Do we see more of Derrick Green and Deveon Smith like against NW? Does Kalis replace Bosch?
Progress or Doom?
And of course, FINAL SCORE?
I predict a very "boring" game, much like the last two (sans OT vs N'W). Michigan loses 19-13.
I think its going to be very cold, and an aerial attack is going to be slightly more challenging. I can see the game going 3 & out for quite awhile until something big breaks (long play, INT, etc).
That said, if we get to moving the ball and the chains, the short field in the red zone is something that we have increasingly slipped with. Early (and going back into last season) the red zone TD efficiency was very nice, Gibby has gotten a lot of work in the meantime.
Understandably red zone is where a functional power offense can really benefit. Simply run over the other team and dare the defense to load up the box and cheat (cheat by position, alignment dowhill flow of LBs and DBs, etc) to stop it.
Which is where that back corner double move endzone throw that we referred to as kids as "the Michigan play" comes in. In those days Anthony Carter ran the play. Although more might be familiar with Desmond finds another gear to get under Grbac's looping howitzer throw, catching it while parallel with the earth...
I think we'll win 24 -14. For some reason I am actually feeling good about this game and our ability match up effectively with Iowa.
Ferentz will likely not blitz Gardner to kingdom come. I expect this to be Gardner's best performance of all the remaining games. It will heighten the UM fanbases spirits just in time for Ohio to pick-up where State left off in terms of exposing the O-line. Let's all enjoy the week of peace and quiet.
It'll be interesting to see how much of the offense's woes are caused by aggressive defenses v. just not being very good. I could see a good but conservative defense not having the impact of a bad but aggressive unit. It really seems like blitzing up the middle pretty much sinks the offense.
I am similarly curious but did you think Northwestern blitzed a lot? I didnt think they did it nearly as much as MSU or Nebraska yet held the offense in check in terms of 3rd down conversions, playing what I viewed as a conservative game plan on D. If they could have picked off a few of those gifts Devin was handing out I think the conversation would be much darker about what the offense can or will do vs Iowa.
I haven't read the UFR or anything for NW, but I actually don't remember a terrible amount of blitzing. I remember mostly the LBs sitting in coverage, dropping INTs.
I was thinking more along the lines of a bad Nebraska defense, sending guys up the middle like they were MSU.
They didn't bring the house nearly as often, but they rushed an extra LB or safety pretty consistently, especially early on before (I know you won't believe me) Borges called some screens and bubbles to back them off a little. They did seem to bring extra guys in obvious 3rd down situations, because... obviously. Where State and Nebraska seemed to like pressing their corners and holding 1v1 coverage until all out blitzes hit home, NW seemed to like hedging a bit and sending one or two extra guys and trying to get a robber to drop into coverage and read where the dump off would go and undercut it. They were very successful at it right up to the catching the ball part.
Yes that is how I viewed it myself as I was thinking where are all double A gap blitzes that are now the bread and butter to blowing up this offense. I just assume now every team is going to bring 6 rushers every play until UM does something about it. Then my second thought as I watched NW completely stymie the offense aside from a few extra running plays was.... well apparently ANY defense will do to stop this juggernaut of Borges. Iowa would be more towards NW style I assume as they are very Mattison like in philosopy (don't get beat over the top, be vanilla) whereas MSU and Nebraska play similar press coverages and attacking style defenses. And while Neb is junky overall in stats on the D and were horrid early in the year they have improved as the season has gone by. Randy Gregory is a beast and looks to be an All American candidata entering next year and they did some good things against both MSU and UM offenses. Also against NW Neb D only gave up 13 if you dont inclue the Hail Mary (7 NW points came off a pick 6) At least when they fail they seem to fail out of aggression rather than being passive
So once again a "crappy unit" is improving as the season goes by... what a concept. Pelini might actually have that defense in solid condition by the time their bowl hits.
That is exactly the feeling that watching several games have resulted in this season. I see no reason to believe it will be any different this week. Hopefully, the nausea will be followed by some measure of relief as felt after Akron, UConn and NW.
I wish games against NW, Iowa, Indiana, and PSU were still automatic wins.
That said, I look for Fitz to come back and start but Green will still get a bulk of the carries. Offensive line takes another step forward. Michigan wins 17-10.
Exactly. Iowa has always played us tough. NW has played us remarkably close over the past ten years or so as well.
