Do we see more of Derrick Green and Deveon Smith like against NW? Does Kalis replace Bosch?
Progress or Doom?
And of course, FINAL SCORE?
I predict a very "boring" game, much like the last two (sans OT vs N'W). Michigan loses 19-13.
I think its going to be very cold, and an aerial attack is going to be slightly more challenging. I can see the game going 3 & out for quite awhile until something big breaks (long play, INT, etc).
That said, if we get to moving the ball and the chains, the short field in the red zone is something that we have increasingly slipped with. Early (and going back into last season) the red zone TD efficiency was very nice, Gibby has gotten a lot of work in the meantime.
Understandably red zone is where a functional power offense can really benefit. Simply run over the other team and dare the defense to load up the box and cheat (cheat by position, alignment dowhill flow of LBs and DBs, etc) to stop it.
Which is where that back corner double move endzone throw that we referred to as kids as "the Michigan play" comes in. In those days Anthony Carter ran the play. Although more might be familiar with Desmond finds another gear to get under Grbac's looping howitzer throw, catching it while parallel with the earth...
I think we'll win 24 -14. For some reason I am actually feeling good about this game and our ability match up effectively with Iowa.
Ferentz will likely not blitz Gardner to kingdom come. I expect this to be Gardner's best performance of all the remaining games. It will heighten the UM fanbases spirits just in time for Ohio to pick-up where State left off in terms of exposing the O-line. Let's all enjoy the week of peace and quiet.
It'll be interesting to see how much of the offense's woes are caused by aggressive defenses v. just not being very good. I could see a good but conservative defense not having the impact of a bad but aggressive unit. It really seems like blitzing up the middle pretty much sinks the offense.
I am similarly curious but did you think Northwestern blitzed a lot? I didnt think they did it nearly as much as MSU or Nebraska yet held the offense in check in terms of 3rd down conversions, playing what I viewed as a conservative game plan on D. If they could have picked off a few of those gifts Devin was handing out I think the conversation would be much darker about what the offense can or will do vs Iowa.
I haven't read the UFR or anything for NW, but I actually don't remember a terrible amount of blitzing. I remember mostly the LBs sitting in coverage, dropping INTs.
I was thinking more along the lines of a bad Nebraska defense, sending guys up the middle like they were MSU.
They didn't bring the house nearly as often, but they rushed an extra LB or safety pretty consistently, especially early on before (I know you won't believe me) Borges called some screens and bubbles to back them off a little. They did seem to bring extra guys in obvious 3rd down situations, because... obviously. Where State and Nebraska seemed to like pressing their corners and holding 1v1 coverage until all out blitzes hit home, NW seemed to like hedging a bit and sending one or two extra guys and trying to get a robber to drop into coverage and read where the dump off would go and undercut it. They were very successful at it right up to the catching the ball part.
Yes that is how I viewed it myself as I was thinking where are all double A gap blitzes that are now the bread and butter to blowing up this offense. I just assume now every team is going to bring 6 rushers every play until UM does something about it. Then my second thought as I watched NW completely stymie the offense aside from a few extra running plays was.... well apparently ANY defense will do to stop this juggernaut of Borges. Iowa would be more towards NW style I assume as they are very Mattison like in philosopy (don't get beat over the top, be vanilla) whereas MSU and Nebraska play similar press coverages and attacking style defenses. And while Neb is junky overall in stats on the D and were horrid early in the year they have improved as the season has gone by. Randy Gregory is a beast and looks to be an All American candidata entering next year and they did some good things against both MSU and UM offenses. Also against NW Neb D only gave up 13 if you dont inclue the Hail Mary (7 NW points came off a pick 6) At least when they fail they seem to fail out of aggression rather than being passive
So once again a "crappy unit" is improving as the season goes by... what a concept. Pelini might actually have that defense in solid condition by the time their bowl hits.
That is exactly the feeling that watching several games have resulted in this season. I see no reason to believe it will be any different this week. Hopefully, the nausea will be followed by some measure of relief as felt after Akron, UConn and NW.
I wish games against NW, Iowa, Indiana, and PSU were still automatic wins.
That said, I look for Fitz to come back and start but Green will still get a bulk of the carries. Offensive line takes another step forward. Michigan wins 17-10.
Exactly. Iowa has always played us tough. NW has played us remarkably close over the past ten years or so as well.
IU is the only new one to the list, and let's face it, with that offense they will always have a punchers chance.
