Predictions for Michigan-Iowa
I can't wait for tonight's game. The atmosphere should be terrific, and Iowa plays a really exciting brand of basketball. A win tonight for Michigan means a full two games of separation between the state of Michigan and everyone else in the Big Ten, heading into our showdown with Michigan State on Saturday.
Prediction: 79-74 Michigan because 2014.
January 22nd, 2014 at 11:46 AM ^
January 22nd, 2014 at 11:46 AM ^
January 22nd, 2014 at 11:47 AM ^
Color me not that impressed with Iowa. They have only won 1 true road game (@OSU) which looked very significant until OSU hit their 4 game losing streak. This will be Iowa's 4th road game of the season (they lost to Wisconsin and Iowa State in their other road games).
I think they're a good Iowa team, but benefitted from a soft non-conference schedule. Michigan may very well lose at Carver-Hawkeye, but I see them protecting home court in this game.
January 22nd, 2014 at 11:53 AM ^
Just eyeballing the chart Dylan made at UMHoops.com, I'd say Michigan and Iowa's wins are roughly the same so far in conference. Iowa just has that one tough loss.
http://www.umhoops.com/2014/01/20/big-ten-power-rankings-january-20th-2…
January 22nd, 2014 at 12:18 PM ^
Yeah, they are definitely in the upper third of the conference but I think we will find out for sure tonight. They have won at home against Nebraska, Northwestern, and Minnesota with none being excellent (unless you're of the persuasion that Minnesota is a good team this year, then maybe). They have a road loss at Wisconsin, forgivable, and a road win at slumping OSU.
January 22nd, 2014 at 1:16 PM ^
UM's is 35. This figure represents the average RPI position this week of teams both schools have lost to.
Iowa's average win RPI is 159; UM's is 144. (See above.)
January 22nd, 2014 at 11:49 AM ^
Can we please stop with the 2014 meme? Please? It's so annoying, especially considering it's January.
January 22nd, 2014 at 11:55 AM ^
January of what year?
January 22nd, 2014 at 1:27 PM ^
You win 2014, you zombie bastard calendar year. You win.
January 22nd, 2014 at 11:58 AM ^
1/1/2015.
January 22nd, 2014 at 2:10 PM ^
2015 will be even better, starting with our bowl game. 2015 Is going to be a great year.
January 22nd, 2014 at 3:29 PM ^
January 22nd, 2014 at 1:25 PM ^
How could I deny a face like that?
2014 TEH SHIZNITZ!!!
January 22nd, 2014 at 12:59 PM ^
Come on, why is it so hard to let people hold on to the irrational belief that Earth reaching an arbitrary point on its revolution around the Sun has some sort of impact on the outcome of Michigan sporting events?
January 22nd, 2014 at 11:50 AM ^
My prediction is Fran McCaffery's face will get extremely red no less than three times during the game. Also, multiple jacket tosses. #BOOM
January 22nd, 2014 at 11:51 AM ^
Whatever KenPom says.
January 22nd, 2014 at 11:52 AM ^
January 22nd, 2014 at 11:53 AM ^
72-71 Michigan. Gut wrenching finish, but we pull it out on a layup (either us making or them missing).
January 22nd, 2014 at 11:54 AM ^
Angry bankers
January 22nd, 2014 at 11:54 AM ^
UM - 82
Iowa - 69
January 22nd, 2014 at 11:54 AM ^
Them -- not so great on road, and OSU win has lost some shine. But, lotsa experienced talent.
Us -- feels like we are up-and-coming, but will need to both show up after huge win at Wiscy, and survive an Iowa run or two. Here's hopeing that 50+% shooting is a real thing tonight.
Blue, 74-72.
January 22nd, 2014 at 11:56 AM ^
Michigan 69, Iowa 67
January 22nd, 2014 at 11:56 AM ^
87-79 Michigan
Stauskas, LeVert and Robinson combine to score over 60 points.
