Predictions Revisited
I usually find PTI pretty entertaining. The one thing that I wish they would do and talk radio hosts would do is revisit predictions they made to see how bad or good they were. I think that is much more interesting than just saying "oh we'll win the NC in 2013" because everyone will forget it. MGoblog has a search function and a database of your old posts. So if you were spot on with something come in and brag and if you were way off be man enough to show your face. I'll start.
Bad
1. RR will win the Big Ten in 2011-Tough to do when you are not even here. I did win my over 7 wins bet though.
2. Shaw will be a Heisman finalist in his senior year-The promise of the 08 Minnesota game didn't quite materialize. Off just a tad.
3. Come on Denard is not going to start for Tate you are out of your mind.
Good
http://mgoblog.com/diaries/john-navarre-why-he-makes-me-want-fight-internet
While I know most of you disagree with the basis for this argument it did turn out to be prophetic. Here's the end of my post from back in January.
I will cringe when the MSM and its followers point to how Michigan is back to playing defense and getting tougher on that side of the ball when in reality the majority of the improvement will come from the players themselves and not some made up mantra about toughness.
So please stop with the defense sucks our only hope is Yoda Mattison. Mattison is an experienced guy that has seen it all he is going to field a strong defense this year once he figures out what he has. You see it happen so often I'm shocked people have so little faith. MSU was in much the same spot as we were last year and they improved greatly on defense, Ironically SDSU almost mirrored MSU's defensive stats from 09 to 10. Think back to guys like Stonum and Odoms when they were freshmen and now look at what they have become. There are so many examples of guys like John Navarre, because it is more the rule than the exception.
Lastly I want to leave you with Nick Fairley who is currently the odds on favorite to be the #1 pick in the NFL draft now that Luck has gone back to school. He steamrolled his way through defenses this year. Last year he started 2 games and was pretty much a bust coming from the JUCO ranks. You never know so give it some time. I feel like Ben Crenshaw at The 99 Ryder Cup. I got a good feeling about this. It is going to get me ill hearing the stories, but I think Greg Mattison is going to be the next flavor of the month for what he does with this defense and be labeled a genius by the end of next November.
December 6th, 2011 at 1:05 PM ^
I made the "I want to believe" photoshop of Toussaint before the season started.
December 6th, 2011 at 1:08 PM ^
post it again!
December 6th, 2011 at 1:09 PM ^
Back when Hoke was hired, I predicted that he would turn the tide on the rivalry against tSIO, and that the first indication of this would be an increase in jersey sales in Ohio.
December 6th, 2011 at 2:28 PM ^
This won the thread
December 6th, 2011 at 1:12 PM ^
And 8-4 for ND. Everyone laughed at me....now who's laughing?!?!
December 6th, 2011 at 1:48 PM ^
Good ones you have to link or no one will believe you.
December 6th, 2011 at 3:35 PM ^
ND 8-5
Link? Link!
"We have to assume that ND's record will be worse than preseason predictions and hype. They are ALWAYS overrated. With games at Standford, Michigan and Pitt, and at least 5 others that coud go either way, I think 8-5 is a safe bet." - from 08/04/2011
December 6th, 2011 at 1:14 PM ^
<quote> 2. Shaw will be a Heisman finalist in his senior year-The promise of the 08 Minnesota game didn't quite materialize. Off just a tad. </quote>
Thinking that a good performance against Minnesota portends great things always leads to disappointment.
December 6th, 2011 at 1:14 PM ^
....predicted 9-3 for Michigan. I could not be more pleased to be incorrect in this case.
December 6th, 2011 at 5:09 PM ^
i figured 8-4, with possibly 7-6 for us. never in my wildest did i expect the BiG to blow this much this year, and for Mattison to improve the D 100 spots. i'm very pleased my predictions were errant as well. to that end, next year is rugged with so many tough away games, but i'm done making predictions for a while after this year.
