Predicting the B1G - After 2 Weeks
Last week I tried to predict the final B1G standings accounting for the uneven schedule and placing all 12 teams into specific tiers.
http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/mbb-predicting-b1g
After two weeks of play, we have a little more data and I think some of the assumptions are up for debate. The first is that I put Penn State as a tier 4 team along with Nebraska. After PSU failed to protect its home court against both Indiana and Minnesota (tier 3 teams), I think it's time to downgrade PSU to tier 5. Things look grim for them. So, going back to the beginning of the year, here is what the model predicted for final standings with the original and new assumptions.
| Initial Assumptions | With PSU Downgrade | |||||
| Wisconsin | 16 | 2 | Wisconsin | 16 | 2 | |
| Ohio State | 15 | 3 | Ohio State | 15 | 3 | |
| Michigan State | 14 | 4 | Michigan State | 14 | 4 | |
| Iowa | 11 | 7 | Iowa | 11 | 7 | |
| Michigan | 10 | 8 | Michigan | 10 | 8 | |
| Minnesota | 8 | 10 | Minnesota | 9 | 9 | |
| Illinois | 7 | 11 | Illinois | 8 | 10 | |
| Indiana | 7 | 11 | Indiana | 8 | 10 | |
| Purdue | 7 | 11 | Purdue | 8 | 10 | |
| Nebraska | 6 | 12 | Nebraska | 6 | 12 | |
| Penn State | 5 | 13 | Northwestern | 2 | 16 | |
| Northwestern | 2 | 16 | Penn State | 1 | 17 |
Basically, the difference is that PSU plummets and the mid range teams get an extra win by assuming they will now win at PSU.
Using the new (PSU downgraded model) there have been three games in the first two weeks that have broken the assumptions.
| Date | Score | New Records |
| 2-Jan | Mich 63, @ Minn 60 | Mich 11-7, Minn 8-10 |
| 12-Jan | Iowa 84, @OSU 74 | Iowa 12-6, OSU 14-4 |
| 12-Jan | (@)NW 49, Illinois 43 | NW 3-15, Illinois 7-11 |
I think it's still up for debate where Michigan and Minnesota fall into things, but yesterday's two upsets were definitely surprising. Taking these results into account, my new projection for the final B1G standings is...
| 13-Jan | ||
| Wisconsin | 16 | 2 |
| Ohio State | 14 | 4 |
| Michigan State | 14 | 4 |
| Iowa | 12 | 6 |
| Michigan | 11 | 7 |
| Minnesota | 8 | 10 |
| Indiana | 8 | 10 |
| Purdue | 8 | 10 |
| Illinois | 7 | 11 |
| Nebraska | 6 | 12 |
| Northwestern | 3 | 15 |
| Penn State | 1 | 17 |
Some thoughts going forward.
- Someone is going to have to go into Madison and beat Wisconsin, or they are going to ride that schedule to a title. Hoping a tier 3 team (Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue) will be able to beat them is pretty wishful thinking.
- Nebraska may be in consideration to move up a tier at some point. A 10 point road loss at Iowa looks pretty good. They also hung with Purdue on the road and obviously almost beat UM. They are dangerous.
- Illinois is in danger of a downgrade. OT win at home against Indiana, demolished on the road by Wisconsin, and losing to NW is a dangerous way to start the league season.
- Michigan not getting road games at NW or PSU will make it hard to get to the top.
January 13th, 2014 at 8:25 AM ^
MSU is definitely a better team when reasonably healthy. If anything ever happens to Craft, or if he has a bad night, they can lose to pretty much anyone. I see your top six as definite tournament teams and then a bigger gap to the Indianas of the b10.
January 13th, 2014 at 8:26 AM ^
http://annarborsports.wordpress.com/2014/01/12/more-to-come-11214/
I'm sticking with my guesses though
January 13th, 2014 at 8:43 AM ^
I dont see Wisconsin getting 6 losses. They only play MSU and Ohio once and both games being at home.
January 13th, 2014 at 9:43 AM ^
I pretty much agree with the projected top five in the conference if not the projected records necessarily. Wisconsin, Michigan State, Iowa, Ohio State Michigan - perhaps roughly in that order - will top the conference, in my opinion right now. That being said, looking at schedules, I have to think that each of Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio State and Michigan State at least have 3-4 games where I would think the outcome might be in question if not a straight up projected loss right now.
January 13th, 2014 at 10:01 AM ^
How do you see M going 14-4? I read your blog but didn't see the rationale. I love it, don't get me wrong, and it could happen, but I don't see the reasoning. That's a lofty expectation with McGary out (and I see you made that prediction after his injury was announced).
