Just skimmed through the Phil Steele 2011 preview magazine and he's picking Michigan to finish 5th in the Legends Division and go to the Pizza Bowl in Detroit against Toledo. Not exactly where I want them to go. DISCUSS!
That would suck. Therefore I don't believe it.
It wouldn't be the first (or last) time he was wrong.
If we play in the Little Caesars Bowl, I will say this season is a disappointment. Call me a Scrooge, but I think we have too many guys coming back and think this team comes back hungry enough to make the system transitions much easier than they were in the RR era. I'm still shooting for a new years day bowl.
So no bowl then? There are no New Years day bowls this season.
Good Catch, you are right...I think the overall point still stands.
Gah, I must have missed this one somewhere. No New Year's Bowls? So we can watch NFL games that probably wont have any meaning....Gah.
Bcs bowl or bust
I read that and was like WTF. Only bright side would be it's close to go to and a rematch against Toledo. But I don't think the players would enjoy a "vacation" to Detroit.
Well in the Fab Five documentary we learned being in Detroit is better than going to Europe.
edit: fixed wording
Clearly he's talking about the Michigan tackle badminton team.
If Michigan even squeaks by to bowl eligibility they sill not play in the Little Caesars bowl. Michigan is too big of a draw for both TV and attendance to play in such a low tier bowl. If we had the same record as MSU or pretty much any other B1G school they would put MSU in the pizza bowl.
Exactly, and actually we could be picked over a team within one win. No way in hell are we going to the lowest B1G bowl even at 6-6.
Also, no way in hell are we going 6-6.
Not only that, it's possible (likely) that OSU is bowl-banned this year, moving every B1G team behind them up a spot. It's likely that the B1G doesn't even fill all of its bids, meaning no B1G team is stuck in this bowl.
The only possible way UM would end up in the Pizza bowl is if they were the only team in the B1G to finish 6-6. While I don't expect UM to be competing for the Legends division in 2011, I would be surprised if they only finish 6-6 and even if that unlikely scenario occured, I expect at least one other team would probably also finish tied with UM and that team would be relegated to the Pizza bowl, not UM.
Oops double post. Sorry
Your rational thought is not appreciated. I like to believe we will win every game from now on. Don't crush my dreams anymore.
I agree with the growing pains but I do think we will do better then the pizza pizza bowl.
Unfortunately i'm going to have to agree with you...i think the offense will struggle somewhat and don't understand why more people aren't talking about it
We don't talk about it because the grumpy people on this board neg bomb the shit out if it. Some people just can't take off the maze glasses.
is, because it's the off season. People are filled with hope and optimism. Right now we are all feeling good about recruiting, and the future. There will be plenty of time to worry later.
if the worst case scenario ends with me getting to see another game in person, 15 extra practices and a sold out ford field with 75,000 um fans, i am ok with that.
I hope Michigan will be better than Mr. Steele predicts.
Phil Steel fucks platypodes bareback.
think this comment is idiotic.
But the other 3 power ratings give props for pluralizing platypus properly.
Sorry. You're right. What seems funny after two quick post-work drinks doesn't register in the same way an hour later.
It happens to the best of us!
6-6 could easily happen.
We should be be prohibitive favorites at home against Western, Eastern, and Minnesota and strong favorites at home against Purdue and San Diego St. 6-6 would mean that we either lose at least one of those or go 1-6 out of ND, @NW, @MSU, @Iowa, @Illinois, Neb, and OSU. If the offense doesn't regress and the defense shows only as much improvement as you would expect from the overall increase in experience (i.e. the new scheme doesn't help), you'd think we would at least be competitive in all of those games and probably favored to win some of them.
We were 7-5 last year and have what looks like an easier schedule this year: Neb is on it but PSU and Wisc are off, and OSU and Iowa look to be down. If the team regresses after losing only Mouton, Schilling, and a handful of unremarkable part-time starters and backups it would rank as one of the all-time worst coaching jobs. Steele seems to think that our coaches are idiots, that the offense will suck because we'll try to run Wisconsin's offense with spread and shred personnel and our defense will suck because it always does. I'm looking forward to seeing this team make him look like a fool.
