Performances of past play-in teams

Submitted by turd ferguson on
I went through the past results for teams that won their NCAA Tournament play-in games.  The NCAA has been doing that since 2001 for at least one of the 16 seed games, but the first non-16 seed game was in 2011.  Here's how the winners of those games fared, setting aside the 16 seeds.
 
 
2011
 
12 Clemson (beat UAB in play-in game)
  • Lost to 5 West Virginia, 84-76
11 VCU (beat USC)
  • Beat 6 Georgetown, 74-56
  • Beat 3 Purdue, 94-76
  • Beat 10 Florida State, 72-71
  • Beat 1 Kansas, 71-61
  • Lost to 8 Butler, 70-62 (Final Four)
 
2012
 
14 BYU (beat Iona)
  • Lost to 3 Marquette, 88-68
12 South Florida (beat California)
  • Beat 5 Temple, 58-44
  • Lost to 13 Ohio, 62-56
 
2013
 
13 LaSalle (beat Boise State)
  • Beat 4 Kansas State, 63-61
  • Beat 6 Arizona, 76-74
  • Lost to 9 Wichita State, 72-58 (Sweet 16)
11 St. Mary’s (beat Middle Tennessee)
  • Lost to 6 Memphis, 54-52
 
2014
 
11 Tennessee (beat Iowa)
  • Beat 6 UMass, 86-67
  • Beat 14 Mercer, 83-63
  • Lost to 2 Michigan, 73-71 (Sweet 16)
12 NC State (beat Xavier)
  • Lost to 5 St. Louis, 83-80
 
2015
 
11 Dayton (beat Boise State)
  • Beat 6 Providence, 66-53
  • Lost to 3 Oklahoma, 72-66
11 Ole Miss (beat BYU)
  • Lost to 6 Xavier, 76-57
 
Not bad at all.  It's a small sample, but there's not much here to suggest these teams tire prematurely or anything.  Overall in the NCAA Tournament, 11 seeds win their 1st round games about one-third of the time.  These guys went 3-2, with a couple of nice runs in there.

azian6er

March 14th, 2016 at 9:47 AM ^

I'm simply glad we got in.  Also, barring any injury  - I am actually glad we get an extra game in before we potentially play the domers.  Can't hurt to get more practice against tournament competiton.

 

I really dont think fatigue plays as must of an issue in the NCAA tournament - moreso in the BTT as the games are on consecutive days.

Will be fun to watch for sure!

 

 

 

 

Soulfire21

March 14th, 2016 at 10:53 AM ^

Tulsa also lost to 14-17 Oral Roberts, as well as also losing to SMU and UConn.  While I don't disagree that it won't be easy, but Tulsa isn't the worst matchup for us.

schreibee

March 14th, 2016 at 10:23 AM ^

Sorry, I know I'm a bad guy, nay-sayer, stuck in the past, dickwad... but we're not IN until we beat Tulsa.
Lose that game and we DIDN'T make the tournament, far as I'm concerned.
Until and unless we play a game where you either pick us to win or lose on your bracket, we're not dancing. I don't care if they add another play-in game every year, they don't count as being "in" until they're on the brackets.
Inevitably, eventually every double digit seed will have to "play-in", more tv money for everyone. Then maybe it'll be on the brackets.

BigBlue02

March 14th, 2016 at 10:40 AM ^

Saying that doesn't make you a dickwad, it just makes you wrong. This play in game is most definitely in the tournament and it will show up in any record book that way. If we win it all, there won't be an asterisk next to our championship run just like there won't be one saying *not really in tournament* if we lose the first game

BigBlue02

March 14th, 2016 at 2:43 PM ^

As I said, you can think that all you'd like, but you are wrong. I'm not just saying we are in because it helps with recruiting or it helps me digest my cornflakes, I'm saying it because the rules were changed and the play-in games are part of the tournament. And I'm not saying it, the NCAA is saying it. We are a tournament team this year just like St. Mary's is not a tournament team. I'm sure VCU will give back their final four visit because they weren't actually in the field in 2011. I'm also sure back in the 80s, anyone who was then in the expanded bracket said they really weren't in the tourney because they weren't in the 53 spots it was the year before. A 68 team bracket is not going anywhere, so the sooner you realize that the better

BigBlue02

March 14th, 2016 at 9:59 AM ^

What's crazy is this will be the first tournament for more than 50% of our team. It's amazing what happens when you actually look at our roster and analyze it

BigBlue02

March 14th, 2016 at 11:22 AM ^

That's the crazy part-right now, it is 8 out of the 15 players that have never been in the tournament. If you take out injured players and walk-ons, it's 8 out of 11 players, and that includes Donnal, who was a true freshman that was redshirting their last tournament run. It is just a testament to Beilein. For everyone saying we underachieved this year, just look at the roster and tell me that a team this young won't get better.

