Predictions for Mich/Minn bball

Submitted by goblue85 on

For the first time this campaign, we are coming off a tough loss to Ohio.  Michigan will be on a tough mission going to the Barn to play a very good Minnesota team tomorrow night at 7pm ESPN.  Michigan has struggled the last two games shooting the basketball but their defense has played well for those two games.  We are due to steal a big game on the road.  One of these games were going to light up from the field.   I trust Burke and THJ will have these guys ready and will play with a chip on their shoulders tomorrow night.  I think will sneak out of the Barn with a close win.   Dick Vitale will be on call lol.

 

Michigan 72

Minny 67

umbig11

January 16th, 2013 at 9:40 AM ^

That was a tough lesson to learn on the road last Sunday and I will bet Minny gets Michigan's best game. They must hit the boards to beat them.

Alumnus93

January 16th, 2013 at 9:48 AM ^

Tough road lesson?  It wasn't a lesson at all... rather, a revelation... that they are still scared and intimidated of OSU, when they shouldn't be.  They lost due to mental weakness, and not due to skill.     Expect the same thing when they play MSU in East Lansing.    Sunday's game was over before it started... you could see how intimidated they were...all but Albrect and McGary.

MGoCombs

January 16th, 2013 at 10:06 AM ^

Not all of your post is way off, in that I think there was a mental factor that weighed heavily on this game. However, I didn't perceive it as "intimidation". If anything, maybe it was a little arrogance. Hardaway certainly didn't look scared. If anything, it appeared as though he wasn't giving the opposition enough credit. They moved the ball around poorly and didn't shoot well to start the game. Something seemed off, but I didn't get the impression that they were scared.

Also, I don't really get your point about MSU. Michigan has contended and in some ways handled them in recent history. Nobody on this team really played the dominant MSU teams that had their way with Michigan. I think, if anything, that game could be another trap where they are over-confident, but hopefully they learned their lesson.

MGoCombs

January 16th, 2013 at 11:46 AM ^

I agree. I am not saying MSU won't be tough or it's a lock win by any means, but simply that I don't see MSU being a team that Michigan is going to be intimidated or scared about going into the game--more or less so than any other good Big Ten team. There's no reason to single out MSU as some psychological barrier for Michigan players.

Doctor Wolverine

January 16th, 2013 at 9:42 AM ^

I think a midseason loss can be a good thing, as long as the team uses it as a learning experience. I expect Michigan to come out firing at The Barn and come away with the win. 82-68 good guys win.

GOLBOGM

January 16th, 2013 at 10:05 AM ^

I predict we don't get down by 20 points early and forget how to dribble and play basketabll...

I also predict Stauskas will score...

I know... brave picks....

71-68 close all the way- we win!  I think the OSU game will have us very prepared- if you take out the first ten minutes we played a legit team away very very well for 30 minutes- think we can definitely win this one.  No need to panic with a loss though unless we get outclassed the whole way- Minnesota is a very talented team.

Zoltanrules

January 16th, 2013 at 10:07 AM ^

My head says 75 - 69 Minnesota. Williams arena, athletes, a 6th year man child, and Tubby (how many great coaches are in the big10?) are too much for any visiting big 10 team.

MGoCombs

January 16th, 2013 at 10:10 AM ^

I hope Beilein had them working like dogs on efficiency and shot selection all week. That seemed to be what plagued the team early and late in their loss. They didn't look like the team that picks you apart with their discipline and precision as much as their raw talent. I think they tried to rely too heavily on the latter against OSU.

If they get back to playing efficient basketball, I say they win by 6-7 points in a game that isn't ever that close.

ijohnb

January 16th, 2013 at 10:30 AM ^

is going to be a very tough game for Michigan to win.  Consider:

1.  Minnesota is hyper athletic and can give Michigan a lot of trouble on the glass.  They also have quick physical guards that I think can get penetration into our interior.

2.  Minnesota is coming off a loss at Indiana and is eager to get back to the cozy confines of the Barn.

3.  Michigan had what I like to refer to as a "double loss" on Saturday.  They lost the initial game in the first half, and they lost the second game within the game when falling short after coming back.  A team that is blown out wants to get back to the floor to show the blowout was not legit.  A team that is blown out and then comes back to only lose has proven that the blowout was not legit but gets the bitter aftertaste of still losing.  Believe it or not, I think motivation could be a problem on Thursday.

