UM victory. Then again it could be 13-10 or 43-40...who friggen knows. But, I do think it will be a narrow victory.
spoiler alert: i linked this
UM victory. Then again it could be 13-10 or 43-40...who friggen knows. But, I do think it will be a narrow victory.
Gardner 2 TDs passing. 2 Gibbons FGs.
STAEE 1 fluky TD early, 2 FGs before half, 1 in the second half as Mattison makes the right adjustments.
I think our pass/scramble attack against their defense is about a push. Their offense relies mostly on power running which is a good matchup for us.
I don't see us running the ball well at all. And I foresee a close, "smashmouth" game for about 2 1/2 qtrs, when we are down 13-3 or 17-7, and we start to open it up. Then Gardner is running around and running around and running around.
I think MSU's defense is so strong, and their Offense will do just enough (plus Michigan rarely gets TFL's, so expect to see a lot of third and 3's, third and 4's, third and 5's) and State can convert those.
I hope i am WAY OFF BASE, but i see a MSU 24-13 win or something like that.
Michigan would not have won in South Bend either
You must have not seen our team play on the road. There is a lot of reality-based evidence out there speaking to our road woes.
Off top of my head without much thought Good Guys 55 Bad Guys 4
I really think Al is going to open up the playbook but he will call off the dogs at halftime and Michigan will only get a couple field goals in the second half.
Come on, will we win? Give me something serious....
I'm sorry for the confusion, I'll clarify. Good Guys are Michigan. We will win.
Gibbons kicks seven field goals.
He'll hit seven from outside 40 yards, and he'll miss two from inside 25 yards. After the game he will admit that he's been thinking about redheads.
"JUST WIN"-Charles Woodson
Michigan. Go Blue!
13-9 and a victory for the team with Wings.
Sadly, a great Norfleet return might be the least probable thing you predict.
This is highly unrealistic. At least make an honest guess!
4-3, good guys. Book it.
Staee scores two defensive TDs.
This is a laugher, but not for the good guys.
35-10 MSU with 2 defensive TD scores. High variance Gardner plus road game plus legit defense is just a recipe for disaster.
Because I have to agree. As much trash as I've been talking already to MSU fans, yeah I started right after the IU game, there is this thing in the back of my mind that keeps saying, no way, not going to happen. D is too good, at home, MD marks this game on calender more than BH due to Ohio, run game has come into shape....too many reasons why for MSU and not enough reasons why not. Only thing I can legitimately say is if no turnovers, then maybe....
Here's are some matchup stats to add to the discussion (via TeamRankings):
|Rush Play %||61.28%||57.28%|
|Pass Play %||38.72%||42.72%|
|3D Conv %||48.96%||46.02%|
|RZ Scoring %||84.85%||77.78%|
|Opp Completion %||53.14%||46.96%|
|Opp 3D Conv %||39.81%||28.70%|
|Opp RZ Scoring %||80.00%||80.00%|
To make this like, 75% more hlepful would be to break it down by home vs. road. Especially with this UM team.
Mich 24 - MSU 13.
Countess scores on a pick 6
looks like ur predicting 5 defensive TD's
20-13 Sparty...sorry I just dont trust a Hoke team on the road yet, hoping he proves me wrong but our road games we have been really flat and in a shell.
MSU 27 Mich 16
I just don't see us winning this one.
And I'm usually wrong so I am really going to try to drive this home this week.
State 20, Michigan 6
I don't trust our O-Line, the interior specifically, at all against MSU and their double a-gap blitz. I don't forsee us getting much of a running game going, and MSU will be able to just sit on our passing game and defend that. Road Gardner means some boneheaded mistakes, so when we're not struggling to move the ball on the ground I expect a few turnovers out of Gardner.
As for our defense, I think we shut MSU's O down relatively well. They have shown some signs of life against Illinois and Indiana (I know I know, awful teams but still) so I see them getting one or two long drives that result in points. The rest will come off defensive TD's or short field off of turnovers.
