It's interesting that Vegas has Iowa and MSU at equal odds. Is that a function of Vegas not wanting 120 different figures, or what? Iowa is not supposed to be good this year, while MSU is going to get its share of preseason division schlobbing.
Phil Steele's 2012 projections (UM best in BigTen)
Ferentz > Dantonio in national perception.
I agree in general -- Ferentz > Dantonio in national perspective. But I wonder ... if true, is that more a function of how long Ferentz has been in the role? I ask because my impression is Ferentz (and Iowa) is a well-liked coach (and program) but tends to stumble when the stakes are the highest. Dantonio is relatively new on the big stage ... I wonder if any difference in perception about him is just lack of data points. Don't know ... just musing.
He went 11-2, 10-3, and 10-2 from 2002-2004. Then he had 3 seasons of mediocrity, and came back and went 9-4 and 11-2 in 2008 and 2009.
This is the difficulty for programs like Iowa, MSU, Illinois, Purdue... after several years of success, they think they're on top to stay. Doesn't work that way. If Iowa has another mediocre season next year, they'll go back to the middle of the B1G pack in nearly everyone's mind. It's very difficult to pull a Wisconsin or South Carolina, and lift a program out of mediocrity for a prolonged period.
Probably has more to do with Iowa having a larger fanbase and thusly will have more bets placed for them to win. Although it almost always coincides with who's the better team, odds are created based on the casinos paying out the least amount of money possible (which is why odds are very rarily in the bettor's favor for Michigan. Too many of us will put money down on the Wolverines to win no matter if they're going to compete or not).
I guess I didn't realize Iowa had a fanbase that much bigger than Sparty.
Via Nate Silver at NYTimes (http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/the-geography-of-college-football-fans-and-realignment-chaos/):
Edit: No, I didn't evaluate the methods behind this but it passes the eyeball test.
While I do like the chart, and I'm glad you posted it, I doubt Vegas does a number on their odds for the extra 128,135 fans that Iowa has. That has to be statistically insignificant when you look at the other reasons people lay money down on a team. It makes more sense when it's poor, poor Northwestern compared to M/Ohio.
There must be some sort of chart available to the public somewhere that shows bets placed in dollars on specific college football teams (that would probably be a better way to gauge what we're looking for). I would go look myself, but I'd assume googling gambling on college sports at work would be quite frowned upon. Anyone up to the task?
I like the chart. And OSU with most fans doesn't surprise me much -- OSU is in many ways the only college football game in the state. Other teams exist, but my sense is fans of, say, BGSU are also fans of OSU ... whereas in Michigan it's either U-M or MSU, but not likely both. I offer that as a rough parallel. Whether this relates to betting odds I can't say.
That definitely has something to do with. When I was leaving the BGSU hockey arena there were some O-H...I-O calls being thrown around. /coolstorybro'd
I have a hard time believing Iowa has more fans than Nebraska. I don't know about that one.
That's a great article and Nate is the best there is, but he got lots of criticism for basing the analysis on http://www.commoncensus.org/sports_map.php?sport=5 -- basically using a non-scientific count of support for various schools.
I think it passes the smell test overall, but there are some where it doesn't (Georgia > Georgia Tech or Iowa > Nebraska).
pretty much...at certain levels they just group them into the same number
I feel its a little high but definately worthy. They always say the last game sets the tone for the next season and matching up #7 against a potential #1 should be great to start the season.
I can't take any analysis too seriously that doesn't mention the schedule.
What are Ohio's odds to win the National Championship?
About the same as it would be without the NCAA sancations!!!
I could use a good sancation.
You just stumbled onto Meyer's pitch line from last season.
how much do want to wager?
"The Fighting Irish get the nod here not so much because they are a Top 10 favorite heading into next season but more because so many fans have strong opinions on ND one way or another and the odds makers know this."
I will mention it now and I will mention it numerous times throughout today’s blog but this is not MY preseason Top 10 for next year, it is where I project the AP Top 10 to come out at the start of the season.
Just returned from Vegas I put $20 on Michigan to win at 30-1. I also put $20 on the B-Ball team winning the championship at 60-1.
What casino did you get MIchigan at 30-1? Thanks.
At Lagasse's Staduim
Don't we have 8 returning starters on D? Roh, Ryan, Demens, Morgan, Countess, Floyd, Gordon and Kovacs?
They must have counted Woolfolk as a starter.
15 of the 18 guys who played in the Sugar Bowl on D are back. A large group of those guys were freshmen who should be expected to make a nice leap next year (Ryan, Morgan, Countess, Beyer, Ash, and Clark). That group of 15 doesn't include highly touted recruits like Washington, Furman, Robinson, Taylor and Hollowell or guys who have made a considerable on-field contribution like Hawthorne and Cam Gordon.
Throw in the incoming class and this is a defense that looks to be very strong for quite some time.
don't look at the defensive line losses and lack of productive play from the backups coming in next year as a major problem for the defense? I hate to be a debbie downer, but I do. Defensive line is the most important part of the D by far, and I think ours will be weak, barring a huge turnaround/leap from BWC and others. Right now I'm very concerned, particularly about Bama running power right at us.
you were probably one of the people saying michigan's D had no chance of being that improved last year either..
Our D-Line will not be as bad as you think it will.. Teams aren't gonna just run all over us.
