Phil Steele's 2012 projections (UM best in BigTen)

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February 27th, 2012 at 4:20 PM
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Homesick Alien
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Phil Steele's 2012 projections (UM best in BigTen)

Has Michigan 7th in his 2012 AP Top Ten Projection. http://blog.philsteele.com/2012/01/30/2012-preseason-ap-top-10-projection/

7 Michigan-The Wolverines were one of the biggest surprises in college football last year winning 11 games and a BCS Bowl under first-year HC Brady Hoke. This year they return 7 starters on offense led by QB Denard Robinson and RB Toussaint who should be more comfortable in the 2nd-year of the new offense. UM also return 7 starters from a defense that allowed just 17.4 ppg (#6) which was nearly an 18 ppg improvement from 2010! Michigan finished #12 in the final AP poll and figure to be the favorites to win the Big Ten this year.

 

He also posted some Vegas odds to win the 2012 BCS National Championship. Michigan is best in the Big Ten at 22/1, Neb 35/1, Wisc 40/1, Iowa and MSU at 75/1. http://blog.philsteele.com/2012/02/14/odds-to-win-2012-13-bcs-national-championship/

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February 27th, 2012 at 4:24 PM | It's interesting that Vegas (Score:1)
justingoblue
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It's interesting that Vegas has Iowa and MSU at equal odds. Is that a function of Vegas not wanting 120 different figures, or what? Iowa is not supposed to be good this year, while MSU is going to get its share of preseason division schlobbing.

Go Blue!

February 27th, 2012 at 4:30 PM | I think it's a function of the HC. (Score:5 Normal)
74polSKA
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Ferentz > Dantonio in national perception.

February 27th, 2012 at 5:10 PM | I agree in general -- Ferentz (Score:1)
DonAZ
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I agree in general -- Ferentz > Dantonio in national perspective.  But I wonder ... if true, is that more a function of how long Ferentz has been in the role?  I ask because my impression is Ferentz (and Iowa) is a well-liked coach (and program) but tends to stumble when the stakes are the highest.  Dantonio is relatively new on the big stage ... I wonder if any difference in perception about him is just lack of data points.  Don't know ... just musing.

Midwestern born and raised ... now living in the heat of the Arizona desert

February 27th, 2012 at 5:42 PM | Ferentz has done it longer (Score:4 Normal)
Bodogblog
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He went 11-2, 10-3, and 10-2 from 2002-2004.  Then he had 3 seasons of mediocrity, and came back and went 9-4 and 11-2 in 2008 and 2009. 

This is the difficulty for programs like Iowa, MSU, Illinois, Purdue... after several years of success, they think they're on top to stay.  Doesn't work that way.  If Iowa has another mediocre season next year, they'll go back to the middle of the B1G pack in nearly everyone's mind.  It's very difficult to pull a Wisconsin or South Carolina, and lift a program out of mediocrity for a prolonged period.

February 27th, 2012 at 4:47 PM | Probably has more to do with (Score:2)
jhender85
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Probably has more to do with Iowa having a larger fanbase and thusly will have more bets placed for them to win.  Although it almost always coincides with who's the better team, odds are created based on the casinos paying out the least amount of money possible (which is why odds are very rarily in the bettor's favor for Michigan.  Too many of us will put money down on the Wolverines to win no matter if they're going to compete or not).

February 27th, 2012 at 4:51 PM | Yea, I realize that. (Score:1)
justingoblue
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I guess I didn't realize Iowa had a fanbase that much bigger than Sparty.

Go Blue!

February 27th, 2012 at 5:06 PM | Wonder no more (Score:4 Normal)
lakeside
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Via Nate Silver at NYTimes (http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/the-geography-of-college-football-fans-and-realignment-chaos/):

 

Edit: No, I didn't evaluate the methods behind this but it passes the eyeball test.

Man ball. Formerly, somebody else.

February 27th, 2012 at 5:10 PM | While I do like the chart, (Score:1)
justingoblue
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While I do like the chart, and I'm glad you posted it, I doubt Vegas does a number on their odds for the extra 128,135 fans that Iowa has. That has to be statistically insignificant when you look at the other reasons people lay money down on a team. It makes more sense when it's poor, poor Northwestern compared to M/Ohio.

Go Blue!

February 27th, 2012 at 5:19 PM | There must be some sort of (Score:2)
jhender85
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There must be some sort of chart available to the public somewhere that shows bets placed in dollars on specific college football teams (that would probably be a better way to gauge what we're looking for).  I would go look myself, but I'd assume googling  gambling on college sports at work would be quite frowned upon.  Anyone up to the task?