January 22nd, 2014 at 11:58 AM ^
January 22nd, 2014 at 11:59 AM ^
Here is how TeamRankings sizes this up...
|
Offense
|
Iowa | Michigan |
| Points/Game | 86.8 | 77.3 |
| Avg Score Margin | +20.2 | +13.8 |
| Assists/Game | 17.1 | 15.6 |
| Total Rebounds/Gm | 44.7 | 33.5 |
| Effective FG % | 52.6% | 56.4% |
| Off Rebound % | 38.0% | 26.7% |
| FTA/FGA | 0.500 | 0.351 |
| Turnover % | 13.3% | 12.3% |
|
Defense
|
Iowa | Michigan |
| Opp Points/Game | 66.6 | 63.5 |
| Opp Effective FG % | 42.5% | 48.1% |
| Off Rebounds/Gm | 12.6 | 7.6 |
| Def Rebounds/Gm | 29.4 | 23.1 |
| Blocks/Game | 5.3 | 2.9 |
| Steals/Game | 7.2 | 5.8 |
| Personal Fouls/Gm | 17.6 | 14.8 |
It's a close one, I bet. We have the better shooting (slightly) and a slightly lower turnover percentage, but rebounding and not letting Iowa visit the free throw line too much will be critical. Michigan by a couple possessions (perhaps literally).
January 22nd, 2014 at 12:14 PM ^
Those stats don't tell much because of the drastically different tempos. If you multiply all of Michigan's numbers that are correlated to # of possesions by 1.2 you see that MIchigan's offense looks better and their defense looks worse. That said, I'm more worried about this game than MSU. I can see Michigan getting out to a sluggish start after such a big win at Wisconsin and not being able to dig out of the hole the put themselves in. Wouldn't be surprised to see Michigan down 10 points at the half and end up losing by 2-3.
January 22nd, 2014 at 12:42 PM ^
I will say that one of the things that I wish they would put in these comparisons for that reason is possessions per game, offensive efficiency and effective possession ratio. As for possesions, Iowa's season average is 75 and ours is 66, but if you take the averages above and get efficiency, the numbers come out slightly in our favor - 1.17 to 1.15. However, Iowa has a better effective possession ratio - 1.01 to 0.978. Tempo definitely comes into it.
January 22nd, 2014 at 12:24 PM ^
The comparison is informative, but at this point only slightly. WIth UM having played 5 road games to Iowa's 3, and, aside from the same opponents (ISU, UW), UM playing Arizona and Duke while Iowas has played Villenova and...OSU, the comparison seems too qualified at this point to serve as a basis for prediction.
The comparison will be more meaningful later in the season, or if someone compared the teams when they played similar opponents and road/home games.
January 22nd, 2014 at 11:59 AM ^
Crystal ball sees Michigan win and beers.
January 22nd, 2014 at 12:00 PM ^
January 22nd, 2014 at 12:01 PM ^
I predict many children will shit their pants if Herky makes an appearance.
January 22nd, 2014 at 12:02 PM ^
80-76 Good guys. 2014!
January 22nd, 2014 at 12:03 PM ^
73-71 Michigan and Macaffery has a stroke when Jordan Morgan draws a final minute charge to seal the W.
January 22nd, 2014 at 12:05 PM ^
Michigan 75-62 Iowa
Wings 4-2 Hawks
January 22nd, 2014 at 12:05 PM ^
January 22nd, 2014 at 12:06 PM ^
It is going to be awesome. We are at home. We will win. I was also thinking about what I am expecting our conference record to be at the end of the year. I am thinking 13-5. Thoughts??
January 22nd, 2014 at 12:06 PM ^
Iowa - 73
Michigan - 68
January 22nd, 2014 at 12:19 PM ^
January 22nd, 2014 at 12:46 PM ^
But, since I'm wrong with sports score predictions nearly ALL OF THE TIME, I figure I don't wanna break precedent here.
January 22nd, 2014 at 1:54 PM ^
Iowa 80
Michigan 72
I think we're due for a let down in between two huge games. And I think Iowa is a legit Final Four contender.
I hope I'm wrong.
GO BLUE!
January 22nd, 2014 at 3:04 PM ^
That's so good.
January 22nd, 2014 at 12:06 PM ^
I have to believe Michigan wins this game. They are riding high right now and want to go to East Lansing with a perfect Big Ten record and to play for first place. I have a bad feeling about that game though.
January 22nd, 2014 at 12:06 PM ^
a 7-point margin as they foul the crap out of us down the stretch, 83-76. GRIII is the difference-maker tonight.
January 22nd, 2014 at 1:47 PM ^
I think GRIII will have a huge night as they try to key on Stauskas and their length disrupts our shooters. GRIII gets going early and activates beast mode to ensure the victory.
January 22nd, 2014 at 12:20 PM ^
January 22nd, 2014 at 12:21 PM ^
Game strategy:
1. Piss off Fran McCaffery at critical game juncture
2. Earn 4 technical foul free throws
3. Make the free throws
4. Get ball possession
5. Profit.