I've learned the past few seasons not to take anything for granted. The five games you mentioned are very winnable but are not locks. I wouldn't be ecstatic with 6-6 but transition years seem to be really unpredictable and making some type of bowl (and winning it if it is lower tiered) would be a good start to the new era and a sign of progress in the right direction.
then, no link never happened.
I think what the article was SUPPOSED to say is that Phil Steele just wants to go to Little Caesar's himself. He appears to be on an all Pizza-Pizza diet, so this would make sense . . .
Sounds like a 7-5, 6-6 type of prediction to me.
David Brandon, former Domino's CEO, would love a trip to the Little Ceasar's Bowl. Not!
I'd like to go to that bowl regardless of who's playing. I've never been to a bowl before.
Kiiinda would prefer not to see us playing in it though (I think I might've said that in 2009 and too, and, well, yeah...)
a Bowl full of Little Ceasars. I curse you Phil Steele!
Little Ceaser's Bowl maybe, but Toledo?? What?
Imagine the possibilities!
If it's either the LCPB or no bowl, I'd cart my ass to Detroit and eat some pizza to watch a Michigan bowl game gladly. The extra practices are good for the team.
No way we go to such a low tier bowl game..I say gator or outback bowl (I know im optimistic)
Phil Steele is purely a numbers guy. All of his projections are based off last year's stats vs. the norm. He just plugs in the numbers, using the formulas he has tended to favor, and whatever it spits out, that's what he goes with.
Of course, it never really works out that way. I don't know where he had Auburn last year, but they were not picked to even win their division in the SEC. But it's hard to know which teams will achieve beyond the statistical norms.
The other thing to remember about Steele is he lives in Akron. So not only is he an Ohio guy, that means he's probably seen a lot of the Michigan defense for the past three seasons and it was such a lowly rated unit, he can't see it rising up that much statistically in one season.
Based on the trend that brought us to today -- the three worst defenses in school history for three consecutive years -- it is hard to argue with him at this point. Hopefully, what we see on the field this fall is a pleasant surprise.
Somehow he predicted Michigan would make the Gator Bowl last year.
Phil Steele - his website looks like it was created by a crazy doomsday conspiracy theorist.
I only see ND, Wisc, Iowa and Neb as possible losses. 8-4 at the worst. Anyone who thinks we are losing to MSU and OSU this year is going to be wrong.
SDSU, NW, Iowa, and/or Illinois could easily be tough games. All have at least some talented players in systems to which they are accustomed...I'm not even assuming a victory over Western.
Forgot about this away game. If we lose to SDSU I'll flip to 4-8.
I don't think Illinois will be too tough a game (knock on wood) with Leshoure out of the picture.
Plus a heck of a DT in Corey Liuget.
eat better this year than pizza.
Funny it would seem he is grossly incorrect because I have us playing in the Rose Bowl. What a salacious accusation that we would possibly be considered to play in such a plebeian quality bowl.
Here's to incredibly unrealistically optimistic expectations.
I think that that prediction is just downright absurd, and no value should be put into it. Honestly, i think people here at mgoblog have a lot better idea on what bowl Michigan will go to than Phil Steele does.
people here at mgoblog have been known to prognosticate through maize and blue colored glasses.
Phil Steele is a born-and-bred Buckeye fan, so he may not be totally objective about Michigan. I know that he probably tries to remove all bias from his opinion, but at some fundamental level he probably can't help taking a more pessimistic view of UM's football team.
Well that would be extremely disappointing if this were to happen..
agree with aawolve........this year will not be great by any means. We are still under-talented on defense regardless of how many are returning players. Offense will be spotty against good, physical teams. Any serious run of injuries to almost any position will bring even more pain.
6-6 seems very likely. There are a few teams that on paper....may just spank us pretty good.
Our time is coming though....we will be back in the very near future.
That said, for us to fall to this bowl, we would HAVE to be 6-6. If we were 7-5, we would get a much better bowl...look at last year. And even if we were 6-6, we would basically have to be the ONLY 6-6 team in the Big 10 as well.
