The pick six: Jake Rudock or Grant Perry at fault?
Amongst the usual collection of opinions of varying quality and sobriety, there has been some debate tonight about the pick-six thrown by Rudock; specifically, whether or not Grant Perry shares blame for the route he ran. CoverZero, for one, is adamant that Perry broke off his route and bears responsibility for the interception.
Since it appears that Perry ran the wrong route on the first interception and was the target on the overthrown second, this is an attractive idea, especially if one wants to protect Rudock's reputation. Perry is, after all, a freshman, and Rudock is not known for throwing interceptions.
Unfortunately, this interpretation does not fit the facts on the ground.
@AceAnbender Trying this again sorry https://t.co/A1ZAYyCHyz
— Steve King (@stephenrjking) September 4, 2015It is third down and three yards to go. Perry, a yard in the backfield in the slot, is assigned a quick out (I'm not sure what the technical name is, but this is close enough). He takes four full-speed strides forward, makes one juke move, and breaks outside toward the sideline, looking for the ball. At no time does he "break off" his route. Perry is just past the line to gain--this is where he needs to be to get a first down if he catches the ball. This is clearly the route he has been designed to run; this is the route he runs.
Now, Perry's route isn't terrific. His juke is quick but not deceptive, and as he runs to the sideline he leaks slightly downfield rather than running straight. It's not terrible, but it is there and it does increase the defender's window.
Rudock is watching Perry the whole time; Perry appears to be the primary read in this play. He watches Perry juke. He sees Perry running toward the sideline. He winds up and throws after Perry has already begun to break. The throw is accurate--it is aimed right at where Perry's hands will be when the ball gets there, past the line to gain.
However, the problem is that Utah's Justin Thomas has blanketed the route. He is not at all thrown off by Perry's deke; he immediately breaks with the route, inside of the receiver. Unlike Perry, he is not constrained by the line to gain; he is free to run back toward the line of scrimmage. By the time Rudock's pass is in the air, Thomas is cutting in front of Perry, running at an angle toward the line of scrimmage, cutting off any chance Perry has of catching the pass. Ballgame.
Perry's route isn't perfect; he could have made the window smaller for Justin Thomas. However, the window was still there. The only way Perry could have prevented this interception would have been to alter his route in such a way that he was running perpendicular to Rudock's line of sight, at a 45 degree angle toward the line of scrimmage, retreating from the line to gain. That would have been stupid--the purpose of his route is to gain a first down.
Rudock should have never made the throw.
September 4th, 2015 at 5:31 AM ^
OTOH, Rudock had to get rid of it quickly - not at all sure he had time to scan for too many other options. It's just one of those things the QB has to "feel" when there's a defender who's ready to jump like that. Rudock will improve over this performance, but honestly, if he was great he likely wouldn't be here. Right?
As others have said, the over throws are actually more troubling than the pick 6...
September 4th, 2015 at 7:50 AM ^
why not look around and see that the conner at the top is 10 yards away from the reciever. Throw a quick pass and let the WR make a play. I think it's on the QB
September 4th, 2015 at 9:32 AM ^
Missed several reads that I saw watching live. Wish I could watch the all22 film. The pass he forced downfield to AJ Williams being the most egregious. Jake Butt was wide open down the right sideline for a huge gain, if not a touchdown. Rudock never even looked his way, he stared down AJW the whole time.
September 4th, 2015 at 10:12 AM ^
He also missed a blatantly open Isaac at the top of the screen on this specific pass. Never even looked anywhere which leads me to believe he was never making a read with this pass. He was always going to throw it to Perry regardless.
This gave me flashbacks to OSU in OT when Gardner threw it to an insanely covered Dileo. Everyone in the building knew what was coming and they forced it there anyway.
September 4th, 2015 at 12:38 PM ^
I think JH will clean that up in the film session. . .
but yeah, way wide open up top there. Painful.
September 4th, 2015 at 9:45 AM ^
That guy was running a deep route and would not have been looking back for a throw that Rudock would have had to make because the pocket was collapsing at that moment. With more time he could have checked down, he didn't have time. Might have eaten it, but he hadn't done that all game and given the situation in the game he was going to make a throw.
