Peters & Speight: Both Things Can Be True

Submitted by Inuyesta on
The confluence of Brandon Peters' success and Wilton Speight's struggles in the Spring Game has reignited the debate in the fanbase about Speight's role and future in the program. This debate has been going on, in one form or another, since the early days of Speight's recruitment. Back then it was Speight vs. David Cornwell and Michael O'Connor; a couple years ago it was Speight vs. "this dude's never gonna play; he should transfer"; last year it was Speight vs. O'Korn; and now it is Speight vs. Peters.
 
Thus far, Speight vs. Peters has been less about actual, realistic takes on each quarterback's skills and deficiencies, and much more of a referendum on Speight's 2016 season; which, predictably, means it has been a referendum on the disappointing end to last season. Two regular-season losses, both coming on the final play of the game. Four measly points the only difference between the historic and the merely good. It's almost impossible to be a fan and not get impassioned by that. But I think it is key that we keep our heads, even in the face of passion.
 
Here's something that is so blindingly, obviously true that in comes close to tautology, yet that some Michigan fans seem to have forgotten. In any complex system, every result depends on the combination of a huge variety of factors. They say "victory has a thousand fathers; but defeat is an orphan," but in reality, of course, every victory and defeat has not only a thousand fathers, but a thousand mothers, siblings, cousins, great-aunts, and butterflies whose flapping wings change the course of history. Asking "what caused X," in this context, is almost entirely fruitless. Everything caused X.
 
It is true, as Speight's defenders are saying, that he played well enough to get us to within a whisker's breadth of a Big Ten title -- that had factors and deficiencies entirely outside of his control gone a different way, the games we lost would have had a different outcome. It is also true, as Speight skeptics are saying, that he made critical mistakes that swung those games, and that better performances might have put those contests out of range of other deficiencies. Speight wasn't good enough. The running game wasn't good enough. The coaching and game planning weren't good enough. The defense and special teams weren't good enough. The injury luck wasn't good enough. And, particularly in one potentially decisive moment, the officiating wasn't good enough.
 
And the really interesting thing here is that, even though exchanges about this take the appearance of arguments, no one really disagrees. Everyone sees and acknowledges how Speight struggled in the big games at the end -- whether because of injury or otherwise, and everyone sees the strong numbers he put up in all the others. Everyone sees and acknowledges how a better, healthier offensive line might have enabled the running game to salt away leads late. The only disagreement is over which was most important; the determination of which is impossible, a fool's errand.
 
Is it Speight's fault we didn't win a national title last year? Of course it is. But also, not at all.
 
I don't know whether Speight or Peters should be our starting quarterback next year. There's no denying Peters looked better on Saturday, and I think it's clear he has, ultimately, the brighter future. It's also clear that he's still a redshirt freshman, and prone to the mistakes of a young player; he is not yet what it looks for all the world like he eventually will be. I am also painfully aware that, to date, I have been on the wrong side of every Speight debate. I wanted us to take David Cornwell over Speight in the 2014 recruiting class; whatever you think of Speight, it's clear his career has far eclipsed that of Cornwell, who transferred to Nevada and has yet to log a single statistic in college football. I thought Morris was ahead of Speight behind Jake Rudock in 2015; this proved wildly incorrect. I thought O'Korn was better and would beat Speight for the starting job last year; we all saw, in the Indiana game, just how far O'Korn was from being a viable quarterback. Each time I have gone against Speight in these arguments, I have been proven wrong; this fact humbles me as it should humble everyone now clamoring for Peters to take over. And so, I am unsure.
 
The only thing I am sure of is that re-litigating the past won't bring clarity to this discussion, not when the only past data on Peters are high school highlight reels and vague reports from practices we haven't seen. Tearing each others' heads off over where to place the blame for last year's near miss won't help; seeking to punish Speight for the disappointment might be easy, but it doesn't bring us any closer to truth. Keep your eyes on the prize.

DogTown

April 17th, 2017 at 3:59 PM ^

Longest snowflake post I've EVER seen! And better yet, it's up as a diary. A "diary" isn't supposed to be an actual diary (like the book with a lock on it) of what's in your head. Maybe mix in some analysis, some statistics... something, anything... that backs your argument. Actually, I don't think there's even an argument in there.

Inuyesta

April 17th, 2017 at 4:16 PM ^

The argument is that the back-and-forth dominating a lot of the Peters/Speight discussion -- the degree to which Speight is to blame for the team not winning the Big Ten/making the CFB last year -- misses the point and is unconstructive. 

