"Guess the Score" thread.
"Guess the Score" thread.
It's completely buried in the site by now. It should have its own link since it's an official MGoBlog contest.
Francis. Lighten up.
GR3 gets going again and Stauskas hits 4 three pointers. Michigan wins 65 - 60.
thing needs to happen moreso than the Stauskus thing. Good grief that man has disappeared recently. At least Nik does some handling/distributing. GRIII just stands in the corner and watches.
He is a freshman, he will come around, and yayada, but I see him becoming more and more frustrated with the nature of the offense. This is not a critcism of JB, his offense is what it is but I see it being a hard offense for a wing with Robinson's skill set to get used to. At least 3 times a game, Robinson needs to get the ball free throw line extended on a wing with a clear out. Robinson could make somethings happen if given time and space, and we desperately need a player that can command a double team or at least make defenders have to sag. All of our perimter shots are coming after about 7 high screens and are still contested or off an elaborate series of screens desigend to get a good shot off. I think GRIII is the answer to a little inside outside and I hope that the coaching staff goes out of their way to get him involved.
It all goes back to GRIII skill in dribbling the ball with defensive pressure on him. He isn't confident enough yet to do it. The top Big 10 teams do this well. Something like THJ had to work on and did get better at. I look for major important next year.
but at this point, I have to say that I think GR III trying to impact the game and failing is better than him doing nothing. I know these are pressure cookers that he is playing in, but the big boy pants have to go on soon enough. He simply cannot be invisible on the floor or they should go with two bigs and limit his minutes. I am not hating on him, he is going to be a very good player, but we simply need something from the position and he has been flat out invisible for the last month.
Michigan GUARDS THE GLABDANGED INBOUNDER.
Michigan 73 state 68
Michigan wins 90 - 42 and Tom Izzo turns more purple than Brian Kelly.
MSU. We're still too young to get over the hump on the road in a very hostile environment against a good team, as the struggles of Robinson and Stauskas @ OSU, IU and Wisconsin show. As is always the case, the calls will favor the home team, and Morgan is not 100%, if he even plays.
Everyone likes to paint pictures of roses and rainbows in these prediction threads but we are 0-3 in tough road environments this year.
Our tendancy to not foul seems to be hurting us, as ridiculous as that sounds. The B1G refs appear to be making a conscious effort to keep the fouls even or, in away games, in favor of the home team.
The refs will probably let this game be physical, which doesn't really bode well for Michigan.
I don't see Michigan coming out with a victory.
Unfortunately, I agree with both of you.
Indiana and OSU both lost at Illinois and we beat Illionois by 14. MSU lost at Minnesota and we won there. OSU doesn't visit Minnesota and Indiana and Wisconsin still have to. Saying we are 0-3 in tough road environments is not correct.
Illinois is a train wreck. Northwestern also beat them at home. They sit behind Purdue in the B1G standings. They certainly aren't consistent enough to put too much stock in that victory at this point.
And Minnesota? They are a respectable team, but I wouldn't necessarily call Williams Arena a tough road environment. Michigan is 6-1 in their last 7 trips there.
So you're either asserting that OSU, IU, and Wisconsin are not tough road environments, or you're asserting that Illinois and Minnesota are at the same level of tough road environments that OSU, IU, and Wisconsin are.
Wait, that's not true. What if he thinks that all five of those places are tough road environments, even if OSU, IU, and Wisconsin are a little tougher than the other two? In fact, isn't that a totally reasonable belief?
You could probably say that we're 0-3 in our toughest three road games, but winning at Illinois and Minnesota - and doing so comfortably - is something. Those are "tough road environments."
I did not say at the same level, but Indiana and OSU (who Illinois beat by 19) showed Illinois isn't an easy place to play. Wisconsin, OSU , and Indiana were the 3 toughest road games, but they were not by any means the only tough road games.The Big10 has 7 teams that are basically tournament locks. Michigan is 2-3 against them, 3-2 without a fluke shot at the buzzer. Illinois is no train wreck. They have wins over the #1 team, @ #5, #11 on a neutral court, and Minnesota.
to Northwestern at home and @ Purdue, putting them behind Purdue in the B1G standings.
Regardless, you are arguing two different things. Illinois and Minnesota are respectable teams, but their arenas are not hostile environments to play in.
