Not that I know anything more than I've read, but,
Dorsey = 10% chance
Parker = 60%
Knight = 90%
I'd flip Knight and Parker in your original post and give Dorsey a 30% chance.
All 3: 0%
is that mathematically possible? unless you're saying one of them is 0% likely, regardless of how small each of them is, if they are all greater than zero the probability of getting all three would have to be greater than zero.*
*this assumes independence also.
Assumption the mother of f' ups... if scholarships limit UM to 2 more than zero is very possible.
Independence is a pretty heroic assumption.
their decisions are independent if they all have to make up their mind before learning what the others choose, aren't they? You are correct that if two of them commit and the third decides that's too many safeties and has time to change his mind, then they are not independent.
True, statistically, "the probability of getting all three would have to be greater than zero." But a commit by one...then two, would change the individual probability of the third. To zero? I doubt it, but bouje obviously thinks so.
Sir Isaac Fucking Newton.
(Forgive the language. I've always wanted to say that.)
Until you actually apply it in the real world. And then when you use assumptions and what not the real world screws you.
My point was that I think that we get 1 of them for sure but that there is no way that we can get all 3. All 3 won't happen. But hey being a dick is fun too.
But hey being a dick is fun too.
Someone's got a case of the Mondays!
(Sorry, Office Space was on this weekend.)
shrimp poppers, or extreme fajitas might help...
i'm a dick for pointing out that you may have made a mistake?
the "real world" does not violate mathematical principles. If you think my "assumptions and what not" are incorrect, you could probably point that out without name-calling.
(please no negbang) but I think it will be none of the above. I honestly think there will be a signing day upset or suprise commitment.
100% we land one of the three
Could you please be more precise?
50/50. For all of them.
Either we do or we don't. It's not that hard people
Disagree. Just because there are only two options doesn't mean that there is a 50% chance we sign any one of them. By that logic we have a 50% chance of signing Seantrel Henderson.
In a statistical oddity, it's also 50/50 that we land ALL of the prospects. Either we do or we don't!
With this view, it's a 50/50 chance that the Earth is currently in the process of getting ejected from its orbit by the gravity of a passing star.
50/50 chance that I'm dating a supermodel.
50/50 chance that tomorrow, Brian will die of a freak combination skydiving/blogging incident.
50/50 chance that the iPad (lol feminine products lol) will be successful.
50/50 chance of more MSU football players allegedly performing crimes.
Somehow, the probability (p) that your take on probabilities is incorrect seems to approach 1 as time (t) increases.
I couldn't agree more.
Knight 100% - He said the departure of his potential coach at Rutgers didn't affect him. Obviously, because he's coming to Michigan.
Parker 100% - He said he'd like to get away from home, and there was a Hello: Sean Parker post a while back and I believe everything I read on MGoBlog
Dorsey 0% - I feel like he's already a Seminole.
I agree on Parker and Dorsey. I'm not so sure about Knight.
Dandy Don has 60:40 across the board FWIW.
I'd say we have a good shot at Parker, and I'm still feeling Knight. Dorsey is probably out of reach.
DELETED: Nothing to see here
FWIW Sam is reporting on GBW that the 5 coach in home blew the Dorsey's away. So much so that the parents are all in for Michigan. What that means for Demar is to be seen but it cant hurt to have the parents in our favor.
Parker: 60/40 Michigan over USC
Knight: 50/50 Michigan and Rutgers
Dorsey: 35/35/30 Michigan and FSU over USC (this is before his official to USC)
I just looked up Rashad Knight's profile on Rivals. I know they don't put up all offers received, but showed none from the state of Florida. Did he ever garner interest from instate schools?
Why should Parker have committed by now? I see it would be in your best interest as a Michigan fan for a highly touted recruit to have committed already, but he should commit when he feels like it. I just hope that he picks Michigan when the time comes. Which IIRC, will be early on signing day.
had Hicks going to OSU so that should tell you something. For what its worth I'll take Sam Webb's gut over the so called insiders any day. Parker is Blue.
I wouldn't be surprised if Dorsey ends up here. With the full court press the coaches put on and with help of DRob it is quite possible. Not only that, but the offer for him to also get on the field on the offensive side of the ball has to be enticing. Using your logic, he was supposedly committed to FSU per the so called insiders so why isn't he already a Seminole?
I don't know where you get your info on Knight as he is down to two schools. So who the other 15% is beyond me.
I think we end up with two of the three. My preference would be Parker and Dorsey, but any combination of the three would make me happy.
IIRC, it's been Sean Parker's plan to commit on signing day all along.
