Possible Bowl Scenarios and Insights (No Pun Intended!)

Submitted by bklein09 on

I know several other threads have discussed this, but I wanted to feel special so here it is. Honestly, the prospects of potential bowl games just really excites me, especially after not going for a couple years, and I just wanted to share my thoughts. At least its not RR talk right?!

 

So without further adieu: 

The first real choice that a Big Ten bowl has is for the Outback, with Wisky and OSU to the BCS and MSU a lock for the Capital One.

The Outback Bowl could technically choose any other bowl eligible BT team because they are all 7-5 (assuming Illinois beats Fresno) and within one game difference in the BT standings.

Now, most are thinking Iowa will be the pick. And I agree. However, keep in mind that Iowa lost their last three games, including clunkers to Northwestern and Minny! I know we didn't set the world on fire in the last few weeks, but it has to count against Iowa that they look like a team that has already called it quits. Most Iowa fans had plans of going to Pasadena or some other BCS location. Will they travel as well as usual for a mid-level bowl game?

All those questions aside, lets assume that Iowa does slide into that Outback slot.

The next up in the selection process are the Gator and Insight. As mentioned by others, these two bowls will each submit their selection, and if they pick the same team, a coin-flip will determine who gets their pick first. It is unlikely that either Illinois or Northwestern would be chosen above Michigan and Penn State, so lets only focus on us and the Nittany Lions.

So let's say that both bowls select PSU. There would be a coin-flip, with the winner getting their selection. If the Insight wins the toss, they would get PSU, sending us to the Gator. Vice versa if the Gator won.

To me this seems like the most likely scenario, however, there is the possibility that the bowls both want Michigan or they pick different teams. Whichever way it shakes out, it seems to me that Michigan has a 50-50 shot at the Gator. Personally that would be my choice because of the NYD-Florida stuff, but either one would be alright.

Of course after those two bowls come the bowls in Houston and Dallas with the stupid names. I figure Illinois is the next pick, followed by NW because Persa being out makes them even less of a draw than usual. 

Anyways, thats my take on the whole situation. If I messed up anywhere feel free to correct me. Here's hoping for January 1st in Florida!

 

 

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BlueinLansing

November 29th, 2010 at 2:37 AM ^

seems a more likely Outback selection than Iowa.  Iowa was there just 2 years ago and has been there 3 times in 7 years.  Its been 4 years since PSU was there.

The big draw back might be if Alabama were to slips into this bowl, if that happened they probably would not want to rematch with Penn State.

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Tater

November 29th, 2010 at 7:15 AM ^

I really wish it could work out that Bama plays MSU in a bowl this year.  Surely bowl organizers have figured out what a great natural matchup this would be.  MSM "reporters" wouldn't even have to do much homework to have a ready-made storyline.

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chatster

November 29th, 2010 at 7:54 AM ^

Projections for the Wolverines’ bowl opponent are all over the place, but most expect Michigan to be playing in Tempe, Arizona at 10:00 PM on December 28. ESPN has Michigan in the Insight Bowl against Missouri or Nebraska. CBS Sportsline has Michigan-Oklahoma State in the Insight Bowl. CFN has Michigan and Missouri in the Insight Bowl. Rivals has a Michigan-Nebraska Insight Bowl. Phil Steele has Michigan and Texas A&M in the Insight Bowl.  To be contrary, Sports Illustrated has Michigan and Florida in a delayed bowl-game rematch in the Gator Bowl. (Wonder whether SI believes that this really might happen or that it just would be an appropriate bookend to Rich Rodriguez’s career at Michigan if the Wolverines are going to have a new Head Coach in 2011.)

Maybe SI has it right (assuming that the Outback Bowl takes Iowa over Penn State). I hadn’t considered the Insight/Gator coin-flip dilemma until reviewing comments on this board. Each of those bowls might consider Penn State to be a better draw than Michigan because of the possibility (however remote it may be) that it could be Joe Paterno’s last bowl game. So, if both select PSU and the Insight Bowl wins the coin toss, that could give the Gator Bowl a great consolation choice.

Whether you believe that Michigan’s football program exceeded, reached or missed expectations this season, the Wolverines should be a good bowl attraction for several reasons (even for the Outback Bowl, and even considering that Michigan’s defense and special teams may not be bowl worthy this season):

Despite his late-season struggles and injuries, Denard Robinson has been one of the most exciting players in the nation this season, and he should be in better health by the time the bowl game starts.