Space Coyote

March 14th, 2016 at 10:00 AM ^

The play-in, I believe, helps in some ways. You've played a game already, thus, some of the nerves are out. You have experience shooting in a stadium that is a bit different than most college stadiums. You don't have the rust because you've been playing. In these ways, the team that has already played has some advantages. And with a day off in between, you get a chance to rest your legs a bit, an advantage not afforded in the conference tournaments.

While the team that plays the play-in winner has the advantage of scouting a little bit, that's likely only at the coach level and doesn't give a huge advantage, because they don't know which team they are playing until the play-in game is completed (while the play-in team already knows, but most of the scouting will be focused on the play-in competition).

Now, by the Round of 32 game, you may be a bit more tired, and many of the advantages are gone. But you also likely have quite a bit of confidence by then. By being the play-in team in that position, you really have nothing to lose. The other team has the worry of losing to "only a play-in team".

These just seem like some built in advantages of this current set-up. Certainly, the teams that are seeded higher are typically better teams, so the odds of winning may still be in their favor. But I think some of these other impacts even out the odds quite a bit, as past results have shown.

ijohnb

March 14th, 2016 at 11:04 AM ^

it looks like pretty much DOOM after the Sweet 16 matchup, but there is nobody really that we are in line to play until then if we keep winning that poses very much of threat to our biggest weaknesses.  I like the West Virginia game in particular as a potential matchup.  If you press Michigan you better be damn sure it works because if it fails it will fail in spectacular fashion.  i think we could actually open up a can on WVU if we make it that far.

In reply to by ijohnb

aiglick

March 14th, 2016 at 11:43 AM ^

To be fair we have, relatively, struggled with turnovers this year and passing is a noted issue. Those are drastic differences between our team this year and the teams that made long runs. Still, as a play-in low seeded team I like the early draw overall. If we make it to the Sweet 16 we will have earned it and at least it gives the program some positive buzz and a nice way to cap the season.

Here's hoping for many upsets except for our play-in game.

Space Coyote

March 14th, 2016 at 11:49 AM ^

It'll come down to how they're shooting. They aren't good enough this year (you note turnovers being up as one reason, which I agree with) to overcome poor shooting. If they shoot poorly, they could lose to Tulsa. But when they're on, they have enough shooters to beat anyone.

If it comes together and it starts to click for multiple guys (Robinson has a good game, Irvin is his former self, Walton is enough to keep defenses honest from 3, and then bench players can at least keep the pace with shooting), there are very, very few teams that can handle Michigan offensively, and a run isn't just possible, it's probable. But if they can't get consistent production out of multiple guys, this year's Michigan team isn't good enough to overcome it.

Shoot well = Sweet 16 run.

Shoot poorly = Early exit.

BigBlue02

March 14th, 2016 at 1:33 PM ^

Except they aren't. They are at 14.1% this year and 15.3% last year for TO per possession. And if you go back further than that, 2 years ago it was 14.5%, 3 years ago it was 14.2%, and 4 years ago it was at 17%. We were up last year from the 2 years prior, but this year we are right where we should be.

Space Coyote

March 14th, 2016 at 1:37 PM ^

I guess it's just a "feel" thing. Maybe it's bad turnovers or something that seems like it's making it stick out, because it feels like they are turning the ball over a bit more this year. But stats don't back that up I guess. Maybe it's because the rest of the offense isn't clicking the the level it has before. Interesting though.

lilpenny1316

March 14th, 2016 at 10:10 AM ^

the other teams either won or lost close games, which bodes well for us.  It's worth mentioning the Ole Miss (BYU) and BYU (Iona) played fast paced teams in their opening round game, which may have impacted their energy level in the first round matchup.  Not sure how fast paced of a team Tulsa is.

Coach Carr Camp

March 14th, 2016 at 10:28 AM ^

I have always thought there was something to be said about 1) playing a game and getting some of the tourny jitters out and 2) constantly hearing you didn't deserve in the tourny and playing with a chip on your shoulder

JCV16

March 14th, 2016 at 10:40 AM ^

we will have a really good chance - but with our limited bench I think fatigue is going to be a factor. I think our guys did really did give it their all agianst purdue but had no legs. 

evenyoubrutus

March 14th, 2016 at 10:57 AM ^

It's crazy to think that the entire season, and how we perceive it, will be defined in the next few weeks. If this team makes the Sweet 16 it will be considered a very good season. If this team makes the Final Four it may be thought of as one of the greatest Michigan teams in our lifetime. OTOH if they lose in the first round or the playoff game it will be a disappointing season as we all came to expect. This is why I never want the College Football Playoff to expand beyond 4 teams.

ijohnb

March 14th, 2016 at 11:37 AM ^

is what is crazy about the tournament.  Michigan State was very, very good this year, but it takes one hot game from Dayton or Syracuse to turn their season into an immense failure.  Same applies to us.  A week ago most were calling for Beilein's job.  Now imagine if we actually make a run.  Not only will his "seat not be hot" but his job will be even more safe than it was.