Michigan continues to crap the bed on the road. People keep saying, "just wait until 2015 when Hoke has his guyz". Brian has to shut the site down for a couple of days.
Have a weird feeling, Michigan is gonna have to play great to win, the oline is gonna have to be spectacular. I like the fact that most aren't giving us much a chance, I really think the B1G is bad, I just feel we win 21-10, close most of the way, we score late and put it away. Most spartan fans are claiming a win and we might as well not show up. I hate state.
My preseason prediction was 9-3, including a loss to MSU. Haven't seen anything yet to change that guess.
(If TL:DR, I say 21-17)
...In the last 43 years of the rivalry, the team that runs the ball better has won 40 times. With that said, Michigan has found ways to run the ball on good rushing defenses, like Notre Dame, to a respectable level. On the other side, MSU has quietly produced their best rushing offense in years, ranking in the top 40. Both rush defenses are in the top ten, but MSU's is on another level there. The strategy has to be to set up the run with middle of the field passing. Force the LB's to respect the middle of the field, thus having them on their heels a bit, and Michigan can carve out some ground yardage. On defense, it should be noted that Greg Mattison has had an extra week to draw up something for a pretty pedestrian MSU offense. One more week to draw up blitzes and incorporate Jake Ryan into the fray. I suspect Michigan manufactures enough points and shuts them down, mostly.
We should just forget about running the ball in this game.
Michigan 11 MSU 15 sounds about right.
23-16 good guys.
Him? Against Michigan State? In East Lansing?
I predict two turnovers for him, but we'll win a close one. I've never attended a game in which Michigan lost and I don't intend to start now.
You're not a real man until you've attended a gut-wrenching, nutsack-punching Michigan loss in person.
UTL, The Game '11, Northwestern '12, Akron.
I prefer to think that it is my sheer manly aura that forced those games to go the way they did.
It's also worth noting that the year I left the state for four years was when App St happened, and I came back in 2011, so clearly my presence is necessary.
App State for one. Most recently Penn State. Nothing quite like seeing that in person. Fortunately the good ones (Braylonfest + Manningham against Penn State) make you come back for more.
My hope is a bye week improves Gardner's decision making and our playcalling. My hope is we have been saving our real identity to come out for this stretch of games that begins with MSU. My hope is we use the pass to set up the run. My hope is our DBs play much tighter on MSU's WRs that can't beat us deep. My hope is JMFR after two more weeks gets more snaps and makes big impact and creates turnovers. My hope is Norfleet finally gives us the lift we need with a huge TD return. My hope is we get our first big road win of Hoke's tenure.
My fear is Gardner makes bad decisions in hostile enviroments again. My fear is we still run first, get stuffed, then get stuck in bad 3rd down positions. My fear is we give MSU's offense just enough time to build some confidence that slowly takes over the game as their defense shuts us down completely. My fear is JMFR just is not enough. My fear is Norfleet makes too many moves trying to make something happen and gives us bad field position too often. My fear is we lose another tough road game and look like complete crap while doing it, then everyone on the board goes nuts and calls for everyone's head.
The real outcome...no idea.
AAAMICHFAN, hell yeah. I like the way you said that there. I am putting my energy with yours. 31-10 Michigan.
Third eye sees this one and makes it so.
Brady Hoke is walking through Da'Shawn Hand's high school parking lot after his visit Friday night, and there on the ground near his rental car is a brown paper bag with something inside it glowing through the bag eerily. It is a pulsating light in a deep blue hue. Brady picks up the bag and looks inside it. The deep blue light exits the bag and consumes Hoke's entire being. Lo and behold, it is pure, uncut swag.
The swag penetrates Hoke to his core.
Fast forward to the team meeting to start the final week of preparation on Monday, 10/28. Hoke stands at the podium waiting for the team to finish settling in. He stands there in silence until the team notices his posture and every mouth shuts up. Hoke continues to stand there in silence. Seconds pass. No words. Everybody in the room is paying rapt attention.