January 13th, 2014 at 11:26 AM ^
Honestly, I was optimistic. In reality, I suppose I have UM on a similar plane as Iowa - just an imaginary half-tier below MSU/OSU/Wisconsin. But chaos happens in a deep conference. My first go through the schedule I had MSU and OSU with 17 and 16 wins...then I adjusted for entropy in a way I rationalized.
I used the same idea as Kilgore here (love the Kurt Vonnegut reference, by the way) in my article - talking about the importance of holding home-court in conference play: http://annarborsports.wordpress.com/2014/01/02/michigan-mens-basketball…
As you can see I adjusted Michigan's best-case scenario up from the initial expectation and predicted they would hit that expectation after they beat Minnesota on the road(just because it worked for me last year? haha crossing my fingers).
I also wrote about the McGary loss earlier if you do some poking around on the site.
January 13th, 2014 at 10:42 AM ^
Wisconsin is too good and has too easy of a schedule to finish with 6 losses. I think Michigan is just below Wisconsin and Michigan State in the pecking order, alongside OSU and Iowa. Unless we get extremely lucky/unlucky, we'll finish somewhere between 3-5
January 13th, 2014 at 11:15 AM ^
Maybe unjustifiably, because I felt I needed to give Michigan and Indiana a few more wins.. Wisconsin has been able to get out and beat teams with high scores this year while still being able to go back to "old-school Wisconsin-ing" successfully against good teams like Virginia and Florida.
My first glance over the schedule I had a huge divide between the teams at the top and the teams at the bottom, but as past Big Ten standings verify, chaos always happens - and I pegged Wisconsin as the victim of it this year, to provide extra wins for teams like Minnesota or Illinois.
January 13th, 2014 at 8:27 AM ^
January 13th, 2014 at 8:29 AM ^
January 13th, 2014 at 11:21 AM ^
That's what I was thinking... John Beilein will pave the way somehow. Hopefully just like how Bo Ryan's teams always finish top 4.
January 13th, 2014 at 8:40 AM ^
Is there any indications yet whether Mitch will be back this season? If he is, I'd put money on us making a late run and having a change in the conference tourny.
January 13th, 2014 at 8:52 AM ^
January 13th, 2014 at 9:07 AM ^
January 13th, 2014 at 8:57 AM ^
January 13th, 2014 at 9:32 AM ^
I agree with your range for UM's finish. It's interesting to think about whether it's better to come in 4th or 5th. 4th gets you the BTT bye, but 5th gives you another "easy" win. I think I'd take 4th as you're then playing the 5th place team who just played the day before.
January 13th, 2014 at 9:09 AM ^
January 13th, 2014 at 9:14 AM ^
The predictions looks pretty much correct. I would flip-flop a few. Top (4) would be
- 1. Wisconsin
- 2. MSU
- 3. Iowa
- 4. OSU
I don't think Michigan really has a horse in the race. The top 4 teams I listed play at a different level then us -- especially with defense and rebounding. I think we have the best chance to beat OSU of the 4, but I wouldn't be surprised if we got swept.
January 13th, 2014 at 9:15 AM ^
Iowa looks really good. In fact, I think I'd take them over Wisconsin on a neutral court. I think they're gonna give most of the top teams fits like they did with OSU. I wouldn't be surprised to see them contend for a title. They just looked a lot more focused and driven than OSU did.
January 13th, 2014 at 11:12 AM ^
Agree - I'm very surprised at how so many seem to see Iowa as a six- or seven-loss team. They look to me like a serious title contender.
January 13th, 2014 at 9:43 AM ^
I could also see Ohio slipping to a bit worse than 12-4. Not clear who their closer is right now, and they are going to be in lots of games going forward where they need someone to step up and deliver late. They cannot expect Craft to be that guy offensively on a regular basis.
January 13th, 2014 at 9:44 AM ^
Wisconsin lucked into the easiest schedule possible in the B1G, missing both OSU and MSU on the road. They should be favored to win every game left on their schedule except maybe Iowa. Doesn't mean they will as even great teams usually drop a game or 2, but they have the easiest schedule left of any of the top teams.
January 13th, 2014 at 9:57 AM ^
as Bo Ryan is the devil himself.
January 13th, 2014 at 9:46 AM ^
January 13th, 2014 at 9:47 AM ^
January 13th, 2014 at 9:47 AM ^
goes to Minnesota next; they might well lose there. We are not going to be a dominant squad this year, but everyone is vulnerable--see MSU at home against Minny yesterday.
With five players in double figures the other night, we are not an easy team to figure out offensively. If we can figure out how to play a little D I think that we can snag a few extra wins.
Iowa at home week after next looms as a huge game--got to have that win.
January 13th, 2014 at 10:08 AM ^
You're right about Defense . . . Dylan at UMhoops is harping on how bad our defense is right now. I have a bit of hope because Beilein is one of the best coaches in terms of improvement over the course of the year.