December 6th, 2011 at 1:19 PM ^
I had no bold predictions for the season, but I had one hope for the season. Living in Ohio, I have been waiting to see UM beat OSU since I witnessed it in the stands @ the 100th THE GAME in 2003. . This year was the year; It is still a surreal Psalm 126-like experience.
When Tate & Denard came on the scene, I knew that we had A NEW HOPE.
If only we could get a photoshopped Star Wars Episode 4 poster (with Denard's face in place of Luke's, Hoke's in place of Obi's, Martin's in place of Han, and Ryan Van Bergen's in place of Chewebacca).
December 6th, 2011 at 1:25 PM ^
Love those Songs of Ascent. Hopefully the team keeps going up with a win over Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl!
December 7th, 2011 at 10:43 AM ^
& I laughed hysterically when I read it. I was still holding out for a NEW HOKE movie poster.
December 6th, 2011 at 1:21 PM ^
I predicted a 13-0 season and an invite to the NC game. So far Hoke has been a disappointment to me.
/s
December 6th, 2011 at 1:24 PM ^
I predicted I'd spend most of the season shitfaced, and I did.
December 6th, 2011 at 1:30 PM ^
I want to go back to the beginning of the season and set the O/U for Mike Cox carries at 1. I think I could have made a few billion dollars just from Magnus alone.
December 6th, 2011 at 1:58 PM ^
Hey, I'm just glad SOMEONE was able to take the "feature back" role away from Vincent Smith. I really didn't care who it was, as long as it was someone who could consistently gain yards after contact.
Enter Fitzgerald Toussaint.
Hallelujah!
December 6th, 2011 at 1:40 PM ^
though at the time it was Ohio State. I was a little off on the games though, I thought we'd drop two to Notre Dame and Nebraska, not MSU and Iowa.
December 6th, 2011 at 1:44 PM ^
Most graciously I predicted 9-3 with a hat-tip to match The Knowledge's prediction if we'd beaten back Sparty.
What was I correct on? Pryor to the Raiders! Called that one early...
Prediction for 2012:Denard will win the Heisman.
December 6th, 2011 at 1:44 PM ^
The Correct-
Touissaint is our best running back and will be the starter eventually.
Our team would be much better than last year regardless of the coach. The players coming back alone are good for another win and the schedule makes it one more.
Troy Woolfolk should play safety
We will beat OSU.
The Incorrect
9-3 (or 8-4 if we lose to ND).
Thought we had no chance against Nebraska
Devin will throw a pass to Denard
December 6th, 2011 at 1:54 PM ^
I was promised a cold, refreshing, domestic libation when this team won ten games. It has yet to arrive.
#CALLEDOUTONTHEMGOBOARDYO!!!!
December 6th, 2011 at 1:57 PM ^
Filling the NFL draft board, I still want to buy you one.
Heck, make it to New Orleans, and I'll do it anyway.
December 6th, 2011 at 1:55 PM ^
Has to turn into a faux humblebrag. I see nowhere you predicted a hundred rank improvement in some categories...and you said it would all happen because of player development. Because predicting a defense that can't really fall in the rankings that much more will be better is just statistical probability, not prognostication.
To the actual worthwhile point, I was wrong about 8-4 (with 9-3 as my "if we beat ND" swing game). Thought we'd split with Iowa and MSU (lost to both), but lose the two end games. The implosion of one, and our performance vs. the other was a surprise.
(Though I always liked Fitz...but I'm not sure how much of that was based on NCAA '11, so I won't take credit for that).
Right? I vaguely remember telling a lot of people not to panic when Hoke got the job....
December 6th, 2011 at 2:07 PM ^
I already had the post where I said what I thought were the factors for this years success and know that you guys don't agree. Which I clearly stated in this post. I said that his defense would have a huge turnaround and Mattison would be considered a genius by the end of November, not exactly the general consensus.
It's just a fun topic.
December 6th, 2011 at 2:41 PM ^
There has to be some brag and fun poking to go with the topic. It seemed repetitive, so I took it more seriously than it deserved, rather than in fun. It's ok.