I don't think we'll go to that bowl, because we're too attractive not to go to a higher one, but that record is possible. Last year's team was fortunate to go 7-6, as sad as that sounds. We went 4-0 in games decided by single-digits. Next year our luck in close games could turn. We might not get to play half the game against ND against a walk-on QB, or have an Illinois DB muff a game-clinching INT in overtime. It's possible that we could improve as a team and not even have it show in the overall record, if our luck in close games evens out.
While I agree that the 4 net close wins from last season is a concern, I would argue that our "luck" in that regard was balanced out by our "bad luck" in losing our 2 starting CB's and being forced to play multiple freshman in the secondary for an extended time period. UM might not have been in so many close games last season had the secondary situation not reached DEFCON 1. Fortunately, this year, it is unlikely UM will find itself forced to play any freshman in the secondary as there are multiple options that don't involve frosh.
I think a lot of UM fans are not fully realizing how much the defensive numbers will likely improve from last year due to 3 factors:
1) More experience -- especially in the secondary where we had two frosh starting for a good portion of the season.
2) Better coaching staff/philosophy -- Mattison is a better DC than GERG and he is being allowed to install the defense that he wants to run and knows how to run.
3) Slower paced offense -- no more "play like your hair is on fire" philosophy on offense. Just going back to a normal full-huddle offense will probably result in one or two fewer possessions for the opposing team's offense.
I fully expect (and I am a natural born pessimist) that UM will see its defense improve to giving up about 350 ypg and about 24 ppg. Not great defensive numbers, to be sure, but good enough to allow the team to win 7 or 8 games in the regular season.
as #1 in the Big Least. Wait until Tony G gets his teach on.....
Wow, I hope I'm not being unrealistic, but people would really be content with a 6-6 or 7-5 season? With the B1G POY returning, the entire offense from an already potent unit, and basically every important contributor (except for Mouton) on defense returning, plus the return of our best DB...
I could be overly optimistic, but I would set 8-4 as the most probable outcome.
I wouldn't exactly be content, but I think it's a possible outcome given that 1) last year's team wasn't even as good as its record indicated and 2) it's the first year in a new system. Many coaches - even some very successful ones - struggle in year one.
If Michigan fans are content with 6-6 season this year, then we fucked up in firing Rod and not giving him another year. Too many starters returning and somewhat better depth. Anything less than 8 wins would be a disappointment to me.
but i'll welcome the rematch next time we play Toledo. LOL
Brady Hoke will find out who his real friends are in Ann Arbor. Expectations are very high, perhaps unrealistically so, for lots of people.
It's such a tough year to predict. We have all the pieces neccessary to be awesome (lots of returning starters, heisman potential QB, defense that won't be entirely raw freshman thrown into the wood chipper), but a huge amount will be predicated on how brand new coaches can develop them and implement schemes that work with what we have. I have faith/optomism Hoke's staff can pull if off, but i would not be surprised by either 6-6 or 12-1.
Wait, a 12-1 season wouldn't surprise you? Love your optimism but that would shock me, In a great way of course.
but only plays 13 games total, I will eat my shorts. That means they'd have to finish 2nd in their division after going 11-1, thus missing the Big Ten Championship game.
I think there's no doubt that the defense and special teams will be better than they were last year. The only way I see us going less than 8-4 is if the offense takes an enormous step back. I really hope this is not the case. I understand that the coaches want to run more of a prostyle system, and this is what they understand and have done for years. However, the iso play, and play action variant of it do not seem to be overly complicated plays. I would be extremely disappointed if we not take advantage of a large component of what was successful last year on offense.
...but do not understand how som many experts do not regard Michigan in having a better season this year then last year. This team if RR was back would have been probably an 8-9 win team. Yes, I understand there is a new coach with a different style of offense for the best offensive player on the team, but you also have a new style of defense that would be better suited for the defensive players. The style of D under RR did not work not because there wasn't talent there, but because of its style in a conference with toughness.
I think U-M will be an 8-9 win team this year and go to a bowl game near New Year's Day, or on New Year's Day. I predict William Campbell will explode (in a positive way) in this new defense which mears the traditional defenses' at Michigan prior to RR era.
There are three factions that seem to have a voice here....
