Pre-B1G Tourney Bracketology

The brackets as they relate to Michigan are unlikely to change between now and when we play, so now’s a good time to look at precisely where we stand in Bracketology.

1.      Bracket Matrix: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/.  We’re a 2 seed, but 7 on the S-Curve, meaning that to the Bracket Matrix we could get passed if Duke or Virginia look particularly impressive in the ACC tournament, or could fall back if we have an unimpressive performance.  FSU is the 5^th out on Bracket Matrix; they could help us in several ways if they make a deep run in the ACC tournament.  Often when looking at the Bracket Matrix I try to spot trends, such as whether brackets that have updated most recently take an easily identifiably different approach than those updated less recently.  However, if we limited the brackets in Bracket Matrix to only those that updated in the last two days, our spot would not change.

2.      Lundradri: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology.  This is about the time that Lnuardi becomes more accurate because he starts to receive tidbits from committee members and former committee members.  We’re a 2 seed in his bracket, but number 5 on the S-curve: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/nitty.  That’s more favorable than Bracket Matrix.

3.      Jerry Palm: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology.  2 seed, no S-curve provided.  His bracket would be an amazing draw for Michigan.

I previously have examined only those three indicators, but as we get close to Selection Sunday, let’s take a look at a few more sources.

4.      Crashing the Dance: http://crashingthedance.com/seed.php.  6 on the S-Curve, but just a few decimals ahead of Cuse.  Essentially the same position as on the Bracket Matrix, but CtD isn’t worried about UVa passing us from the ACC, just Duke.  Ctd also has Wisconsin behind, not in front, of us.

5.      Yahoo!: http://sports.yahoo.com/featured/ncaab/bigboard/.  5 on his S-curve.

6.      USA Today: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2014/03/09/usa-today-sports-ncaa-tournament-bracketology/6228743/.  USA Today has done very well in the Bracket Matrix rankings: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html.  We’re a 2 seed there as well, but no S-curve is provided.

7.     Our Best Buddy Drew: http://drewsbracketology.blogspot.com/.  Drew, a noted Michigan/B1G/self hater now has us as a 3 seed, but number 12 on his S-curve.  Clever move by Drew, because the Bracket Matrix doesn't look at an S-curve in its rankings, just seed.  So in the event that we get a 2 seed, he'd be off by only one seed, which is isn't too bad for Bracket Matrix rankingspurposes.  Still, his other seeds are just plain dumb and you are invited to tell him as much.

The upshot of all of these is that we currently are a 2 seed, which you already knew.  But in reviewing these brackets, it’s become clear to me that our 2 seed status isn’t as secure as I thought it was.  One of Duke, Virginia and Syracuse is likely to win the ACC tournament and that team could pass us unless we make the B1G tournament finals.  The question is where we are on the S-Curve.  If we’re number 7 or 8, anything short of a B1G finals appearance likely means a 3 seed because we'd be passed by Duke and/or Cuse and/or UVa.  If we’re 5 or 6, we probably need to win only one game, provided that we don’t have a bad loss in the semifinals.