With the nation’s largest alumni base and roughly 40,000 current students, Michigan should be able to sell at least as many as its allotted number of tickets.

Whether Rich Rodriguez or Jim Harbaugh or anyone else is Michigan’s Head Coach for the bowl game, the sideshow could attract as much national media attention as some of the BCS bowls.

Even if Michigan’s men’s soccer team extends its eight-game winning streak and advances to the NCAA Tournament’s Final Four, there would be a remote possibility that Justin Meram (whose two goals led UM to a win over South Carolina and a match with Maryland next weekend in the quarterfinals) could be persuaded to kick for the Wolverines in the bowl game.

When Syracuse allowed Greg Robinson to coach out the season after he was fired in 2008, in the game after Robinson’s firing was announced, Syracuse upset Notre Dame on national TV. Could this year’s Michigan team be the beneficiary of history repeating itself?

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Beavis

November 29th, 2010 at 11:44 AM ^

I swore I downloaded the ESPN Bowl App for my phone yesterday and they had us in the Gator against Florida.

[edit: Just checked again, and yes - ESPN has us in the Gator bowl.  Either they forgot to update whatever is posted online or you are confusing SI/ESPN]

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Onas

November 29th, 2010 at 11:46 AM ^

Michigan is the biggest draw.  Record-setting QB, exciting (most of the time) offense, national name / drama, and a fanbase that is jonesin' hard on their bowl addiction after two years of cold turkey.  We need to whoop an SEC team to start feeling like Michigan again.

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Tacopants

November 29th, 2010 at 9:35 AM ^

I think that the Gator clearly makes a bid for Penn State.  If I remember correctly, that was Joe Paterno's first ever bowl game.  I mean, think about how easy it would be to get PSU fans to go with that kind of story line: He was here for his first bowl game, and he's here for what might be his last bowl game.

The Insight Bowl probably doesn't care who they get, given Michigan and PSU both have never played there.

The only problem would arise if both were to bid Penn State.  I don't really know why that would happen, as the Insight Bowl could save everybody some headaches by just bidding for Michigan.

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Syyk

November 29th, 2010 at 10:08 AM ^

But why would they want to save everyone the headache?  The idea is that the Insight and the Gator both have equal picks.  Why give up whoever they want most just to be nice?  That being said, they might collude with the Gator Bowl committee and figure out what is best for both of them, but I'm not really sure if they would do that.  As far as I know, it seems like they're pretty independent organizations.

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Gene

November 29th, 2010 at 2:26 PM ^

And unless there's money exchanging hands, there's no point in coluding either. There's no third party they can gang up against; it's just the two bowls and their first and second picks. Of course they both want whatever their first pick might be.

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joeyb

November 29th, 2010 at 9:41 AM ^

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_bids_to_college_bowl_games#Order_of_selection

An interesting twist would be USC beating Auburn for more than obvious reasons. USC would get the Sugar Bowl bid and Auburn would probably get an at-large still. The Outback bowl gets first selection of the East division after the Capital One Bowl picks. That would mean that if we were selected to the Outback, we would play Florida. It would also mean that LSU gets relegated to the Cotton Bowl. Bama goes to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl, and Miss St goes to the Gator Bowl (which was already probable). The main difference is that the SEC representative in the Outback Bowl would have two fewer wins than before.

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evenyoubrutus

November 29th, 2010 at 9:58 AM ^

I'm not too familiar with the whole bowl-selection process, but is there a reason the Outback Bowl woudn't select Michigan, considering we clearly have the biggest fanbase of all possible candidates?

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joeyb

November 29th, 2010 at 10:23 AM ^

I think who we play will make a big difference. If USC is going to be the SEC representative, then a rematch against Iowa, whose fanbase travels well, might be seen as a better opportunity for ratings. If it's Florida, then a rematch against us, plus the stories of all of our recruits from Florida might sell more tickets and be preferable. There is also the thought that this might be JoePa's last game, even though he said it wouldn't. We might also be seen as the weakest of those three because we lost to both of them...badly.

If I had to guess, I think we end up in the Outback, but it seems like equal chances for all three of those teams to end up in any of those three bowl games.

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