December 6th, 2011 at 1:57 PM ^
Come on , I know there were a few guys who thought we were not going to make a bowl this year. Fess Up. Where's this guy? Soo Close.
First TD: Cox runs 38
First TD: Cox runs 38 yards
First sack: BWC 6 yards
I'd link my Will Campbell is going to be a disappointment after the AA game post, but it melted the internet after we spiraled into Hitler comments on the thread.road.
December 6th, 2011 at 2:00 PM ^
Correct
Expected the defense to improve to middle-of-the-pack simply because of maturation, and figured that Mattison couldn't hurt more than GERG.
Throught the season, always expected Denard to play the bulk of the QB time and didn't think he would be hurt as much because he wouldn't run as many times.
Figured a RB would emerge, but my money was on Smith returning from injury. Kind of right, but not really.
Expected Borges to drop the MANBALL offense elements early on, then modify playing style to maximize the talent on the field.
Wrong
Thought Roundtree would be one of the 2-3 best WRs in the conference.
Expected a win over Sparty. Did think the team was going to beat Ohio, though.
9-3 was the ceiling for this squad. Obviously off by one, but in a good way. Did not think Nebraska would be as vulnerable down the stretch.
December 6th, 2011 at 2:12 PM ^
Didn't Denard have same carries this year?
December 6th, 2011 at 2:06 PM ^
I predicted we would finish 10-2, Hoke would be up for COY awards, the defense would finish around 18th, we would beat the Buckeyes and we would play in the Sugar Bowl vs Virginia Tech.
December 6th, 2011 at 2:13 PM ^
YOU ARE T-H-E-E KNOWLEGE?
December 6th, 2011 at 2:14 PM ^
This one is a festival of FAIL. A carnival of comeuppance for the assclowns who supply content to for Detroit's best kitty litter/charcoal igniter.
Rosenberg (remember he's the smart one): 7-5; losses to Notre Dame, and at Northwestern, at Michigan State, at Iowa and versus Nebraska before a win over Ohio State.
But then there's...
Sharp; 6-6 ("And that's an overly optimistic prediction," he says.) He predicted Ohio State as Big Ten champion.
Sipple; 6-6.
Snyder; 7-5, with a 'stolen' win at Iowa. Nabraska was his pick for the conference title.
The over/under for this article for negative references to the "past three years"/Rich Rodriguez was 3, and I think the Freep boys hit their number exactly. (You be the judge.)
Rich Rodriguez, by the way; "9 or 10 wins," based on numbers of returning starters. (Per CBS video - no link available.)
December 6th, 2011 at 2:16 PM ^
That read was full of Freep Schaudenfreude for me.
December 6th, 2011 at 2:27 PM ^
Who Drew Sharp is:
"Opposing defenses learned how to contain Denard last season" according to the article written by Sharp.
Then there was this fantastic board post:
http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/denards-dropoff-production
Which has conveniently been deleted due to its baseless conclusion, but the general premise was "Denard has been figured out and will be nothing more than a 50% completion rate running gimmick against Minnesota and EMU, but is useless in big games".
hmmmmm....
That post is a really fun read. It's nice to see how much everyone gave up on our QB before the final three games of the season.
December 6th, 2011 at 2:41 PM ^
I love how he edited it all out and just said
"None of this matters anymore"
Not quite an apology, but we get the gist......I was fool to doubt the powers of Denard's force please show mercy on my soul.
December 6th, 2011 at 2:47 PM ^
It was supposed to be predictions YOU were wrong or right about; not somebody else.
December 6th, 2011 at 3:07 PM ^
You are right, but if guys won't own up to epic fails it's still fun if someone else points it out.
Rules amended.
December 6th, 2011 at 3:38 PM ^
If you can't stand up and point out your own.
At least you did both.
December 6th, 2011 at 3:23 PM ^
...and neither do I.
