Predict the OSU Line

Submitted by alum96 on

As we have little to look forward to other than parlor games, post your prediction for the OSU line.  Also if anyone would be so kind to post, what was the OSU-UM line in 2008 and 2009?  If not for those years I fear this will be the largest home dog UM has ever been in modern history.   And potentially the largest dog, road or away, in modern history (until 2014's squad strolls into Columbus).

My prediction is the line will open at 15.5-17 (although I believe the actual score differential will be far more vast).    I still have yet to wrap my mind around the possibility of UM being a 20 point home dog but I suppose it could be.  

Assuming UM can somehow someway put up 13-17 pts on a "decent, not great" OSU D, even a 17 pt line is only a 30-34 OSU offensive outburst which seems "conservative" considering rivalry blood lust + Urban going for BCS title game (now a 3 team race).  I had some faint home for the rush defense vs Hyde prior to Iowa game to keep the game sorta close in 1st half, but if Ross and or Morgan are out for the week, the spread might be covered by the halftime show.

EDIT: Found a Bleacher Report story showing OSU was favored by 19 in Columbus in 2008.  The internets seem to have revealed the 2009 game in AA had a line of 12ish.

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Brandon_L

November 24th, 2013 at 6:28 AM ^

By the end of the week the line will -18.5. This should be the largest predicted margin in Big House history. So if Ohio decides to come into this half hearted we will have one of the biggest upsets of all time. I don't know about all of you but Ohio is beatable. There secondary is not great. There are holes. I predict the ultimate cripple fight between Borges and Fickle.

Joined: 11/23/2009

MGoPoints: 2467

buckeyejonross

November 24th, 2013 at 8:06 PM ^

Everyone else manages to interact with me like a normal human being. Most people understand that folks aren't immediately bad people due to where they attend college. You, however, seem to be one of those who can't seperate fandom form being a person. I've been here for three years. I don't troll. I don't kick you when you're down. What do you care? I enjoy learning about Michigan, where else is there to go?

Joined: 07/27/2010

MGoPoints: 13808

miatamich

November 24th, 2013 at 6:31 AM ^

My first thought after yesterday's game was that OSU would be a 20-21 point favorite. Look for a lot of $$$ going on OSU, which will increase the line. Pretty sad stuff for a so-called rivalry game.

Joined: 06/21/2009

MGoPoints: 564

alum96

November 24th, 2013 at 6:50 AM ^

My initial response to you would be: Iowa LB > OSU LB.  Iowa front 4 > OSU front 4 in rush defense while OSU front 4 better at getting pressue on QB vs Iowa.  Then I remembered Northwestern and Nebraska's pedestrian defenses (aside from Gregory on Neb) and what they did to this offense, and that makes all comparisons moot. 

Main thing to root for is a lack of injury on offense....and seeing if we can tally a TD on offense.

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82394

Brandon_L

November 24th, 2013 at 6:53 AM ^

Anyone awake? I'm tired of talking to myself. My daughter woke me and made me turn cartoons on. I am ready to argue about how awesome this team 134 is. The good news is they don't quit on all of us like we quit on them. We also sit here and talk about selling our tickets and allowing buckeyes in to completely demoralize the team. How about we just shut the god damn program down all together? This fair weather shit never ends with this fan base. Hell I live in Columbus and I see the fair weather down here. A few years back people were bitching about tress a{\rtf1\ansi\ansicpg1252 {\fonttbl} {\colortbl;\red255\green255\blue255;} }n his conservative approach. Not really a good comparison but the buckeyes are due for some Tears of sadness or whatever the hell it's called. If we don't beat them by score we have to play this tough and not quit. I hope the team doesn't act like the fan base and throw in the towel. It is what it is. Now I'm not going to throw out the 90s and say look at what we did then. We need to support the team and not be pussies. Remember what Bo said winning can make you soft and Ohio may come in a little soft after beating the likes of Purdue, Indiana, Illinois easily. The talent is on this team and if we support it them it increases their odds. Now get up and go pick a fight with biggest son a bitch you can and fight like hell to not die. Show some god damn heart and quit bitching.

