Possibility of Manny staying

Submitted by Mitch Cumstein on

I'm just curious as to whether or not there is any possibility of Manny staying. I haven't looked extensively into the issue, but I don't know that he has an incredible skill set yet for the pros. Maybe its just wishful thinking, but does anyone know what his draft stock is? I can't see him being a lottery pick at this point.

Drake

January 16th, 2010 at 2:22 PM ^

I think its at 75% that he stays. He just doesnt look like a NBA player atm. He needs to refine his shooting and needs to knock down shots from the perimeter more consistently.

A2MIKE

January 16th, 2010 at 5:01 PM ^

The NBA draft is all about potential. Remember when Carolina won the title in 05, Marvin Williams was one of the top 5 picks in the draft, yet he didn't start on that championship team. The NBA more than any other league drafts on potential more than current results. The sky is the limit for Manny in terms of potential, therefore I put his chances of staying at less than 50%.

jmblue

January 16th, 2010 at 2:28 PM ^

I think he's projected to go in the second round right now. He's a bit of a tweener right now; his game is well-suited for the 3, but in the NBA he'll be too short to play it. The 2 is his most likely NBA position, but his outside shot and ballhandling aren't as strong as you'd ideally like for that position. It doesn't help him that the 2 is the easiest position to fill, as there are tons of guys about that size who can fill it up.

I wouldn't rule out him staying, but my gut feeling is that this is it for him. He and Sims are close, and I'm not sure he'll want to play another year in college without him.

FGB

January 16th, 2010 at 4:27 PM ^

I saw one of about 7 that had DeShawn getting drafted at all, and he's not in nbadraft.net's or Chad Ford's top 100 players.

Despite all of that, I could see Sims having a career in the NBA more than Manny, in a role player setting. They're both playing up a position from what they'd play in the NBA, but DeShawn seems to be really consistent lately with that 15 foot jumper or little bank shots from 10 feet, and his 3-point ability is quite frankly not any worse than Manny's, which could be acceptable from a 3 (whereas it would not be acceptable for Manny at the 2). I see a lot of wing-type athletic ability in DeShawn that he's not fully utilizing because he can play in the post in the big 10.

It basically comes down to, I don't really see Manny being able to play the 2, whereas I could see DeShawn becoming a serviceable 3. I would love to be wrong about Manny.

aaamichfan

January 16th, 2010 at 2:31 PM ^

Yeah, I think there is a very good chance he stays. He needs to become more consistent, and put together a full 40 minutes of quality play. At this point, I imagine NBA scouts view him as somewhat of a smaller LaVell Blanchard.

gpsimms not to…

January 16th, 2010 at 6:09 PM ^

I would have trouble thinking of two more different players.

Lavell just coasted around the 3 and became a shooter. (35%+ from 3 all four years). Manny goes to the rack.

They both rebounded well for their size, that's about it (although Lavell was a fair amount taller...6'7" maybe?). Lavell was not an assist guy, either.

*edit-by the way, I didn't neg you, I'm all about promoting positive self image, and don't really do that.

aaamichfan

January 16th, 2010 at 7:00 PM ^

My comparison was based mainly on the fact that both players were/are quality outside shooters, but need to improve their game going at the basket in order to improve NBA prospects. I should have been clearer about that.

I agree, though, that an overall game comparison between the two is a bit tenuous.

Lordfoul

January 16th, 2010 at 8:33 PM ^

This might be true if Manny weren't a god-awful perimeter shooter with some short streakyish exceptions. His outside jumper looks anything but fluid at this point.

I think if the choice were right now, he stays. He does still have a lot of games ahead though, and if he gets enough highlight reel material, like at the end of the Indiana game for instance, his stock may rise high enough to go. He will need to get a smooth jumper to be effective at the next level though. Another year under Beilein might help him a lot.

3rdGenerationBlue

January 16th, 2010 at 2:34 PM ^

Don't know the odds of him staying but he needs to show that he can create shots for himself on the perimeter and knock them down consistently. People know that he can drive and finish but that doesn't make him a complete player. Hope he stays and rounds out his game.