December 6th, 2011 at 3:19 PM ^
Yes, because he had no reason to inflate our expected win total.. Let's think for a minute.. If he states we will win a more moderate number of games (8, just to be fair), then his replacement is considered an enormous success because he even beat his predecessor's expectations. If he gives a much less attainable number, one that was considered highly unlikely, then he can always say "see, I would have won 9 or 10 with that team."
Any predictions he claims to have had for this team should be taken with a grain of salt.
December 6th, 2011 at 7:19 PM ^
But not mention are the redshirt frosh that made a big difference too.
December 6th, 2011 at 2:15 PM ^
tough to hit. Happy to be wrong!
December 6th, 2011 at 2:37 PM ^
Loved me some Toussant for a longggg time!
Sucks not being in AA anymore
December 6th, 2011 at 2:46 PM ^
1. We would go 7-5 (same thing that I prdicted for 2010).
2. The defense would be significantly better while the offense would not be as good as prior year (I know, pure genius on my part).
3. Toussaint would emerge as the feature back (or was it Hopkins?).
4. Denard would have fewer rushing yards, but would be even more dangerous running on passing plays (ala T. Pryor).
5. MSU was overated.
December 6th, 2011 at 2:54 PM ^
but I don't remember for sure and thought that Craig Roh would have a "breakout season." I also thought the defense would be markedly better. I did think Carvin Johnson would be playing FS--not quite. I predicted that Fitz would be the starter in 2010, not 2011 though. I had assumed he was becoming a China doll, but I am extremely happy to be proven wrong.
On a side note, I was unsure of what kind of a coach Brady Hoke would be as, like a lot of people, I really only had his hold won/loss records to go on. I've been impressed by his aggressive decision making, calmness on the field, "teaching" qualities that you often hear about him and his willingness to let his coordinators do their job and not be a micro-manager.
December 6th, 2011 at 2:59 PM ^
Correct: everything
Incorrect: nothing
I win.
December 6th, 2011 at 3:06 PM ^
The correct:
- 10-2 record
- Iowa loss
- Not winning division
- Fickell would not coach beyond 1 year
- Bubba Starling would not play football for Nebraska and would decide at the last minute to sign with the Royals
- OSU would vacate all games from 2010
The misses:
- Thought other loss would be to Nebraska,
- And thought that would cause us to lose a tie-breaker with Nebraska for the division.
Somewhere in the middle:
- Northwestern gets 8 wins with healthy Persa, less than 6 if he's not healthy.
December 6th, 2011 at 3:30 PM ^
I was cautiously optimistic by saying 8-4 (MAYBE 9-3) based on the amount of starters we had coming back.
Realistically we were what 10 points? from being undefeated, this coaching transistion if what I envisioned RR's to be like.
December 6th, 2011 at 3:53 PM ^
I am one of those optimists that even UM fans roll their eyes at when I give my season predictions.... but his year I undervaluated!!!!!!
I had 9-3 with losses to ND, @MSU, and Nebraska
Wisconsin over Nebraska (1/2 right)
Iowa would struggle on offense and finish 7-5 (but, I thought we would beat them)
Minnesota and IU would be putrid (100% correct)
Purdue would be 5-7 (one OSU mistake from being right)
Illinois would miss a bowl (so close)
Ohio State would be 9-3 (I'm glad I was wrong on this one!)
MSU 8-4
N'Western 8-4 (and beat Army and Sparty)
And Florida State in the BCS; Stanford @8-4; Washington competing for Pac 10
December 6th, 2011 at 4:35 PM ^
us as 8-4, maybe 9-3. I had losses to Nebraska and ohio. I had us losing to Iowa and my swing loss was Illinois. 50% success.
I had Barnett as the freshman with the most impact on offense. I had Blake as the freshman with the most impact on defense. Again 50%
I had us in a New Years Day Bowl or better. Correct
I had us #2 in the Legends Divison Correct
I had us beating lil' bro. wrong
I had the UTL as NCAA Record. Correct
I had me getting lucky by taking Mrs. MGoSoftball to Chicago for the NW game: WAY WRONG
Overall I was 50%