February 27th, 2012 at 5:18 PM | I like the chart.  And OSU (Score:2 Normal)
DonAZ
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I like the chart.  And OSU with most fans doesn't surprise me much -- OSU is in many ways the only college football game in the state.  Other teams exist, but my sense is fans of, say, BGSU are also fans of OSU ... whereas in Michigan it's either U-M or MSU, but not likely both.  I offer that as a rough parallel.  Whether this relates to betting odds I can't say.

 

Midwestern born and raised ... now living in the heat of the Arizona desert

February 27th, 2012 at 9:53 PM | That definitely has something (Score:1)
Lionsfan
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That definitely has something to do with. When I was leaving the BGSU hockey arena there were some O-H...I-O calls being thrown around. /coolstorybro'd

If you're doing nothing, how do you know when you're finished?

StraightDave owes me a steak dinner

February 28th, 2012 at 12:06 AM | I have a hard time believing (Score:2)
jmblue
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I have a hard time believing Iowa has more fans than Nebraska.  I don't know about that one.  

February 28th, 2012 at 2:17 PM | Nate Silver (Score:1)
spock n roll
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That's a great article and Nate is the best there is, but he got lots of criticism for basing the analysis on http://www.commoncensus.org/sports_map.php?sport=5 -- basically using a non-scientific count of support for various schools.

I think it passes the smell test overall, but there are some where it doesn't (Georgia > Georgia Tech or Iowa > Nebraska).

February 28th, 2012 at 9:20 AM | pretty much...at certain (Score:1 Normal)
SysMark
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pretty much...at certain levels they just group them into the same number

February 27th, 2012 at 4:24 PM | Nice (Score:1)
jwilkins3
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I feel its a little high but definately worthy. They always say the last game sets the tone for the next season and matching up #7 against a potential #1 should be great to start the season.

February 28th, 2012 at 12:29 PM | I can't take any analysis too (Score:2)
MattisonMan
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I can't take any analysis too seriously that doesn't mention the schedule.

-Hail-
 
February 27th, 2012 at 4:25 PM | What are Ohio's odds to win (Score:5 Normal)
brandanomano
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What are Ohio's odds to win the National Championship?

Special Teams means special times!

February 27th, 2012 at 4:26 PM | About the same as it would be (Score:5 Normal)
Allin4Blue
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About the same as it would be without the NCAA sancations!!!

February 27th, 2012 at 4:38 PM | I could use a good sancation. (Score:3 Normal)
Brown Bear
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I could use a good sancation.

I poop excellence
February 27th, 2012 at 4:45 PM | Definately! (Score:1)
Smash Lampjaw
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Nice catch.

February 27th, 2012 at 5:25 PM | Definitely was! (Score:1)
lakeside
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Tremendus, even.

Man ball. Formerly, somebody else.

February 27th, 2012 at 6:08 PM | it has begun (Score:2)
Wisconsin Wolverine
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http://inception.davepedu.com/

February 27th, 2012 at 5:00 PM | You just stumbled onto (Score:2)
1484
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You just stumbled onto Meyer's pitch line from last season. 

Hail.

February 27th, 2012 at 4:57 PM | i'll give you 100-1 right now (Score:1)
leftrare
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how much do want to wager?

February 27th, 2012 at 4:27 PM | lol Irish (Score:5 Normal)
Bryan
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"The Fighting Irish get the nod here not so much because they are a Top 10 favorite heading into next season but more because so many fans have strong opinions on ND one way or another and the odds makers know this."

I have a Fandom Endurance III merit badge

February 27th, 2012 at 4:28 PM | An important caveat from the column: (Score:5 Normal)
Erik_in_Dayton
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I will mention it now and I will mention it numerous times throughout today’s blog but this is not MY preseason Top 10 for next year, it is where I project the AP Top 10 to come out at the start of the season.

It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. -- Yogi Berra

                         

February 27th, 2012 at 4:29 PM | Odds (Score:2)
Farmhouse Funk
Joined: 06/26/2010
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Just returned from Vegas I put $20 on Michigan to win at 30-1. I also put $20 on the B-Ball team winning the championship at 60-1.

February 27th, 2012 at 4:37 PM | What casino did you get (Score:1)
tommya14
Joined: 06/30/2008
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What casino did you get MIchigan at 30-1?  Thanks.