Tater

January 16th, 2010 at 2:37 PM ^

When Manny struggled at the beginning of the year, it made me think he should stay and get another year with JB and plenty of time to finish his degree. I think he may be too much of a "tweener" right now to get drafted in the first round and get a guaranteed contract.

If he is going to play the two in the NBA, he needs to have Rip Hamilton's motor (circa 2004) and needs a better outside shot. If he is going to play the three, he needs to grow a few inches or play like he did.

I hope he stays and develops into an All-American in his senior year. That would get him into the first round. And more shots falling from outside definitely wouldn't hurt.

tn wolverine

January 16th, 2010 at 3:23 PM ^

I'd love to see him stay but the NBA is all about potential. He's athletic can get to the rim and create his own shots, he can potentially become a good outside shooter. That's what scouts are lookig for, that potential. Although we all remember when the Pistons wasted the #2 overall pick on Darko's potential.

Jinxed

January 16th, 2010 at 3:45 PM ^

what potential? A guy with the measurables of an average shooting guard and the skill-set of a small forward?

Hah... I just don't see him getting drafted. At this point, almost every player that gets drafted has more than "potential" on his resume. Manny Harris is simply the best player on an average basketball team who has a very bad tendency to disappear whenever he faces a decent defender. (something that he will face day in and day out on the NBA)

He's not athletic enough for the 2, or big enough for the 3. For a comparison.. see A.D. Vassallo last year on the Virginia Tech team. Decent player who's at best, a role player in the NBA. He decided to go back to Puerto Rico and be a star player there.

So why would a team draft him? Because they hope that somehow he'll learn to shoot from 3? Riiiight.. Do you honestly think he'll be able to create his own shot in the NBA when he's no longer being handed the ball so he can waste possessions on extremely inefficient shots?

gpsimms not to…

January 16th, 2010 at 6:15 PM ^

I think his athletic ability is VERY impressive. When have you ever seen Manny make a sick crossover and take someone off the dribble? He can't. Why? Because he's not a great dribbler. He beats people with pure speed and pure ups. I totally agree that he is a great athlete with weak fundamentals.

In fact, I think his improvement (mentally) is a huge credit to Beilein (evidenced by his hugely improved A:TO ratio since his freshman year), but I thi it's also actually fair to complain that Beilein has not improved Manny's handle/shot* as much as you would hope for such a great athlete.

Don't get me wrong, I think Beilein is a great coach and a great developer. The steps DeShawn and Manny have made absolutely show that Beilein is 1000009x better than Amaker at developing talent.

*Also, to be fair, Manny's midrange jumper is better (used to be non existent) and his three at least looks better. Also, he sometimes goes left, which he used to not do. He just a ways to go yet.

dahblue

January 16th, 2010 at 8:39 PM ^

He's "merely the best player on an average team"? That's it?
You don't think that Manny would be an even brighter star on a team with more scoring threats to ease that defensive pressure? I have no clue about precise draft position, but there isn't a chance in hell that he'd go undrafted.

For what it's worth, the coaching staff entered the season expecting Manny to go pro after this year...without question. Of course, the coaches (and all of us) expected a different outcome on the court as well. So, hopefully he stays - making for a better team next year. Then again, if he stays, is Zeigler likely to commit?

shoes untied

January 16th, 2010 at 3:35 PM ^

i highly doubt he stays. he is projected late 1st to early second via ESPN. so many GMs draft on potential. that is all it is about. Oden being picked over Durant. BJ mullens being taken like what 15th? If the ceiling is high they get drafted prematurely. I can honestly say i think he will be sick if he goes now. because he will probably be drafted late first round on a good team. Imagine him as a third option on a contender or even 4th or bench player. i really believe he will be very good on a contender.
Via ESPN insider:
Draft Projection: Late first to early second
Pros: Athletic combo guard
Excels at breaking down defenses and getting to the rim.
Excellent finisher around the basket.
Can be a tenacious defender who can pick up lots of steals.
Good free-throw shooter.
Good rebounder for a guard

Cons:
Needs to add strength.
Really needs to work on his jump shot.
Very streaky from the 3-point line.
Inconsistent from midrange.

about his triple double: There were lots of terrific performances in Week 1, but the one that caught a number of NBA scouts' eyes was Michigan's Manny Harris. Harris scored 18 points, grabbed 13 rebounds and delivered 10 assists in Michigan's season opener -- only the second triple-double in Michigan history. "We've always known he has NBA talent," one NBA league executive said. "He's just never been able to consistently put it together. If he can put together a great year, he's going in the first round."

