Predicting Wins/Loses

Submitted by Chi-Blue on

So this internet thing has really become quite boring in the last month or 2 if you are a Michigan Football fan. Our recruiting has been for all practical purposes wrapped up for a while so let us turn our attention to the actual 2012 football season.

Almost every pundant/talking head thinks that we really lucked out last year with our record. most think a drop is almost certain what do you think? In a sentence or two give the reason why we win or lose.

Schedule -

  • Sept. 1, Alabama (Dallas)
  • Sept. 8, Air Force
  • Sept. 15, Massachusetts
  • Sept. 22, @ Notre Dame
  • Sept. 29 Wifeday/apple picking in my household!
  • Oct. 6, @ Purdue
  • Oct. 13, Illinois
  • Oct. 20, Michigan State
  • Oct. 27, @ Nebraska
  • Nov. 3, @ Minnesota
  • Nov. 10, Northwestern
  • Nov. 17, Iowa
  • Nov. 24, @ Ohio State

Alabama - LOSE - They have a great offensive line returning, we have at best an unproven D-line that I think will be much better as the season progesses baring injury. Alabama will be able to run the ball. For us to have a chance Denard needs to play one of the best games of his career both running and passing.

Air Force - WIN - Closer than we may think but yes we win.

Massachusetts - WIN.

Notre Dame - WIN - They have a good front 7 but no back 4 and Denard takes advantage. After 3 games our Defensive line shows improvement against a quality opponent. Also Notre Dame is a little drained after a big overtime win the week before in East Lansing!

Purdue - WIN - This game is scary to me. Dont know why but we still win . . . closer than expected though.

Illinois - WIN - Illinois is going to a brand new system under a brand new coach. Illinois will be coming off a beatdown the week before at Wisconsin, and a lose to Penn State the week previous to Wiscy. Dont worry though . . . Indiana is up next.

Michigan State - Win - The ling nightmare is over and Little Brother is put into place. I think that if this game was at East Lansing we lose a close one. That be ing said MSU has a great Defense but Andrew Maxwell struggles as our defense takes another step up and Denard plays very well. This is the big turn for our Defensive line as they really play well and the back 7 shine as well. Pipkins in at starter after this game.

Nebraska - LOSE - So between this and MSU I think we lose one. Lincoln is a tough place to play and I'm sick of Dantonio so Nebraska it is.

Minnesota - WIN - They are better than last year but not ready to compete.

Northwestern - WIN - Alot like last years game but we have a running game this time. They make some plays on the offensive side of the ball but cant defend us.

Iowa - WIN - I kind of think that the lack of recruiting well, even by their standards, catches up with them this year. Their QB is the real deal but they dont have a ton after that.

Ohio State - WIN - This one is really a push for me. WE will be ready but this is their everything as they cant go bowling. Their Defense will be good and I think Braxton Miller is going to look like Denard did his Freshman year. They go as Braxton goes. I hate them so I say we win.

Yup, 10-2 is what I have which would put us in the BIG TEN title game against Wiscy.

Bowling, I have no idea???

Just something to talk about that has to do less with Penn State and more with football. What are your thoughts on our record this season?

justingoblue

July 19th, 2012 at 11:27 PM ^

I think if USC goes to the title game, we have a good shot against either Oregon or Stanford for the Rose Bowl title (both could be in the top-fourteen at seasons end). If we're playing an opponent from outside the Pac, who knows, but I think we could beat any of the Pac teams besides USC this season.

turtleboy

July 19th, 2012 at 11:13 PM ^

I agree on a lot of your premise, but I honestly think between ND, MSU, and Nebraska that we have a better shot at losing to ND this year. Last years State and ND games were against a transitional team 132, but they were very close games, while we completely dominated Nebraska on offense, defense, and special teams last year. Since then they've lost their top 3 defenders... I think it's finally time we break the short streak against sparty with our offense finally figured out, but it's possible that after a loss to Alabama and 2 relatively easy games against Air Force and UMass that ND could catch us and finally break the streak.

Phil Brickma

July 19th, 2012 at 11:36 PM ^

M improved drastically since the UTL game. ND is pretty much the same. Assuming M doesn't take too much of a step back from Team 132 to 133, I think M has the advantage. ND lost some key pieces, too.