If the post is misplaced in Diaries, then of course I'm fine with mods moving or deleting.

ijohnb

April 18th, 2017 at 1:57 PM ^

back and forth about Speight v. Peters is simply something to talk about.  When you are this deep in OT season, people just need something to discuss.  When the season comes, I think pretty much everybody assumes that the best QB will play.  Put another way, you are not seeing an actual debate about the topic, you are seeing people just fall back on it because they are running out of things to say.

It will actually get worse before it gets better.  Come July when the gems like "Prediction thread - Michigan's first play from scrimmage" come out of the woodwork you will long for the Speight v. Peters debate.

Starkii

April 17th, 2017 at 4:08 PM ^

Thanks, it's nice to see someone acknowledge that lack of certainty we have and how strong we often hold our opionions based on so little.

JClay

April 17th, 2017 at 4:09 PM ^

"[R]e-litigating the past won't bring clarity to this discussion," says the guy passing off a long-form snowflake post as a diary.

Longballs Dong…

April 18th, 2017 at 2:29 PM ^

yes, this place can be overly harsh, but I don't understand what I'm reading. it basically said football is complicated so don't bother discussing it. But then, the OP makes a definitive conclusion about a historical performance -Peters definitely looked better. He just did exactly what he spent 9 paragraphs saying we pointless. Did Peters look better? yeah, maybe, but he was getting less pressure and playing with different players. As we have seen qb performance is largely dictated by the defense they face. I just don't know what the objective was or why I read it. If the suggestion is not to debate sports, I think this is posted in the wrong place.

mgowill

April 18th, 2017 at 4:07 PM ^

I agree that this IS the place to discuss and debate sports.  I've enjoyed reading (some) people's opinions on Peters vs Speight.  I think for me it comes down to this -

2014 Wilton Speight - #22 pro style QB, #453 overall

2013 John O'Korn - #32 pro style QB, #635 overall

2016 Brandon Peters - #6 pro style QB, #61 overall

Last year I watched highlight tape of O'Korn and got hyped up.  I was on the O'Korn hype train.  Who is this Wilton Speight kid?  There was no tape to watch for Speight, so there were only crumbs coming in from practice.  You had to take the word of the source at face value, and even then when the first game came around - it still wasn't 100% confirmed that Speight would be your started.  (It was probably 95% confirmed based on the insider reports and was only going to be O'Korn if something really weird happened.)  I kind of shrugged and said well this kid must be good because Harbaugh(!) and that O'Korn kid sure has a fancy tape playing real live college football.  Let's do this.

As the season went on, there were some really great moments for Speight and some not so great moments for Speight.  Analysis was done on this blog checking to see if he was good, great, just okay, or bad.  It turned out that up to October he was like a B+ type QB.  #17 out of 66 P5 quarterbacks.  Tried to find the link to the post, but no luck.  I did find this comparing him to the Michigan great quarterbacks though after six games in...

http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/comparing-speight-michigan-greats

Then by early November we started to see things like this from Brian...

http://mgoblog.com/content/joe-flacco-question

Summary: Wilton Speight is Joe Flacco poetic or something.  People were starting to think that maybe this guy could keep improving and we'd have a shot at winning in the playoffs.  Playoffs?

November 12th Speight was horrid versus Iowa with barely more than 100 yards,  Doom was the theme and the party hats were put back away.

November 14th it was announced he was out with a shoulder injury.  It was reported that he would be out for the regular season.  Some people thought, you know what - that O'Korn kid has a spectacular tape from playing real live college football and I'd bet he could have thrown for at least 250 on that stupid Iowa team.  Let's do this!

We got to see John O'Korn at home versus Indiana and it was clear why he did NOT get the starting job.  It was Yakety Sax out there with him running full speed away from the line of scrimmage with his back turned to the people chasing him.  A QB he did not look like.  If not for De'Veon Smith putting the team on his back before the snowstorm broke out, putting us up by enough that IU would not be able to see or play anything resembling football for the remainder of the game, I dunno man - we could have easily lost to Indiana.

So then we trotted out Speight versus Ohio State with 243 lbs of gauze wrapped on his shoudler because that is better than - whatever that was last week versus IU at quarterback.  Should have won that damn game and aside from the image of the extra wrapped shoulder we all got to see him fumble right at the goal line.

Florida State was a decent performance considering he was under pressure as soon as his hands touched the ball.  The theme there though was the same theme that caused people to even run analysis and question why he was our starter or if he should be our starter - he missed game winning passes by miles and miles.  Did it at Iowa.  Had the ball in his hands versus Florida State at the end of the game too.  Smith was blindingly open and Speight didn't see him.  