Another real plus for Michigan is time . . . the learning curve and improvement of Walton and Irvin should be much higher than most players in the Big10. (Mathlete or someone can pull the stats, but the two biggest places for improvement are during the freshman year and between the freshman and sophomore years. After that, growth is much more gradual.) What I'm saying, though, is that Walton and Irvin have already grown tremendously this season, and haven't peaked yet. If Walton can figure out the point, Michigan could be on the high side, maybe 12 - 6 or 13 - 5.
Last thing that I can't predict is our 3 point shooting. Irvin and Caris seem awfully streaky. But if Irvin and LeVert along with Stauskas, GRIII, Albrecht and Walton get really hot beyond the arc, we could beat anyone in the conference. I'm not saying this will happen, but it could happen. Literally six of our guys have the potential to light it up, making life much easier for Horton and Morgan vs. Wisc, MSU, & Ohio.
January 13th, 2014 at 10:38 AM ^
Speaking of defense is anybody else surprsed we havent gone more zone so far this year defensively? I thought for sure coach B was going to make the switch at Nebraska after about the 27th straight successfull pick and roll but we never did.
January 13th, 2014 at 1:09 PM ^
Horford but no worries.
Definitely for MSU but possibly for those other teams I've heard it said multiple times how you have to stretch those teams out and extend their defenses.
Michigan can do this better than most teams potentially as you said so we've got that working.
January 13th, 2014 at 9:54 AM ^
January 13th, 2014 at 10:00 AM ^
I hate Wisconsin basketball
January 13th, 2014 at 10:10 AM ^
I hope the rules changes (blocking, charging,) cause them to lose some games. But I'm not too optimistic.
January 13th, 2014 at 10:17 AM ^
January 13th, 2014 at 5:54 PM ^
I think yeoman(?) disproved that one pretty thoroughly. I at least look forward to the very likely event that their season ends in a loss; I will drink their tears whenever their season ends
January 13th, 2014 at 10:12 AM ^
is there a mathematical method to your predictions or just gut?
January 13th, 2014 at 10:27 AM ^
I explained it in more detal in the original post, but it's a little of both.
Basically, I used gut / non-conference performance to put the teams into 5 tiers.
Tier 1: MSU, OSU, Wisconsin
Tier 2: Iowa, Michigan
Tier 3: Minnesota, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois
Tier 4: PSU, Nebraska
Tier 5: Northwestern
Then I added the assumption that the home team would win all games unless the visitor was two or more tiers better. (So, Indiana should be able to beat Iowa at home, but not Michigan State). Then I went through everyone's schedules and came up with a record based on that assumption.
As we learn more and see more games, we might have to shift the tiers (like I already did by moving PSU down to 5). I think an argument could be made for moving Illinois down to 4, moving OSU down to 2, and / or moving Iowa up to 1. We'll see.
EDIT: There's no actual math. Just assumptions and rules.
January 13th, 2014 at 11:13 AM ^
You should move Iowa to the top tier. They've already beaten OSU on the road and very nearly won at Wisconsin.
January 13th, 2014 at 10:28 AM ^
I would be very suprised if Iowa goes 11-7 in B1G.
| y-Vee Big Four Classic | |||
| 12/07/13 |
vs. Drake  |
Des Moines, Iowa | W, 83-66 |
 |
|||
| 12/09/13 |
vs. Fairleigh Dickinson |
Iowa City, Iowa | W, 92-59 |
| 12/13/13 |
at Iowa State (Iowa Corn Cy-Hawk Series) |
Ames, Iowa | L, 85-82 |
| 12/22/13 |
vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff |
Iowa City, Iowa | W, 86-61 |
| 12/31/13 |
vs. Nebraska * |
Iowa City, Iowa | W, 67-57 |
| 01/05/14 |
at Wisconsin * |
Madison, Wisc. | L, 75-71 |
| 01/09/14 |
vs. Northwestern * |
Iowa City, Iowa | W, 93-67 |
| 01/12/14 |
at Ohio State * |
Columbus, Ohio | W, 84-74 |
| 01/19/14 |
vs. Minnesota * |
Iowa City, Iowa | 12:00 PM |
| 01/22/14 |
at Michigan * |
Ann Arbor, Mich. | 6:00 PM |
| 01/25/14 |
at Northwestern * |
Evanston, Ill. | 11:00 AM |
| 01/28/14 |
vs. Michigan State * |
Iowa City, Iowa | 6:00 PM |
| 02/01/14 |
at Illinois * |
Champaign, Ill. | 6:30 PM |
| 02/04/14 |
vs. Ohio State * |
Iowa City, Iowa | 6:00 PM |
| 02/08/14 |
vs. Michigan * |
Iowa City, Iowa | 1:00 PM |
| 02/15/14 |
at Penn State * |
University Park, Pa. | 12:00 PM |
| 02/18/14 |
at Indiana * |
Bloomington, Ind. | 8:00 PM |
| 02/22/14 |
vs. Wisconsin * |
Iowa City, Iowa | 11:00 AM |
| 02/25/14 |
at Minnesota * |
Minneapolis, Minn. | 6:00 PM |
| 03/01/14 |
vs. Purdue * |
Iowa City, Iowa | 7:15 PM |
| 03/02/14 |
vs. Purdue * |
Iowa City, Iowa | 3:00 PM |
| 03/06/14 |
at Michigan State * |
East Lansing, Mich. | 8:00 PM |
| 03/08/14 |
vs. Illinois * |
Iowa City, Iowa | 7:30 PM |
| 03/09/14 |
vs. Illinois * |
||
January 13th, 2014 at 10:31 AM ^
I assume the duplicate listings for vs. Purdue (3/1 and 3/2) and vs. Illinois (3/8 and 3/9) at the end of the schedule actually mean those games will be in one slot or the other, but the decision as to which hasn't been made yet?