'Men, the past is just that. Over. From this fucking second forward, we are kicking ass and taking prisoners. We are going into Spartan stadium and taking that bitch over. Damn X's and O's. I want scalps. I want blood. I want their tears. I want their hearts. I want their goddamn lunch money.
AM I CLEAR?'
Yeah... that's probably not what's actually gonna happen.
Sparty Brahs 21
Michigan 126 Sparty 3 (because we feel sorry for them and give them a pitty field goal)
I'm not confident really. Could go either way.
Hoke hasn't won any big games on the road. If Borges keeps the offense aggressive we have a chance but I think the road woes continue with a turnover fest.
Michigan - 28
MSU - 27
Unfort MSU 27- UM 20. I expect Borges to be adament we run the ball into the backside of Bosch/Glasgow/Magnuson for 3/4 of the game, before "realizing" it won't work and then opening up the playbook in the fourth quarter where UM finally looks desperate and aggressive. MSU D line is not great but Calhoun v Lewan will be a great matchup and they have 6 year seniros like Hoover up against Bosch who is like 5 years younger (gulp) - last week's mirage of the OL will be exposed against a good but not great DL and a great LB unit. MSU wont let our RBs run so another 25 carries for 20 yards type of game excl Devin Gardner who should go off. I expect 1 INT from Gardner - if it is not on our half of field it would be good. Maybe 1 fumble. He plays good for 2/3rds of the game but the other third is enough to hurt. MSU plays press defense so those windows of opportunity for Gallon and Funchess will be much smaller, leading to a pick (hopefully not 2). MSU is vulnerable over the top without safety help for their corners so I expect a few very big plays in the pass game for large chunks but MSU stiffens up inside their own 20 and causes some FGs rather than TDs.
MSU will run on us. MSU will pass protect - their OL has been lights out in pass protect. If we bend don't break we have a chance, if we break inside the red zone it could be larger margin than I predict. MSU will get yards despite the laughter about their offense - UM has an adequate defense, that is all. We will pass on them and get some huge plays. We will have some turnovers on an intermediate route somewhere which Devin struggles with. Their punter is dominant and will cause us to say "for gosh sakes" a few times. Gibbons is struggling big time which is also an issue. Cook will be ok - not as great as Illinois or Indiana, not as bad as Purdue. All they need is a half way decent QB with that defense, not a world beater. And we have yet to show we can beat anyone relevant on the road in 3 years under Hoke. Heart says UM, brain says MSU. If Devin of ND shows up the entire game, we have a chance but its literally all up to one player on offense which is asking a lot. I feel more confident at home vs Nebraska than this game.
Michigan is a tale of two teams this seasn, if you guys haven't already noticed. Because of this, I have two predictions
In this case, Borges runs a sound game with a solid mixture of I-Formation with more shotgun and doesn't force it up Staee's throats. Toussaint has a decent game with between 50-75 yards on 15 carries, and the O- line provides decent pass protection and allows Toussaint to run... As for DG, in this case, he only turns the ball over once or twice, doesn't get happy feet, and has faith in his receivers to make plays. Defense (mainly secondary and line) needs to turn the corner here, and this is a perfect opportunity for them to gain a little momentum and confidence as a unit.
On the other hand, the game as we have seen Michigan against Akron, UCONN, and PSU:
In this case, Borges doesn't understand how to call a different play, DG has between 2-5 TOs and the line gets obliterated. Defense plays a sound game not near where it should be for a game against State.
I would love to go ahead and say that option 1 will be the most likely to happen, but this team is way too inconsistent for me to have complete faith in that. This team needs to turn the corner this week if they want to compete for a B1G Title...
Michigan 6 - Staee 5. 'Nuff said.
I think the Michigan State defense will force a few tournovers and mostly keep the Michigan offense in check. I predict Michigan's defense to play well despite having their backs against the wall a couple times.
Is no damn way Borges is dumb enough to run I formation sets up the middle, no way. Not saying it won't happen once or twice, but I think after psu hoke or Brandon told him to open it up more, he's not that dumb.