February 27th, 2012 at 4:52 PM | Palazzo (Score:2)
Farmhouse Funk
Joined: 06/26/2010
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At Lagasse's Staduim

February 27th, 2012 at 4:33 PM | Don't we have 8 returning (Score:2)
WolvinLA2
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Don't we have 8 returning starters on D? Roh, Ryan, Demens, Morgan, Countess, Floyd, Gordon and Kovacs?

They must have counted Woolfolk as a starter.

February 27th, 2012 at 4:58 PM | To expand (Score:3 Normal)
PurpleStuff
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15 of the 18 guys who played in the Sugar Bowl on D are back.  A large group of those guys were freshmen who should be expected to make a nice leap next year (Ryan, Morgan, Countess, Beyer, Ash, and Clark).  That group of 15 doesn't include highly touted recruits like Washington, Furman, Robinson, Taylor and Hollowell or guys who have made a considerable on-field contribution like Hawthorne and Cam Gordon.

Throw in the incoming class and this is a defense that looks to be very strong for quite some time.

It is spelled HOKEAMANIA.  Our coach is an ass-kicking American citizen, not one of the Beatles, for Christ's sake!

February 27th, 2012 at 5:09 PM | I guess you (as well as others) (Score:3 Normal)
wolverine1987
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don't look at the defensive line losses and lack of productive play from the backups coming in next year as a major problem for the defense? I hate to be a debbie downer, but I do. Defensive line is the most important part of the D by far, and I think ours will be weak, barring a huge turnaround/leap from BWC and others. Right now I'm very concerned, particularly about Bama running power right at us.

"Everyone gets dumped Gabe. Let me give you some advice: a little coverup on your Adams Apple will make it appear smaller. Which will make you appear less like a transvestite." 

February 27th, 2012 at 5:13 PM | you were probably one of the (Score:1)
switch26
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you were probably one of the people saying michigan's D had no chance of being that improved last year either..

 

Our D-Line will not be as bad as you think it will..  Teams aren't gonna just run all over us.

February 28th, 2012 at 4:01 PM | D-Line (Score:0)
February 27th, 2012 at 5:36 PM | You can't bring back everybody (Score:2)
PurpleStuff
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We only lose two guys who were significant contributors in the bowl game.  You can't get much better than that and still have a good defense to begin with. 

Both RVB and Martin were fantastic players, but you are underestimating how well the other guys played and how many of them there are to choose from.  BWC was a very effective player last year (2 sacks and a couple nice pressures/hits as a backup), he just didn't play a lot of minutes because we had two all-conference DT.  The fourth and fifth guy in the rotation are going to get even fewer opportunities to shine.  You essentially can't physically have two guys like RVB and Martin (both long-term starters) AND have a bunch of super experienced talent waiting in the wings to take their place.

If you can't find two solid starters and a backup or two out of BWC (5-star senior with quality experience/production), Washington (4-star RS junior), Ash (4-star RS sophomore), Wilkins (4-star RS sophomore), maybe Black (junior with lots of experience), and 5-6 highly touted freshmen, then something has probably gone wrong. 

Combine that with an increase everywhere else across the board in talent, depth, and experience, not to mention what should be a big uptick in edge pass rush from the maturation of Ryan, Beyer, and Clark (and possibly the return of Cam Gordon) and I think the defensive line and the D as a whole will be just fine.

 

It is spelled HOKEAMANIA.  Our coach is an ass-kicking American citizen, not one of the Beatles, for Christ's sake!

February 28th, 2012 at 11:30 AM | Fair enough but I think you (Score:1)
wolverine1987
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over-estimate the depth and potential of the backups in the middle of the D-Line. There was reason RVB played every single snap in the Sugar Bowl, and it wasn't because he was so good (he is of course) it was because the coaches didn't have confidence in his backups. Of course I hope you are right

"Everyone gets dumped Gabe. Let me give you some advice: a little coverup on your Adams Apple will make it appear smaller. Which will make you appear less like a transvestite." 

February 28th, 2012 at 3:16 PM | I didn't know that you were (Score:1)
jonvalk
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I didn't know that you were in the coaches' huddles to know why RVB played all game in the Sugar Bowl. That changes everything.



Seriously? Hoke let his senior take himself out when he needed/wanted to. What you seem to be underestimating is the jump for all these guys in the second year of a competent defensive coordinator's system. They were already starting to get it last year, as evidenced by the monumental jump in defense effectiveness. Imagine what another off-season to make that defense second nature will do.



The major loss, when discussing the defensive line, is the lack of leadership up front with Martin and RVB gone. If another guy steps up, they should be an even more effective unit than last year. I'm not trying to downplay the contributions of RVB and Martin, but I think we see better "team defense" next year.