January 13th, 2014 at 10:58 AM ^
Those games will be an either/or, dictated by television. This mostly happens when there are potential games that CBS/ESPN want to poach that weekend, which would change where these games would slot in. Michigan had the same thing on last year's schedule for the home finale against Indiana.
January 13th, 2014 at 10:50 AM ^
The win at OSU would take them to 12-6. The six losses are...
@ Wisconsin (already happened)
@ Michigan
@ Illinois
@ Minnesota
@ Indiana
@ Michigan State
January 13th, 2014 at 11:18 AM ^
That seems like a worst-case scenario for Iowa. They are better than Illinois/Minnesota/Indiana, and quite possibly better than us. I think our home game against them is a tossup.
January 13th, 2014 at 10:36 AM ^
I think the title race is between Wisconsin and MSU, with the Badgers having the edge due to an easier schedule. I would say Iowa and OSU are next, with Michigan being able to join them if we start to play some defense. But I'm not optimistic of that happening, so I think we're solidly 5th.
OSU is held back because they don't have a consistent go to scorer. Ross is capable of lighting it up, but he also hasn't been incredibly efficient this year and will go cold too frequently. Craft, as we know, is not a great offensive player in terms of scoring. Their defense will win them alot of games but if you get into a high scoring game, they're going to struggle to win those because they don't have the offensive options. If we played them twice, I think we could sweep them. They depend on rebounding and defense and getting out in transition. If hang onto the ball and hit our open shots when we get them, I'd see us winning. But we only play them once in Columbus, which sucks. I'm much more nervous about Iowa because they can rebound and score. Those games are going to be tough for us and I wouldn't be surprised if we get swept by the Hawkeyes.
January 13th, 2014 at 10:52 AM ^
One more thing about OSU is that they don't really seem to be that driven. A perfect example from yesterday's game - two or three times after late game turnovers, an OSU guy (Ross' turnover near mid-court is the one that immediately comes to mind) stood whining and frustrated instead of hustling back on defense. Watching bits and pieces of their games, this seems to be a theme. Lots of talent but not very much heart.
January 13th, 2014 at 10:44 AM ^
January 13th, 2014 at 10:47 AM ^
I see you posted this morning. I see you clearly didn't look at the B1G standings after yesterday's results.
Ohio State 3 losses on the year? They already have 2 losses. No. Fucking. Way.
January 13th, 2014 at 10:58 AM ^
I accounted for yesterday and moved them to 14-4. Yesterday was bad, but then again they took MSU to overtime on the road, so maybe Iowa is just that good. We'll see.
January 13th, 2014 at 12:30 PM ^
January 13th, 2014 at 10:51 AM ^
I find it facinating that we seem to bring out the best in our opponents free throw shooting for some reason. Arizona goes 14-15 in a two point victory in Ann Arbor yet is shooting only 68% for the year. A normal game from them and we win. Nebraska shoots 11-12 against us and then yesterday shoots 12-18 and they shoot on average 67% for the year. Again, a normal game and we win by four or five.
I wish I knew why the site of our uniforms causes other teams to concentrate better at the line. It's not like games against us count for extra!
January 13th, 2014 at 11:05 AM ^
I posted something similiar in the Nebraska game recap thread and someone very informatively responded with the stat that opponents shoot 73.2% at the line against us (318th in the country, average is 69.4%). I really wish I understood why that seems to happen too. My best guess would be that it's a little bad luck and the completely unsubstantiated guess that we tend to foul guards more often than big men.