Predictions for Mich/Minn bball

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January 16th, 2013 at 10:38 AM
#1
goblue85
Joined: 08/23/2011
MGoPoints: 358
Predictions for Mich/Minn bball

For the first time this campaign, we are coming off a tough loss to Ohio.  Michigan will be on a tough mission going to the Barn to play a very good Minnesota team tomorrow night at 7pm ESPN.  Michigan has struggled the last two games shooting the basketball but their defense has played well for those two games.  We are due to steal a big game on the road.  One of these games were going to light up from the field.   I trust Burke and THJ will have these guys ready and will play with a chip on their shoulders tomorrow night.  I think will sneak out of the Barn with a close win.   Dick Vitale will be on call lol.

 

Michigan 72

Minny 67

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January 16th, 2013 at 10:40 AM | I think UM bounces back. (Score:1)
umbig11
Joined: 07/21/2010
MGoPoints: 1

That was a tough lesson to learn on the road last Sunday and I will bet Minny gets Michigan's best game. They must hit the boards to beat them.

January 16th, 2013 at 10:48 AM | Tough road lesson?  It wasn't (Score:-1 Flamebait)
January 16th, 2013 at 11:00 AM | That's it, don't even bother (Score:5 Normal)
Colt McBaby Jesus
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Joined: 01/08/2009
MGoPoints: 1205

That's it, don't even bother playing the road games anymore. The team is full of pussy's.

January 16th, 2013 at 11:06 AM | Not all of your post is way (Score:2)
MGoCombs
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Joined: 08/13/2009
MGoPoints: 624

Not all of your post is way off, in that I think there was a mental factor that weighed heavily on this game. However, I didn't perceive it as "intimidation". If anything, maybe it was a little arrogance. Hardaway certainly didn't look scared. If anything, it appeared as though he wasn't giving the opposition enough credit. They moved the ball around poorly and didn't shoot well to start the game. Something seemed off, but I didn't get the impression that they were scared.

Also, I don't really get your point about MSU. Michigan has contended and in some ways handled them in recent history. Nobody on this team really played the dominant MSU teams that had their way with Michigan. I think, if anything, that game could be another trap where they are over-confident, but hopefully they learned their lesson.

"And when we play as a team, when the old season is over, you and I know, it's gonna be Michigan again, Michigan."

January 16th, 2013 at 11:51 AM | I think MSU will be another hard nosed defensive (Score:1)
champswest
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Joined: 10/04/2009
MGoPoints: 2017

in your face effort by the opposition. Michigan needs to be prepared for that.

"I hate losing more than I like winning." - Zack

January 16th, 2013 at 12:46 PM | I agree. I am not saying MSU (Score:2)
MGoCombs
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Joined: 08/13/2009
MGoPoints: 624

I agree. I am not saying MSU won't be tough or it's a lock win by any means, but simply that I don't see MSU being a team that Michigan is going to be intimidated or scared about going into the game--more or less so than any other good Big Ten team. There's no reason to single out MSU as some psychological barrier for Michigan players.

"And when we play as a team, when the old season is over, you and I know, it's gonna be Michigan again, Michigan."

January 16th, 2013 at 11:30 AM | Smotrycz...is that you? (Score:1)
coldnjl
Joined: 12/31/2009
MGoPoints: 2432

Smotrycz...is that you?

January 16th, 2013 at 10:42 AM | I think a midseason loss can (Score:2)
Doctor Wolverine
Joined: 08/13/2009
MGoPoints: 426

I think a midseason loss can be a good thing, as long as the team uses it as a learning experience. I expect Michigan to come out firing at The Barn and come away with the win. 82-68 good guys win.

Doctor Wolverine

January 16th, 2013 at 10:58 AM | These threads always make me (Score:4 Normal)
samsoccer7
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Joined: 07/08/2008
MGoPoints: 921

These threads always make me think the game is the same night. Sad.

