Phil Steele Predicts Michigan / Alabama
Per @philsteele042:
My Computer for Bama/Mich calls for Bama to have a 196-155 rush edge, a 245-182 pass edge outgaining them (441-337) with a 31-21 proj score.
UM vs Bama Sept 1 - Dallas, TX Cowboys Stad. S/'99 the National Champ from the prev yr is 13-0 with an avg win of 45-13 in season opener.
This will be the first reg ssn gm between the two tms as the prior 3 have all come in bowls. UM won the L/gm ('99 Orange Bowl) 35-34.
Bama did not face a dual threat QB like D Robinson LY and has just 5 ret sts from the best D in CFB LY but they still have my #3 rated D.
UM is off 1st 11-win ssn S/'97 and is a veteran tm w/13 ret st'rs. The biggest matchup edge is UA's #1 OL vs a rebuilt UM DL w/1 ret st'r.
UM only faced 2 ranked tms away from home LY and were outgained 710-434 in those but got a fortunate win over VT in the bowl.
Only once all yr in 2012 did Bama's D give up 2 TD's vs an FBS foe but that might happen here.
Still games like this are won up front at the LOS and Bama has the edges. Roll Tide 31-17!
While I don't think M will win, I don't expect them to get blown out. Obviously a lot of haters are calling for a complete demolition of the Wolverines, but I don't see it.
We will win this game. I'm serious.
I just can't see it though, I agree with Steele, especially his comment about the advantage IMO Bama has on the LOS.
Thankfully that has been Hokes #1 priority since joining Michigan - rebuild the trenches. And he has done an unbelievable job. But it won't show for another 2 years.
I absolutely agree with Phil and you on this one, we lose by double digits, and it may in fact be ugly in the first half. We just are not up to Alabama's trench strength yet. It will take an extraordinary effort by Denard and some key TO's to be able to come close or pull this one out.
this game will come down to TOP. If we can keep their O off the field and prevent them getting into a rhythm ( i.e. can we move the ball on the ground with Denard and Fitz) we have a chance.
\We keep them having to play catch up, or stabilish a sense of urgency/must score for their O and we should probably be OK.
I like our O vs their D, but this game will be won and lost in our front 7 vs their front 6.
I don't quite understand what you're getting at. Didn't you just say that if your team plays better than our team on both sides and has significantly more points throughout, that you'll win? And that the difference will be in the trenches? Man, you just reinvented the wheel - I hope someone lets Saban know what you guys are up to.
Seriously, though, there will be a lot less possessions in this game than you guys might be used to. TOP is a factor, but not nearly as much as field position and turnover margin.
Also, why you seem to like your O against our D, I'll never understand. I'm taking nothing away from your O, but you'll not see a better D unless you play in the Nat'l title game or the NFC East. I'm afraid you guys are sleeping on what Bama's gonna bring to Dallas.
I don't know if we will win, but I don't see Alabama as this unbeatable force as others do. It greatly benefits UM that this game is at the beginning of the season, with Alabama breaking in several new starters. I don't doubt that Bama will be able to run the ball, but I also think we will be able to limit their passing offense with our improved secondary play. I look at it this way:
Alabama rush offense vs. UM rush defense - advantage Alabama
Alabama pass offense vs. UM pass defense - advantage Michigan
UM rush offense vs. Alabama rush defense - advantage Michigan
UM pass offense vs. Alabama pass defense - advantage Alabama
It is my opinion that these two teams are much more even than others think, but UM has the difference maker in Denard Robinson. Again, I am not predicting a UM win, but I don't see this as a for sure Alabama win as Phil Steele and wolverine1987 do.
I watched you guys closely last year as my roommate was a Mich Grad, and Mich is better than many people give you credit for. However, if you think Mich has the advantage rushing against Bama's rushing D, you're crazy. There's not a team in CFB for which that is true. We can agree to disagree, but if you think you have a rushing advantage over a likely top 3 rushing D and top 5 total D, I'd like to hear why.
You are basing your opinion on last year, which is fine, but really has no effect on the first game of this year. If this were the last game of the season, I would say advantage Alabama. It is my opinion that Denard and Fitz will be the best QB/RB rushing tandem that Alabama will see all season, and I think they will have some success running the ball.
I'm not basing my opinion on last year at all.
Alabama returns 2 of 3 defensive lineman, with both returning starters being first-3-round NFL talents. Our nose, Jessie Williams, is a freak of nature that should be the first NT taken in the draft, and Square should go no lower than the 3rd round. The other End is a first year starter, but is not inexperienced and is a playmaker. Both ILB's are returning starters, and both will be drafted (Mosely and Johnson). The weak link is at outside linebacker, as we will have 2 new starters there. However, both are monsters who move well, and playing the run should be their strength - their weakness should be communication, presnap adjustments, and/or reads. Athletically, they're awesome.