Over the last 8 years -
Teams UM "owns": Illinois & Purdue, Minnesota, IU, Nw
Teams that "own" UM: MSU (5 of 6), Penn St (losing streak), Wisconsin (lost last 2 in ugly fashion), Nebraska (1-2 with a home loss), and Ohio St. (1 win)
TBD: Iowa (beating them this weekend erases the losing streak from before 2012, a loss makes it 4 of 5)
If you look at this list, UM would be right in the middle of the traditionally good teams, and the bad teams. Not sure which group UM belongs in...
UM 20 - Iowa 13
For the life of me, I can't remember a year when all of those teams (except maybe Indiana) was an automatic win. Even 2006, Iowa and Penn State were very close games. NW has always been one of those pesky teams, generally it's a win but it's never an easy win (last two years are shining examples of this).
I think Iowa always plays tough, so the game is going to be close. But I'm hoping Michigan rides the momentum of a tough and somewhat miraculous win last week. I'm hoping that the Nebraska game was more of a mental hangover from the MSU game than anything else (the dreaded "don't let them beat you twice" disease). Because right now, Michigan needs all the confidence it can get. If they want a real shot at beating Ohio, they have to truly believe that they will beat them.
our record against those teams were probably the best over a decade.
Will probably be like the Nebraska game. The D will keep Michigan in the game while the offense will sputter around like a middle school kid trying to ask a girl out for the first time. Coaches give most of the carries to Fitz and my head asplodes. The D is gassed by the fourth quarter because they have been on the field too long and lets Iowa drive down for the game wining score.
I predict frustration with playcalling
Agree... Borges is game-planning a ball-control 9-7 victory as we speak
I expect the same old horrible play calling...oh and the same old coach speak "got to execute better"
I predict my friends and I are going to be quite tired by the end of the day. Chicago to Iowa City tomorrow morning. Leaving early enough to tailgate and me being one of the drivers makes for lots of makeup sleep the rest of the weekend. As far as the game goes I think it will be competitive. Iowa is a solid team but are decidely average. It is in their home stadium though which will be a tougher test than Evanston last weekend. I do think we see Smith and Green but Fitz will be in there too. I'm hoping the offensive line scheme is helping to make some progress there because no matter who is running it if the line can't block and open up some holes it just won't matter. Just not sure about Kalis replacing Bosch but it sounds like Brian has some info that suggests that so maybe. I am rooting for progress. It took long enough but I think that Borges finally knows what he has and even though he'll have a few brain farts and throw one out wide far too much for my liking I think there will be some good play calls that, yes, our players will need to execute. Not making a prediction in score either way but it is going to be close. Hoping for a competitive game and expecting it will be.
See our defense continuing to show that it is becomming one of the best in the conference. 23-13. Meeeechigan.
Feeling like we lose this one something like 21-13. Just not confident at all. Will be stocking my fridge this afternoon.
Ice-cold grain alcohol will help dull the pain.
24-6, Iowa wins.
Maybe he means Iowa is the one exploding.
Prediction: Corn is planted, grown, and harvested before either team scores.
Score: Corn - Giant Noodle.
Green goes over 100 with 2 tds and Devin throws no picks. Michigan 28-14.
in which our D plays well enough to win, but our offense resumes stepping on its dick.
Most crucially, Iowa's DBs don't drop the easy interceptions tomorrow.
Iowa 20 UM 10
Fun fact: Since Hayden Fry arrived in Iowa City in 1979, Michigan is 7-5-1 at Iowa, which is better than I would have guessed.
Is this game going to be particularly boring, or do you not enjoy low-scoring games?
I found NW riveting, as every drive was important if for nothing else than field position. We all knew it would come down to a field goal.
Are you offering a Free MGoT-Shirt if I guess to correct score?
Oh, you aren't?
Then no, I will not participate!
We score 10
Wow...I'm the voice of hope in this thread? Who would guess that would happen.
We've won 41 out 54 all time against these guys. And we've got a better team and...wait for it....wait for it.....
We are going to win. Not telling you to put away the grain alcohol...it works the same in a celebration!
Until this thing turns into a game-within-a-game between Hoke and Ferentz to see who can most accurately replicate Lloydball.
Hall of Fame coach Lloyd Carr had a record of 122-40 (75.3%) and was 81-23 (77.9%) in B1G play. He won 5 B1G titles and 1 National Championship.