January 16th, 2013 at 12:02 PM | I agree as the prediction (Score:2)
RedGreene
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Joined: 07/02/2009
MGoPoints: 1329

I agree as the prediction threads used to be the day of the game.  Maybe the OP is afraid that someone will beat him to the punch?   His/her threads are usually on the 3rd or 4th page by game time.  Oh well.

Yes I got him a gift. He had a kidney stone. You piss a rock through your pecker, you deserve more than just a pat on the fucking back.

January 16th, 2013 at 11:05 AM | I predict we don't get down (Score:2)
GOLBOGM
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Joined: 11/20/2012
MGoPoints: 446

I predict we don't get down by 20 points early and forget how to dribble and play basketabll...

I also predict Stauskas will score...

I know... brave picks....

71-68 close all the way- we win!  I think the OSU game will have us very prepared- if you take out the first ten minutes we played a legit team away very very well for 30 minutes- think we can definitely win this one.  No need to panic with a loss though unless we get outclassed the whole way- Minnesota is a very talented team.

January 16th, 2013 at 11:56 AM | I think this game will be harder to win (Score:1)
champswest
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Joined: 10/04/2009
MGoPoints: 2017

than the Ohio game. Hopefully, we will be better prepared mentally and emotionally.

"I hate losing more than I like winning." - Zack

January 16th, 2013 at 11:07 AM | My heart says 75 - 69 Michigan (Score:1 Normal)
Zoltanrules
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Joined: 08/23/2009
MGoPoints: 269

My head says 75 - 69 Minnesota. Williams arena, athletes, a 6th year man child, and Tubby (how many great coaches are in the big10?) are too much for any visiting big 10 team.

 "I don’t wanna live in Rainbow Land, and you can’t make me!"

January 16th, 2013 at 11:29 AM | John Beilein at the Barn (Score:3 Normal)
MH20
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Joined: 10/30/2008
MGoPoints: 7576

JB is 3-1 at the Barn and 5-3 overall.  I like our chances.

"The difference between a man and a boy is, a boy wants to grow up to be a fireman, but a man wants to grow up to be a giant monster fireman."

- Jack Handey

January 16th, 2013 at 11:49 AM | I like the stat but it is (Score:1 Trolling)
Indonacious
Joined: 01/03/2012
MGoPoints: 514

I like the stat but it is totally devoid of any context, because this minny team is by far the best and most complete he has coached against at the barn.

January 16th, 2013 at 11:58 AM | Fair point. (Score:5 Insightful)
champswest
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Joined: 10/04/2009
MGoPoints: 2017

But, so is Michigan's.

"I hate losing more than I like winning." - Zack

January 16th, 2013 at 12:12 PM | context: (Score:2 Normal)
MH20
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Joined: 10/30/2008
MGoPoints: 7576

This is by far the best Michigan team that a Tubby Smith-coached Minnesota squad has ever faced.

"The difference between a man and a boy is, a boy wants to grow up to be a fireman, but a man wants to grow up to be a giant monster fireman."

- Jack Handey

January 16th, 2013 at 11:10 AM | I hope Beilein had them (Score:2)
MGoCombs
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Joined: 08/13/2009
MGoPoints: 624

I hope Beilein had them working like dogs on efficiency and shot selection all week. That seemed to be what plagued the team early and late in their loss. They didn't look like the team that picks you apart with their discipline and precision as much as their raw talent. I think they tried to rely too heavily on the latter against OSU.

If they get back to playing efficient basketball, I say they win by 6-7 points in a game that isn't ever that close.

"And when we play as a team, when the old season is over, you and I know, it's gonna be Michigan again, Michigan."

January 16th, 2013 at 11:25 AM | The B1G is going to be a blood bath this year... (Score:1 Normal)
Mr. Yost
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Joined: 07/25/2011
MGoPoints: 5706

I had us beating Ohio and losing @ Minnesota.