1. Michigan Coaching Change = BCS glory berth this year oh my god dream season!
They are being ridiculous.
2. Michigan Coaching Change = Oh sweet tripple titted christ, its the apocalypse coming down above our heads! the entire midwest is going to be swallowed up one great squall of failure (1-11) oh god!
This is just as retarded.
3. Michigan Coachign Change= Let's see what happens here.
We aren't going to the Rose Bowl. (Would love to be wrong, here). And we're not going to the Pizza Bowl.
Why don't we all (columnists who are continually wrong but still find some amazing way to keep their jobs) take a few breaths and wait until we've at least take the first snap of the season before we start reserving bowl game tickets?
My outlook is fairly simply. I hate to bring up Rich Rod again, as I know people are sick of hearing about him, but I believe he would have won 9-10 games this year, had we fully committed to him.
I believe you have to lower your expectations a bit with the scheme change, however I still expect us to be at least an 8 win team. I am behind Brady Hoke 100%, however I don't think we should give him a free pass on this year.
after last year beating Utah (coming off 40 pt jaw dropping loss to TCU), USC (without Matt Barkley) and Miami (FL) in 34 degree weather. I do think the Irish will beat everybody next year except USC, Michigan, Pittsburgh and Stanford, so 8-4 plus a bowl win means 9-4 next year for Notre Stain. This is because "everybody else" on ND's schedule is a cupcake.
For Michigan I don't like 3 of the 4 starting games this season (WMU, SD State, Notre Dame) because I think all of these teams will be a lot better than anybody thinks and definitely better than last year. I don't like any of Michigan's road games this year either (NW, MSU, Iowa, Illinois). That's before some big home games at seasons end vs. Nebraska and tSIO.
I'll bet you have amassed a lot of points on your favorite nd board.
I would put South florida as a potential upset for notre dame.
Especially given that ND is 1-4 against the Big East over the past three seasons.
South Florida will beat ND.
They must have realigned all the bowl tie ins in the offseason. The PIzza Bowl is where they send a team that is in serious contention to win a Big Ten Championship in November? Because that's what Michigan does and will do.
This is insulting to Michigan. We will definitely be playing on New Year's Day.
The Rose Bowl isn't on New Year's Day this year.
Just from having an older team and a better schedule, not to mention the severely decreased likelihood of Ohio or MSU going 11-1 again, Michigan should be at least 8-4 this season. That should get them a lot warmer climate than Detroit for the bowl season. I'm hoping for the Outback Bowl.
Leave the pizza to MSU.
8-4 would definitely mean a better bowl. Steele also mentions in his magazine that he has some expectations that UM goes 8-5 this season and makes a BCS run in 2012. He really likes teams who go 8-5 in year 1 coupled with the 2nd year in a new coaches system
I know Steele is very respected and has been putting this out for YEARS, but I'm sorry I just don't buy into his hypothesis' on teams. He has alot of knowledge yes, but his predictions are some of the most limp noodle vanilla predictions out there. I firmly believe there is zero critical thinking in his and his staffs write ups, and it shows.
I was joking with my friend I was with at the store today before I picked up the magazine, "watch Steele put Michigan in the pizza bowl" and sure enough.
I say michigan has a 9-3 season with losses at Northwestern, Iowa, and Nebraska.And plays arkansas in the outback bowl.
The way HOKE SMASH we are guaranteed to go to a better bowl game. Defense SMASH, Offense SMASH, OSU is going down too. We'll finally smash all three arch rivals.
Former domino's ceo Dave Brandon will never have UM playing in the little Caesars anything.
Also - some sort of Gittleson reference
It has been said..
Phil Steele is absolutely wrong about the M record this year. He is also dead wrong in his analysis of turnovers (but that is another matter to be dealt with later this summer).
Obviously this was "predicted" before all the osu fiasco and Pryor leaving.
Even in a transition year, there are really only 6 possible losses on the schedule. IMHO even 9-3 with losses to MSU, Nebraska, and osu would be a horrible season.
for Michigan to be 9-3 and only finish 5th in the division standings.
FWIW: CFN has us finishing 2nd in Big Ten and going to Capital One Bowl on Jan. 2.
