Not that I know anything more than I've read, but,
Dorsey = 10% chance
Parker = 60%
Knight = 90%
so much for that
Place your bets: what are the odds we land Dorsey, Parker, or Knight?
February 1st, 2010 at 12:20 AM
#1
Place your bets: what are the odds we land Dorsey, Parker, or Knight?
February 1st, 2010 at 12:26 AM | 
I'd flip Knight and Parker in
I'd flip Knight and Parker in
February 1st, 2010 at 12:30 AM |
75% Parker
60% Knight
35%
75% Parker
60% Knight
35%
75% Parker
60% Knight
35% Dorsey
February 1st, 2010 at 12:31 AM |
Dorsey: 5%
Knight:
Dorsey: 5%
Knight:
Dorsey: 5%
Knight: 45%
Parker: 80%
February 1st, 2010 at 12:33 AM |
42.
42.
42.
"I drink your milkshake." - Daniel Plainview
February 1st, 2010 at 12:35 AM |
1 of:
1 of:
>90%
2: <25%
All 3: 0%
"A house divided against itself cannot stand"
February 1st, 2010 at 1:30 AM |
is that mathematically
is that mathematically
is that mathematically possible? unless you're saying one of them is 0% likely, regardless of how small each of them is, if they are all greater than zero the probability of getting all three would have to be greater than zero.*
*this assumes independence also.
February 1st, 2010 at 1:41 AM |
Well played.
Well played.
Probability FTW.
February 1st, 2010 at 2:28 AM |
Assumption the mother of f'
Assumption the mother of f'
Assumption the mother of f' ups... if scholarships limit UM to 2 more than zero is very possible.
February 1st, 2010 at 2:37 AM |
Independence is a pretty
Independence is a pretty
Independence is a pretty heroic assumption.
February 1st, 2010 at 4:04 PM |
their decisions are
their decisions are
their decisions are independent if they all have to make up their mind before learning what the others choose, aren't they? You are correct that if two of them commit and the third decides that's too many safeties and has time to change his mind, then they are not independent.
February 1st, 2010 at 9:42 AM |
More than Statistics in Recruiting
More than Statistics in Recruiting
True, statistically, "the probability of getting all three would have to be greater than zero." But a commit by one...then two, would change the individual probability of the third. To zero? I doubt it, but bouje obviously thinks so.
February 1st, 2010 at 9:53 AM |
Thank you
Thank you
Sir Isaac Fucking Newton.
(Forgive the language. I've always wanted to say that.)
February 1st, 2010 at 10:33 AM |
Ya know probability is great and all
Ya know probability is great and all
Until you actually apply it in the real world. And then when you use assumptions and what not the real world screws you.
My point was that I think that we get 1 of them for sure but that there is no way that we can get all 3. All 3 won't happen. But hey being a dick is fun too.
"A house divided against itself cannot stand"
February 1st, 2010 at 10:42 AM |
But hey being a dick is fun
But hey being a dick is fun
But hey being a dick is fun too.
Someone's got a case of the Mondays!
(Sorry, Office Space was on this weekend.)
"Come on, you Wolverines!"
February 1st, 2010 at 11:39 AM |
Some pizza shooters,
Some pizza shooters,
shrimp poppers, or extreme fajitas might help...
...confidence is the stain they can't wipe off...
February 1st, 2010 at 4:12 PM |
i'm a dick for pointing out
i'm a dick for pointing out
i'm a dick for pointing out that you may have made a mistake?
the "real world" does not violate mathematical principles. If you think my "assumptions and what not" are incorrect, you could probably point that out without name-calling.
February 1st, 2010 at 9:37 AM |
I'm going to be bold...
I'm going to be bold...
(please no negbang) but I think it will be none of the above. I honestly think there will be a signing day upset or suprise commitment.
"I tried to but a pencil in the light socket but it was too wide and didn't fit so I used a paperclip."-Terrelle Pryor, Future Rhodes Scholar
February 1st, 2010 at 12:36 AM |
Knight-75%
Parker-80%
Dorsey-
Knight-75%
Parker-80%
Dorsey-
Knight-75%
Parker-80%
Dorsey-30%
It's not who you were or are, it's who you will be.
February 1st, 2010 at 12:36 AM |
100% we land one of the three
100% we land one of the three
100% we land one of the three
“The blue in our ribbons may fade, our trophies may become tarnished, the gleam of our medals lose luster, but the emotional experiences of joy and elation will never be forgotten.”