Joined: 11/23/2009

MGoPoints: 2467

Don

November 24th, 2013 at 7:12 AM ^

It's too bad that posting board bravado won't be enough to hold OSU 26 points below their season average in conference games.

Whatever, what you're doing right now as a father—spending time with your kid—is more important than anything the Michigan football team will do this year, or any year.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 148278

Brandon_L

November 24th, 2013 at 7:17 AM ^

Yea you are right. Let's just jump now since the ledge is right here in front of us. Why not call us ohio north campus of Michigan? Because honestly we as fans, alumni don't deserve this team or any prior to this one. I know what you will say because it is status quo on the board to follow the leader and bitch and cry when the ball doesn't bounce our way. Funny how so many people fell in love in 2011 and now it's time to jump ship and change it up right? I mean honestly we should just hire Jim Tressell and call it a day. I know this is a point spread thread, but I sense the negativity and it is sad to see. I finally get why we never got harbaugh, or miles. They are alumni and plate ere an realize just how fair weather it is and both decided we aren't deserving of shit. Whatever though. Just like the performance, coaching has been mediocre this year many of the fans are the same. The players and coaches should fire our asses.

Joined: 11/23/2009

MGoPoints: 2467

Bilg2.0

November 24th, 2013 at 10:17 AM ^

Your bravado does not increase the likelihood of the team winning.  You aren't giving the pregrame pep talk.  We are trying to objectively assess what the line should and will be. Whatever the line ends up, yes, Michigan can still win next Saturday, no matter how unlikely, which is ultimately why they "play the game."  But the purpose of a line is exactly that...to assess the percieved odds of that happening.  Saying "Michigan will win, screw the line...derp, derp" does not make you a better fan, it's simply a hope we all share, one that goes against all data points from this season.

If you feel the need to post Rah-Rah rants for some sort of delusion of influencing the game's outcome (like a belief that we missed out on better coaches because of our negativity) or to identify yourelf as a "true fan," then so be it.  It does not make the rest of us pussies or less of a fan because we see Michigan as a far inferior product on the field, a sloppy, poorly coached team that will have a very difficult time competing against a quality opponent.

Trying to predict the line is an exercise in objectivity, not a guage of one's fandom. 

Joined: 10/13/2013

MGoPoints: 66

LSAClassOf2000

November 24th, 2013 at 6:58 AM ^

Using the Sagarin numbers that are on the site right now (these will update on Monday, I think), you would predict that that the differential would be 12.87 points in favor of Ohio State. I have to think it will be somewhat wider than this on Monday. We had this discussion a couple weeks ago in another thread about how the Iowa game might be the deciding factor in whether we walk into The Game a two score underdog or not. Well, we watched yesterday....

Joined: 01/07/2011

MGoPoints: 130603

bigego150

November 24th, 2013 at 7:29 AM ^

I would assume we lose by more than 14 for sure, probably by more than 21 to be quite honest

 

We do not have to worry about not being elite, hell, we are not even a good team with Hoke as the HC

 

Sad to say

Joined: 07/06/2012

MGoPoints: 141

McFate

November 24th, 2013 at 7:44 AM ^

... per Phil Steele's preseason magazine, and his web site:

2010 UM +17

2009 UM +11.5

2008 UM +20

1999 UM -11

1998 UM +10

1996 UM +17

Steele's data ends in 1993, but there were probably several double-digit spreads in UM's favor in the late '80s and early '90s.  In the games above, the favorite is 5-1.

Joined: 09/16/2008

MGoPoints: 170

UMMAN83

November 24th, 2013 at 8:34 AM ^

win so I guess it's us plus 3. Although that mouth fumble really makes it neg 49. Maybe Brandon will change his mind and break out a new uni to make some money at least.

Joined: 11/26/2009

MGoPoints: 1491

Flying Dutchman

November 24th, 2013 at 8:48 AM ^

I have to believe its going to be 15.

All the crap that has been trotted out on the field, you gotta believe Borges has saved something special for this week.    Something?   Please??

Joined: 09/16/2009

MGoPoints: 11454