IU is the only new one to the list, and let's face it, with that offense they will always have a punchers chance.
Over the last 8 years -
Teams UM "owns": Illinois & Purdue, Minnesota, IU, Nw
Teams that "own" UM: MSU (5 of 6), Penn St (losing streak), Wisconsin (lost last 2 in ugly fashion), Nebraska (1-2 with a home loss), and Ohio St. (1 win)
TBD: Iowa (beating them this weekend erases the losing streak from before 2012, a loss makes it 4 of 5)
If you look at this list, UM would be right in the middle of the traditionally good teams, and the bad teams. Not sure which group UM belongs in...
UM 20 - Iowa 13
For the life of me, I can't remember a year when all of those teams (except maybe Indiana) was an automatic win. Even 2006, Iowa and Penn State were very close games. NW has always been one of those pesky teams, generally it's a win but it's never an easy win (last two years are shining examples of this).
I think Iowa always plays tough, so the game is going to be close. But I'm hoping Michigan rides the momentum of a tough and somewhat miraculous win last week. I'm hoping that the Nebraska game was more of a mental hangover from the MSU game than anything else (the dreaded "don't let them beat you twice" disease). Because right now, Michigan needs all the confidence it can get. If they want a real shot at beating Ohio, they have to truly believe that they will beat them.
our record against those teams were probably the best over a decade.
Will probably be like the Nebraska game. The D will keep Michigan in the game while the offense will sputter around like a middle school kid trying to ask a girl out for the first time. Coaches give most of the carries to Fitz and my head asplodes. The D is gassed by the fourth quarter because they have been on the field too long and lets Iowa drive down for the game wining score.
I predict frustration with playcalling
Agree... Borges is game-planning a ball-control 9-7 victory as we speak
I expect the same old horrible play calling...oh and the same old coach speak "got to execute better"
I predict my friends and I are going to be quite tired by the end of the day. Chicago to Iowa City tomorrow morning. Leaving early enough to tailgate and me being one of the drivers makes for lots of makeup sleep the rest of the weekend. As far as the game goes I think it will be competitive. Iowa is a solid team but are decidely average. It is in their home stadium though which will be a tougher test than Evanston last weekend. I do think we see Smith and Green but Fitz will be in there too. I'm hoping the offensive line scheme is helping to make some progress there because no matter who is running it if the line can't block and open up some holes it just won't matter. Just not sure about Kalis replacing Bosch but it sounds like Brian has some info that suggests that so maybe. I am rooting for progress. It took long enough but I think that Borges finally knows what he has and even though he'll have a few brain farts and throw one out wide far too much for my liking I think there will be some good play calls that, yes, our players will need to execute. Not making a prediction in score either way but it is going to be close. Hoping for a competitive game and expecting it will be.
See our defense continuing to show that it is becomming one of the best in the conference. 23-13. Meeeechigan.
Feeling like we lose this one something like 21-13. Just not confident at all. Will be stocking my fridge this afternoon.
Ice-cold grain alcohol will help dull the pain.
24-6, Iowa wins.
Maybe he means Iowa is the one exploding.
Prediction: Corn is planted, grown, and harvested before either team scores.
Score: Corn - Giant Noodle.
Green goes over 100 with 2 tds and Devin throws no picks. Michigan 28-14.
in which our D plays well enough to win, but our offense resumes stepping on its dick.
Most crucially, Iowa's DBs don't drop the easy interceptions tomorrow.
Iowa 20 UM 10
Fun fact: Since Hayden Fry arrived in Iowa City in 1979, Michigan is 7-5-1 at Iowa, which is better than I would have guessed.
Is this game going to be particularly boring, or do you not enjoy low-scoring games?
I found NW riveting, as every drive was important if for nothing else than field position. We all knew it would come down to a field goal.
Are you offering a Free MGoT-Shirt if I guess to correct score?
Oh, you aren't?
Then no, I will not participate!
We score 10
Wow...I'm the voice of hope in this thread? Who would guess that would happen.
We've won 41 out 54 all time against these guys. And we've got a better team and...wait for it....wait for it.....
We are going to win. Not telling you to put away the grain alcohol...it works the same in a celebration!
Until this thing turns into a game-within-a-game between Hoke and Ferentz to see who can most accurately replicate Lloydball.
Hall of Fame coach Lloyd Carr had a record of 122-40 (75.3%) and was 81-23 (77.9%) in B1G play. He won 5 B1G titles and 1 National Championship.
