A Possible Explanation For Our Struggles In Wet Weather Conditions

Submitted by Clarence Beeks on

It seems like in recent years our players have struggled more in poor weather conditions than our opponents.  Just something I that came to me as I was reading the UFR: is it possible that part of the problem with Michigan's performance in poor weather games is related to southern recruiting?  I'm not sure if many readers here know this, but many (if not most) locations in the south do not play when the weather is bad.  For example, here in South Carolina, it is extremely unlikely that a game will actually be played if it is raining the day of the game.  I can't tell you the number of Friday night games rescheduled to Saturday because of weather (which, at least here, is not limited to the usual lightning situations).  It might explain, at least to some degree, why we seem to struggle a little more than other teams with poor weather conditions.  Yes, both teams have to deal with the conditions, but teams that have a lesser number of (contributing) players from the south likely have more players that are used to playing in poor weather conditions.  I certainly don't have anything to back this up with, rather it was just something I was tossing around in my mind.

Edit: I've changed the title of this thread to clear up the fact that I am specifically talking about wet weather conditions.  In other words, I wasn't intending to write the typical "Florida kids can't play in the cold" type thread (because, obviously, the Illinois game blew that tired argument out of the water).

Happy Jack

November 18th, 2010 at 7:37 PM ^

i know this is top secret from a pay site security wall fortress but insider knowledge is speculating that Denard likes his balls dry.  I REPEAT, Denard likes his balls dry.  

take it to the bank.

Dezzy

November 18th, 2010 at 3:47 PM ^

I completely agree with you.  My dad and I go over this everytime the weather is bad during a Michigan game.  He can't get over how soft the weather makes the team, and always goes back to the fact that "they don't play in long underwear in Florida."  I don't know about down south, but up here who doesn't get a little bit more fired up to play in a tsunami or blizzard?

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

November 18th, 2010 at 3:48 PM ^

Maybe.  Or how about: our offense relies on leverage and passing and generally doing stuff other than eating cheese and going GRRRR and shoving a guy backwards and when it's raining that's harder to do?  This is why people said it wouldn't survive in the Big Ten, but frankly Big Ten country isn't likelier to see rain than anywhere else.  The offense would probably struggle in a Florida monsoon just as much as a Michigan monsoon.

Plus, the later the year, the tougher the opponent, so even if there's a temperature correlation, you know what they say about causation.

Clarence Beeks

November 18th, 2010 at 3:52 PM ^

Yes, I definitely agree with what you are saying.  I certainly wasn't trying to suggest that what I was saying was the only factor; just one of several.

but frankly Big Ten country isn't likelier to see rain than anywhere else.

I would actually argue that it is probably less likely to see rain than most places down here (which should tend to indicate that they would be used to it), but the point I'm speaking to, I think, explains why that's not the case: even though it rains just as much in both places, or more down here, they don't play in it down here, at least not games.

Plus, the later the year, the tougher the opponent, so even if there's a temperature correlation, you know what they say about causation.

Yeah, no doubt.  However, I should have been more clear about something: I was specifically not talking about temperature.  I was talking about rain.

MGoObes

November 18th, 2010 at 3:51 PM ^

i also think that in 2008 it was our first year running the offense and then in 2009 it was our second year running the offense. 

having said that, playing in south florida in november is a  LOT different than playing in the midwest in november, as you mentioned. i think the biggest thing is experience playing in the system

Blue_Sox

November 18th, 2010 at 4:02 PM ^

Don't think rain explains much. If you look back to last year with the Capital One (PSU 19 --LSU 17), Outback (Northwestern 35 --  Auburn 37) and Gator Bowl (West Virginia 19 -- Florida State 33)...all of these were played in wet conditions. These matchups all involve teams that get mostly Northern talent and the other the reverse. There isn't a clear cut advantage that can be taken away from this. I know this is a small sample size, but the number of games Michigan has played in the RR era in the rain is also limited. I'm not The Mathlete so can't provide more robust data, this is just from a recent memory. 

SysMark

November 18th, 2010 at 4:25 PM ^

If you extend this logic you would think all teams with southern players would have problems in the rain, which may be true - I have no idea.  It would imply that an SEC game played in the rain would be a particularly sloppy, fumble-laden game.  I wonder if there are stats available on that.

Clarence Beeks

November 18th, 2010 at 4:30 PM ^

I would tend to agree with that extension of logic, but the problem is, at least in terms of evaluating the trend, the set of games to evaluate would be pretty low.  For the most part, the deep south doesn't get all that much rain during the fall (as compared to up north, anyway).  I watch a ton of college football and I can remember relatively few televised games over the last several years played in the south and in wet conditions.

markusr2007

November 18th, 2010 at 4:35 PM ^

In parts of FL in the autumn it can rain quite a bit, and in spurts,  suddenly stop and then be sunny and muggy as hell. Turf is wet, muddy and slippery.   I would think many of Michigan's skilled position players would be well-accustomed to wet conditions to some extent, though perhaps not wet+bone shattering cold conditions.

Also, in WV the weather can be a real bastard between September and December in terms of rain.  This didn't seem to slow down RR teams that much.

BornInAA

November 18th, 2010 at 4:49 PM ^

and it rains or threatens too every day in August and Sept we are always practicing / playing in wet muddy conditions. Florida recruits are used to wet conditions for 1/2 the season.

Then early Oct a switch goes off and we go into dry season and get no rain at all for weeks and weeks.

Clarence Beeks

November 18th, 2010 at 5:02 PM ^

and it rains or threatens too every day in August and Sept

Yeah, I definitely remember that from living in Florida.  I also remember that when it actually does rain during that time of the year (usually every day) it doesn't rain for very long, so basically, to get experience of actually playing in the rain (as opposed to just on a wet field) you have to be practicing (or playing) during that window when it is actually raining (if it rains that day).  Then, like you said, the switch goes off and the humidity breaks and it virtually never rains again until spring.  Weather-wise, there are few things more wonderful than living in Florida in the winter (which, ironically, is the time that very few people actually go to Florida).  I definitely miss that.

jmblue

November 18th, 2010 at 5:06 PM ^

I'm not sure there needs to be any complicated explanation.  This was the first rainy game of the year, and Magee, presumably in response to the conditions, called an extremely conservative game against a team cheating up to stop the run.  We DeBorded it.