Please God, let me be dead wrong about Michigan football 2010...
I am a RichRod defender. I think he's a great football coach who has succeeded in every place that he's ever been. That other coaches consult with him when they want to know something about the spread is a testament to his standing in the CF coaching community. I also think he's done a good job of recruiting players who fit his system, and that many of them are destined for exciting moments in their winged helmets in the years ahead.
I still have a very bad feeling about this year.
I know, I shouldn't be thinking like this when it's spring, and we should all be optimistic and supportive. But I just can't help it.
I like Tate Forcier and think he shows a lot of promise, but even if he shows improvement he'll still be only a sophomore. It's sobering that there are no sr. or jr. QB's on the roster.
I like that we picked up some very promising playmakers at D-back, but they will all be freshmen. I like that Justin Turner is expected to make an impact this year, but he will be a redshirt freshman.
I like that our O-line will be deeper this year, but I feel uneasy that the optimism is based on the fact that our redshirt freshmen are at last ready to see the field.
I like our freshmen WR's. But they are, after all, freshmen, and I don't like that we have only 3 non-freshman WR's on the team.
I like that we picked up Josh Furman from Maryland, but I'm worried sick that our LB problems will take years to really fix, given that we need to bring more of them in, and that even when we do they won't likely be able to help significantly right away.
Are you seeing a pattern here?
I think that last year's pattern of promising starts and horrid finishes was due to our lack of depth and the fact that we were essentially playing our JV against everyone else's varsity. I'm worried that in 2010, we still will be.
That leads me to my deeper fear: that RichRod really is a great football coach, but could be gone before he really has a chance to re-stock the pond. In CF, you can't re-stock the pond overnight. Even when you bring in the right players, under normal conditions they don't normally make an impact until their third year in the system (one year to redshirt, another year to work their way into the system) unless they are superstuds, a la Charles Woodson or Chad Henne. And even when a lad is a superstud who can't be kept off the field, there is still a big difference between a) inserting an exciting freshman into a lineup of veterans, and b) depending on underclassmen for half of the starting positions on the field (with no real depth to back them up, to boot).
I'm sorry for being such a downer. I love Michigan football and I would be thrilled to eat my words in the fall and exult, "I was wrong! I was wrong! Oh, thank you God, I was so, so wrong..."
I long to see a RichRod-coached Michigan team that starts jrs and srs on both sides of the ball, with adequate depth behind them, and on which no player has played in anything other than the spread offense at the college level. But that would be 2012...and he may not have that long if it doesn't go well this year.
What do you all think? Please help - I really want to be wrong on this and if there is solid reason for optimism, it would make spring a lot less gloomy for at least one Wolverine fan...
Thanks,
Harmon40
March 21st, 2010 at 10:07 PM ^
You are wrong about Michigan football 2010.
March 22nd, 2010 at 12:17 AM ^
Wildcat says it much more succinctly below this.
Whoops
March 22nd, 2010 at 12:33 AM ^
The point was to respond to his long, thoughtful post with one line containing an incredibly simplistic response.
I thought your's was brilliant. I redacted what I wrote because Wildcat said it better right below me.
My bad.
March 21st, 2010 at 10:07 PM ^
You're being insightful, patient and reasonable. As such, I must tell you that you have no chance in sports journalism or politics.
March 21st, 2010 at 10:12 PM ^
You're Randy Quaid in Major League II. Having the most pessimistic view on each position group. Have fun not looking forward to next season. Why don't you go hibernate in the fall why we all celebrate Michigan's 8-9 wins.
March 21st, 2010 at 10:23 PM ^
"Vile thing, you make my butt sting! I detest you! You're all garbage, all of ya! Back up the truck, back it up!"
March 21st, 2010 at 11:43 PM ^
Vile thing!
You make my butt sting!
You make everything...lousy!
Vile thing!
Vile thing, I'm afraid this team is gonna suck
But I wanna know for sure!
So come over here and watch the game...
(Sorry, you'll have to wait until September to find out how the rest of this goes folks. No point in getting worked up 'til then.)
March 22nd, 2010 at 11:18 AM ^
Boy, if I had a nickel for every time I heard that
March 22nd, 2010 at 12:05 PM ^
I am randy quaid at least 4 times during a Michigan game lol
if we win 8-9 games, however is there a fact-based reason to be that optimistic? How would you answer the concern that depending on that many underclassmen is a bit scary?
March 21st, 2010 at 10:12 PM ^
Take it easy. Our helmets have wings.
March 21st, 2010 at 10:26 PM ^
Hence my optimistic tagline.
I really see eight wins this Fall. In the times I've listened to RR or watched his interviews, you can sense more of an air of confidence and satisfaction with his roster and where the program is at.
It should be fun.
March 21st, 2010 at 10:38 PM ^
Couldn't agree more. I really think a lot of pieces are in place. Our offense looked astonishingly smoother last season than it did the season prior. I can only imagine it getting better.
While there are major concerns on defense, we have the same DC for the first time in a few years. I think our D Line will actually be significantly better this year than it was last, even without BG. While the secondary may have its question marks, It won't be worse than last season.
