Playoff play-in scenarios are clear, but what if chaos strikes?

Submitted by Gulogulo37 on

It seems obvious to everyone that the playoff field is shaping up to be Oklahoma, Alabama, Clemson, and the B1G winner, barring any upsets of course.

BUT, who would be in should Alabama and/or Clemson get knocked off? Matt Hinton on twitter says it's Ohio State over Stanford. If Stanford wins the Pac-12, I think that would be completely insane. The only argument you'd have for OSU over them is Stanford has an extra loss. But they'll have played an extra game and won their conference (and their division!). They'll have beaten all the top teams in the Pac-12 (including USC twice) except Oregon. And, of course, they beat Notre Dame. OSU has a blowout win over Michigan and then...? Stanford is only one spot behind OSU in the current playoff rankings and just got what I'd say is a better win (even accounting for the margins and playing on the road) and play another quality opponent next week.

Does anyone else have a shot? Perhaps UNC if they win against Clemson without it being a fluke. I know they haven't played anyone else, but ACC champs with a win over the team who has been sitting in first most of the year sounds pretty good. Florida seems out of it even if they beat Alabama. I don't want MSU in there either, but hell, even if they lose to Iowa, is their resume really worse than OSU's considering they beat them head-to-head in Columbus with backup QBs and beat Oregon?

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The Brain

November 29th, 2015 at 12:09 AM ^

Committee rules are clear.  Conference champions take precedent unless another team is unequivocally one of the best four.  To me, that means both UNC and Stanford would get in over OSU.

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Muttley

November 29th, 2015 at 9:41 AM ^

so they wouldn't be boxed in should four-loss USC win the PAC12 or no offense Florida somehow manage to win the SEC.

Would we be able to say unequivocally that UNC and Stanford are not one of the Top 4 teams in the country after having beaten Clemson and Notre Dame?  I think you could say that about a fluke Florida or USC champion, but not UNC or Stanford.

Plus, remember that Ohio State's dominance over us was one-dimensional based on our weakness.  Michigan State shut down that strategy and I'm fairly sure an Alabama team would absolutely shut it down.

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Muttley

November 29th, 2015 at 10:14 AM ^

 

 

  • Notre Dame 10
  • USC 12 (twice, once away)
  • Washington 26
  • UCLA 28
  • Washington State 49 (away)
 
(based on Sagarin ratings to enable comparison w/ OSU)
 
In contrast, Ohio State's six best wins are
 
  • Michigan 15 (away)
  • Virginia Tech 42
  • Penn State 51
  • Western Michigan 65
  • Minnesota 66
  • Indiana 67 (away)
 
Plus, Ohio State's dominating win over Michigan was based upon a one-dimensional attack that exploited a weakness that's not going to be found in other playoff teams.
 
Do you reward an out-of-conference schedule against #10 Notre Dame, #33 Northwestern (#16 CFP ranking), and #168 Central Florida or #42 Virginia Tech, #65 Western Michigan, #70 Northern Illinois, and #166 Hawaii?
 

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kb

November 29th, 2015 at 12:08 AM ^

Bama losing is the best hope. If UNC wins, a tough decision between UNC and OSU. UNC schedule is worse than OSU even with win over #1, they are far down the rankings, and the loss to South Carolina was worse. Just pray that OSU does not end up in the playoffs.

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alum96

November 29th, 2015 at 12:12 AM ^

Why do people think UNCs schedule is worse than OSUs

Have you looked at OSUs schedule

They played 2 ranked teams all year.  And lost to 1.  Without its QB.

Sagarin has OSU SOS at 61, UNC at 68.  UNC still has to play Clemson so will pass OSU SOS.  But they are essentially a wash today ...61 v 68.

OSU HAS PLAYED NO ONE for 10 weeks. PSU was the toughest opponent it played until last week.

You can make arguments for why OSU or NC belong (NC loss worse etc) but saying one has not playing a tough schedule and the other has is not one of them.  They have identical shit schedules by and large. 

 

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alum96

November 29th, 2015 at 12:17 AM ^

I didnt say UNC is strong schedule. I am saying OSU is a freak show too.  Look at their non conf schedule.  They avoided Iowa, Wisconsin, NW from the west.

OSU in the end will have played UM and MSU as top 30 opponents.  That's it.  UNC will have Clemson and PItt.  That's it.  Both are pretty jokey schedule.

For perspective Baylor's SOS is 65.  A team everyone craps on for awful schedule.  UNC and OSU are right there.

I am not arguing name brand and all that - just arguing the schedule aspect.  OSU and NC are very similar in that one regard.

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doggdetroit

November 29th, 2015 at 1:04 AM ^

OSU would have a few things going for it in this argument (OSU vs UNC) and in my opinion OSU would get in:

They are the defending champs. Last year is not supposed to matter but there may be some sentiment to let OSU defend the title, especially coming off a dominant road performance. This may come into play (right or wrong) considering how similar the teams resumes are.