February 1st, 2010 at 12:39 AM |
Parker-85 Dorsey-50 Knight-
Parker-85 Dorsey-50 Knight-
Parker-85
Dorsey-50
Knight-50
Those who stay will be champions!
February 1st, 2010 at 12:50 AM |
Could you please be more
Could you please be more
Could you please be more precise?
Thank you.
'M-Burns', I'll never have better facial hair than this...
February 1st, 2010 at 12:38 AM |
50/50. For all of them.
50/50. For all of them.
50/50. For all of them.
February 1st, 2010 at 5:27 AM |
Yup
Yup
Either we do or we don't. It's not that hard people
February 1st, 2010 at 10:46 AM |
Disagree. Just because there
Disagree. Just because there
Disagree. Just because there are only two options doesn't mean that there is a 50% chance we sign any one of them. By that logic we have a 50% chance of signing Seantrel Henderson.
"When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing." - Bo Schembechler
February 1st, 2010 at 12:29 PM |
Wow
Wow
In a statistical oddity, it's also 50/50 that we land ALL of the prospects. Either we do or we don't!
February 1st, 2010 at 5:07 PM |
-
-
With this view, it's a 50/50 chance that the Earth is currently in the process of getting ejected from its orbit by the gravity of a passing star.
50/50 chance that I'm dating a supermodel.
50/50 chance that tomorrow, Brian will die of a freak combination skydiving/blogging incident.
50/50 chance that the iPad (lol feminine products lol) will be successful.
50/50 chance of more MSU football players allegedly performing crimes.
Somehow, the probability (p) that your take on probabilities is incorrect seems to approach 1 as time (t) increases.
February 1st, 2010 at 12:55 AM |
7
7
7
“Beer is proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy.” - Benjamin Franklin
February 1st, 2010 at 10:12 AM |
I couldn't agree more.
I couldn't agree more.
I couldn't agree more.
February 1st, 2010 at 12:46 PM |
no +1?
no +1?
no +1?
“Beer is proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy.” - Benjamin Franklin
February 1st, 2010 at 12:56 AM |
Knight 100% - He said the
Knight 100% - He said the
Knight 100% - He said the departure of his potential coach at Rutgers didn't affect him. Obviously, because he's coming to Michigan.
Parker 100% - He said he'd like to get away from home, and there was a Hello: Sean Parker post a while back and I believe everything I read on MGoBlog
Dorsey 0% - I feel like he's already a Seminole.
I'm a cucumber. | Twitter
February 1st, 2010 at 10:52 AM |
I agree on Parker and Dorsey.
I agree on Parker and Dorsey.
I agree on Parker and Dorsey. I'm not so sure about Knight.
February 1st, 2010 at 1:01 AM |
Dandy Don has 60:40 across
Dandy Don has 60:40 across
Dandy Don has 60:40 across the board FWIW.
I'd say we have a good shot at Parker, and I'm still feeling Knight. Dorsey is probably out of reach.
February 1st, 2010 at 3:03 AM |
DELETED
DELETED
DELETED: Nothing to see here
Welllughhh. Yaknow.
February 1st, 2010 at 1:05 AM |
FWIW Sam is reporting on GBW
FWIW Sam is reporting on GBW
FWIW Sam is reporting on GBW that the 5 coach in home blew the Dorsey's away. So much so that the parents are all in for Michigan. What that means for Demar is to be seen but it cant hurt to have the parents in our favor.
Those who stay will be champions!
February 1st, 2010 at 1:15 AM |
Parker: 60/40 Michigan over
Parker: 60/40 Michigan over
Parker: 60/40 Michigan over USC
Knight: 50/50 Michigan and Rutgers
Dorsey: 35/35/30 Michigan and FSU over USC (this is before his official to USC)
February 1st, 2010 at 1:20 AM |
I just looked up Rashad
I just looked up Rashad
I just looked up Rashad Knight's profile on Rivals. I know they don't put up all offers received, but showed none from the state of Florida. Did he ever garner interest from instate schools?
Greetings from Bolivia.
"It's special how the real true people hang together. And if you don't support the program you're not a true Michigan guy. It's that simple." - Gary Moeller
February 1st, 2010 at 1:21 AM |
I'm not sure we get any of them
I'm not sure we get any of them
Parker - 25% UM seems like a good fit but every insider on the west coast is saying USC. If he was going blue he should have done it by now. (60% USC, 5% Cal, 10% Other)
Dorsey - 5% Every word and action coming from Dorsey indicates he is staying in the south. It seems like he took a free trip because he could. (60% FSU, 15% UF, 20% Other)
Knight - 35% Everyone is saying he's headed to Rutgers but UM still seems like the best opportunity to me, and his earlier leanings may resurface. (50% Rutgers, 15% Other)
February 1st, 2010 at 1:29 AM |
Why should Parker have
Why should Parker have
Why should Parker have committed by now? I see it would be in your best interest as a Michigan fan for a highly touted recruit to have committed already, but he should commit when he feels like it. I just hope that he picks Michigan when the time comes. Which IIRC, will be early on signing day.