I have heard the horrors of Lincoln, but is it more frightening than Taylor Martinez's throwing motion? Not so sure...

Logan88

July 20th, 2012 at 7:35 AM ^

Agreed.

Losses to:

Alabama -- take the Tide even with the double-digit point spread

Notre Dame -- they finally end their losing streak to UM in a close game

Nebraska -- I don't think the Cornshuckers are all that great but they will win a close game in Lincoln (note: Of the four losses I am predicting this is the one I am least sure about)

OSU -- last year was an aberration, folks, the Bucks are still a very good team; especially on defense

I think that will get UM into the Outback Bowl against S. Carolina, Florida or Arkansas.

SEAL Fan

July 19th, 2012 at 11:18 PM ^

9-3.   Sparty is going to prove to be a difficult task.  They'll be a top 5 defense nationally this season and I think that Maxwell might surprise some during his first year.

Bryan

July 19th, 2012 at 11:22 PM ^

But Lincoln might be a tough place to play later in the year. I have no idea how deep Nebraska is this year.

And who knows with OSU, they'll be better sure, but no one knows how much.

Chester Cheetah

July 19th, 2012 at 11:26 PM ^

8-4 or 9-3.  Losses to Alabama, and three/two of ND, Nebraska, MSU, Iowa.  I'm hoping we at least beat MSU this year.  Their defense will still be very good, but will take a small step back due to losing Jerel Worthy.  Maxwell remains a question mark and even though he physically is better compared to Cousins, he has yet to manage an entire game or season for that matter.  Also, their wide receiving corp is very talented but young and not nearly as experienced as what Cousins had to work with.

Yooper

July 19th, 2012 at 11:28 PM ^

Think about it, if you add a bowl win Hoke is 22-4 with the other guy's players. It would be an amazing coaching accomplishment.

MichGoBlue858

July 19th, 2012 at 11:27 PM ^

I think we go 9-3 this year. Loss to Alabama, lose one of Nebraska/MSU, lose one of Iowa/OSU. Going 9-3 this year would be a very good season with this schedule and it would give me much hope for the future. 

Phil Brickma

July 19th, 2012 at 11:31 PM ^

I think 9-3 is the safe bet. Alabama is a huge favorite, MSU will be very tough, and between OSU, ND and Nebraska on the road, I think Michigan will be lucky if they win more than two of those five. Still, with this schedule and with how much we lost from last year, 9-3 is a very solid season.

Honestly, it sucks to say this, but I think OSU and MSU will be slightly favored against M this year. I think they can beat Nebraska and ND, but MSU and OSU will be very difficult games.

Also, book it now, the MSU game is Denard's Heisman coming-out party. Huge rivalry game, lots of media attention, top-ranked defense. Last-minute Heisman moment.

BILG

July 19th, 2012 at 11:40 PM ^

Denard will have the most electrifying year college football has seen since Reggie Bush's Heisman year, except Denard will get to keep his trophy.

Denard will be unreal as a senior. After an entire year to digest the Borges offense, along with an O-line and recievers that went through the system change as well, they will be a machine. Denard will not get as many called rushes, but I expect him to break contain and scramble more often, which could mean an even higher YPC average.

The passing game should actually click this year with Denard and Borges actually speaking the same language, Denard understanding the routes, system, and timing better, and Al understanding Denard's strengths and weaknesses better.

Michigan 24 Alabama 17

Robinson: Passing 16-25 245 YDS 2 TD 1 INT Rushing 15 Carries 108 Yards

Fitz: 23 Carries 98 Yards 

 

Season: 13-1

Run the table in the regular season, Win Big Ten Championship, lose in the National Title Game to U$C.

turtleboy

July 20th, 2012 at 12:31 AM ^

Nah, USC will stumble this year with a young offensive line and front 7, (last year they allowed 4 teams to put up a combined 175 points on them) while Oklahoma has no real obstacle to an undefeated season in the improved (cupcake) Big12.