I bet Indiana and OSU consider Illinois a tough place to play. How tough a road environment also depends on how good the opponent is. For instance Miami is not someone who has an arena that is tough to play in, but if say Virginia goes in there in a couple of weeks and wins everyone will consider that a great road win.
Kansas might also say that TCU is a tough place to play. Good teams will suffer road losses. This is not a revelation. It is also not the point. The point is that Illinois' Assembly Hall and Minnesota's Williams Arena do not tend to be difficult venues to play at for Michigan, especially Williams.
In our third straight overtime game
Can we get Novak to show up just to blow up on a few guys if we get down early?
I see Sparty by 10. 74-64
Unless we are flat like at Wisc, I think we match up well. We have a better perimeter game so guards need to shoot often and well because rebounds will be tough. Could be a key road win.
We will lose another physical battle tonight and I'm not sure we find the juice for MSU - as strange as that sounds - like we could for Ohio. This one looks a lot like the IU game, with less good basketball.
Nick and GRIII absolutely postively need to step up tonight. We won't beat Sparty with only Trey, Tim, and Mitch carrying the bulk of the scoring load.
Hardaway with a game winning running bank shot as time expires.
It'd be nice to start quickly, a la the Northwestern games. If we start quick I'd say Michigan by 6-10. If not, it wouldn't be surprising to see Sparty win by 10.
I feel like if we get a couple of good looks and buckets early it will help the team settle in. I'm sick of seeing the team start slow, especially on the road. MSU has looked dead at home in the first halves of their past few games. They scored 18 first half points against Minnesota for God's sake.
Start quickly. Silence the crowd. Get EVERYONE involved (WE ON Anyone?).
P.S. I really hope Burke does his beginning of the year Burke - roughly 16 points and 10 assists. It's growing old having him dribble out the clock while everyone stands and watches.
65- 60 Michigan
The pressue will be on Sparty tonight as they are leading the Big10 as of right now. They haven't faced that kind of pressure yet this year and we have seen what the pressure of being #1 in the country has done to teams and we seen K-State get hammered last night by their rival when they were in first place in the Big12. Marquette was in first in the BigEast and they proceeded to lose to Georgetown. Arizona regained first place over Oregon and promptly lost at home to Cal.
Here's a quick comparison:
|Overall - Off. Stat Comparison||Conference Only|
|Michigan||Michigan St.||Michigan||Michigan St.|
|Avg Score Margin||15.7||9.4||Avg Score Margin||10.7||5.5|
|Total Rebounds/Gm||36.5||36.9||Total Rebounds/Gm||35.0||34.0|
|Effective FG %||56.40%||51.70%||Effective FG %||54.96%||50.93%|
|Off Rebound %||31.40%||32.30%||Off Rebound %||33.10%||30.90%|
|Overall - Def. Stat Comparison||Conference Only|
|Michigan||Michigan St.||Michigan||Michigan St.|
|Opp Points/Game||60.3||59.3||Opp Points/Game||62.7||62.9|
|Opp Effective FG %||47.50%||44.70%||Opp Effective FG %||48.20%||48.79%|
|Off Rebounds/Gm||9.2||9.4||Off Rebounds/Gm||10.8||9.9|
|Def Rebounds/Gm||24||24||Def Rebounds/Gm||24.2||24.1|
By the numbers, this is a pretty even matchup, so if we don't come out looking as little flat as in the Wisconsin game, as someone noted above, then it stacks slightly in our favor, I would think. That being said, this seems like it will be another defensive game, so if we can make the easy shots that do come our way, we might get away with a win at Breslin. If we let State get out to a quick start, they have the defensive competency to make this Wisconsin redux. Not much of a prediction, but this game might be a good each way bet as Massey and other sites have noted. That being said, the optimist in me will go with 66-64-ish Michigan.
We are the better basketball team. Winning in the road is tough, but we have already been more than tested on the road. It's not like we just shrank under the pressure. We lost three hard fought games, one of which courtesy of a half court shot. We know to expect some bad calls, and the opponent to shoot better than normal. I also think we find a shooting touch tonight and won this in the 6-10 point range
I'm very concerned with our inside game going into the Breslin to face Payne and Nix. If we can limit the amount of production they get there I think we stand a decent chance.
Start strong, freshman play well, etc. etc..
Unfortunately, MSU pulls away late with free throws. 74-65
...as I see anything from MSU by 8 to UM by 10 (depending upon how they rebound from UW), I do think that if UM wins I see them as a Final Four team and if they lose I think they probably lose in the Great 8 game.