The only concern I have with this ranking is that I hope it doesn't get the boys too confident. I know Hoke will keep them grounded, though. #7 sounds about right to start.

February 29th, 2012 at 8:34 PM | You are incorrect, actually the coaches (Score:1)
wolverine1987
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were quoted as saying that RVB HAD to play the whole game--it was not an option. He was told in practices before the game, as was Martin, that they needed to do extra coinditioning work because they were not going to be substituted for.

"Everyone gets dumped Gabe. Let me give you some advice: a little coverup on your Adams Apple will make it appear smaller. Which will make you appear less like a transvestite." 

February 28th, 2012 at 4:59 AM | What was your defensive outlook last year at this time? (Score:2)
rice4114
Joined: 08/26/2010
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What was your defensive outlook last year at this time? Im guessing you were expecting much worse results a year ago so If we can turn it around after 2010's results I like our chances.

February 27th, 2012 at 4:34 PM | Phil Steele? (Score:1)
BlueUPer
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I always buy his pre-season magazine.  I respect his work!  But old Phil had us in the Toilet (pizza) Bowl last year.   He didn't realize the magic and Sugar that our new coaches would be able to spread!

 

February 27th, 2012 at 4:40 PM | In Hoke (Score:2 Normal)
manchild56
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we trust. Man this guy just has all momentum on our side since he arrived in Ann Arbor. He is the man no if and or butts.

21 years of coaching and every senior who stayed had at least 1 big ten title... That is what " Those who stay will be champions" will really get you Ohio native Bo Schembechler.

February 27th, 2012 at 5:58 PM | No ifs, ands, or butts, (Score:4 Normal)
Victor Hale II
Joined: 12/28/2011
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unless you count Jake.

February 27th, 2012 at 4:50 PM | Sounds good (Score:3 Normal)
MichiganMan20
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Sounds good. It will be interesting to see how we navigate through that tough schedule.

I hate ohio. Thats all you need to know.

February 27th, 2012 at 4:51 PM | #7 (Score:2 Normal)
VermontMichiganFan
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If Denard is not throwing picks at close to a 1:1 ratio, and Toussaint plays like he did 2nd half meaning Denard doesn't have to run 20 times and likely get hurt- and our D stays top 25- then yeah we are a top 10 team with the best odds to win the big ten.  Any of those things happen (lots of picks, Toussaint isn't a 100 yds/game back, or D steps back) then we are looking at a very tight big ten race with lots of marginal teams competing (no top ten teams in conference with the champ having two losses in conference).

February 27th, 2012 at 5:10 PM | Yeah (Score:2)
Medic
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That pretty much sums it up imo. Defensive line is a concern and so is OL for that matter. We'll see!

February 27th, 2012 at 5:14 PM | I wouldn't (Score:1)
manchild56
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say OL is a concern maybe just center. I am okay with the other 4 spots on the line they all played some good minutes last year wether starting or coming in as back ups. Y ou just can't replace David Molk without some growing pains.

21 years of coaching and every senior who stayed had at least 1 big ten title... That is what " Those who stay will be champions" will really get you Ohio native Bo Schembechler.

February 27th, 2012 at 5:20 PM | There's Really No Way (Score:1)
UM Indy
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MGoPoints: 1401

to overstate how important Martin and RVB were to last year's team.  I can't see their production being replaced straight up so the LBs and DBs will have to pick up the slack.  Success this season will depend on how well the coaches and players adjust to this shift.   

"Better to have died as a small boy than to fumble this football" -- John Heisman

February 27th, 2012 at 5:37 PM | I wish Vegas gave OSU odds at winning the B1G (Score:3 Normal)
Space Coyote
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Just so a bunch of idiot OSU fans would bet the odds and lose their money.

4/23/13 - Denard Robinson's NFL Future, Part II

February 27th, 2012 at 9:57 PM | It's hilarious to think of (Score:2 Normal)
Lionsfan
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It's hilarious to think of the possibilities though. I wonder if that's against the law?

If you're doing nothing, how do you know when you're finished?

StraightDave owes me a steak dinner

February 27th, 2012 at 5:53 PM | Steele touts his accuracy, but he screwed up big time (Score:1)
markusr2007
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in saying Oklahoma would win the national title in 2012.

Yes, he liked Alabama too, but he was salivating about Oklahoma in his 2012 mag.

So it makes me nervous for him to be raining accolades down on Michigan already.

If Michigan wins games on the road vs. Alabama, Notre Dame, Nebraska and Ohio State in the same season, that would be the shiznit.

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