In order to keep my end of the year predictions alive, I'll give us a win here. 71-65 Michigan.

“True loyalty is that quality of service that grows under adversity and expands in defeat. Any street urchin can shout applause in victory, but it takes character to stand fast in defeat. One is noise — the other, loyalty.”

January 16th, 2013 at 11:30 AM | This (Score:2 Normal)
ijohnb
Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 2857

is going to be a very tough game for Michigan to win.  Consider:

1.  Minnesota is hyper athletic and can give Michigan a lot of trouble on the glass.  They also have quick physical guards that I think can get penetration into our interior.

2.  Minnesota is coming off a loss at Indiana and is eager to get back to the cozy confines of the Barn.

3.  Michigan had what I like to refer to as a "double loss" on Saturday.  They lost the initial game in the first half, and they lost the second game within the game when falling short after coming back.  A team that is blown out wants to get back to the floor to show the blowout was not legit.  A team that is blown out and then comes back to only lose has proven that the blowout was not legit but gets the bitter aftertaste of still losing.  Believe it or not, I think motivation could be a problem on Thursday.

4.  Michigan has snuck out of Minnesota with oh-no-you-didn't wins the last two years and I think Minnesota has had this game circled since the beginning of the year.

In spite of all of this, if Michigan comes out of there with a win it is probably time to start checking on air fare to Atlanta.

January 16th, 2013 at 12:02 PM | I think (Score:1)
TravTate
Joined: 01/11/2013
MGoPoints: 31

We will see better play out of Trey this game compared to last because this is just another game to him and he won't take this one so personal. His play can make all the difference in our composure as a whole. I think that's what will get us the W.

January 16th, 2013 at 12:03 PM | And, Minnesota is the more aggressive defensive team. (Score:1)
champswest
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Joined: 10/04/2009
MGoPoints: 2017

I think this is UM's most important game of the season since we don't get Minnesota at home. This is our only chance to hang an L on them.

"I hate losing more than I like winning." - Zack

January 16th, 2013 at 12:34 PM | This is a must win. That is (Score:1)
Ty Butterfield
Joined: 09/07/2009
MGoPoints: 933

This is a must win. That is all.

"But in the tire fire that was last year's secondary he showed a little spark." - Brian Cook

January 16th, 2013 at 12:37 PM | I predict Courtney Morgan (Score:0 Normal)
January 16th, 2013 at 1:14 PM | Disagree (Score:3 Normal)
Needs
Joined: 08/05/2008
MGoPoints: 4186

Obviously, you mean Jordan Morgan, but beyond that, McGary is a real liability, defensively, in the post and both rebound at around the same rates (though McG does seem to come up with more contested rebounds, just from eyeballing it).

umhoops ran the defensive efficiency numbers when the player's opponent shoots over an individual defender and the difference is stark. Morgan's allowing .593 PPP and a 32.7 eFG%, while McGary's numbers are .982 and 55.6%. Particularly against Minnesota, we can't give up those kinds of numbers on the block. When McGary's in, I think we'll see a lot of zone (in which McG can mitigate the usually poor zone rebounding b/c he's so instinctual a rebounder) but we certainly don't want either the 2-3 or the 1-3-1 to be our predominant defense. There's space for both of them, but umhoops concludes, and they're pretty compelling, that giving McG more minutes will come with some significant defensive problems without significant offsetting offensive production.

Here's the article...

http://www.umhoops.com/2013/01/15/behind-the-numbers-post-offense-and-de...

January 16th, 2013 at 1:44 PM | Interesting, and thanks for (Score:1 Normal)
EricTheActor
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Joined: 06/20/2011
MGoPoints: -1000469

Interesting, and thanks for the facts. Obviously I'm using the eye test. It just seems that McGary has been outplaying and outworking JORDAN Morgan over the last few games. Regardless, both need huge games on the glass tomorrow.

"Ack ack!"