Whoever replicates LloydBall more accurately will win the game. A great number of their games, really.
Coach Carr, with all due respect, frustrated me more than any other M coach. The plodding first half followed by seeming desperation due to time running out to open up the game and try some other stuff farther down the field, made me hurl more objects than any time since. It was a good strategy which obviously won many games.
However, I believe the Faustian Senator Tressel recognized this pattern, planned to play against the plod in the first half, and planned for a seemingly entirely new team to take the field in the second half. Lloyd wasn't changing, Tressel wasn't changing, and they were going to own us for a very long time.
The frustration for me was if we could play that well late in the game, why not simply do that from the start, get some points early so it wasn't such a nail biter at the end. Its possible that my youth and lack of patience contributed to the emotional state.
I also believe that the top of the plateau so to speak for Michigan's program (sort of our psychological "status" locally and nationwide) was when we were knocking off Cooper with regularity. The slow decline started when Tressel arrived, and we fell into a 3 year chuckhole. Im excited about what I see these days. We all want "NOW" in this day and age, I think the gears of Michigan are building up inertia again. We will be a well-oiled machine soon. Give it time.
It would be interesting to see how much the drop off has been on an annual basis between Carr's teams and the past 7 teams or so in terms of NFL draft picks - the Henne/Long/Hart group was the last team that seemed to have a lot of NFL talent on it. Carr frustrated me not so much for what you describe but it always seemed we had so much talent but always dropped 1-2 games a year we had no right to. Moeller too but for whatever reason the offense seemed more exciting under Moeller or maybe my memory is just telling me that. I bet in the Carr era we had just as much, if not more, NFL talent on this team than any SEC team. OSU at the time as well, had a ton but they have had little drop off post Cooper.
Hence with all that talent the 3-4 loss Carr season merry go round reall was frustrating.
I think Tressel's "dominance" of Carr is maybe more illusion than reality. Their teams played games that were generally very close in terms of points. When games come down to one or two plays the teams are near a statistical tie. If you flip a coin 50 times you will find that you can get runs of 5 heads or 7 tails. I think Carr just got an unlucky roll of the dice. Anyone who understands probabilities realizes that a series of close wins does not equal dominance. Carr was a much better coach than people give him credit. He actually pulled off manball; I rememeber how he smashed Weis and ND by punching them in the face. Punched Tebow in the face too.
your username is logic? Hilarious. St Tress lost what, 1 game out of 7 to Lloyd? (stats from memory only) That is domination.
Also, We didn't beat Tebow with "manball", we opened up with a passing spread for once and it destroyed Florida. That's why I respect all that Carr did for Michigan but wonder what could have been if he was just a little bit more progressive on offense.
Serious question- other than Mattison which coaches at UM do you feel are superior to Iowa. Do you truly think Ferentz is worse than Hoke? Based on what criteria? Ability to withstand weather conditions without a jacket? Ability to be disengaged from offensive play calling? Ability to clap repeatedly all game? When you evaluate coaches you have to take into account their circumstances - any coach staff at UM has massive advantage over all but 6-7 staffs in the country. Ferentz at UM would be Carr 2.0, which right now is above what Hoke is putting out other than on the recrooooooting trail.
Do you think (insert random coach) is worse than Borges. Do you think the Iowa OL coach is worse than Funk? Do you think the Iowa LB coach - he who has sent multiple good players to the NFL and has 3 studs out there right now - is worse than Manning who has had all of 3/4 of a year at UM?
Iowa doesnt recruit anywhere near what UM does and has a bevy of NFL players. That goes to coaching. Yeah Ferentz is overpaid but is a solid top 25-30 coach in the country coach and usually has a pretty good staff which at a school like Iowa is necessary since you need to coach 2-3 stars up at a school like that. We have a gold rush of 4 stars here to work with. And getting the same results in terms of NFL product...i.e. not that much.