FCS. The committee has made Baylor its whipping boy the past two years for scheduling such a weak non conference slate. UNC played 2 FCS teams. That is far worse than Baylor. Letting UNC in would send a message to teams across the country that it is OK to schedule cream puffs.

Virginia Tech. The committee looks at comparative outcomes against common opponents. Both teams played VT on the road. OSU won decisively by 22. UNC needed OT to win.

As you said, the two resumes would be similar. However, UNC's would not be overwhelmingly better and likely not enough to trump OSU when you consider these other factors.

UNC would be ACC champs, and that is important to the committee, but again considering how similar the resumes would be, would that be enough considering the ACC is generally 5th among the Power 5 in terms of overall strength?

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ghost

November 29th, 2015 at 4:50 AM ^

The team that would need to be overwelmingly better would be OSU not UNC as UNC wouldbe ACC champs just having knocked off the #! team in the country.  

Last year does not matter.  At all.  Its dumb to say it should.

Using your VT logic ND would have been ahead of OK last week and they were not.  Also you conveniently forgot that UNC beat Illinois by more than OSU did.

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MI Expat NY

November 29th, 2015 at 8:18 AM ^

That "unequivocally one of the top 4 teams" language is going to be hard to overcome for Ohio State.  I just don't think they can meet that standard to get in over an ACC or Pac 12 champ.  They have only played 3 P5 teams with a winning record.  That should be as big of a problem for them as UNC's two wins over FCS opponents.  

If you start looking at the rankings, I think it's pretty clear that UNC is going to move up to at least 9 this week.  Possibly 8 if the committee bumps them past FSU.  If they beat Clemson, they'll essentially automatically jump Clemson, FSU and Iowa/MSU loser.  That has them at least 6th with no consideration for the conference championship.  Stanford is going to be 5 or 6 this week.  How is there a basis for chosing Ohio State as number 4 over UNC or Stanford that isn't based entirely on the eye test?  I just can't see it happening.  I think this logic holds true if Clemson and Alabama both lose.  Having to chose two of the three still leaves Ohio State relying on the eye test.  I don't think that will be enough to overcome the conference championship weight that the committee is required (by their rules and also the political importance of representing as many conferences as possible) to give.  

Ohio State's only chance, in my opinion, is for true chaos to reign with Alabama, Clemson, and Stanford all losing.  There's what, a 2% chance of that?

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Muttley

November 29th, 2015 at 10:23 AM ^

As you said, the two resumes would be similar.

Similar resumes ==> Go with the champion

 

From the College Football Playoff Selection Protocol:

We believe that a committee of experts properly instructed (based on beliefs that the regular season is unique and must be preserved; and that championships won on the field and strength of schedule are important values that must be incorporated into the selection process) has very strong support throughout the college football community.

Under the current construct, polls (although well-intended) have not expressed these values; particularly at the margins where teams that have won head-to-head competition and championships are sometimes ranked behind non-champions and teams that have lost in head-to-head competition.

http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/selection-committee-protocol

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ghost

November 29th, 2015 at 8:34 AM ^

No it doesn't.  Also its just plain dumb to say they would beat the hell out of Stanford.  There is no other word for it.  They might beat Stanford, but it would be a close game.  

You actually have to beat some decent teams along the way.  OSU beat two power 5 teams with a winning record all year and one of those was 7-5 PSU.  Stanford will have beaten 6.

If you extend that to teams that finished at 500 OSU would have 3 and Stanford would 8.  That is not even remotely close.

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ijohnb

November 29th, 2015 at 9:36 AM ^

PAC 12 is really bad man. I think OSU would beat the hell out of them, just like they did a superior Oregon team from the PAC 12 in last years title game. I think they would win 9 out of 10 times. I am not saying I want to see them in the playoff, only that I think they would punish Stanford. Perhaps I am "dumb," I mean if you are dumb you don't really know you are dumb right? Man, all these years and the issue was so obvious......

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rufftime

November 29th, 2015 at 9:15 AM ^

OSU did not choke against MSU.   MSU simply took it to them and controlled both lines of scrimmage.  If not for 2 turnovers, MSU wins 17-0.  If anything, MSU choked with 2 turnovers.  Dantonio's MSU is 2-2 against Urban's OSU team.  Rest of BIG?  0-30.

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Wolverine Devotee

November 29th, 2015 at 12:10 AM ^

Ugh I don't care. 

What I am happy about is that people were even actually talking about us as potentially being in the playoff in year one. Year one!

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winterblue75

November 29th, 2015 at 12:20 AM ^

This is still a place to come talk about the great sport that is college football, even if that talk doesn't involve Michigan. And I'm pretty sure that the "talk" of a two loss UM team wasn't anything more than passing fancy for extreme chaos in the CFP.

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team126

November 29th, 2015 at 12:10 AM ^

We need to upgrade the QB, LB, RB, and secondary - in particular LBs and RBs.  It showed up in the shellacking today.

I am sure Harbaugh will spend more time to think about how to beat up MSU and OSU.

Cheer up - tomorrow is another new day!

Go Blue!

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