non-con schedule. But, does the committeee approach it as "TCU is in, they beat Minnesota, and their only loss came in a road game in which they had a 21 point 4th quarter lead"...or is more like "Baylor is in, they won the conference, beat TCU head to head, and TCU BLEW A 21 POINT 4TH QUARTER LEAD."
November 9th, 2014 at 9:47 AM ^
Pac 12 has a championship game so Oregon will play winner of the south. So if ASU gets thru the next few weeks unscathed that is going to be a play in game for the playoff for the Pac 12. Its going to be either Zona or ASU, if Zona wins head to head v ASU and doesnt drop anymore it will be a rematch of the Oregon loss!
FSU confuses me - they dont seem as good as last year. But they seem to coast in every game and then do enough in the 2nd half to win. Miami is not that great but has a pretty tremendus RB and Florida if they can run like they did vs GA could be a real threat. They actually have a decent defense and they put up 400 yards rushing on D. And its a rivalry game... we'll see. I dont think FSU coast is clear.
I think based on the ratings you can already see they are giving credit to TCU (and KSU earlier) over Baylor. They are now going to be forced to push Baylor up from low teens to single digits only because so many other 1 loss teams dropped out. But when they all had 1 loss they had a clear pecking order 1A/1B TCU/KSU and 2 Baylor. Which is sort of funny because if Baylor had only scheduled say Syracuse in OOC (a junky team) and beat them by the normal 30 they'd be ahead of TCU due to head to head.
November 9th, 2014 at 10:03 AM ^
tie breakers, if there is a 3 way tie (which could happen between Arizona, Arizona State, and UCLA/USC...the points below relate to USC beating UCLA and Arizona beating ASU)
the first tie breaker is head to head amongst the 3 teams, and each would be 1-1
the second tie breaker is divisional record, and each would be 7-2
the third tie breaker is record against the next best divisional opponent (UCLA...and USC would have beat them, putting them in the conference championship).
Would beating a 3 or 4 loss (giving them L #4 or 5) USC team hurt Oregon???
November 9th, 2014 at 10:11 AM ^
If Oregon wins out they are in. Won't matter who wins the Pac12 south.
November 9th, 2014 at 9:17 AM ^
I say there's almost a 0% chance Miss State makes it to the playoff. They still have to play Bama, Ole Miss, and a theoretical SEC championship game. I bet they lose at least 2 of those 3 games
November 9th, 2014 at 9:50 AM ^
But keep in mind Ole Miss is challenged offensively and lost their best offensive player in Treadwell due to that horrible injury. They would have to play a tremendous game on defense to beat Miss State.
It will be interesting to see who comes out of the SEC East. Florida is still a possibility. I hope its Georgia or Florida as Missouri feels like a hoax (Georgia beat Missouri 34-0).
November 9th, 2014 at 10:17 AM ^
you cannot really control who you play in the conference title game.
But if there are some upsets in the conference championship games, it will be complete chaos to determine who goes to the playoff.
November 9th, 2014 at 8:35 PM ^
the interesting thing would be if MsSU lost to Bama and Bama lost to Auburn, sending a one loss MsSU to the SEC title game as the only viable SEC team left in playoff contention and then they lost to Georgia/Mizzou. That would create chaos and potentially lead to a two loss SEC west team without a conference title making it over one loss B1G Champion Ohio State/Nebraska.
November 9th, 2014 at 9:33 AM ^
getting the shaft. Not that I'm complaining.
November 9th, 2014 at 10:02 AM ^
2) Michigan is sadly so far away. Watching a team like TCU pound KSU was a real eye opener. Both of those teams would beat the shit out of UM.
November 9th, 2014 at 10:16 AM ^
November 9th, 2014 at 10:17 AM ^
The only trivial quibble I'd have is that I wonder if Marshall doesn't show up at the bottom, replacing either Oklahoma (my preference) or Utah.
November 9th, 2014 at 8:37 PM ^
I would have Colo State as #25 over Marshall. Not that Colo State is playing great shakes bu with 1 loss they at least play in a somewhat competitive conference. Someone listed Marshall's opponents winning % above and its staggeringly bad. I did actually have Colo State as #25 last week but the committee did not agree with me. ;)