I think the documentary "27 for 27" would indicate otherwise
20-13. This feels like one of those games where each team will get a defensive TD/short field situation. But if MSU gets any substantive lead, watch out.
Thriller..... UM wins...
Michigan 27 - MSU 24
Michigan's offense has averaged about 12 more PPG than their opponents defense allows, so 24. MSU's D holds opponents to about 13 less PPG than their season average, so 29. Therefore, Michigan should score 26.5 (27) points.
Michigan's defense has averaged holding opponents to almost exactly their season scoring average, so 30. MSU's offense has averaged scoring 6 points less per game than their opponents season average, so 21. Therefore MSU should score 25.5 (rounded down to 24 although could round up to 27 as well).
This scientific method is no doubt 100% accurate. Do not question the method.
We haven't turned the corner in winning on the road and won't against a big time rival. I predict that our rushing woes hit an all time low and Gardner turns the ball over 3 times against MSU's aggressive D. Our D performs great but is overshadowed by the MSU defense scoring a touchdown on a Gardner fumble.
I guess you can say I'm a debbie downer, but I just have a bad feeling about this one. Of course, l'd love to be wrong.
Shilique Calhoun sacks Gardner for an 80 yard loss after Dennis Norfleet recommends he try the quintuple reverse to evade tacklers
This made me "lol"
I'm not confident in Michigan at all. Hoke's teams have done horrible on the road, Gardner is very mistake prone. I think MSU by 3.
Hoke teams have been totally dependant on where we've played. 19-0 at home and our best road win is.....Northwestern 2 years ago? I think we've yet to beat a ranked team on the road under Hoke so history certainly is not in our favor here
I hope I'm wrong.
Beginning of the year I thought 9-3 most likely. After ND and the way Sparty started the year, I thought 10-2 or even 11-1. I said that we'd for sure lose one of OSU, @NW, @MSU and a 50% chance we'd lose @PSU, Neb, @Iowa, so either 10-2 or 11-1. Alas, with the way we've played since ND, I'm thinking it much more likely that we lose two out of OSU, @NW, and @MSU. So, yeah, 9-3 with losses at Sparty, PSU, and home to Ohio. Le sigh.
But I hope I'm underestimating us.
Best case scenario is Coach Borgess moves the ball around, Devin and company cause no turnovers and the Defense is stout and does not allow the big play. This being the case I can't see this being nothing but a close game; they are the 'spit at thee with my last breath' kind of guys and Coach Dantonio is the lead spitter.
They are going to be ready to play; I can't see any kind of blowout against those guys this year.
Best case scenario: UM 34 - MSU 17
Unfortunate losing scenario: MSU 36 UM 33 3OT
Most probable scenario: UM 27 - MSU 24
This comes from same dude who got blasted for saying we'd go to the final four right after we got ran in East Lansing back in February. I was right then, I'll be right again.
I think it'll be a little higher scoring than people think - 27-23, Michigan.
I'm expecting severe weather - what looks like hail will actually be swirling debris. We turn the ball over early leading to an early MSU lead. We'll struggle to find any consistency on offense, but manage to put together a late first half TD for our only points. More of the same in the second half.... We shank a punt to give MSU easy points. Devin arm-punts to seal the game late in the 4th. Dantonio's smilescowl lasts for a year...
Hoke and Co. have given me no reason to trust them to win road games, much less big road games. And this is going to be in an incredibly hostile environment against an incredibly aggressive, stingy defense, coached by a man who's sole purpose for waking up every morning is to game plan for and beat Michigan.
I think we do have a legitimate chance to win this game since we won't have to do much to keep up with MSU's offense. They've benefitted a lot from their defense consistently giving them great field position to work with. But right now, I see a 27-13 kind of game in favor of MSU. I just think that our O-Line will not be able to hold up at all, either in run blocking or pass protection, and Borges' gameplan, whatever it might be, will be nullified because Gardner will be spending most of the day running for his life. Their secondary is good enough in 1-on-1 situations to where MSU's linebackers will likely be free to blitz all day long. Gardner will also have 1-2 picks, and it wouldn't shock me if 1 of those was returned for a TD.