Tater

July 19th, 2012 at 11:45 PM ^

I think they lose to Bama and then run the table, due to a greatly improved Denard Robinson and the fact that every tough opponent other than Bama has at least one "fatal flaw."  They barely miss the BCS "Championship" game, though, whose berths go to Bama and USC.  

The bright spot, though, is that they play in the Rose Bowl against a team that not only isn't the Pac 12's best team, but also isn't from LA.  This negates the usual "home field advantage" that happens when USC or UCLA plays in the game, and Michigan wins handily.  

 

Blue since birth

July 19th, 2012 at 11:56 PM ^

Their defense will be tough. But I agree many are overestimating them. The only games that worry me (more than my baseline worry) are Alabama and ND. I think Bama should be a slight favorite, ND a toss up and we SHOULD win every other regular season game (doesn't mean we will).

Blue since birth

July 20th, 2012 at 4:36 AM ^

This isn't 2011 Alabama v 2011 Michigan.

They lose a bunch of starters and regardless of their talent no one really knows what they be like this year... Especially game one. I'm guessing they have a down year (relatively). I'm also guessing Denard's passing improves this year and we're a better team overall.

... And I still say they should be a slight favorite. I'm just not in awe of their -defending champs from the SEC- status like most seem to be. It means nothing come game time.

denardogasm

July 19th, 2012 at 11:49 PM ^

Nitpick: If Pipkins is starting by the halfway point that will mean our D-line did not step up against ND because BWC is going to be anchoring the line.  I sort of understand the pessimism about Big Will given his track record but with a full year and a half under Hoke and Mattison and all the positive talk about him this offseason I think we should be a little more optimistic.  I think he's gonna step up.  It's going to take a monstrous showing from a true freshman DT to start over him, because at the very least BWC is going to be solid.

11-1 regular season is doable.

WichitanWolverine

July 19th, 2012 at 11:49 PM ^

I think we go 9-3 regular season with losses to Bama, ND, and probably Ohio.



Bama is simply much better on paper right now. In a few years we'll be able to take on anyone, but not just yet.



I honestly feel we lose to ND simply because we have it coming after stealing wins the past 3 years. I'll glady steal another one, though...



MSU will definitely have a good defense but I just have a hunch Denard is going to be cranked up and have a performance similar to ND '10. I think he's got a real bad taste in his mouth when it comes to Sparty and with a senior game at home, Denard's going to go off.



We'll win the B1G and head to Pasadena, which is a realistic goal to me, but Bama is simply too good for us to run the table.

BlueDragon

July 19th, 2012 at 11:49 PM ^

Losses to Bama, Nebraska, and one of State/Ohio, or both. Beating at least one school with the word "State" prominently in the title and advertising will make me happy.

Danwillhor

July 19th, 2012 at 11:56 PM ^

Every game but the weakest is "Denard or bust".

My guaranteed loss game is: Bama
Most Likely loss games: msu, Neb, osu
Possible upset games: Air Force, NW, Iowa
Guaranteed win: Minny

I'll only say that, by definition, I have us marked for one loss and one win. The rest are push games and potential upsets given an injury or shit Denard game. My personal opinion is that we have an equal or possibly better overall team but struggle to 8 wins (regular season). Dont think we see our eventual BIG, long-term turnaround start for another 2 years.

denardogasm

July 20th, 2012 at 12:18 AM ^

 

And Iowa sucks.  Just because we lost last year doesn't mean we lose this year, at home.  I would put both of those in the win column.  Also I highly doubt we lose to all of the top 4 teams on the schedule.  I'd understand if you said we get 8 wins for sure and struggle to 9 or 10 but as it stands I think you're being a little overly pessimistic.  If that's how you get through the long heat of the offseason though have at it.

Danwillhor

July 20th, 2012 at 9:19 AM ^

Oh, I have never claimed to not be damaged by the late Carr/RR years! Haha. Used to see us winning every game. Now, pessimistic is an absolutely right on description. I don't think we lose every game but I find myself looking for how it can happen as opposed to when I looked for reasons why we shouldn't. Will take dominance for me to return to that mindset, sadly. That or a QB who can hit single covered WRs in a way other than jump balls into triple coverage, haha.