So everyone has gotten so excited about the expansion talk and wondering which school it's gonna be. I'm wondering what happens if they do their 18 month search, and find no one suitable. Say Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Pitt all say no. Will the Big Ten table it for another 5 years or so, and try again later? Or are they now at the point where they need to add someone no matter what, and will take a second-tier option, like Mizzou, Syracuse, or Rutgers?
Possibility Big Ten doesn't do anything at all?
are greater than 50%. The cost of sharing the Big Ten's revenue with a 12th team only worthwhile if the 12th team can increase conference revenue by roughly 10%.
but I don't think a 12th team is gonna happen.
If it does happen and the team is Mizzou I hope the big 12 goes after TCU.
Can they not do this. Too much money out there, and the Big Ten's prestige is slipping by the minute.
It's just plain stupid not to have a 12th team and a CCG.
I would take the status quo over the Big 10 making a mediocre pick for a 12th team just for the revenue and "prestige."
This decision, after all, is about more than football. It's got to be a good fit for everything: academics, other sports, geography, to name a few. While football and the CCG are definitely big issues, that's not all that's at stake here.
That's why I don't like Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, Iowa State or especially WVU, Louisville and Cincinnati.
Now, we can all scream about academics, other sports, geography, yada yada.
But if there were no other conferences with CCG's--the Big Ten would not even be considering a 12th team. Let's be frank here--This is about FOOTBALL and the mo-nay that a 12th team and CCG can potentially bring in. It's about doing something that entices the rest of the country to get the Big Ten Network--and also potentially makes the Big Ten Netwok appear as an attractive investment for larger media conglomerates with Big Caysh to spend.
The Big Ten and the rest of us can give lip service to all the rest of the variables. But in the end, it's not likely they'll consider much more than football, TV sets, and media exposure.
What exactly makes Pittsburgh mediocre other than being in a weak conference? Pitt has rich tradition and history, better than almost everyone in the Big 10 save for Mich, OSU, & PSU.
Pitt has played in a BCS game. Only 5 current Big 10 teams can say that. They have played in 7 bowl games this decade, and they have produced 5 First-Team All-America selections.
I just find it strange you consider Pitt to be mediocre when they have a more prestigious football program than more than half of the Big 10. Obviously I'd prefer Notre Dame, but Pitt is easily the next-best qualified candidate.
I don't think Mizzou or Syracuse are exactly second-tier. In fact I would rather have Mizzou than Pitt. They're not quite there academically, but they do bring solid football and basketball teams and they're not shabby in some of the other sports like baseball either. And I think the "style" of school that Missouri is fits better with the Big Ten. (State school, college town.)
Syracuse just isn't going to come. They value their lacrosse too much and just helped start up the Big East lacrosse league. I don't think they'd join a conference of non-lacrosse players. For them, lax is a borderline revenue sport.
As for the actual answer - no, I think the Big Ten would sit tight if they can't get what they want. Table it for now and look at it again later. It's much easier to wait and then try again than it is to have buyer's remorse and try and kick someone out.
Is it true that for a school to join the big ten, it has to be in a state that borders a state with a current big ten school? I heard that and I thought I would see if and of you guys knew the specifics of the conference bylaws (or whatever they are).
if the choices come down to toledo and memphis, they will drop it. if its anyone else they take 'em.
bring on pitt.
Yes, of course it is possible that they do not move on a school; but, what is the probability that after an 18 month search they find no suitable team that reciprocates interest? That is the question.
Mizzou and West Virginia have already publicly expressed their individual interest in talking with the Big 10. If I know of two teams who have expressed interest, then I'm willing to bet that J. Delaney already knows of at least 20.
In my mind, the early public announcement indicates that Mizzou is probably not happy with the framework of the Big 12. That raises the probability that there are other schools in the Big 12 with the same sentiment (Nebraska?) Consider also that Mizzou has four trophy games, while Nebraska has only one (with Mizzou, as it happens.) My other piece of worthless analysis: the Big East is clearly a notch, or two, below the Big Ten. West Virginia knows they are not first in line (due to academics and media foot-print.) Thus, their announcement will ensure that they are at least on the list of considerations, as well as pique interest among Big Ten fans (the reason they needed to go public.)
In summary, I think there is a good chance that either Nebraska or Pitt, or both, would be interested in joining the Big Ten. Either would be a solid addition; as would Mizzou or Notre Dame.