Put simply, I will be shocked if Bama doesn't have the best run D in the country next year, as 4 our our fron 7 will undeniably be drafted. Our scheme is also as modern as it gets in defending the run, as we will always have 7 in the box, no matter the personnel or scheme We will also rarely bring in 8 to stop the run. Saban believes in stopping the run with 7 - period.
I very much believe Michigan is a good running team, as I studied many of your games last year. Robinson is the fastest player in CFB and is also the most dangerous in space. I believe Fitz is good, but IMO there are easily 4 better backs in the SEC: Lattimore (SC), Lacy (Bama), Davis (Ark), and whoever's the best of LSU's bunch. I'd say 5 if Crowell wasn't dismissed from Georgia.
You're Oline is pretty good, but you lost your center who anchored the group. And while your size is decent and you've done an admirable job getting bigger from RichRod's spread days, your size is not a strength. You are not going to push around Bama's Dline. I think that your Oline's strength is quickness and pulling, not brute strength.
I say all that to say that Michigan is a good running team, but I personnally think you're overselling Fitz a bit. I do very much think that you should and will try to run it against Bama, and run it downhill and hit it fast. Their is also a decent likelihood that you will have some success, but to think that you have an advantage in that department is maize-and-blue koolaid talk.
I also do no think Michigan will be the best running team we face next year. I believe both LSU and SoCar (if we see them in the SEC Champ game) are better overall running teams.
As a reference, our starting front 7:
---Line:
NT: Jesse Williams – SR 6’4’ 320
RIGHT END: Damien Square – SR 6’2” 290
LEFT END: Ed Stinson – JR 6’4” 280/Quinton Dial – SR 6’6” 290
---LB’s:
*1 - Nickel/Dime #1 Mike - CJ Mosley - JR 6’3” 240 (3-year starter and best LB)
WILL: 1 – Trey Depreist – SO 6’2” 245/CJ Mosley - JR 6’3” 240 (3-year starter and best LB)
* Nickel/Dime – Adrian Hubbard SO - 6’6” 245
SAM: 1- Adrian Hubbard – SO 6’6” 248
JACK: 1 - Xzavier Dickson – SO 6’3” 250
this was a lot.
THe reason people oversell Fitz is because of one reason. THink about it this way.
We line up shotgun, with TE and RB opposite. Assuming you are locked on WR 1 on 1 with CB and have a cover 2 safety, that leaves 7 guys on the front.
When you dive option on the Will, you almost have to roll one of those safeties up to back up Denard running right past your LB. That leaves essentially a SDE, a 3 Tech and the Mike and the SAM to cover a C, G, T, TE and Fitz,
So, the obvious option is to roll the second safety up, however Saban knows that we have the QB Oh Noes!
So.. the question you ask yourself is, do you like Fitz running behind 4 blockers on 4 tacklers? And I do. I really do.
You're premise is flawed.
1) We play the pass a million different ways - man, zone, combo coverages, and so on ad nauseum. However, in your aforementioned scenario, if we have a corner locked one-one-on with a WR, he's locked and has no safety help. No. Safety. Help. And the above "2-deep" safety doesn't have the responsibilty you think he does.
2) Our DB's do not react early in order to cover a potential broken responsibility of front-7 personnel.
3) You will double team our NT on every play. If you don't, it's suicide. I bet my firstborn that you will.
4) We blitz like the QB is a supermodel giving out handy-j's, and to think that you will be running your plays unimpeded by our blitz package, you're mistaken. There is a greater than 50% chance we will be bringing 5, if not 6, on the blitz any given play, and it could come from anywhere.
So, while I am quite impressed with your understanding of defensive schemes, you're description is of "bend but don't break", "wait and react" type defenses, and I'm wondering if you guys even see people play modern, attacking, oh-my-god-where-are-they-coming-from defense in the Big10. You guys may be in for a rude awakening. You're scenario was laughable in it's outdatedness, but I commend you're knowledge and effort.
Alabama pass offense vs. UM pass defense - advantage Alabama
UM rush offense vs. Alabama rush defense - huge advantage Alabama
If this game is within 3 scores I will be surprised. Not trying to troll of anger any of you, I just know both teams very well, and Michigan is 2 years away from being able to compete in this game.