Iowa is putting out just as many NFL players as UM is right now and with a lot less raw material to work with. Yeah they are not all stars but most of UM's "stars"* in the NFL are from the Carr era... (Brady, Woodson, Woodley, Avant, Hall, Harris, Long, Manningham). Martin and Graham are the 2 main NFL dudes of the past half decade.... with all apologies to Will Campbell and Denard. [insert disclaimer here about how it is all Rich Rod's fault and we will send a Brink's truck full of NFL stars into the NFL in 2 yrs once Hoke's classes mature]
*I am using a loose interpretation of NFL star.
|Pat Angerer||Indianapolis Colts||Linebacker|
|Jonathan Babineaux||Atlanta Falcons||Defensive Tackle|
|Bryan Bulaga||Green Bay Packers||Offensive Tackle|
|Scott Chandler||Buffalo Bills||Tight End|
|Dallas Clark||Baltimore Ravens||Tight End|
|Adrian Clayborn||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||Defensive End|
|Colin Cole||Carolina Panthers||Defensive Tackle|
|Mike Daniels||Green Bay Packers||Defensive End|
|Bradley Fletcher||Philadelphia Eagles||Cornerback|
|Adam Gettis||Washington Redskins||Guard|
|Charles Godfrey||Carolina Panthers||Safety|
|Shonn Greene||Tennessee Titans||Running Back|
|Chad Greenway||Minnesota Vikings||Linebacker|
|Micah Hyde||Green Bay Packers||Cornerback|
|Karl Klug||Tennessee Titans||Defensive End|
|Marvin McNutt||Carolina Panthers||Wide Receiver|
|Brandon Myers||New York Giants||Tight End|
|Shaun Prater||Minnesota Vikings||Cornerback|
|Riley Reiff||Detroit Lions||Offensive Tackle|
|Allen Reisner||Jacksonville Jaguars||Tight End|
|Ricky Stanzi||Jacksonville Jaguars||Quarterback|
|Jeff Tarpinian||Houston Texans||Linebacker|
|Matt Tobin||Philadelphia Eagles||Offensive Tackle|
|Julian Vandervelde||Philadelphia Eagles||Center|
|Marshal Yanda||Baltimore Ravens||Guard|
|Markus Zusevics||New England Patriots||
I'll try and give a serious answer (and where is SC, Reshp 1 & Reader 71 when i need them) First off I dont think players in the pro's is a good comparison cause Hoke has yet to have any of his recruits even get to the draft. I cant blame or credit him for what he inherted from Rich. But let's look at a side by side comparison of the staff and I'll tell you what I think:
Hoke V Ferentz: I'd take Hoke. Better game manager IMO and not afraid to take chances. That being said Ferentz ALWAYS seems to break tendencies against us but I'd still take Hoke.
Davis V Borges: Believe it or not I'd take Borges. As vocal as I've been re dumping Borges, Davis is exponentially worse IMO. Davis as a Michigan OC would make me do bad things to furniture and defensiveless childrent I'm afraid.
Ferentz V Funk: Don't know. As poor as I think Funk has done this year I'm always VERY suspect of nepotism in the coaching ranks. David Shula anyone?
Parker V Mattison: Is this even a question? This is like that Monty Python bit when the boxer fought a 10 year old girl. Mattison all day long in a landslide.
So yes....I think we an advantadge in coaching and not a small one.
I dont think NFL players is a great comparison either as AGAIN Texas, Alabama, LSU, USC, OSU, ND, UM et al have a massive advantage in terms of raw material. By nature they should send out way more NFL players than Iowa, Minnesota, Arkansas, Arizona State, or Boston College. My point there was we have not exactly been churning out NFL product.
I would say player development from August to November and unit development is a much better gauge. On that front there are some questions, especially on one side of the ball. Anyhow, Iowa went into Columbus and had a fine showing, giving OSU all it could handle for 3 quarters despite significant shortfalls in personnel vs OSU. UM on the other hand recruits in OSU's vicinity year in and year out, for decades. So you can see where it goes from there.
p.s. re: Mattison, I think he is a very good coach but I am not on the "great" bandwagon and don't think it is no brainer as you do. Iowa has a top 10 nationally ranked defense which is benefiting from playing in the Big 10, as does every defense that gets to play this pretty bad conference's offenses week in and week out. Is is pretty difficult to do better than top 10 with the type of talent Iowa gets...so I'd say they have coached those kids up very well. Maybe they'd be top 5 with UM's talent.... to that end what would Iowa's defense need to rank nationally for you to not say "is it even a question?" 3? 2? 4? (and yes this is just one year, and Iowa's defense is not normally ranked this high but they are usually solid without a lot of playmakers).
Good points all. What about the balance of the comparison of the coaches? Would you take Iowa's over ours - if so, why?
To me it seems like we are superior. I'd be interested in hearing if you agree.