Fearless leader had this to say in his First Look 2017..

Probably Wilton Speight. Speight's 2016 did not have the clear takeoff narrative that Jake Rudock did. He was great for a couple games early, then bad, then indifferent, then awesome after the bye week until he turned into a pumpkin a third of the way through Iowa. He was terrific against Ohio State despite an injury that seemed to prevent him from throwing it downfield whatsoever... except for two turnovers 100% on him that lost the game. He gets an incomplete for the Orange Bowl since every time he dropped back he was beset by hounds instantly.

 

It would be much easier to draw an upward arrow if he'd packed the bad stuff in early and then got a lot better; unfortunately that is not the case. I'm still a Speight optimist for three reasons:

 

1. Harbaugh. This should be self-explanatory but if you need a refresher here's the QB season preview.

2. Speight seems to have the hardest thing down: pocket presence. His ability to turn garbage into first downs is exceptional for a guy his size.

3. His good periods came after an opportunity to take a breather and focus on the things Harbaugh was coaching him to do. Speight was hot at the beginning of the season, after the bye, and after he missed the Indiana game. As we go along here he should be more that guy than the one who forgot and reverted to high school/Borges stuff when the heat got turned up.

 

To the author of this post...

There was always just that something about Speight that couldn't be explained away by stats and advanced metrics.  It was just what you saw with your eyes and experienced as a fan.  So you'd come here and talk about it.  Sure if this or that had happened it would have changed the outcome, but discussing some of those things gone different leads to some interesting discussions that go deeper than you're giving them credit for.

As per Peters, it's hard not to get excited for what he did on Saturday.  I don't think anyone here is out to rewrite history or the such.  I think it allows us to revisit our journey as fans and to reflect on how we feel based on those experiences.  

 

 

Bigku22

April 18th, 2017 at 1:58 PM ^

So......are we going to have one of these Peters/Speight threads per day until the season starts? I mean what a generic cliche word soup, at least give me something original if you're going to write 1000 words. 

pete-rock

April 17th, 2017 at 8:26 PM ^

Speight vs. Peters?  Speight, without question.

Speight is a returning starter and better now. Better is the sense of his understanding of opponents, game preparation, steadiness, leadership.  He will not "wow" people with his talent, and he will make some mistakes we wish he wouldn't. 

Peters has the "wow" talent.  But he is still a redshirt freshman.  Whatever we gain from seeing him throw 30-yard zingers on a rope, we lose the experience that a young offense needs.  If Peters starts this season, he will make freshman mistakes.  He will be better at the end of the season than at the beginning, but there will be mistakes.

It's simple.  Take advantage of experience.  Start Speight.  Give Peters plenty of time at backup.  After the season, let the redshirt junior Speight earn his degree and give him a firm handshake and a pat on the back.  Start the Peters era when he's a redshirt sophomore, with an additional year in the program, actual game experience, and a reduced chance at mistakes related to inexperience.

ijohnb

April 18th, 2017 at 1:58 PM ^

think he is saying that we just went through those growing pains with Speight to get them out of the way, so why would we want to relive those kind of mistakes again one year later.

In reply to by ijohnb

Indiana Blue

April 18th, 2017 at 2:34 PM ^

oh yeah ... they don't believe facts if the facts lead to something they oppose.  Very few actually believe that Speight has a better future than Peters, but Peters red-shirted last year and people are scared of the unknown.  Funny thing is I remember walking into Michigan Stadium when Chad Henne was announced as the starter as a true freshman and the place was electric !

Go Blue!

Perkis-Size Me

April 18th, 2017 at 2:32 PM ^

Bad memories. And to think he almost made it two fumbles inside the five. Right before Michigan made it 17-7, he nearly fumbled again by tripping. Luckily he got the ball in DeVeon's hands right before he went down. Reminds me of the '09 OSU game where Forcier had, what, 4-5 turnovers, three of them inside OSU's 20? That game was so winnable too. 

Speight eliminates just one of those mistakes, Michigan beats OSU, probably beats Wisconsin again in Indianapolis, and they're heading to the playoff. Doubt they would've beaten Clemson, but they still get there. 

war-dawg69

April 18th, 2017 at 5:08 PM ^

Why not?. Didn't Clemson lose to Pitt and if N.C. States kicker can make a twenty yard field goal, Clemson wouldn't have even been in the playoffs. We should not have lost a game last year. We had the #1 defense in the country, so a lot of it is on Speight but all of it is on the offense period. Ya Bama was right behind us and their offense didn't move because of shotty Qb play. I think Harbaugh will make the right choice. My opinion is Peters has more talent. He is more athletic, Stronger arm by far and I think he is stronger physically. If he has the mental side of the game down and is even with Speight to me he is the clear cut starter. I think that both of them are more than capable, because if we can run the ball I see very few worries. I think our defense will be very physical and not fun to play against period. If Michigan can run the ball they will dominate every game with no turnovers. If we can run the ball consistently the play action pass with our play makers will be lights out. It is easier said than done but if Michigan can run the ball on EVERYONE it does not even matter who the QB is. If JiM Harbaugh is true to his word that the best player starts well IMO Peters will be the starting Qb for Michigan.

