I suspect State will hold serve at home, but it will be close. I worry that Harris and co. will be able to slow down Stauskas like Duke did, but the team is demonstrably different now than they were to start the year. But this is still a top-5 MSU team, at home, coming off some easier games. I actually wasn't that worried about them with Dawson since this team seems able to weather bigger bodies better than I ever expected (witness FSU, Arizona, Iowa), but even with Payne out Appling and Harris are going to be a handful on the perimeter and this just reeks of one of those games where some guy on MSU's bench goes 4/5 from 3 and is unstoppable for a 10-minute stretch. And let's be honest; UM's offense is very good, but this is a hot streak to an extent and you have to expect it will cool down at some point.
Still, after the past two games, this really is house money. Obviously I'm rooting for a win, but a loss that isn't a repeat of last year will be fine given the past couple of games.