I would take MSU's staff over ours based on player development. Seeing what they can do with 2-3 stars makes me dream of what they could do with UM's talent pool. And we'd be a tough as nails team who beat people into the ground, even if we lose occassionally - I'm fine with that.
I think Iowa's staff is a wash, although I cannot tell yet on Hoke vs Ferentz. If Ferentz wasnt so boring and conservative I'd strongly consider it. Hoke talks about physicality but I don't see it, even on the defense which doesn't lay the wood like old UM teams did. They are not "that young" on defense so its no longer a good excuse.
I liked the Hoke of 2011 and 2012 in terms of game management but not 2012's. Also this is Iowa's first year back in the top 10 on defense since Parker retired. If Norm Parker was still on Iowa I'd give it clearly to Iowa as he is every bit the coordinator Mattison is - Iowa was top 10 in 2008, 2009, 2010 on defense and just missed in 2007. I didnt look back further than that. Not sure yet on their current D coordinator but I think Ferentz impacts their D like Dantonio does for MSU no matter the coordinator.
When I look at any staff I think "what would they do with a constant flood of 4 stars that UM gets". So comparing apples to oranges is difficult - UM has talent only about 7-10 programs get every year, so comparing anything other than those 7-10 staffs to UM's gets tricky. It is my belief any half competent staff who cares about both sides of the ball (something RR failed to do on D) can generate 9-3 seasons indefinitely at UM with the talent it gets. But it takes a top end staff to start doing what OSU has done under Tressel and Urban and that is churn out 0-1-2 loss seasons as your norm. I don't see it with the current staff and no my expectation is not 30 years of 1 loss seasons. But I'd like to see a 5-6 year period every 20 years of being a serious national contender which just about every other major program has had the past 2 decades. Instead we have become Notre Dame with 1 or 2 glorious years every 20 in between a lot of mediocre seasons of 4-5 losses.
My worry with this staff is simply that it will recruit good enough to keep us at that plateau where we have the typical 9-3, 8-4 season year in and year out for a long time and that appears to be "good enough" for a lot of the fan base who have been worn down, and apparently the administration. Meanwhile, even MSU is doing better than that 3 of the past 4 years (incl this one).
This staff's first full class are sophomores and redshirt freshman, so it's going to be tough to judge them with these players.
i would love ferentz to coach our o-line; sr would be great but i would take jr.
I'm right here!
I agree with MGrowOld (?!) on all accounts.
Hoke is strong precisely where Ferentz is weak -- game theory decisions. I think both are good coaches, but neither is an Xs and Os guy. Everyone will hate this but Hoke plays to win whereas Ferentz plays not to lose. We can't only use that trope on our guys.
Borges v Davis - The only reason any of us knows anything about Borges is because he's ours. If Davis was ours, we would have the same gripes, and some new ones. Davis uses under center almost exclusively. He uses the strech-inside zone combo ad his base. He uses a lot of spacing and curl-flat combos, rarely goes deep, and generally focuses more on horizontal spread than vertical. In short, he'd be public enemy #1 around here.
Mattison is a better defensive coordinator than almost anyone in college football.
I refuse to comment on position coaches because I have no basis for doing so. But our key staff is better, or at least more MGoBlog approved.
It stands to be the derpiest of all of our derpfests.
Iowa - 17
M - 6
Road game versus physical team with imposing linebackers? Pain.
A typical Michigan fest - offense looking like MSU offense circa early September 2013. Flailing and causing Borges-hate. Iowa LBs will have something like 35 tackles among them. UM D holding Iowa at bay much of the game, doing its normal bending until it does its normal breaking on that one drive that everyone after the game wil say "yeah the defense really held in there except for that one drive where Iowa marched the ball down the field 74 yards on 14 plays..." In some ways these are almost identical defenses with almost identical coaching philosophies on D. But Iowa offense can do some exotic things such as.... "rushing".
Difference from other UM games - Iowa's front 4 usually does not get that much pressure on QB and doesn't have a bad ass like Gregory or Calhoun on it.
Similar to other UM games - against this OL that doesn't seen to matter. See Akron or UConn.
Taylor Lewan will bleed from forehead by end of 1st Q.
i.e. It's Groundhog day at Michigan.
Michigan 20, Iowa 17
10 screen passes minimum and Gardner somehow still eats pressure on all 10 of those plays.
By definition, the QB eats pressure on a screen.