Give the nickel back some cred here, he made a great play on the ball.
September 4th, 2015 at 10:02 AM ^
September 4th, 2015 at 10:02 AM ^
September 4th, 2015 at 11:39 AM ^
Rudock never even glances to his right to see the easy 1st down. I'm shocked a 5th year senior QB didn't have the awareness to see that and then proceed to make that awful decision to throw into a clear pick-6
September 4th, 2015 at 2:20 AM ^
September 4th, 2015 at 5:36 AM ^
Like everyone else on this blog, if not the entire M Community, Gentry is the one who fascinates me... the physicality in the QB run game would be nice. Wilson runs were some of (most of?) Utah's biggest plays in this game.
September 4th, 2015 at 6:49 AM ^
I agree that from what we've seen of Morris to date, there's no reason to dump Ruddock after that one game. But, I have become leary of unproven commodities. It's easy to be excited about the next guy that's full of potential and hasn't made any mistakes yet, even if only because he's never played. But, that was Morris once, same with Gardner, etc. I'll get excited about the next guy once he's proven he can do something. Until then I just cautious about someone with no experience.
September 4th, 2015 at 7:11 AM ^
First, in general, although a lot of people went on about run blocking, at the end of the day we did hold Utah to 3.5 yards per rush as a team, so really not a bad performance at all for a first game and all the jitters than undoubtedly come with it.
As for Travis Wilson, the rushing stats - 12 attempts for 53 net yards - amount to 4.4 yards per attempt and this was actually better on a play-over-play basis than what Booker was managing (just a shad over 3 yards per rush, in his case). It will be interesting if when they do play Gentry in the future (whenever this might be) to see if they use him like Utah used Wilson.
September 4th, 2015 at 9:12 AM ^
Not a good choice. I also agree with this:
I'd like to see Shane start next week. Let's see what he's got.
...with one caveat. As long as the OR on the depth chart is legit. I can see both sides of the argument here:
- OR is legit: Rudock didn't blow it on the first INT. The second one sailed on him and the third happenned after the "point of no return". (That is, the 4th quarter is no time to bring in an inexperienced QB off of the bench cold in a game that requires a comeback.)
- OR is NOT legit: Rudock's first half was awful. Missing Chesson twice on the long throw (which according to previous reports was one that Morris was adept at) was 2 touchdowns that were missed in a game that sorely needed Michigan to make a big play on offense. The run game was hampered by Michigan's inability to take the top off of the D (which Chesson seemed able to do). This was further evidenced on the last drive where Utah kept the box stacked against the run and short passing game when Michigan needed 14 points in 2 minutes.
September 4th, 2015 at 2:21 AM ^
The problem is Rudock didn't see the field and realize that going to Ty Isaac would be an easy pitch and catch.
September 4th, 2015 at 2:32 AM ^
Or, you know, the wideout near the sideline (can't catch the number) that has ten yards of space. We've called that play before; would have been an easy five yards.
Oh well. Perry was the primary read; he should have gone to the second option.
EDIT: That "wideout" was Isaac, who you were talking about. That does mean that it's harder to target him--A QB won't have the same "I stare you down when I'm going to you" rapport with the RBs, but the point remains. And my response here is mildly superfluous.
September 4th, 2015 at 7:17 AM ^
September 4th, 2015 at 6:04 AM ^
September 4th, 2015 at 9:23 AM ^
The other 2 receivers in that clip also had separation. So from the replay anyone but Perry would have been a better choice.
September 4th, 2015 at 10:10 AM ^
Look again at the moments after the snap.
1) Isaac is running a straight fly down the field; for this call to work he and Rudock would have needed to communicate a changing of the route basically as the snap is occurring. I can't imagine that's an easy thing to do.
2) Even if they did, the slot receiver's route took a defender directly into the passing lane of what you're suggesting is an easy pitch and catch, and he looked ready to pounce. I'm not convinced that this is as easy as you think it is.