If we want to win, then the OL will need to be able to give Gardner at least enough time to survey the field, and Borges will have to get creative and stop being so damn stubborn with the I-Formation. And both of those are big ifs.
I think the defense will play well enough against their offense to keep us in the game, but its just going to be extremely difficult to move the ball against MSU. They've been waiting for this game all year. As we all know, this is their Super Bowl, and they're going to play like it, too.
I'm staying off of here until Saturday. Half our fanbase has already conceded the game before we even play it.
we're even the underdogs on our own blog. I love it! I cant wait for Saturday. I feel like we are going to prove something!
If this game was in Ann Arbor I would say it would be a toss up. However to this point the coaching staff has given us no reason to believe that Michigan can win a road game against a rival.
I know what you're saying, but what has MSU done that scares you?
Dantonio has sold his soul to beat Michigan. You know there is one person on his staff that concentrates entirely on Michigan.
Yeah, they always play us tough. Before D'Antonio, too.
But he did put a cold Maxwell in the game to run a two-minute drill @ ND, which is as stupid and irrational as anything our staff has ever done. And their offense is almost as bad as their defense is good, so I don't see us ever being out of the game. We could lose, I just understand all the negativity.
We are not playing against our expectations, we are playing State.
MSU fumbles once but forces 2 turnovers. Langford rushes for 120 and controls the time of possession. Grinds it out in the 4th.
MSU 27 - M 13
EDIT: posted this BEFORE reading russale2012's post above.
17-10 State =/
M 56 sparty 0
Because how awesome would that be?
Michigan 28 MSU 18
I see the game going a lot like last year. State won't be able to move the ball but will find there way to a touchdown and a field goal somehow. We'll play it tight to avoid turnovers and win 13-10.
As long as we are -1 or better in turnover margin, I see us winning. I just don't see their offense moving the ball against our D.
Hate to say it but I think Sparty wins this. And that makes me a sad panda :(
MSU - 20
UM - 13
I feel like this game reminds me of Akron in so many ways:
1. 28-24 sounds about right (maybe 24-20), it will be close
2. Sadly, Devin gives them a 7 point gift just when the game looks to be going Michigan's way
3. State has a chance to win it late but their O can't pull it off and the D holds
4. I will question why the O goes MANBALL for large stretches of the game... only to open it up for 3-4 drives and get scores... then go back to MANBALL
You heard it here first.
Sparty wins 24-10.
M plays like a 4-8 team on the road.
I'll happily join the other naysayers at the Borges All You Can Eat Crow Buffett should my prediction prove to be wrong.
I doubt that. Unless we win by 30. Even then, there'll be a few unforgivable -1 yard runs out of the I that we'll have a problem with.
There would only be one naysayer at the buffet. So far only MGrowOld has been man enough to give Borges props when due.
Less than 600 total combined yards in the game. Michigan becomes the first team to rush for 100 yards against State's D.
Michigan can win this game, even win it handily, but only if they win the turnover battle. This year, I don't see that happening.
To go to the championship game, M has to win. It's up to Taylor and the senior leaders to will this team to win. Borges doesn't have to work around Denard's passing skills this time and Sparty just can't focus on stopping Denard to win. If Devin plays well, we win. Funchess may be the key. Also means the O line is prepared for the double A gap blitz. Line is bigger this year, so just might hold if they don't get freaked out by the blitzes. First team to 21 points wins.
I've been pretty negative lately, so I'll be positive because I'm in a good mood after the Lions game:
Michigan 17 vs MSU 13
Michigan 27. MSU 17 (both tds on offense)
Battle of field position: Michigan 17, MSU 13.