Michigan scores one of those things called "torchclowns" but IN REGULATION YOU GUYS! In fact, I'll go out on a limb and say they do it TWO times. Iowa scores a touchdown, on their last drive before halftime (because that ALWAYS happens). Michigan gets two field goals, and gives Iowa two interceptions that result in a field goal and a pick 6. The rest of the time the offenses are derping around for relatively short drives (and several 3 and outs) that result in punts.
Final score: 20-17 Michigan
EDIT: I forgot to add, Kirk Ferentz will definitely punt from the Michigan 40 yard line on 4th and 5 at some point.
That win last week was huge for our psyche and confidence we can win on the road. I'm going with my heart over my head
16-13. Good guys.
What has really changed between last week and this week? Sure, Green and Smith provided a little production, but the offense was still largely ineffective. Iowa has a very good defense and is tough as hell at home. Plus they got embarrassed by Gardner last year and haven;t forgotten. I see more scuffling and struggling. UGLY football coming our way. Our D is good enough to keep us in the game and Iowa's O is vanilla and risk averse. 17-9 loss which sets up a HUGE underdog spread for next week.
I predict the Mediocrity Bowl to go something like this:
fg - UM
TD iowa before half
turnover on downs iowa
(23-20 UM FINAL)
watch it happen. or not.
punts, I feel.
That's just like your opinion, man...
If it goes that way I will be very afraid of you.
Afraid? You should be buying me beers to give you lottery numbers...
These are dark times indeed with 75% of the board predicting doom. This is obviously hard to argue against this year. Still i will go with Michigan 17 -13, Iowa not big on blitzing will help Devin stay composed.
wait till you see next week
Michigan 18-17 on six fgs. Last one with time running out and Dileo doing the centipede.
The human centipede? Whatever it takes to win.
Urban is a Midwestern guy.
Losers and winners talk about execution. A lot. Its the basis of practice and film study. Ever been in on a film session? They will talk for 5 minutes about line splits and length of one's first step. They will watch every snap only looking at the QBs feet, then rewind it and watch the rest.
I know these coaches suck, but be real.
Not that I want to belabor the point, but isn't Big Boy Alabama coached by a guy who coached at MSU, and who still plays dinosaur football? Same with LSU, coached by a former Michigan player and assitant?
Come to think of it, isn't Stanford still playing Dino-ball, as you put it?
Maybe there isn't that much that's all new and shiny in football, except that finding players is location, location and location...
That said, we aren't very good this year, that is for sure.
This post is perfection my friend.
24-13 Michigan. Fitz starts, but Green comes off the bench and at least doubles Fitz's yardage.
Low scoring game in Evanston, and NW picks up their first win in the B1G.
He done party too much. NW's only chance is Sparty turning the ball over six times.
I like the way you think. I've been having the same feeling myself.
The matchup stats from TeamRankings are reasonably comparable (although the shaded ones worry me a little) although they give us only about a 30% estimated win probability.
|Rush Play %||57.06%||57.38%|
|Pass Play %||42.94%||42.62%|
|3D Conv %||38.73%||47.10%|
|RZ Scoring %||83.72%||80.00%|
|Opp Completion %||54.57%||58.57%|
|Opp 3D Conv %||39.49%||37.86%|
|Opp RZ Scoring %||85.71%||87.50%|
I predict disapointment no matter what the score. We did not dissapoint against Central Michigan, Notre Dame, and Minnesota. We did in the other 7 games...even the ones we won. So, win or lose I'm pretty certain we will be disapointed with the result, playcalling, execution, development, blah blah blah. Win or lose we will be disapointed. And, it's almost impossible to predict if we will win. A flip of the coin may just as effective of a guessing strategy as any we could come up with from our giant brains.
much like it did against Minnesota except Iowa has no running QB threat. I think Michigan wins 19-6
The defense comes up big as it continues to show it is actually very good. The offense does enough to win. 24 - 13 Michigan. (Green goes for 80, Fitz for 60 and the rest is history.
And Michigan defense control's Iowa's running game better than expected.
Michigan 27 - Iowa 17
I agree with the consensus here: a boring game with Michigan coming out on top, 19-13 with four Brendan Gibbons field goals.
Yes: more Green and Smith, less Fitz.
No: I think Bosch remains
Neither. More of the same. Let's say "piddling"
Final Score: Iowa 20 UM 13
I hate to be so negative, but these last three years on the road have been dreadful (Maybe Illinois in 2011 was a good game? Even that NU win in 2011 was ugly for 3 quarters). Uconn, PSU, MSU, NU... terrible offensive games this year.