September 4th, 2015 at 9:44 AM ^
I was screaming at the TV as soon as he motioned out that way that the safety was late and deep getting over there. If he throws him the ball it's an easy 5 yard completion and a first down. Obviously, hinesight is 20/20, but that was a HUGE missed read. I think Ty Isaac can be a serious mismatch coming out of the backfield like that I think the only reason he didn't play more/get more touches is that he is weak in pass protection. He missed a key block that would have given Rudock enough time to step into a throw and hit Butt over the middle. He missed the block and Rudock had to rush the throw a bit and it fell incomplete. I'd like to see him get the ball more, but see the coaches' reservation in giving him more playing time.
September 4th, 2015 at 2:23 AM ^
I think the bigger concern is that Rudock made a bunch of bad throws/decisions that weren't INTs... Or in addition to the INTs.
I thought he was supposed to be the guy who takes care of the ball and doesn't lose games? If he's not, than why not try the "dangerous" guy with the big arm and mobility?... Unless of course it was never even close and Shane was never really in it?
But I'm just thinking/drinking aloud... I do trust Harbaugh (even more so on this than in general). If Rudock is still the guy I'm sure it's the right decision.
September 4th, 2015 at 2:26 AM ^
It does not matter if Perry ran the correct route or not. You should not be targeting a true freshmen receiver where there are three DB's nearby.
If that was to Butt, sure, INT would be bad, but understandable.This is just a bad, bad decision.
Rudock's decision making leaves a lot to be desired.
September 4th, 2015 at 2:24 AM ^
Rudock doesn't like Chesson or Perry and that's why he throws bad passes to them. He loves Butt and Darboh and that's why he throws them good balls. It never has anything to do with the quality of the receiver and the routes they run. It's always the QB's fault.
September 4th, 2015 at 2:26 AM ^
FTR I think people are overdoing it in harshness toward Rudock; suggestions that Morris should play, while uncommon, are out there, and I think that's ridiculous. Rudock has obviously earned the starting job, and there were a number of times where he both made the correct read and made a good throw. The inaccurate throws were the second pick and the bombs, which appear to be difficult for him. He rarely ever completely biffed a throw, and I think he'll make better decisions as he continues to get experience in this system.
He'll be fine. Perry will be fine, too. I anticipate a lot of growth in this offense. But let's not kid ourselves about the interception here.
September 4th, 2015 at 5:57 AM ^
Seemed to me that Utah was able to stack the box and Michigan couldn't pass them out of it. Hit a couple of the deep throws and those safeties stop walking down.
September 4th, 2015 at 11:46 AM ^
The deep ball seems to be something that will eventually come to Rudock. He'll get more reps in during practice and figure out how much to lead these receivers. Besides, he wasn't that off - I'm willing to bet the receivers would have at least gotten a hand on the ball if they had dove. I wouldn't be too worried.
September 4th, 2015 at 2:26 AM ^
...so why not also acknowledge that it could be neither Perry nor Rudock's fault, but perhaps the fact that the DB made a great play on the ball out of great coverage?
September 4th, 2015 at 2:39 AM ^
It was definitely a great play. However, the coverage was visibly good, and I think Rudock should have gone to a second read. When DG was intercepted on the 2-point conversion against OSU in '13, the defense did a great job covering the play Michigan ran; that did not stop us from lamenting that the play never should have been re-called after the TO.
This post is mostly to clarify, since there are some people claiming that Perry is at fault for the third interception.
September 4th, 2015 at 4:02 AM ^
I'll up this another level.
It was a great play that should not have been thrown to a first read true freshman who runs a decent route, yet doesn't have enough experience to read when he is covered, not going to make a play and needs to just prevent a pick.
September 4th, 2015 at 2:27 AM ^
September 4th, 2015 at 2:28 AM ^
September 4th, 2015 at 2:40 AM ^
The idea of the post was to analyze the play and demonstrate which player deserved primary responsibility for the failure, and that player is Jake Rudock. The last sentence was the conclusion. You know, the answer.
Perry wasn't supposed to go any further downfield--it was a timing route designed for a four-yard gain. More distance keeps Rudock waiting in the pocket for a beat longer.