To each his own, but there is no way you will convince me Alabama has an advantage passing against UM. I know Alabama has 5 star recruits waiting in the wings, but I will still give Denard and Fitz the advantage there (because I'm a homer). And unless UM turns the ball over 5+ times (which could happen), I see no way Alabama wins by 3 scores. They only beat PSU 27-11 last year, and Alabama was much better last year than they will be this year, and PSU was worse last year than UM will be this year. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, and mine is that Alabama is not that much better than UM. That is why they play the game though.
LSU had the best secondary I can remember and Bama's WR's tore them up.
Tore them up? McCarron did throw for over 200 yards but no TD's. That is hardly getting "tore up".
is pretty amazing. Michigan's defensive backfield was tremendously improved year over year but, and I mean this honestly with no trolling intention, no one in the UM D backfield would see the field for LSU. The Bama WR's might not hark to the days of Julio Jones but they will get theirs especially when the D loads up to stop Eddie Lacy. The play action is going to brutal for UM, being put into 1 on 1 with no help over the top is going to lead to a few big gainers.
Of course, you never know what could happen. Lacy could fumble a few times, tipped balls etc. I'm not saying it's a lock but Michigan is going to need some serious breaks to walk away with that one.
False. We lost 2 of our top receivers - Maze and Hanks. We lost no one else on the receiving core. We did lose our H-back, and that will hurt. With regard to our passing attack, losing Maze, Hanks, and Richardson will not hurt at all. Losing the H does. Our passing attack should be better this year than last, as should our O as a whole. The D is what will take a step back.
Minnesota beat Iowa, We Beat Minnesota.... we should have beaten Iowa... but we didn't.
This logic isn't always the best to use. I love your passion and i hope you're right, but I really don't see the advantage rushing. If we are effective rushing the ball, we will win this game. That I will give you.
I thought in both games against Penn State, Saban clearly took his foot off the pedal, because he didn't want to blow out a Paterno-coached team (how much 9 months can change things). That game was 27-3 in the 3rd quarter and Alabama went full puntasarus.
After our struggles running against Va Tech last year, I don't see how you can give us the advantage in the rush offense against an Alabama defense that's far better than Va Tech's (Clemson had just torn them up, too). Molk was hurt, sure, but now he's gone.
I do think we have a chance, but it revolves around winning the turnover battle significantly and picking up a cheap score somehow (defensive TD, fumbled punt, very short field, etc) which do seem to occur far more commonly early in the season.
Granted, I'm a Bama fan, so my opinion is colored, but I do not think Michigan has an advantage in any category in this game. That is not to say you can't win it, as you most definitely can. It's a team sport, you guys play bigboy football, and you wil bring your share of playmakers to Dallas. Alabama will have to play well to win as Michigan is a darn good football team.
However, saying that Bama was much better last year than we WILL BE this year is silly, and I take exception to your future-definitive verb choice. Granted, I do not think our D will be as good as last year, given that I think that D was the best college D ever assembled. However, I will be shocked if we don't have a top-5 defense and will eat my shoes if we're not top-10.
We should also have the best Offense Saban has ever assembled. We will have arguably the best Oline in CFB with potentially 3 first round draft picks in next years draft. The only weak links I see us to have is not having a true H-back as of this sentence, inexperience at Outside Linebacker, and maybe kicking a low percentage from beyond 50. Other than that, Bama is stacked everywhere.
One more thing, thinking that we will have a drop off this year because we lost Richardson and several defensive starters would be faulty logic on your part. We have 4 tailbacks I'm confortable with, 2 that are proven against SEC competition. Secondly, while we lost 7 starters on D, we also return 6 starters. I know that sounds weird, but you can't solely look at our base D or solely nickel and count starters. We return a load of experience and talent on D. We have the best group of wide recievers, as a group, that have ever resided in Tuscaloosa. Our Tight End will play in the league, and our QB is a returning starter and very good. We don't turn the ball over much. Every single starter in the secondary is comfortable in man on an island and in zone. Our size on both sides is NFL quality, and we have depth abound.
Put simply, I'm taking nothing away from Michigan. You guys are a solid football team that can beat anyone on the right day, and are better than many "experts" think. Hoke has you guys in the right direction, and I thnk he's doing it the right way. But, as far as I can see it, Bama is absolutely loaded. We could win them all or lose a 2-3 - that remains to be seen, but we are absolutely loaded.
While i think Alabama covers, there are people who get paid well over a million dollars a year (some in the tens of millions) who analyze point spreads, and they indeed would not be shocked if the game was within 3 scores.