If we had some big play burst, I'd feel a bit better, but Iowa is pretty good at keeping plays in front of them, and I just don't see us consistently moving the chains enough to put together multiple 8-12 play TD drives.
Hope I'm wrong, and would love a couple of forced TOs.
How often does a team with a national fan base go to a team with a limited fan base and win with a point spread of -6?
Whenever the prestigious program is struggling and the smaller program is doing well.
This happened all the time from 2008-2010 at Michigan. We were dogs at home a number of times, which is even more rare.
Most people who bet are not fans of either team. The size of our fanbase is not enough to drive the spread by itself.
70 posts and not one prediction from Clubber Lang?
easy win, 31-10.
which then gets everyone's hopes up for OSU ...
Michigan winning this game. Look for our rush offense to be stuffed. We can't win at Iowa.
Ferentz bucks trend and gets aggressive in a spot where he probably should just Dumb Punt™. Michigan's defense holds. We get in the end zone thrice.
I think the line showed definite improvement last week with the change in blocking scheme to extended doubles of the defensive tackles - I expect that we will get decent rushing yardage but no huge plays in the run game. Iowa is going to blitz, which is against what they normally do - this should leave the TEs open so it's up to Gardner to be looking for Butt on every play.
On the other side, I just don't see Iowa's offense being able to do much at all against this defense. They're going to have a couple Norse saga drives, but that's it.
I'm thinking M 14 Iowa 13, with the 2nd touchdown coming on the last drive of the game when Borges decides that no huddle is a thing.
I predict very cold hands.
30: It’s the number of times Devin Gardner has been sacked. No Michigan quarterback in the BCS era has been sacked more times in a season.
Sorry - that is why we lose and continue to until rectifed.
Why? No one respects the run; Garner makes mistakes when its even a near sack; we freeking play action 2 out of every three plays it seems (opponents simply ignore that -- as you all know)
I think GERGian principles keep Iowa from getting effective pressure on Gardner which will allow Michigan to dink and dunk and also open up the run game a bit. We'll likely struggle keeping drives alive against their bend, don't break defense with a few negative plays here and there getting us behind the sticks, but we'll put up some FGs and get a touchdown somewhere in there.
On the other side of the ball, we'll stop the run but give up frustrating 3rd and longs as Iowa also moves the ball but eventually falls victim to our own bend, don't break defense.
It'll be close and a critical turnover decides a low scoring game. Gun to my head, I predict Michigan coughs up an INT because you can't play with fire forever without getting burned.
Iowa 23 - Michigan 16
A low scoring boring affair in which Mattison does a good job holding Iowa to almost nothing and Borges outsmarts himself into unproductive offensive oblivion. 10-9 Iowa.
We may need some special teams help or a couple turnovers to win this one guys. I'll be interested to see if we can pick up where we left off running the ball last week. Here's to hoping!
That is more points than we have scored in last three games (in regulation)
Aren't we due for the out of nowhere well-called, well-planned Borges gameplan? You know, the one that explains his career longevity and begs the question why we don't see that more often? Haven't seen one of those since week 2 and we know it's not coming next week.
Accordingly: The sweet taste of victory against NW envigorates an offense newly energized by the thrill of (finally) successfully running the ball with two young bruising backs now beginning to find their groove in the college game. Borges observes this during the week and composes a brilliant gameplan balancing power & zone runs, short passing, play action and spreading the ball everywhere to Gallon, Funcess, Butt and even Chesson. Iowa tries some of the MSU and Nebraska defensive gameplan stuff but Borges has finally adjusted. We roll 27 - 13.
Borges is given credit for finally adapting his game plan, infuriating his detractors and giving hope to his supporters before another OSU stinker. Most confusing season ever concludes.
I hate all the pessimism on this board, so I'm not even going to share my prediction that Michigan loses 17-13.
Edit: disregard, put this in the wrong thread
One of Sam Webb's locks of the week is the young backs combining for 100+ yards rushing, so there's that.
if Gardner plays well, we win. Simple as that. My faith in that happening is very slim though
Going out on a big ass limb to say Michigan plays surprisingly well and wins 35 to 17
In three overtimes.
I think we should play Northwestern again.
Pretty skeptical, no 98 looks pretty bad under center. I can see iowa actually catching 5 of them picks northwestern left on the field, iowa 27 m10