Predict the 1st Pass of Playoff Committee Picks

Submitted by alum96 on

We are mid week quieter period where we are done over analyzing the past opponent and still gearing up for the next, so for some fun (and yes it doesn't matter in a month) what is your prediction for what the committee will do with the top 4 with seeds?  Don't post your personal seeding but what you think goes down tonight.

I'd like to see the playoff committee go off track with the polls and I think the chance is there with Clemson or LSU in particular:

  1. LSU
  2. Clemson
  3. Ohio State
  4. TCU

Next 2:

  • Baylor
  • Stanford

 

Some reasoning:

  • Clemson (SOS 28) has some of the best advanced stats in the nation plus a win over ND...but that's their only top notch win.  LSU has Florida as their big win which is looking better by the week.
  • LSU is 2-0 vs Sagarin top 30, Clemson is 1-0, OSU/Baylor/TCU have played no top 30 Sagarin teams.
  • TCU > Baylor as TCU SOS is 53, Baylor 103 (Sagarin)
  • I picked Stanford (SOS 23) as #6 over Iowa, MSU, Alabama, ND, Florida, Utah, and Oklahoma just because I thought P12 needed some representation and their road loss is to a decent team in game 1.  If the committee wants to reward a 1 loss team Stanford or Bama are the way to go.  If its record above all else that 6th spot prob is Iowa/MSU.
  • Stanford is 3-0 vs Sagarin top 30 teams
  • Alabama is 4-1 vs Sagarin top 30 teams
  • LSU has SOS 37 and OSU 68 if you are curious
  • Of other P5 undefeated: Iowa SOS is 47, MSU 59, OK State 70

 

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NittanyFan

November 3rd, 2015 at 7:05 PM ^

would be, admittedly, at least somewhat partially politically driven.  E.g., "we the committee are showing that even the non-Power 5 teams do have potential access to the playoffs."

All the people on this committee are politicians (in one way or another), so they're sensitive to that.  Ultimately none of these pre-December polls matter one iota anyway, so yes --- they may be "trying to wow everyone tonight."  

Memphis' case come December for inclusion in the playoffs rides on two things: (1) them being undefeated and (2) Ole Miss (at least) making the SEC title game.  Either of those don't happen, and Memphis is almost assuredly out.  

FWIW, Cinci's best OOC win in 2009 was over 8-4 Oregon State.  Hawaii's best OOC win in 2007 was over a sub-.500 Washington.  A theoretical unbeaten Memphis with a win over SEC Champion Ole Miss is a bit different from those 2 cases.

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Perkis-Size Me

November 3rd, 2015 at 4:52 PM ^

Right now:

1) OSU - they looked sloppy at the start of the year, but they seem to have found their footing. And they're the defending champs so they'll get the benefit of the doubt.

2) Clemson - still waiting on the inevitable Clemsoning, but so far they've looked the part. And have been very convincing at times.

3) LSU - I personally think they lose to Bama this weekend and pretty much are out of the playoff race with the Bama/Ole Miss logjam, but for now, I'd peg them here. Fournette is the real deal, and has the ability to carry them to the playoffs. They just need to get past Bama.

4) TCU - too inconsistent defensively, but who else do I put here? Baylor plays a shit schedule and lost their starting QB, MSU is bound to get exposed eventually, and Notre Dame is too banged up IMO. Maybe Stanford, but barely squeaking by Wazzu is leaving me hesitant for now. At least TCU's offense can really put up points with the best of them. But I ultimately think they and Baylor get left out because of the lack of a conference title game.

Iowa will get annihilated in the BTCG and be removed from the conversation. If Stanford runs the table I think they're in.



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bklein09

November 3rd, 2015 at 5:23 PM ^

It will be interesting to see how the committee balances three things: actual record, SOS, and the eyeball test. There are some undefeated teams that have played no one (see Baylor), some undefeated teams that have looked bad in most of their games (see MSU), and some one-loss teams that have played tough schedules and looked good other than one week (see Alabama and Stanford). I have no idea how that all shakes out, but we'll see tonight.

Here's my wild guess for what the committee will do. Not what I think is correct.

1. Ohio State
2. Clemson
3. LSU
4. TCU



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jblaze

November 3rd, 2015 at 5:37 PM ^

B1G champ, SEC champ, B12 champ (even though there is no championship game because they were left out last year), and either Pac12, ND, or ACC champ.

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Nitro

November 3rd, 2015 at 6:57 PM ^

I think the only locks for the top four are LSU and Clemson.  How the committee decides the other two teams is anybody's guess.

I'd rank the resume's of the other undefeated teams with a shot in this order: Iowa, Memphis, TCU, OSU, Baylor, MSU

With regard to the one loss teams with a shot, I'd rank their resumes in this order: Alabama, Stanford, Utah, Notre Dame, Florida

At this point, my top 15 would be:
1. LSU
2. Clemson
3. Alabama
4. Iowa
5. Stanford
6. Utah
7. Memphis
8. TCU
9. OSU
10. Baylor
11. Notre Dame
12. Florida
13. MSU
14. Michigan
15. Ole Miss
 
If we'd avoided the fluke and finished the game against MSU, I'd be inclined to replace Bama and Iowa with Utah and Michigan in the 3/4 spots.  It'd be hard to put us ahead of Utah because we lost to them. It'd be easy to put us ahead of State if the Gift Six was our only loss, but I can't use the "eye-test" or whatever to override a two-loss difference.
 
I also might be overlooking Houston.  There's not that much difference between what they've done and what OSU, TCU, and Baylor have done.

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LSAClassOf2000

November 3rd, 2015 at 6:25 PM ^

I suppose if I am on the committee, I probably show up in a T-shirt with a questionable logo, smoke a cigar and have a nice snifter of brandy while I make my selections. Seriously though, if I had to guess top six right now in no particular order:

 - Ohio State

- Clemson

- Baylor

- TCU

- LSU

- Alabama

You've probably got Florida, Michigan State, Notre Dame and a couple others sitting just below that right now. 

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flashOverride

November 3rd, 2015 at 6:42 PM ^

Freep sports page was in the lounge at work, front page had staff picks. Rexrode is the biggest homer on this planet, MSU at #3, WOW. Shouldn't the Top 4 consist of teams who have completely crushed at least one opponent? Correct me if I'm wrong, but if he's an AP poll voter and that's what his ballot for that reads as well, then it's a travesty to call him a journalist. Actively trying to inflate his chosen team. Meanwhile Snyder gets Michigan investigated and yet the Freep is somehow the "Blue Wall" lol.

Sharp, of course, had neither OSU nor MSU in his Top 4, because the B1G is always "bad". 

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Nitro

November 3rd, 2015 at 6:53 PM ^

MSU's best performance is a game they basically lost except for a fluke.  Their second best is a three point win at home against a 5-3 team.  The only other notable thing they've done is getting pushed to the limit by two teams with losing records.  They haven't been impressive.

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Nitro

November 3rd, 2015 at 8:16 PM ^

I don't see the relevance to my point.  There are 10 other undefeated teams -- you can't rely on just "wins matter" to get a top four.  They've played better than maybe two or three of the other undefeated teams.

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flashOverride

November 3rd, 2015 at 8:42 PM ^

...and? There are a lot more than two other undefeated teams, and more than two who have more impressive win resumes than MSU. Yes, they're 8-0, but is it really too much, eight games into the season, to expect a playoff-worthy team to have even just one win that wasn't still in doubt at some point in the fourth quarter? I mean I guess you could argue Air Force but that's the point, you could still argue.

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