January 16th, 2013 at 12:44 PM | Michigan 80 - MN 77 (Score:2)
StephenRKass
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Joined: 07/15/2008
MGoPoints: 4283

Michigan 80 - MN 77. Tough game. Will we be able to shoot from the outside? Will Burke play within himself? Knowing that the refs will call the game favorably to MN, will we be able to ?overcome that? Will all the freshmen really be prepared to play? These kinds of things will dictate the final outcome.

"It does not matter how many times you get knocked down, but how many times you get up." Vince Lombardi

 

January 16th, 2013 at 12:53 PM | We've had their number up (Score:2)
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 29067

We've had their number up there.  Minn is not a great defensive team, despite its size.  They are vulnerable on the perimeter.  I think Burke and Stauskas come back with a vengeance and we gut out a toughie. 

Prediction:

 76 for the team with the Block M and 71 for the team with the weird trapezoidal M.

January 16th, 2013 at 1:30 PM | In Minnesota... (Score:2)
LSAClassOf2000
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Joined: 01/07/2011
MGoPoints: 8947

Courtesy of TeamRankings, and to guide people in their predictions potentially:



Offensive Stat Comparison
  MICH MINN
Points/Game 77.8 76.3
Avg Score Margin 19.4 14.9
Assists/Game 15.6 16.5
Total Rebounds/Gm 38.4 41.6
Effective FG % 57.50% 52.00%
Off Rebound % 32.80% 47.70%
FTA/FGA 0.292 0.447
Turnover % 12.80% 17.60%
Defensive Stat Comparison
  MICH MINN
Opp Points/Game 58.4 61.4
Opp Effective FG % 46.20% 43.50%
Off Rebounds/Gm 9.4 14.4
Def Rebounds/Gm 25.8 23.1
Blocks/Game 2.7 6.4
Steals/Game 5.1 9.6
Personal Fouls/Gm 11.6 17.1

This will be a close-fought game, but we have done well in the recent past up there and I think we have the edge on defensive play where it will count the most, given these numbers. It would not be an easy win, but I could see a 71-67-ish game going to the good guys if we can they can do what they've done so well this season and play 40 minutes of poised, disciplined, ruthlessly efficient basketball. We are still #1 in Division I for offensive efficiency, and we are comparable with Minnesota in defensive efficiency, so if we live up to these ratings, we can grind out a win.

"Funny isn't it, how naughty dentists always make that one fatal mistake."

Follow the random tweets of a Michigan alum - http://twitter.com/#!/LorneEC3

January 16th, 2013 at 1:57 PM | Also:Michigan is scoring (Score:2)
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 29067

Also:

Michigan is scoring 1.21 points per possession and surrendering 0.94 PPP.

Minnesota is scoring 1.17 PPP and giving up 1.01.

The difference in the defensive PPP numbers appears to come down to fouls - Minn commits a lot more than we do, and thus gives up a lot of free throw attempts.

January 16th, 2013 at 5:53 PM | Their Offensive rebounding (Score:1)
allintime23
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Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 2400

Their Offensive rebounding will make and break this game. Water is wet.

All in for some manball.

January 16th, 2013 at 1:54 PM | It's going to be tough (Score:1)
BlueNation
Joined: 02/21/2012
MGoPoints: 288

I still think we win.

January 16th, 2013 at 2:08 PM | 69-64 (Score:1)
DemetriusBrown
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Joined: 01/01/2013
MGoPoints: 681

Michigan

January 16th, 2013 at 4:40 PM | Hope to be at the game (Score:0)
January 16th, 2013 at 5:10 PM | 76-70 (Score:1)
Hezrizn
Joined: 01/16/2013
MGoPoints: 4

Michigan

Blue me away

January 16th, 2013 at 5:51 PM | Michigan 71...tubby 64 (Score:1)
allintime23
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Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 2400

Michigan 71...tubby 64

All in for some manball.

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