4.  Michigan has snuck out of Minnesota with oh-no-you-didn't wins the last two years and I think Minnesota has had this game circled since the beginning of the year.

In spite of all of this, if Michigan comes out of there with a win it is probably time to start checking on air fare to Atlanta.

Tate

January 16th, 2013 at 11:02 AM ^

We will see better play out of Trey this game compared to last because this is just another game to him and he won't take this one so personal. His play can make all the difference in our composure as a whole. I think that's what will get us the W.

EricTheActor

January 16th, 2013 at 11:37 AM ^

I predict Courtney Morgan will lose his starting job to McGary after this game. I thinks he's played poorly over the last 3 or 4 games. Gotta be big on the glass on both ends. Obviously would love a win here but I'm thinking 69-61 minny soda.

Needs

January 16th, 2013 at 12:14 PM ^

Obviously, you mean Jordan Morgan, but beyond that, McGary is a real liability, defensively, in the post and both rebound at around the same rates (though McG does seem to come up with more contested rebounds, just from eyeballing it).

umhoops ran the defensive efficiency numbers when the player's opponent shoots over an individual defender and the difference is stark. Morgan's allowing .593 PPP and a 32.7 eFG%, while McGary's numbers are .982 and 55.6%. Particularly against Minnesota, we can't give up those kinds of numbers on the block. When McGary's in, I think we'll see a lot of zone (in which McG can mitigate the usually poor zone rebounding b/c he's so instinctual a rebounder) but we certainly don't want either the 2-3 or the 1-3-1 to be our predominant defense. There's space for both of them, but umhoops concludes, and they're pretty compelling, that giving McG more minutes will come with some significant defensive problems without significant offsetting offensive production.

Here's the article...

http://www.umhoops.com/2013/01/15/behind-the-numbers-post-offense-and-d…

EricTheActor

January 16th, 2013 at 12:44 PM ^

Interesting, and thanks for the facts. Obviously I'm using the eye test. It just seems that McGary has been outplaying and outworking JORDAN Morgan over the last few games. Regardless, both need huge games on the glass tomorrow.

StephenRKass

January 16th, 2013 at 11:44 AM ^

Michigan 80 - MN 77. Tough game. Will we be able to shoot from the outside? Will Burke play within himself? Knowing that the refs will call the game favorably to MN, will we be able to ?overcome that? Will all the freshmen really be prepared to play? These kinds of things will dictate the final outcome.

jmblue

January 16th, 2013 at 11:53 AM ^

We've had their number up there.  Minn is not a great defensive team, despite its size.  They are vulnerable on the perimeter.  I think Burke and Stauskas come back with a vengeance and we gut out a toughie. 

Prediction:

 76 for the team with the Block M and 71 for the team with the weird trapezoidal M.

LSAClassOf2000

January 16th, 2013 at 12:30 PM ^

Courtesy of TeamRankings, and to guide people in their predictions potentially:

Offensive Stat Comparison
  MICH MINN
Points/Game 77.8 76.3
Avg Score Margin 19.4 14.9
Assists/Game 15.6 16.5
Total Rebounds/Gm 38.4 41.6
Effective FG % 57.50% 52.00%
Off Rebound % 32.80% 47.70%
FTA/FGA 0.292 0.447
Turnover % 12.80% 17.60%
Defensive Stat Comparison
  MICH MINN
Opp Points/Game 58.4 61.4
Opp Effective FG % 46.20% 43.50%
Off Rebounds/Gm 9.4 14.4
Def Rebounds/Gm 25.8 23.1
Blocks/Game 2.7 6.4
Steals/Game 5.1 9.6
Personal Fouls/Gm 11.6 17.1

This will be a close-fought game, but we have done well in the recent past up there and I think we have the edge on defensive play where it will count the most, given these numbers. It would not be an easy win, but I could see a 71-67-ish game going to the good guys if we can they can do what they've done so well this season and play 40 minutes of poised, disciplined, ruthlessly efficient basketball. We are still #1 in Division I for offensive efficiency, and we are comparable with Minnesota in defensive efficiency, so if we live up to these ratings, we can grind out a win.

jmblue

January 16th, 2013 at 12:57 PM ^

Also:

Michigan is scoring 1.21 points per possession and surrendering 0.94 PPP.

Minnesota is scoring 1.17 PPP and giving up 1.01.

The difference in the defensive PPP numbers appears to come down to fouls - Minn commits a lot more than we do, and thus gives up a lot of free throw attempts.