I think Roh will take over just fine for RVB, don't see a huge drop off, BWC will prove he is the real deal and Pipkins will push him to improve. Our overall depth will be better and experience is obviously much better. I cannot wait for Alabama game, we may not win but we will compete, of that I am certain.
We only lose two guys who were significant contributors in the bowl game. You can't get much better than that and still have a good defense to begin with.
Both RVB and Martin were fantastic players, but you are underestimating how well the other guys played and how many of them there are to choose from. BWC was a very effective player last year (2 sacks and a couple nice pressures/hits as a backup), he just didn't play a lot of minutes because we had two all-conference DT. The fourth and fifth guy in the rotation are going to get even fewer opportunities to shine. You essentially can't physically have two guys like RVB and Martin (both long-term starters) AND have a bunch of super experienced talent waiting in the wings to take their place.
If you can't find two solid starters and a backup or two out of BWC (5-star senior with quality experience/production), Washington (4-star RS junior), Ash (4-star RS sophomore), Wilkins (4-star RS sophomore), maybe Black (junior with lots of experience), and 5-6 highly touted freshmen, then something has probably gone wrong.
Combine that with an increase everywhere else across the board in talent, depth, and experience, not to mention what should be a big uptick in edge pass rush from the maturation of Ryan, Beyer, and Clark (and possibly the return of Cam Gordon) and I think the defensive line and the D as a whole will be just fine.
over-estimate the depth and potential of the backups in the middle of the D-Line. There was reason RVB played every single snap in the Sugar Bowl, and it wasn't because he was so good (he is of course) it was because the coaches didn't have confidence in his backups. Of course I hope you are right
I didn't know that you were in the coaches' huddles to know why RVB played all game in the Sugar Bowl. That changes everything.
Seriously? Hoke let his senior take himself out when he needed/wanted to. What you seem to be underestimating is the jump for all these guys in the second year of a competent defensive coordinator's system. They were already starting to get it last year, as evidenced by the monumental jump in defense effectiveness. Imagine what another off-season to make that defense second nature will do.
The major loss, when discussing the defensive line, is the lack of leadership up front with Martin and RVB gone. If another guy steps up, they should be an even more effective unit than last year. I'm not trying to downplay the contributions of RVB and Martin, but I think we see better "team defense" next year.
The only concern I have with this ranking is that I hope it doesn't get the boys too confident. I know Hoke will keep them grounded, though. #7 sounds about right to start.
were quoted as saying that RVB HAD to play the whole game--it was not an option. He was told in practices before the game, as was Martin, that they needed to do extra coinditioning work because they were not going to be substituted for.
What was your defensive outlook last year at this time? Im guessing you were expecting much worse results a year ago so If we can turn it around after 2010's results I like our chances.
I always buy his pre-season magazine. I respect his work! But old Phil had us in the Toilet (pizza) Bowl last year. He didn't realize the magic and Sugar that our new coaches would be able to spread!
we trust. Man this guy just has all momentum on our side since he arrived in Ann Arbor. He is the man no if and or butts.
unless you count Jake.
Sounds good. It will be interesting to see how we navigate through that tough schedule.
If Denard is not throwing picks at close to a 1:1 ratio, and Toussaint plays like he did 2nd half meaning Denard doesn't have to run 20 times and likely get hurt- and our D stays top 25- then yeah we are a top 10 team with the best odds to win the big ten. Any of those things happen (lots of picks, Toussaint isn't a 100 yds/game back, or D steps back) then we are looking at a very tight big ten race with lots of marginal teams competing (no top ten teams in conference with the champ having two losses in conference).
That pretty much sums it up imo. Defensive line is a concern and so is OL for that matter. We'll see!
say OL is a concern maybe just center. I am okay with the other 4 spots on the line they all played some good minutes last year wether starting or coming in as back ups. Y ou just can't replace David Molk without some growing pains.
to overstate how important Martin and RVB were to last year's team. I can't see their production being replaced straight up so the LBs and DBs will have to pick up the slack. Success this season will depend on how well the coaches and players adjust to this shift.
Just so a bunch of idiot OSU fans would bet the odds and lose their money.
It's hilarious to think of the possibilities though. I wonder if that's against the law?
in saying Oklahoma would win the national title in 2012.
Yes, he liked Alabama too, but he was salivating about Oklahoma in his 2012 mag.
So it makes me nervous for him to be raining accolades down on Michigan already.
If Michigan wins games on the road vs. Alabama, Notre Dame, Nebraska and Ohio State in the same season, that would be the shiznit.
I expect Michigan to compete and be favored in our road tests.
I don't want to get too overeager, but all of our games next year are winnable, even Alabama. We're lucky that we play them for the first game of the season. Other than this game, it wouldn't be a stretch to say that we are favored for the rest of our games.
Nebraska will be rough, but if Martinez continues to think football is like shot put, we should escape with a close win. MSU is gutted, and Hoke will refuse to let UM lose this game on home soil. Finally, I do think Ohio will be good next year, but only 8-4 to 9-3 good. They will undoubtedly have some attrition and growing pains to deal with.
An 11-1 year is not out of the question, but having an undefeated conference schedule will be difficult. I think 10-2, maybe even 9-3, is more realistic. Still, UM has a great chance of returning to Pasadena next year.