The Fan in Fargo

April 18th, 2017 at 7:41 PM ^

Speight is beyond growing pains kids. He is a redshirt junior just about. The last three games of the year weren't growing pains. It's called choking in the big game. You either thrive in that stage or you choke. Does a year starting under your belt make you able to pull those games out in the future and not make similar mistakes? I'd say it depends on the character of the person. A cold blood killer can pull it off. A lethal son of a bitch. Guys like Tom Brady. Speight is a good guy and a descent quarterback. He doens't however exude exploding confidence in those games all the way through and he isn't a killer. Let's hope his hot girlfriend knows how to turn him into a man before the Floriday game. 

chris16w

April 19th, 2017 at 12:56 PM ^

Being clutch isn't necessarily something that can be taught. In the spring game, Peters played his best when the outcome of the game was in balance. On the other hand, Speight got worse as it went along. That doesn't have anything to do with experience. There's no reason to believe that Speight won't also choke away the big games again in 2017.

hunterjoe

April 18th, 2017 at 4:34 PM ^

Or that someone behind them makes huge strides and overtakes them. I'm not going to say that Peters should play but rather think of it this way.  IF Speight only improved marginally why couldn't a guy with loads of more talent, coached by the best in the business make a very large leap and pass the incumbent?  It's possible.  

PopeLando

April 17th, 2017 at 8:55 PM ^

You know, it's possible to abstain from being involved in the QB debate going on. You have chosen to try to referee the blog, which a) rarely ends well, and b) seems pretty self-indulgent of you. The people you are condescending already know that their opinions won't change the outcome. But a whole new data point has come to light, and it does, in fact, lend clarity to the situation. We as fans have the right to these debates. But sure, you can be sanctimonious...

Inuyesta

April 17th, 2017 at 10:30 PM ^

You should reread the post. I didn't say the debate is bad; quite the opposite, I'm glad Peters is providing real competition. I'm saying that the part of the debate where Peters "supporters" (for lack of a better term) say "Speight is bad, look at how Iowa, OSU, and FSU went," and then Speight supporters say "no, Speight played well enough to win those games, it was X's fault we lost," followed by relitigation of 2016's ending, misses the point and is counterproductive. I also think it is worth putting this debate in its broader context, which is that the fanbase has been arguing about Speight since at least a year and a half before he arrived on campus, with many of us who have been his doubters (myself very much included) coming out wrong each time. If you find that to be condescending or "board refereeing," well, that's your prerogative.

Longballs Dong…

April 18th, 2017 at 2:38 PM ^

how is it counterproductive? I think it's safe to say everyone's goal is to have a winning team, I don't believe this debate will hurt the performance of the team. Unproductive, sure, but it's fun, it kills time, it's the singular reason this blog exists, it's why people like sports. I'm not seeing any over the top debates, just people with opinions.

The Oracle

April 18th, 2017 at 1:51 PM ^

I've only been around these parts for a couple of years, so maybe someone can explain the love of trashing a post that doesn't meet the subjective worthiness standard? It's as if people are offended that a valuable resource is being depleted, while the reality is they're all just opinions that will soon disappear anyway.

Bigku22

April 18th, 2017 at 2:06 PM ^

I strongly disagree. Message boards on most sites are filled with 90% trash. Here that ratio is much lower, in large part IMO due to the critique, and the high standards of mods/posters.

I don't see the issue if you post something terrible, people let you know about it. Plus most of the time the snarky comments are phenomenal.  

OwenGoBlue

April 18th, 2017 at 2:11 PM ^

It's just a mechanism for attempting to prevent more five paragraph essays. If the board was awash with these, the more "useful" stuff (stats, news, etc.) could get buried. Agree that the post reviews can get a bit cumbersome but I generally don't mind the "if you're going to write a livejournal it best be good" stance.

UM Fan from Sydney

April 18th, 2017 at 2:00 PM ^

I down voted simply because of the topic. After seeing how ridiculously long the post is, my down vote is twice justified. Way too long, OP.