My rationale is that this is their last chance to make a statement outside the confines of Crisler before the B1G tournament and the tourney. If they lose tonight, I do think that they will carry with them added pressure and doubts about winning away/neutral games with unfriendly refs and the like. Also, it would likely mean that they would be out of the midwest for the tourney or, if they are a 2 seed, in the same bracket as IU in Indy (which might as well be an away game).
of the outcome, we have this:http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2013_swimsuit/models/kate-upton/
Didn't see this link anywhere and even if already posted it's worth a repeat or ten.
GRIII can show up and everyone else do what they do, then we can win this game by a handful of pts, if not, get ready for another game coming down to the wire. We need his quite 12 pts.
Burke has to win the match up with App and some how Michigan must limit Payne a bit. The guy has been on a tear and has been shooting the ball very well. They will go to the block on us time and time again. That is where they have an advantage on us. It will be interesting to see if Coach B goes with two bigs in the lineup or goes to a zone to counter Nix and Payne.
I think one of our biggest concerns is our defensive rebounding after short jumpers and layups.
In the past few games I think we've actually done a decent job defending the block; it's just that after our opponents throws up a bunny around the hoop, we cannot seem to grab a defensive board.
It's almost as if no matter if they make or miss a contested post touch, they have the putback immediately there.
Especially with State's size, I think that is the deciding factor.
Burke gives up the last shot and THJ drills it. Michigan wins 70-68. I sleep well and awake to happiness.
UM - 72
MSU - 67
Big bounce back game for UM. MSU does not have great perimeter defenders and Hardaway and Burke take advantage of this. Both go for 20+ as UM picks up a huge road win. Go Blue!!
> 15 minutes tonight and McGary fouls out (along with Appling).
I'm not exactly sure how the final outcome is decided, but I do predict we begin the game similar to the way the games at Indiana and Ohio State started. Flat.
Aside from the few fast starts that we've had, B1G play has really slowed us down. Once we get started, we generally can break out big scoring runs, but for the most part we've been a little slow on the uptake of getting comfortable with the environment, refs, defense, etc.
I'm not saying we lose, but, again, I think we're in for another ten point deficit halfway through the first half. We just need to respond adequately.
While we have lost three of our tough road games (@OSU, @Indiana, @WISC) we were in them all, after being down by 21 and 15 and 9, respectively. In fact, we should have beaten Wisconsin 60-57 and we probably would've beaten Indiana (or at least ended with a single digit loss) if they hadn't went 14 of 14 on their free throws to end the game (remember, we did score 3 straight 3s). And of course, Burke missed a finger roll basket to put Michigan up 1 in crunch time in the OSU game, only a 3 point loss.
Maybe tonight is finally our break? Maybe tonight we beat MSU in the final seconds or something good? This team sure as hell deserves it.
I think it would be foolish to expect a Michigan win given the road game/hostile environment, but if we fire quickly and catch State snoozing in the first half, we have a very, very good chance. The safe pick, at least for me, is a State victory by 8-10 points (padded by free throws at the end, should we choose to foul).
On an 80 foot granny shot by nix at the buzzer
Michigan is down by 10 pts just by entering the Breslin center but somehow overcome the terrible B1G refs...errr, Home Court advantage to win 75 - 68 in a much closer contest.
We go down by 15 early, make a mild comeback, and lose by eight or ten points.
BEATSPARTY BEATSPARTY BEATSPARTY BEATSPARTYBEATSPARTY
Gets out a turtle if they go down by more than 10.
WTF is this downvoted?
I'm scared sh*tless of this game. I don't have a good feeling going in, much to the fact that a few of our underclassmen (who play quite a bit) aren't getting the job done. We (Michigan) is very two-dimensional, with a 3rd, usually McGary playing fairly soild, right now: Burke and Hardaway are taking too much of the burden of scoring and keeping the team in games. We need to be more 4-dimensional with the 5th guy playing good to solid.
I'm sure Michigan State is ready to pounce on us and kick our ass. I hope our guys are able to respond, weather the first 5-8 minutes, settle in, and score efficiently with the usage of 3-4 guys, consistently. Defense will be a factor as always, but I think Sparty will get theirs and there's not much we're going to do that will "stop" them. Some turnovers will help and some transition baskets, which are those aforementioned efficient baskets, will help but if we play our standard mediocre defense and score like we were a month ago we can win this game.
75-64 Sparty. :-(