Greetings from Bolivia.
"It's special how the real true people hang together. And if you don't support the program you're not a true Michigan guy. It's that simple." - Gary Moeller
February 1st, 2010 at 8:47 AM |
Those same insiders
Those same insiders
had Hicks going to OSU so that should tell you something. For what its worth I'll take Sam Webb's gut over the so called insiders any day. Parker is Blue.
I wouldn't be surprised if Dorsey ends up here. With the full court press the coaches put on and with help of DRob it is quite possible. Not only that, but the offer for him to also get on the field on the offensive side of the ball has to be enticing. Using your logic, he was supposedly committed to FSU per the so called insiders so why isn't he already a Seminole?
I don't know where you get your info on Knight as he is down to two schools. So who the other 15% is beyond me.
I think we end up with two of the three. My preference would be Parker and Dorsey, but any combination of the three would make me happy.
February 1st, 2010 at 11:17 AM |
Historically
Historically
there are a ton of signing day surprises, so if I'm giving a prediction I'll include a decent chance of the unknown happening.
I WANT these guys to commit, but when their words and actions point the other way...
February 1st, 2010 at 10:29 AM |
IIRC, it's been Sean Parker's
IIRC, it's been Sean Parker's
IIRC, it's been Sean Parker's plan to commit on signing day all along.
Three-quarters of the world is covered by water; the rest is covered by Charles Woodson.
February 1st, 2010 at 11:44 AM |
my point
my point
was that Parker should have displayed more positive sentiment directly after his visit. Parker started off saying he was going out of state and expressing major interest in M and other non-Cali programs....that seems to have waned in the latter part of his recruitment. It seems to me he's going to stay home. Hope I'm wrong.
February 1st, 2010 at 1:26 PM |
No, he shouldn't have.
SP
No, he shouldn't have.
SP
No, he shouldn't have.
SP obviously wants to have his moment (which he can't do if he lets on before that time comes).
Three-quarters of the world is covered by water; the rest is covered by Charles Woodson.
February 1st, 2010 at 1:38 AM |
Aside from hoping we get all three
Aside from hoping we get all three
Parker alone - 90%
Knight alone - 75%
Dorsey alone - 30%
Parker & Knight - 80%
Parker and Dorsey - 62%
Knight & Dorsey - 56%
All 3 - (priceless) 35% Would be a coup of epic proportions!
What the mind can conceive and believe, the mind can achieve and...Those Who Stay WILL Be Champions.
February 1st, 2010 at 10:33 AM |
You completely ignored
You completely ignored
You completely ignored probability theory just to piss me off didn't you?
February 1st, 2010 at 11:06 AM |
Part of Kolmogorov's lesser-known work
Part of Kolmogorov's lesser-known work
When dealing with signing day predictions, percentages are taken out of 428.
February 1st, 2010 at 1:40 AM |
Parker has been saying
Parker has been saying
Parker has been saying all along that he is waiting till signing day to announce his decision so i'm not shocked he has not committed. As far as percentages..
Parker - 85%
Knight - 70%
Dorsey - 45%
HAIL TO THE VICTORS VALIANT, HAIL TO THE CONQUERING HEROES!
February 1st, 2010 at 2:27 AM |
We will know 100% in T-2days
We will know 100% in T-2days
We will know 100% in T-2days 4Hours and 39 minutes. Why is time moving so slow?
February 1st, 2010 at 7:00 AM |
I say
I say
one of the three - 100%
2 of the three - 85%
3 of three - 0%
But I'm guessing there is one sleeper out there.
"There are a lot of fine schools and a lot of very good football programs around the country, but when you combine all the factors, only one comes out on top -- the UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN." Bo, 1998
February 1st, 2010 at 1:20 PM |
you are one
you are one
bitter dude, tater. Child, please.
"There are a lot of fine schools and a lot of very good football programs around the country, but when you combine all the factors, only one comes out on top -- the UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN." Bo, 1998
I'd flip Knight and Parker in your original post and give Dorsey a 30% chance.