No, he shouldn't have.
SP obviously wants to have his moment (which he can't do if he lets on before that time comes).
Parker alone - 90%
Knight alone - 75%
Dorsey alone - 30%
Parker & Knight - 80%
Parker and Dorsey - 62%
Knight & Dorsey - 56%
All 3 - (priceless) 35% Would be a coup of epic proportions!
You completely ignored probability theory just to piss me off didn't you?
When dealing with signing day predictions, percentages are taken out of 428.
Parker has been saying all along that he is waiting till signing day to announce his decision so i'm not shocked he has not committed. As far as percentages..
Parker - 85%
Knight - 70%
Dorsey - 45%
We will know 100% in T-2days 4Hours and 39 minutes. Why is time moving so slow?
one of the three - 100%
2 of the three - 85%
3 of three - 0%
But I'm guessing there is one sleeper out there.
bitter dude, tater. Child, please.
is Parker to Michigan. He's feeling mighty confident in his gut.
An appropriately timed Mr. Burns "excellent" clip is always worthy of the +1. Well timed, sir.
I think it's likely that we get two out of the three.
My money's on Dorsey and Parker.
I think it's 100% that at least one commits. I think Parker's in the bag, Dorsey's moving there and Knight is moving away from us towards Rutgers.
has already gotten verbal commits from a LOT of DB's for the 2010 class and he wants to go somewhere with fewer competitors for a spot in the same class.
Just speculating, though...
as well. Plus Schiano has a lot of ties to the Florida area, so he may know the coaches better than Michigan.
Rutgers has had some recent success with getting guys to the NFL, so it's not a terrible choice, especially if he can definitely play early.
Rashad got the arm from Tony Soprano...oops...I meant James Gandolfini
I am not a stats guy, but I would be over the moon if we somehow got all three. I think it is likely that we can get two and if I had my pick I would hope for Dorsey and Parker (but I really like Knight as well, he looks like he will be a stud).
Bottom line is, I can't wait for Wednesday to see who finishes out this class!
Dorsey's #s are higher because he took an official to FSU this past weekend and was spotted in a UM shirt. Parker has been in the bag the whole time and Knight is looking for his spot to fill.
I'll take the unders on each of those, but hope you are accurate.
Optimistic. All-in. Six-sigma for all three.
As these signing day announcements go, does anyone have accurate times on when each of these player announces during the day? Most of the time, each school has a ceremony or some other preassigned time when said recruit will announce, fax in his sheet, etc. I'd be curious to see if each of them are announcing around the same time or if one is announcing far later in the day and whether or not that might hurt/help Michigan's chance with that recruit. For instance with Sean Parker being on the west coast, that would mean he'd have the luxury of seeing who has already commited here. Doubt if he'd announce other than Michigan if only Knight or Dorsey came, but if they both come, what would he choose? Especially considering he seems the biggest "lock" of the three. I know Sean Parker is announcing on ESPNU's NSD show but can't find a time.
Signing Day Surprise 10%
Parker - 90% (I trust Mr. Webb)
Knight - 50%
Dorsey - 40%
Dorsey isn't going to USC. I look at it this way: I gather that kid wants to stay close to home, so I have Florida St. at 55%. The only way he would consider leaving is if he has some buddies at a school away from home--enter Michigan. Throw on top of that Mom and Dad feeling UM, our chances increase, although do not surpass FSU, IMO.
but who has watched the interview on espn.com with demar and jonathan dowling? (type "future gators ready to take over" in the search box) i love that southern high pitched twang demar has. i really want this guy b/c 1) he flys around and smacks people in the mouth 2) he will add much needed talent to the safety spot 3) he had cool hair 4) he talks cool.
Ryan Ermani's show on Local Detroit Sports Talk Radio 1130, has a "Recruiting Insider" on, who said he was on the phone with his Florida Connects, who say that Dorsey is a lock to FSU, so I would put the chances for him at <5%. Here's to hoping RR can close on one or both of the other two.
I'm not knowledgeable enough to throw percentages around.
Parker - 100%
Knight - 50%
Dorsey - 49%
Since I have absolutely no knowledge of what any of these kids are thinking, I'm not going to offer an opinion, mostly because it's almost purely speculative.
I think we get Knight and strike out on the other two... still, I am happy with at least 1 of 3
That's what i think will happen.
That's not really saying what will happen.
its 100 percent we land both parker and (insert other name), really dont see dorsey turning blue.
EDITED, base on the news of knight going to rutgers
You can't do that (and yes I did just comment on t his so that you couldn't re-edit the post)