And while i do think Alabamas rush defense is extremely good (possibly best in the nation), if Borges plays his cards right, Michigan WILL move the ball against Bama far better than you believe. Denard as a rusher is truly special, and they key here is to use him stratigically as a decoy more often than not (for example, throw back screens to Fitz against an aggressive, relentlessly pursuiant Bama defense targeting Denard the opposite side will go for HUGE chunks of yardage).
Bama wins, but with a senior Denard/junior Fitz, this is probably the best rushing backfield in the nation this year (not counting the OL) and possibly/arguably the best in Michigan football history outside of Willie Heston by himself..
Its going to be up to Borges calling this game correctly (timing) and execution.
While I agree that Robinson is the most dangerous player in college football, I disagree that Robinson and Fitz give you the best rushing attack in the nation (even excluding Oline, which is ridiculous). Against teams with not-awesome defensive talent and schemes, they look other-worldly, but I guarantee than Alabama isn't scared of Robinson's speed and will not bite on fakes and be out of position because of his talent.
We're likely going to play him staright up, and play the play - not the personnel. Alabama doesn't play that piddly-queer, reaction-only, please-don't-hurt-us, defense I saw so often in Big10 games last year. We will attack, and your O will have to try and figure out what we're doing just as much as our D against your O. Also, Fitz is good, but that's it. He'd be 4th or 5th best tailback in the SEC.
| 2011 Season |
Alabama Pass Offense |
Michigan Pass Defense |
| G | 12 | 12 |
| Att/G | 26.9 | 28.8 |
| Comp/G | 17.8 | 16.8 |
| Pct | 66.3 | 58.4 |
| Pass Yds | 2563 | 2262 |
| Y/G | 213.6 | 188.5 |
| TD | 16 | 12 |
| INT | 8 | 9 |
| 2011 Season | Michigan Pass Offense | Alabama Pass Defense |
| G | 12 | 12 |
| Att/G | 21.8 | 26.4 |
| Comp/G | 12.1 | 12.8 |
| Pct | 55.3 | 48.3 |
| Pass Yds | 2249 | 1396 |
| Y/G | 187.4 | 116.3 |
| TD | 22 | 6 |
| INT | 16 | 13 |
| 1st Down | 90 | 62 |
I compiled these for purposes of the discussion the passing game. Based on last years regular season statistics, you would rightly think that the passing game will be an uphill battle for Michigan, but as others have mentioned, we have an offense that uses Dilithium and some degree of option legerdemain thanks to Al, so I still believe we will have moments where we do in fact faze their defense now and again.
The numbers on rushing defense versus rushing offense are actually somewhat more even, so there is potentially an answer on the ground, and I definitely think that if we don't commit elementary mistakes that we stay in this game. As has been noted, they do have a young secondary, and there is certainly an opportunity to exploit that lack of experience if we get some solid WR play or get Fitz past the D-line with some good O-line play.
I would agree with Steele in that our outlook for this game is not rosy, but I think we can put up a decent fight all the same. By the numbers, Alabama is better on both sides of the ball, but strange opportunities can present themselves in the course of the game, as we all know.
I disagree a bit here ->
"As has been noted, they do have a young secondary..."
While we will have 2 new starters in our base secondary set, 3 new starters in Nickel, and 4 in Dime, it's not quite that black and white. I admit that we're not as experienced as I'd like us to be, but we're not as inexperienced as you might think and I don't think it will be such an exploitable weakness.
Starters:
Left Safety: Robert Lester - 3year starter
Right Safety: Vinnie Sunseri - First year starter
Right Corner - Dee Milliner - Returning starter
Left Corner - John Fulton/Deion Belue - First year starter
Star (Nickel Back) - John Fulton/Deion Belue - First year starter
Money (Dime back) - Ha'Sean Clinto-Dix - First year starter
Regarding first year starters, Vinnie played probably half of our defensive snaps last year, and despite being technically a first year starter, he has loads of experience and is a leader in his second year. John Fulton is low on game experience, but has been in the system for 3 years and by all accounts knows the D backwards and forwards and has simply waited his turn. Belue is a JUCO transfer who, by all accounts, will be a strength rather than a weakness, and may take over the starting corner spot with Fulton sliding to the Nickel. None of the aforementioned players are low on size, speed, or talent.
Put simply, given the experience of some of the "inexperienced" guys coupled with returning our signal-caller (Lester) and #1 corner, I think we'll be ok. I am in no way worried about your passing game. Michigan does not have a single WR that scares me one-on-one, nor am I worried about them as a group. Robinson has a cannon, but he just as likely thread thread the needle into Michigan's or Bama's hands. I like the matchup.