I like it.We have a favorable schedule and play almost all our games at home.I think we lose to northwestern and nebraska.
cool.. we won't have to play the games since phil steele already decided our outcome.
I guess it's time to reiterate my 9-3 prediction for this season, since Mr. Steele seems to be down on the maize and blue this year.
Just curious as to who the 3 losses are to in your opinion.
Losable Games (IMO), not saying we are going to lose ALL of them, but these are losable:
Notre Dame - If Floyd plays (which is looking quite likely last I knew) then the situation is bad for Michigan. We have a scaled back offense and, despite a home-run hire at DC, a defense that returns 8 of 11 starters that finished 115th in FBS. Our defense probably (though not outside of the realm of possibility) won't take a quantum leap in just one year. The only reason we beat Notre Dame in 2010 is because Crist was out on that concussion. When he was in, Notre Dame's offense moved the ball at will and scored rapidly on us.
Northwestern - Persa is a great passer, we have a horrendous defensive backfield. He could easily throw for 400 yards on these guys if they perform at 2010 levels. Even if they improve some, they will still have trouble slowing down Northwestern's passing attack.
Michigan State - The most winnable (IMO) of the losable games. Yeah, that makes sense, hah. If anything, it's tradition for Michigan coaches to lose to MSU the first time they play them, every coach since Bo in '69 has lost to MSU their first try.
Ohio State - Despite the scandal there is still the best talent in the Big Ten at this school. We'll see.
Nebraska - Depends on how their Big Ten entry season goes. They could dominate, or they could go more of Penn State's route. They have a lot of talent and Pelini seems to really be bringing Cornhusker football back.
Plays for ohio state then we will beat them.Braxton miller is a whole other story.
First, let me say thanks for the brief breakdown of each team. When I read your first sentence my thoughts went to my handy-dandy pamphlet B1G schedule I've been taking notes on for a couple of months. As I look at it, it's already quasi-out of date: I boxed in the first five games of Osu's season, marking them "Tat 5". My "*results pending NCAA sanctions" still stands, though.
Anyways, I circled games for each team that IMO would be interesting, close-fought battles, or otherwise season-defining games. I suppose we have the seed of a diary here, but I'll try to be brief.
For Michigan, I picked ND, Illinois, and Nebraska as our losses. It's a coaching change year, and the new pieces will not quite be there yet in Week 2. Coach Mattison is on the record as saying that Michigan "will be a swarming defense wherever we line up", and seems to be fully supported by the staff and players at all levels. Assuming he is as good as advertised, I predict Michigan's average defensive rating will rise by 30 plus or minus 5 spots per year for the first two years. This will put us on pace to have a defense ranked in the top 50s or 60s going into year 3; I feel this is a reasonable benchmark for Michigan's current defensive philosophy, roster, recruiting trendline, and staff.
Michigan State is vulnerable IMO, or may AMHG strike me dumb. Northwestern is dangerous, but the tough home loss vs. ND will motivate the team to victory in their second night game of the season. This, of course, assumes that Denard/Devin and the O-Line will have a decent grasp of whatever concoction Coach Borges is brewing up by Week 6. Illinois scares me because of the way our games have gone since the Juice Williams era, and especially after the 67-65 affair. We're playing in Champaign, after another tough but successful trip to Iowa (I think Michigan will be clicking after beating Purdue, and Iowa is without Stanzi and friends).
Nebraska will be a tough pill to swallow, but Michigan will prevail against Ohio State. Michigan MUST prevail against Ohio State. We can't let this streak continue any longer, not after Tressel and his dirty shenanegins tarnished the good name of The Game. [unscrews secret hip flask; drinks Kool-Aid]
While I'm offering up my MGoCredibility as an offering to the masses, I pick Nebraska to win the B1G West and Wisconsin to win the B1G East and the B1G Championship. IMO their team is the most complete in the East this year. Illinois will also have a good year with Scheelhaas.
I predict that we finish between first and last of the Legends division.
Seriously, look at 2010 MSU -- their ceiling was around 8-4, 9-3 depending on who you asked, but they managed 11-1. Who knows.