I see 8-9 wins this season.
I agree with your observation about his interviews. The first year, RR seemed VERY unwilling to state how he felt about the team. He wouldn't comment on beating OSU and was cautious.
Last year, he seemed more upbeat but still cautious.
This year, he seems to have some genuine excitement. I think he knows where the team needs to be and feels that he is on his way there. We should know more as the fall practices start rolling.
March 21st, 2010 at 11:21 PM ^
So do the OPs maxipads.
March 21st, 2010 at 11:31 PM ^
Hey Sally!
Our helmets *got* wings
Our *helmet's* got wings. ;)
our helmets' got wings
March 22nd, 2010 at 10:30 AM ^
my helmet has wings (see avatar).
March 21st, 2010 at 10:15 PM ^
Take your pessimism elsewhere. No reason to be down on the team before they have played a game.
Be better than that. This guy has an opinion that is reasoned and backed by facts, even though each person can extrapolate from those facts differently. It's a perfectly legitimate take whether or not we agree with it. He's obviously thought more about the upcoming season than you have.
Short term...I am concerned.
March 21st, 2010 at 10:17 PM ^
dead wrong about Michigan football 2010.
March 21st, 2010 at 10:18 PM ^
How dare you bring some logic into this sacred place?
Off with your head
March 21st, 2010 at 10:20 PM ^
Does it matter that our offensive line will be better and more experienced and we won't be starting a freshmen QB for the first time in 3 years?
March 22nd, 2010 at 10:50 AM ^
I guess part of my point is that we are grasping at things that never would have caused optimism before.
"Hey, we're not starting a frosh QB this year!" No, we're starting a sophomore, and the depth chart reads two sophs, two frosh. If Tate gets hurt, then we may well be starting a frosh again.
"Hey, we'll have greater depth on the O-line this year!" As stated, b/c of an influx of redshirt freshmen.
Let me repeat: I am a RichRod defender. I think he's a great coach. I want him to stay. I salivate when I think of a RichRod-coached team that is loaded and experienced, with an underclassman or two sprinkled in. The point for 2010 is that we are still depending on too many underclassmen at key positions, especially in our defensive backfield.
March 21st, 2010 at 10:24 PM ^
Some valid points, but look at this...
Offensive Line is where it all starts on offense. Of our projected starting line up we will have 2 five year seniors, 2 four year juniors. More depth and experience equals more consistent play at this position.
QB play should improve as everyone is back with more experience plus the highly touted Gardner.
WR's all our projected starters are Juniors or Sophomores. I don't see a drop in production because of losing Mathews. This should be a slight improvement here too with more guys and more experience.
The only offensive area where we may not be as good as last year is the RB position. However, Minor and Brown were injured often and we have many talented young guys and some with at least a tiny bit of experience and hopefully a better line to run behind.
Offense should be at least a slight improvement.
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Defensively, we return both starting LB's so it is a status quo unless younger talent beats out the 5th year seniors. This can only get better.
Defensive Line, conventional wisdom says losing Brandon Graham should hurt a lot, but I have a feeling it won't hurt that bad. We return everyone else, with more experience and in better shape. RVB, Campbell, Martin and Roh are all beasts. We also have LaLota who red shirted available.
Our secondary will miss Warren, but we essentially return everyone else as we didn't have Cissoko the 2nd half of the year anyways. It is time for the young guys to step up.
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Punting may be a step down, but we have a talented freshman coming in and my understanding is that Wright has a decent leg for punting. I think Gibbons may show some potential as a kicker.
--------
All in all, we can improve on our 5-7 season, go at least 7-5, make a bowl game and keep Rod.
Edit: P.S. I got negged for predicting 5-7 last year. So I am not a blind homer.
March 21st, 2010 at 10:34 PM ^
Agreed on the offensive line, and though we have several freshman looking for playing time on offense, only 1 or 2 freshman will be potential starters.
Our defensive linemen are an average of 20 lbs bigger than last year, and can add to that before the fall. We will be better against the run, but the pass rush will not be what it was with BG.
Wright isn't on the team anymore, he is graduating and chose to move on. Hagerup is our man, and I think he'll do well. Gibbons should also be ready after a year with Barwis to add some power behind his kicks
March 21st, 2010 at 10:41 PM ^
I'm not planning on having to punt that much.
I loved our punter last year but when your punter is that much of a star you have other issues.
Punt less, score a lot!
GO BLUE!
Our offense + RR's aggresiveness = less punting.
I remember you saying that, and I jumped all over you like a little bitch, so here's a +1 for being right.
March 22nd, 2010 at 10:32 AM ^
You think the offense will be only slightly improved? I think Tate getting healthy, bulking up (right...), and getting a year under his belt will help us out hugely. We lost Minor, who was a beast when healthy, but was always hurt. I think Toussaint is going to fill that spot nicely (sans injuries). I really believe our offense is going to straight up explode this year.
It all lies on our achilles heel: the defense.
March 22nd, 2010 at 11:39 AM ^
the optimism of this post. i am a little short on points but would love to +1 this post! good job sir...