I think our running game v. their run D would be a push if not a slight advantage for them.
I think Steele is wrong, Bama is not going to throw for 245 yards. Unless we jump on them early, they'll just do what they always do and try to control the game with their ground game and their defense. My best guess is that we lose 24-14 or 24-17.
Flash Dilithium headed for He16man. Second year in program, not gonna pass off the back foot but will step into throws.
Factiods that may only interest Peter King and me:
-- Borges has some history of QBs making stunning turn-arounds in QB Eff in the second year. Poster child for that is the McNown (sp?) kid at UCLA. First year under Borges, he was, well, kinda horrible. Second year, lead country in QB eff.
-- The other 3 UM Heisman winners were all recruited by DIFFERENT coaches than the coaches under whom they won the trophy. I don't remember the coaches for Harmon, but Desmond was Bo-then-Gary, and Woodson was Gary-then-Lloyd. The guy who recruited Denard is not the coach anymore. So... does lightning strike a fourth time?
-- I have faith in the former DC of the Ravens, that our piecemeal DL will somehow not be completely bludgeoned by the Bama OL. The fact that Bama doesnt have an experienced RB helps on that front, a little.
-- DENARD'S SMILE!!!!
Also, he makes a mistake when he says that Michigan played Alabama in the 1999 Orange Bowl. It was the 2000 Orange Bowl (after the 1999 season).
Good catch! I noticed the same mistake.
Phil's research might have been enhanced by Michigan's record vs. Nick Saban.
3-2
Most of this information means little, its always nice to discuss. All that will matter is how the teams prepare for the game and perform during the game.
However, college football is a funny game. A few quirky bounces and couple of big plays can have huge impacts and dramatically change the momentum of these games. IMHO, these quirks and big plays are made more pronounced because this is the first game of the year with lots of nerves and uncertainty.
On paper, 'Bama wins.
Burn the paper this time.
thank you for this!
Michigan beats App State in 2007 on paper, on plastic, on stone, on steel. Yet they didn't. Quirky stuff does happen..
If everything goes by the book and we play them straight up we will lose.
However, if the coaches mix it up with the playbook on offense and create some turnovers on defense we can win.
One good thing is that Alabama can get caught off guard because since they know they are better they typically don't do anything special. They aren't going to come out passing on every down or running triple reverses or anything. They are going to run the majority of the time and run right at us in the trenches.
I'm pretty optimistic about our chances as I truly believe we have an x-factor under center that bama might not have all the answers for, but i think your assumption that bama can be caught off guard is a little naive. Their style of going right at their opponent is what it is because they have superior athletes and execute better than every team they play. That is their gameplan because they know they don't have to out think opponents, they can simply play better football and win more often than not.
the first game of the season. It's not like they are locking in to game film from last year and won't prepare for alternatives. In terms of defensive schemes, I would say Saban's ability to adapt to the situation is as good as anyone in CFB, many would say the best.
Bama has a 50-50 split between run and pass nearly every game. Saban publicly states this goal, and t's eerie how close they get to an almost perfect 50-50 split nearly every game. Thinking Bama runs it more than we pass it is not backed up by the evidence at all.
In every instance with NCAA 13 I've simulated, Michigan has won. If that game has ANY indication of how our players have matured, Our D-line isn't that great, however Roh and the LB's are SIGNICICANTLY better as is the Secondary with Countess and Kovacs...
In all reality, I see this game being a lot closer than people think... we shouldn't have won the VT game, and did- we shouldn't win this game and can...
I still think that VT goes WAY differently if Molk isn't hurt or at least if the injury happened a week before the game or something. We still probably should have played better, but that timing really made life difficult for the offense.
He seems to have contracted some sort of personality split.
But what exactly happened to RDT? I didn't check MGoBlog for a weekend and when I did on Monday, everyone wanted to stab this guy... I know he was loved one minute and hated the next, I just want to know the details.
Is there a link to the main post regarding this topic that someone can direct me to?
There was no real RDT. He was a made up character by another poster on the blog (Wolverine In a Bag).
http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/tom-kowalski-wins-pro-football-writers-award-my-tribute-killer
Cripes! And I thought I had too much time on my hands...
Thanks Schembo!
Yes, yes, any way you slice it on paper, Bama should win. But they won't. Book it.
I was in Hoke's office a couple weeks ago on a tour of the facilities (long story but trust me on this one) and Hoke has a roll-around poster board that has photos of 5 very large guys wearing red shirts - the Alabama O-line. - so you can see what the focus will be..
don't think I revealed any important secrets there. Trying to win on the line is a strategy which has occasionally been attempted.