Michigan 23, MSU 21. Sparty takes a 21-0 lead into halftime, only to lose on a FG that splits the uprights just as the clock hits 0:00. Furniture salesmen in EL have a happy Sunday as Sparty fans flock to their stores to replace the couches they burned on Saturday night.
I foresee our offense getting suffocated mainly because our OL is terrible.
If this game was in Ann Arbor I would predict a 31-17 game, where Michigan wins somewhat comfortably. However Hoke has clearly not been as good on the road so far in his short Michigan career. Taking the road game into acount i'm going to predict Michigan wins 31-17.
17-14 Uof M. I figured when ND played MSU it would be about the same game when we played.
Cook and Gardner will tell the tale in this one. Maybe Jake Ryan --- our last best hope --- can pressure Cook into bad throws or even an INT or two. Maybe the D-line and LBs can control MSU's running game. But if Gardner gives MSU a short field on one or more occasions, lights out. M24, MS 17.
and stumbles through three quarters. Then Borges opens the play book a little and we come back to win it on a FG 16-13.
It all comes down to Gardner and turnovers.. also the main stat that has nearly decided the last 30 games between us.. rushing.. whoever has had the most rushing yards that team has won the last 33 out of 36..
For that reason we lose this game.. also I was appauled when I saw we are 98th in pass defense.. I never thought mattison would let it get that bad.. it is basically RR pass defense all over again
20 - 17 UM win. Thank you.
to whup these sillypants mofos. I think this is a particularly difficult one to predict, because if we get down early, and the team gets down on itself, it also could swing wild in the other direction.
Usually these are tight affairs, though, and we're playing in their house. Michigan 24, MSU 23, our AP rankings reversed.
Michigan plays well on both sides of the ball especially on D, given the conventional set that state runs. I think Borges opens it up like the 1st half of OSU last yr. Ultimately we win by 10+.
Let's see, as Drew Dileo is kryptonite for michigan state, he will run, pass, return kickoff, return punt, intercept a pass, and return a fumble each for a touchdown. He will also kick a field goal from his own hold.
Michigan state scores 3 times on defense, because they can't do anything else.
45 - 21
"You're enjoying your day, everything's going your way, and along comes......"
MSU 27, Michigan 19
Turnovers, manball fail part duh, huddling time suck, and lot's o' field goals rule the day.
to prepare for this game!!! IF AL can't get this right then he needs to go!!! This is a BIG GAME for Michigan. We have lost 4 of the last 5. We better be ready,Michigan wins IF devin has less than 1 turnover. My score is 27-20.GO BLUE!!!
Looks like it....
This game is a MUST win if we want to have a chance at the B1G title. Even if we win, we probably still have to win out to make the B1G game, since MSU probably won't lose again.
I think our offense will score 17-24 points. The questions are: Can our defense stop MSU? Will we give them turnovers that lead to short fields or defensive TDs?
I don't know, man. We have a pretty solid D but no game-breakers. On offense, I think we'll only score if we use the Indiana/ND gameplan and DG plays like he did against ND. That's a pretty high risk offense, but I'd rather lose playing that way than lose playing conservative, I-form football we KNOW we're no good at.
So here's my uneasy prediction: MSU 20 U-M 21
#8 offense vs. #3 defense (pts for and against)
#63 defense vs. #66 offense
This game is going to be incredibly long and boring. First one to score a TD wins.
As an outsider who has watched both teams multiple times, I think the Sparty D will be too much. Gardner will have a few turnovers that puts the UM D in bad spots and Sparty finds a way to score enough.
MSU - 20
UM - 10
The UM OL has not been consistent enough to give me any hope they can keep Sparty out of the backfield. Even if they max-protect the whole game, Sparty still gets pressure. And I don't think Gallon/Funchess can beat that D by themselves. I think Fitz ends up with >50 yards. Gardner will have some good scrambles, though, and scores UM's TD. The UM D has a good day, but too many short fields are the difference. Also, Gardner throws a pick-six.
5-0 MSU. Al Borges runs power-I inexplicably and MSU's field goal comes off a turnover.