Not that I know anything more than I've read, but,
Dorsey = 10% chance
Parker = 60%
Knight = 90%
I'd flip Knight and Parker in your original post and give Dorsey a 30% chance.
All 3: 0%
is that mathematically possible? unless you're saying one of them is 0% likely, regardless of how small each of them is, if they are all greater than zero the probability of getting all three would have to be greater than zero.*
*this assumes independence also.
Assumption the mother of f' ups... if scholarships limit UM to 2 more than zero is very possible.
Independence is a pretty heroic assumption.
their decisions are independent if they all have to make up their mind before learning what the others choose, aren't they? You are correct that if two of them commit and the third decides that's too many safeties and has time to change his mind, then they are not independent.
True, statistically, "the probability of getting all three would have to be greater than zero." But a commit by one...then two, would change the individual probability of the third. To zero? I doubt it, but bouje obviously thinks so.
Sir Isaac Fucking Newton.
(Forgive the language. I've always wanted to say that.)
Until you actually apply it in the real world. And then when you use assumptions and what not the real world screws you.
My point was that I think that we get 1 of them for sure but that there is no way that we can get all 3. All 3 won't happen. But hey being a dick is fun too.
But hey being a dick is fun too.
Someone's got a case of the Mondays!
(Sorry, Office Space was on this weekend.)
shrimp poppers, or extreme fajitas might help...
i'm a dick for pointing out that you may have made a mistake?
the "real world" does not violate mathematical principles. If you think my "assumptions and what not" are incorrect, you could probably point that out without name-calling.
(please no negbang) but I think it will be none of the above. I honestly think there will be a signing day upset or suprise commitment.
100% we land one of the three
Could you please be more precise?
50/50. For all of them.
Either we do or we don't. It's not that hard people
Disagree. Just because there are only two options doesn't mean that there is a 50% chance we sign any one of them. By that logic we have a 50% chance of signing Seantrel Henderson.
In a statistical oddity, it's also 50/50 that we land ALL of the prospects. Either we do or we don't!
With this view, it's a 50/50 chance that the Earth is currently in the process of getting ejected from its orbit by the gravity of a passing star.
50/50 chance that I'm dating a supermodel.
50/50 chance that tomorrow, Brian will die of a freak combination skydiving/blogging incident.
50/50 chance that the iPad (lol feminine products lol) will be successful.
50/50 chance of more MSU football players allegedly performing crimes.
Somehow, the probability (p) that your take on probabilities is incorrect seems to approach 1 as time (t) increases.
I couldn't agree more.
Knight 100% - He said the departure of his potential coach at Rutgers didn't affect him. Obviously, because he's coming to Michigan.
Parker 100% - He said he'd like to get away from home, and there was a Hello: Sean Parker post a while back and I believe everything I read on MGoBlog
Dorsey 0% - I feel like he's already a Seminole.
I agree on Parker and Dorsey. I'm not so sure about Knight.
Dandy Don has 60:40 across the board FWIW.
I'd say we have a good shot at Parker, and I'm still feeling Knight. Dorsey is probably out of reach.
DELETED: Nothing to see here
FWIW Sam is reporting on GBW that the 5 coach in home blew the Dorsey's away. So much so that the parents are all in for Michigan. What that means for Demar is to be seen but it cant hurt to have the parents in our favor.
Parker: 60/40 Michigan over USC
Knight: 50/50 Michigan and Rutgers
Dorsey: 35/35/30 Michigan and FSU over USC (this is before his official to USC)
I just looked up Rashad Knight's profile on Rivals. I know they don't put up all offers received, but showed none from the state of Florida. Did he ever garner interest from instate schools?
Parker - 25% UM seems like a good fit but every insider on the west coast is saying USC. If he was going blue he should have done it by now. (60% USC, 5% Cal, 10% Other)
Dorsey - 5% Every word and action coming from Dorsey indicates he is staying in the south. It seems like he took a free trip because he could. (60% FSU, 15% UF, 20% Other)
Knight - 35% Everyone is saying he's headed to Rutgers but UM still seems like the best opportunity to me, and his earlier leanings may resurface. (50% Rutgers, 15% Other)
Why should Parker have committed by now? I see it would be in your best interest as a Michigan fan for a highly touted recruit to have committed already, but he should commit when he feels like it. I just hope that he picks Michigan when the time comes. Which IIRC, will be early on signing day.
had Hicks going to OSU so that should tell you something. For what its worth I'll take Sam Webb's gut over the so called insiders any day. Parker is Blue.
I wouldn't be surprised if Dorsey ends up here. With the full court press the coaches put on and with help of DRob it is quite possible. Not only that, but the offer for him to also get on the field on the offensive side of the ball has to be enticing. Using your logic, he was supposedly committed to FSU per the so called insiders so why isn't he already a Seminole?
I don't know where you get your info on Knight as he is down to two schools. So who the other 15% is beyond me.
I think we end up with two of the three. My preference would be Parker and Dorsey, but any combination of the three would make me happy.
there are a ton of signing day surprises, so if I'm giving a prediction I'll include a decent chance of the unknown happening.
I WANT these guys to commit, but when their words and actions point the other way...
IIRC, it's been Sean Parker's plan to commit on signing day all along.
was that Parker should have displayed more positive sentiment directly after his visit. Parker started off saying he was going out of state and expressing major interest in M and other non-Cali programs....that seems to have waned in the latter part of his recruitment. It seems to me he's going to stay home. Hope I'm wrong.
No, he shouldn't have.
SP obviously wants to have his moment (which he can't do if he lets on before that time comes).
Parker alone - 90%
Knight alone - 75%
Dorsey alone - 30%
Parker & Knight - 80%
Parker and Dorsey - 62%
Knight & Dorsey - 56%
All 3 - (priceless) 35% Would be a coup of epic proportions!
You completely ignored probability theory just to piss me off didn't you?
When dealing with signing day predictions, percentages are taken out of 428.
Parker has been saying all along that he is waiting till signing day to announce his decision so i'm not shocked he has not committed. As far as percentages..
Parker - 85%
Knight - 70%
Dorsey - 45%
We will know 100% in T-2days 4Hours and 39 minutes. Why is time moving so slow?
one of the three - 100%
2 of the three - 85%
3 of three - 0%
But I'm guessing there is one sleeper out there.
bitter dude, tater. Child, please.