Jinxed

January 16th, 2010 at 3:48 PM ^

That was the start of the season when the team was ranked #16..

All that won't matter. This team won't make the tournament, and Manny will simply be an afterthought. Specially now that he's disappeared on many of Michigan's losses...

panthera leo fututio

January 16th, 2010 at 4:10 PM ^

I think you're being a little overly optimistic on Manny's chances of having an impact on a good team next year. Best case scenerio, I think he could fill a role similar to what Tony Allen does for the Celtics, giving 15 minutes of high-energy defense and some slashing and transition points.

Long-term, I think Manny could be a really effective scorer in the league, but as a defender I think he has a pretty limited ceiling. He's a very good leaper and has very good vertical speed and agility, but his lateral quickness doesn't seem all that great, he has at best average size for the 2, and his arms are very short for his height. He'll be able to make some energy plays, get in passing lanes, etc., but his potential as a stopper isn't all that great.

VAWolverine

January 16th, 2010 at 3:48 PM ^

it's what Manny's closest advisors outside of the program tell him. He is at his best when he can penetrate to the hoop. This seems to give him more confidence when he is able to combine points near the hoop with outside shooting. These factors also enhance his defensive intensity. The Big 10 season will provide further evidence of if he is ready to go pro. I would hate to have him leave prematurely and end up like the Taylor kid who played guard from MSU several years ago.

chris16w

January 16th, 2010 at 4:07 PM ^

I've never heard of football players (or other basketball players for that matter) making this decision based on what their friends are doing. If he needs to stick around to develop his skills and earn a 7 figure contract, seems like a no brainer.

the_white_tiger

January 16th, 2010 at 4:55 PM ^

I don't even think that Manny knows at this point. We pretty much have no basis for our speculation considering that we have a limited view of the bigger picture. It seems obvious that he has some elements of his game to work on, but then again, the money may be too much to pass up. We'll find out sooner or later.

Brick

January 16th, 2010 at 5:49 PM ^

Not one mock draft has him even near the lottery. He's generally regarded as an early second round pick before all of the Euros and underclassmen declare. Why is a likely mid second round pick 90-95% certain to declare early?

Anyone familiar with the NBA knows there is one type of player that the NBA is not looking for. 6'4"-6'5" shooting guards with mediocre jump shots who can take it to the hole are the last think on an NBA GMs shopping list. They are a dime a dozen.

The Nets are the worst NBA team ever and Manny would be at best 4th string behind Courtney Lee, CDR, and Keyon Dooling.

Mickey Redmond

January 16th, 2010 at 7:42 PM ^

Manny would be a fool to go pro early. The NBA would chew him up and spit him out in a year. He needs to work on his strength, shooting and ball-handling. Doesn't have the skills to be an nba 2-guard right now. Doesn't have the size to be a 3.

chitownblue2

January 16th, 2010 at 9:33 PM ^

Manny is a willowy 6'4" small forward, without a jumper and with mediocre defense. If he tries to play the three, he'll get destroyed by larger players, and he can't shoot well enough to play the two. His best NBA asset right now, honestly, is his passing.

SysMark

January 16th, 2010 at 10:59 PM ^

In all of this analysis there is one thing that is practically undeniable. If he stays for the 4th year he has a very good chance to become a better player in the eyes of the NBA and move into a solid first round position. Specifically if he added some strength and worked hard on his jump shot he could become a much better all around player. Every year you see players who use that 4th year to make a significant leap and he seems like an ideal candidate. If he were to drop down into the second round and get cut the odds of coming back are long.

Whether he stays or not is another matter.