Phil Steele Predicts Michigan / Alabama
Per @philsteele042:
My Computer for Bama/Mich calls for Bama to have a 196-155 rush edge, a 245-182 pass edge outgaining them (441-337) with a 31-21 proj score.
UM vs Bama Sept 1 - Dallas, TX Cowboys Stad. S/'99 the National Champ from the prev yr is 13-0 with an avg win of 45-13 in season opener.
This will be the first reg ssn gm between the two tms as the prior 3 have all come in bowls. UM won the L/gm ('99 Orange Bowl) 35-34.
Bama did not face a dual threat QB like D Robinson LY and has just 5 ret sts from the best D in CFB LY but they still have my #3 rated D.
UM is off 1st 11-win ssn S/'97 and is a veteran tm w/13 ret st'rs. The biggest matchup edge is UA's #1 OL vs a rebuilt UM DL w/1 ret st'r.
UM only faced 2 ranked tms away from home LY and were outgained 710-434 in those but got a fortunate win over VT in the bowl.
Only once all yr in 2012 did Bama's D give up 2 TD's vs an FBS foe but that might happen here.
Still games like this are won up front at the LOS and Bama has the edges. Roll Tide 31-17!
When is the last time a defending BCS champion played a tough opponent in their opener?
I didn't look at all the scores, but most or all of those opening games were against cupcakes or marginal bowl teams. For instance, Auburn played one of the few close games in its 2011 opener after its BCS championship against a Utah State team that ended up 7-6 with a bowl loss to Ohio. Florida, on the other hand, defended its 2008 BCS championship against Charleston Southern and its 2006 BCS championship against Western Kentucky (7-5 with 6 wins against non 1-A teams).
So this is not much of a stat.
1998 and Michigan was head stomped by Notre Dame. Hopefully Michigan can return the favor to Alabama.
I don't speak Phil Steele. I need and interpreter.
Anything is possible with shoelace. But a ten point loss on the road vs. the most talented team in the country, I could live with that. Losing to MSU again would be a different story.
I am of the opinion Michigan would have a better chance at winning later in the season this is why. UM has to break in 4 brand new players on the defensive line. Every single projected starter will either be a new starter or in a new position. There is no way that those four will hold up on the 1st game of the season playing their postion for the first time. The only way I do not see Bama putting up buku points is if their passing just stinks and are unable to take advantage of UM putting 8 men in the box.
The 1st game of the season with 4 new position players on the line would be tough as is. But UM is going against one of the beslt Olines in college football. If the defense keeps the Bama offense under wraps, I will elevate Mattison from best Dcoordinator in college football to God.
I personally think UM would have a better chance later in the season as I am of the opinion that Pimkins could be a major contributor by game 3 or 4. That plus everyone being confortable in their new position would be huge. I think a player like DR will get his points regardless of the defense arrayed against him. So for me the outcome of the game rests on can the UM defense get off the field and not get road graded. Clearly a lot of the burden rests on Campbell stepping up.
I believe long term UM's defensive line will shore up as the season progresses. But asking three players to move to new positions and expecting an underachiever to put it together on day one is a bit much. However, a poster pointed out an intangible in that Alabama will be complacent and has a lot less to prove. UM could get that football momentum going. We know that regardless of talent football is a game that can be won by players of inferior talent if they play harder and more inspired then their superior but more complacent opponents.
I think you mean Pimpkins!
depends if Denard is going to try to arm punt his way to victory (defeat) or if denard truly does make the step to become even 75% of what RG3 was last year (we have a real shot of winning)
national title game pick last year.
Yeah, sure Phil.
Steele picked LSU and Alabama for the NC game and picked UM in the Sugar.
He showed his formula predicted LSU to win that game but he went on record predicting Alabama to win, prior to the season.
This is from August 2011.
http://blog.philsteele.com/2011/08/12/2011-12-bowl-projections/
Here is Steele talking about picking Alabama to win in 2011.
http://www.elevenwarriors.com/2012/07/12344/12-0-is-a-possibility-chatt…
Yeah, what a hack.
After phil's brilliant pick of Michigan going 6-6 and to the pizza bowl last year.......he has lost all credibility with me. That and his yearly love affair with oklahoma going to the NC game.
We won 11 games in 2006. Also had a two-loss season in 1999.
He is truly the x-factor. A true duel threat QB is the hardest thing to defend in football. This will probably be the most dynamic athlete Alabama has faced since Cam Newton (I am not saying Denard is on that level). I could see this game being very similar to when Michael Vick and VT played Florida State for the National Championship. Vick kept them in that game because no one could catch him. If Denard truly does make a leap as a passer, there is not a defense in the c ountry that can truly shut him down. That being said, I dont think Michigan is going to be able to slow Alabama either. This game will be more high scoring than people think
I hope for a Michigan upset. I'm going to be watching this game with a Bama alumni and a few Michigan haters. Though I don't give the haters much respect as the two, one a ND fan and another a Ohio fan, couldn't get into the University of Minnesota, much less those schools.
It's not whether you win or lose. It's whether you cover the spread. 10 1/2, take the points.
Hey kids, get off my lawn, and can we write in Thomas Jefferson's English please!!
I do not understand the hate towards Steele. He does as good as anyone predicting the outcome often determined by teenagers. All he can do is look at the raw data where on average the roster turnover is 25% and the starter turnover rate is probably around 40%. If your going to hate Steele because of his predictions you might as well hate everyone else as I am not aware of any other organization that does a better job.
We all know we read predictions because we are starved for football and need something to fill in the time when we get bored of recruiting. I take predictions with a grain of salt. The one item I do like about Steele is he does try to introduce variance instead of just one hard number. Not all 8-4 predictions are equal. Ideally I would like to see someone mathematically define variance so we have a hard number to compare across teams. But predictions are hard with a sample space of 12.
The 1969 Ohio team was the greatest Woody ever assembled. They were heavily favored against the Michigan Wolverines.
Just some inspiration for you all. Games are not won on paper but on the field.
Alabama will have the advantage in the trenches and will probably win by a couple of TD's. However, if Michigan is able to get some key turnovers, Robinson can pass the ball well, then it could be a close win or loss. I'm interested to see how we match up against a very talented team. However, having such a smash mouth game early the season, I'm concerned about injuries!