What I meant by "Offense should be at least a slight improvement." Is that in a worst case scenario we will have a better offense with the potential for much more. This is of course barring a freak incident where Tate, Denard, and Gardner all break their legs and then half the Oline tears their ACLs.
March 22nd, 2010 at 10:58 AM ^
I feel better about the O-line - provided that we can stay healthy.
I also feel generally good about Tate. Judging his frosh year by frosh standards, he showed an awful lot to be optimistic about. Yes there were picks and mistakes, but he never had the deer-in-the-headlights look that makes you think, "This guy is not a D-1 QB.
RB I also feel pretty good about, as that seems to be the position that freshmen are typically most able to make an impact at right away, and there's good buzz about Toussaint. V Smith, if he is 100% in Sept, is a perfect fit for the system and also an ankle-breaker.
LB's...maybe it can't get worse but that's no guarantee of better any time soon.
Secondary is scariest of all. To throw one talented frosh in there among seasoned vets would be OK. Depending almost entirely on underclassmen is scary, and no one here has said anything fact-based that changes that.
Again, if RichRod stays, I believe he will succeed, in spades, so I'm not a total pessimist either. I just hope he succeeds enough in 2010 to fight on through 2011.
March 22nd, 2010 at 11:14 AM ^
Agreed. Secondary is the only group that scares me - not because I don't think they'll do well but because it is a great unknown.
With great talent (which we have) and great position coaching (maybe?) this unit could be good to great.
I remember Marlin Jackson's strongest year being his freshman year. Woodson was good early as well. I'm more worried about safety than cornerback.
Of all the places on defense where young guys can come in and play right away, it's the secondary. The line, we have RVB sliding over, and the line will be manned by a group, Campbell and upperclassmen, so that'll help. The secondary, where young kids can play, is where the young kids will come in and do just that. We get decent LB play, and our defense could quite frankly be much improved from last year, even with Warren and Graham gone! So don't worry yourself, have faith!
As far as the offense goes... I honestly think it'll be amongst the best in the Big Ten (if not the best). We'll easily have improved play at QB, which is key. We have depth at RB, which helps as we lose Minor/Brown/Grady. And though you don't see it, we even have some depth at WR, helped by the fact that all three freshmen are invloved in spring practice. We're also talking about ways to use Denard Robinson on offense more, which is scary. As far as the offensive line goes, all the talent comes back, and you add to that, talented/hungry youth. The offensive line will be much improved, and a healthy Molk for the season will be huge.
Go Blue!
March 22nd, 2010 at 10:30 PM ^
they could be really deadly...
March 21st, 2010 at 10:20 PM ^
drink more.
March 21st, 2010 at 10:23 PM ^
I've said it before and I'll say it again: This recruiting class goes HEAVY on top--after that, there are too many question marks. Ray Vinnopal, Drew Dileo, heck, even jake Ryan? Let's face it--after the heavies, if these guys were going to other schools (like MSU)--we'd be all, "WTF? A two star from the bayou? LOLZ Good luck hunting aligators, Douchetonio LOLZ"
I think you are right to raise these questions.
We're banking on Vincent Smith--and he couldn't last two games in 2009. And before his injury--wow, 28 whole rushing yards vs OSU?
Our offensive line showed little improvement and when Molk went down, they were gawd-awful. Over on Scout, King Beaver is saying "Well, with Molk in there--it looks great. Without him--my sister could punch through the O-line" Well, he didn't say that, but I infer that there is a serious divide between Molk and any backup.
I think you've got the gist of this season down pat: If UM football has a year like UM basketball did in 2009, we'll have a party up in this mug. If UM football doesn't start getting some breaks, Rich Rodriguez will be cashing huge checks while playing golf during the fall of 2011.
March 21st, 2010 at 10:28 PM ^
Rivals said the same thing about the offensive line. They suggested that Stephen Schilling might even get some snaps at center due to how bad the timing/accuracy of the snaps has been.
March 21st, 2010 at 10:48 PM ^
have
March 21st, 2010 at 11:30 PM ^
I very well may be wrong, but I believe since it is referring to either timing or accuracy, has would be correct. Now if he was referring to snaps, have would be correct.
"how bad the timing has been." "how bad the accuracy has been." "how bad the snaps have been."
Now, I am not pretending to know for sure, so somebody please correct me if I am wrong. I am just trying to stick up for Magnus, because the other post was unnecessary, especially if the guy was wrong.
Don't attempt to correct an English teacher's grammar.
March 21st, 2010 at 10:33 PM ^
would love to know what your scout handle is, jackass
March 21st, 2010 at 10:35 PM ^
It's Jack T Ass.
March 21st, 2010 at 11:42 PM ^
Looks like someone has achieved neg on sight status.
March 21st, 2010 at 10:24 PM ^
...springs eternal. Temper those pessimistic thoughts with those awesome moments from last season. I think we'll be okay, and I think RR get's his 2011 season. When injuries didn't hamper our starters (which was doubly rough because the depth wasn't there at some positions) we played decent football last year. This year will be better.