Whoever replicates LloydBall more accurately will win the game. A great number of their games, really.
Coach Carr, with all due respect, frustrated me more than any other M coach. The plodding first half followed by seeming desperation due to time running out to open up the game and try some other stuff farther down the field, made me hurl more objects than any time since. It was a good strategy which obviously won many games.
However, I believe the Faustian Senator Tressel recognized this pattern, planned to play against the plod in the first half, and planned for a seemingly entirely new team to take the field in the second half. Lloyd wasn't changing, Tressel wasn't changing, and they were going to own us for a very long time.
The frustration for me was if we could play that well late in the game, why not simply do that from the start, get some points early so it wasn't such a nail biter at the end. Its possible that my youth and lack of patience contributed to the emotional state.
I also believe that the top of the plateau so to speak for Michigan's program (sort of our psychological "status" locally and nationwide) was when we were knocking off Cooper with regularity. The slow decline started when Tressel arrived, and we fell into a 3 year chuckhole. Im excited about what I see these days. We all want "NOW" in this day and age, I think the gears of Michigan are building up inertia again. We will be a well-oiled machine soon. Give it time.
It would be interesting to see how much the drop off has been on an annual basis between Carr's teams and the past 7 teams or so in terms of NFL draft picks - the Henne/Long/Hart group was the last team that seemed to have a lot of NFL talent on it. Carr frustrated me not so much for what you describe but it always seemed we had so much talent but always dropped 1-2 games a year we had no right to. Moeller too but for whatever reason the offense seemed more exciting under Moeller or maybe my memory is just telling me that. I bet in the Carr era we had just as much, if not more, NFL talent on this team than any SEC team. OSU at the time as well, had a ton but they have had little drop off post Cooper.
Hence with all that talent the 3-4 loss Carr season merry go round reall was frustrating.
I think Tressel's "dominance" of Carr is maybe more illusion than reality. Their teams played games that were generally very close in terms of points. When games come down to one or two plays the teams are near a statistical tie. If you flip a coin 50 times you will find that you can get runs of 5 heads or 7 tails. I think Carr just got an unlucky roll of the dice. Anyone who understands probabilities realizes that a series of close wins does not equal dominance. Carr was a much better coach than people give him credit. He actually pulled off manball; I rememeber how he smashed Weis and ND by punching them in the face. Punched Tebow in the face too.
your username is logic? Hilarious. St Tress lost what, 1 game out of 7 to Lloyd? (stats from memory only) That is domination.
Also, We didn't beat Tebow with "manball", we opened up with a passing spread for once and it destroyed Florida. That's why I respect all that Carr did for Michigan but wonder what could have been if he was just a little bit more progressive on offense.
Serious question- other than Mattison which coaches at UM do you feel are superior to Iowa. Do you truly think Ferentz is worse than Hoke? Based on what criteria? Ability to withstand weather conditions without a jacket? Ability to be disengaged from offensive play calling? Ability to clap repeatedly all game? When you evaluate coaches you have to take into account their circumstances - any coach staff at UM has massive advantage over all but 6-7 staffs in the country. Ferentz at UM would be Carr 2.0, which right now is above what Hoke is putting out other than on the recrooooooting trail.
Do you think (insert random coach) is worse than Borges. Do you think the Iowa OL coach is worse than Funk? Do you think the Iowa LB coach - he who has sent multiple good players to the NFL and has 3 studs out there right now - is worse than Manning who has had all of 3/4 of a year at UM?
Iowa doesnt recruit anywhere near what UM does and has a bevy of NFL players. That goes to coaching. Yeah Ferentz is overpaid but is a solid top 25-30 coach in the country coach and usually has a pretty good staff which at a school like Iowa is necessary since you need to coach 2-3 stars up at a school like that. We have a gold rush of 4 stars here to work with. And getting the same results in terms of NFL product...i.e. not that much.