Your percentage seems pretty good.
EDIT: You weren't being mean, but my response here sounds snarky, which I hadn't intended. Sorry. My response is intended to be good-natured, not mean.
September 4th, 2015 at 2:58 AM ^
Edit: nvm that was supposed to reply to the post above and didn't.
I see your point was to show why it wasn't Rudock's fault. Gotcha
September 4th, 2015 at 2:30 AM ^
It looked like a poor throw to me.
But it also appears that Perry is rounding off routes (just my opinion, he may be running the correct routes, I don't know).
I am not a particular fan of Rudock's throwing motion overall and on plays of this sort is where the "short arm" motion doesn't get the ball to the spot quick enough.
This is a boom, boom play and the acurracy and precision has to be perfect.
Look it was a mistake and a bad one no doubt, but there is at least the flashes of ability as these guys become more in tune with each other.
I agree that the throw should not have been made because it has to be too perfect and any mistake is an almost guranteed pick 6.
IMO: A slant route works better here - but for whatever reason, we haven't really had the QB to throw these consistently since Henne.
September 4th, 2015 at 2:33 AM ^
I think the more interesting question is...
Is Brian's endorsement of a QB, a kiss of death? Last couple of years, he predicted very good things for DG and he imploded. Now after praising Rudock for taking care of the ball and how good his TD to INT ratio will be, he promptly throws 3 INT's.
Brian is the QB Killer!!!
September 4th, 2015 at 2:35 AM ^
September 4th, 2015 at 3:12 AM ^
September 4th, 2015 at 2:35 AM ^
September 4th, 2015 at 2:41 AM ^
Rudock has been much better than Shane in practice. We have backup qb syndrome like we did last year with Gardner and Shane. If Rudock is the best we have, then we have to ride with him. Morris has thrown a lot of picks and Rudock didn't last year. Hopefully, regression of the mean occurs.
September 4th, 2015 at 11:49 AM ^
The most popular player on a struggling football team is the backup quarterback.
September 4th, 2015 at 3:09 AM ^
September 4th, 2015 at 3:36 AM ^
He locked onto a reciever who was blanketed and made a throw he can't make. End of story. Doesn't mean it wasn't a great play, but when the DB is right on top of the receiver and ready to break like that, that is a dangerous throw.
September 4th, 2015 at 9:29 AM ^
agree, Perry ran a sloppy route, the DB made contact and pushed him off, Perry then faded somewhat and allowed the DB to cut in front. Rudock was pressured and had to get rid of it. Even Harbaugh said only 1 INT was on Rudock, I'll trust him.
September 4th, 2015 at 10:12 AM ^
He telegraphed the throw
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
September 4th, 2015 at 4:03 AM ^
From row 50-whatever, I thought the O line had a very rough night. It looked like Deveon was making a lot of something out of very little for most of the game. And to not get 1 yard on two straight plays?
That's relevant here because...I think the deep throws where Jake was long were all due to pressure. The O line was getting beat up the middle quite a bit and I think that affected Jake's timing on a number of throws.
That aside:
- Pick 1: on a receiver - there were two in the area, so I'm interested to see who Brian thinks was at fault
- Pick 2: bad throw - the WR was open
- Pick 3: bad throw - should have never tried that window; on that down and distance, it was begging to be jumped
September 4th, 2015 at 7:59 AM ^
Had to make a yard running to the left when your guard is getting pushed into the backfield. Please let someone step up and beat Braden out. On the QB sneak he got pushed so far back into the backfield that he actually made the tackle on Rudock by taking his leg out.
September 4th, 2015 at 4:37 AM ^
The db pulls Perry and this not only knocks the receiver off but gives him the leverage then to jump the route! Easily could have been flagged! IMO
September 4th, 2015 at 4:42 AM ^
That is true. But after getting the no calls on a few instances where the contact was even more blatant, I wasn't shocked that it wasn't called.
If a very weak call on Peppers is going to be called, you should probably call this as well. Because technically, it was as much pass intererence as that one.