Iowa is putting out just as many NFL players as UM is right now and with a lot less raw material to work with. Yeah they are not all stars but most of UM's "stars"* in the NFL are from the Carr era... (Brady, Woodson, Woodley, Avant, Hall, Harris, Long, Manningham). Martin and Graham are the 2 main NFL dudes of the past half decade.... with all apologies to Will Campbell and Denard. [insert disclaimer here about how it is all Rich Rod's fault and we will send a Brink's truck full of NFL stars into the NFL in 2 yrs once Hoke's classes mature]
*I am using a loose interpretation of NFL star.
|Pat Angerer||Indianapolis Colts||Linebacker|
|Jonathan Babineaux||Atlanta Falcons||Defensive Tackle|
|Bryan Bulaga||Green Bay Packers||Offensive Tackle|
|Scott Chandler||Buffalo Bills||Tight End|
|Dallas Clark||Baltimore Ravens||Tight End|
|Adrian Clayborn||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||Defensive End|
|Colin Cole||Carolina Panthers||Defensive Tackle|
|Mike Daniels||Green Bay Packers||Defensive End|
|Bradley Fletcher||Philadelphia Eagles||Cornerback|
|Adam Gettis||Washington Redskins||Guard|
|Charles Godfrey||Carolina Panthers||Safety|
|Shonn Greene||Tennessee Titans||Running Back|
|Chad Greenway||Minnesota Vikings||Linebacker|
|Micah Hyde||Green Bay Packers||Cornerback|
|Karl Klug||Tennessee Titans||Defensive End|
|Marvin McNutt||Carolina Panthers||Wide Receiver|
|Brandon Myers||New York Giants||Tight End|
|Shaun Prater||Minnesota Vikings||Cornerback|
|Riley Reiff||Detroit Lions||Offensive Tackle|
|Allen Reisner||Jacksonville Jaguars||Tight End|
|Ricky Stanzi||Jacksonville Jaguars||Quarterback|
|Jeff Tarpinian||Houston Texans||Linebacker|
|Matt Tobin||Philadelphia Eagles||Offensive Tackle|
|Julian Vandervelde||Philadelphia Eagles||Center|
|Marshal Yanda||Baltimore Ravens||Guard|
|Markus Zusevics||New England Patriots||
I'll try and give a serious answer (and where is SC, Reshp 1 & Reader 71 when i need them) First off I dont think players in the pro's is a good comparison cause Hoke has yet to have any of his recruits even get to the draft. I cant blame or credit him for what he inherted from Rich. But let's look at a side by side comparison of the staff and I'll tell you what I think:
Hoke V Ferentz: I'd take Hoke. Better game manager IMO and not afraid to take chances. That being said Ferentz ALWAYS seems to break tendencies against us but I'd still take Hoke.
Davis V Borges: Believe it or not I'd take Borges. As vocal as I've been re dumping Borges, Davis is exponentially worse IMO. Davis as a Michigan OC would make me do bad things to furniture and defensiveless childrent I'm afraid.
Ferentz V Funk: Don't know. As poor as I think Funk has done this year I'm always VERY suspect of nepotism in the coaching ranks. David Shula anyone?
Parker V Mattison: Is this even a question? This is like that Monty Python bit when the boxer fought a 10 year old girl. Mattison all day long in a landslide.
So yes....I think we an advantadge in coaching and not a small one.
I dont think NFL players is a great comparison either as AGAIN Texas, Alabama, LSU, USC, OSU, ND, UM et al have a massive advantage in terms of raw material. By nature they should send out way more NFL players than Iowa, Minnesota, Arkansas, Arizona State, or Boston College. My point there was we have not exactly been churning out NFL product.
I would say player development from August to November and unit development is a much better gauge. On that front there are some questions, especially on one side of the ball. Anyhow, Iowa went into Columbus and had a fine showing, giving OSU all it could handle for 3 quarters despite significant shortfalls in personnel vs OSU. UM on the other hand recruits in OSU's vicinity year in and year out, for decades. So you can see where it goes from there.
p.s. re: Mattison, I think he is a very good coach but I am not on the "great" bandwagon and don't think it is no brainer as you do. Iowa has a top 10 nationally ranked defense which is benefiting from playing in the Big 10, as does every defense that gets to play this pretty bad conference's offenses week in and week out. Is is pretty difficult to do better than top 10 with the type of talent Iowa gets...so I'd say they have coached those kids up very well. Maybe they'd be top 5 with UM's talent.... to that end what would Iowa's defense need to rank nationally for you to not say "is it even a question?" 3? 2? 4? (and yes this is just one year, and Iowa's defense is not normally ranked this high but they are usually solid without a lot of playmakers).
Good points all. What about the balance of the comparison of the coaches? Would you take Iowa's over ours - if so, why?
To me it seems like we are superior. I'd be interested in hearing if you agree.